Carrara

Population growth drivers in Carrara are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Carrara's population is around 14,157 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,010 people (7.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,147 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,145 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 37 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 970 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carrara's 7.7% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (5.7%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 56.2% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and interstate migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence, where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Anticipating future population dynamics, a population increase just below the median of Australia's non-metropolitan areas is expected, with the area expected to expand by 1,530 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 10.7% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carrara recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carrara has experienced around 26 dwellings receiving development approval each year, totalling 133 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 61 approvals have been recorded. Given an average of 8.1 new residents per year arriving per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand is significantly outpacing supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers, while new homes are being built at an average value of $550,000, revealing that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Additionally, $15.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

Relative to the Rest of Qld, Carrara records about three-quarters of the building activity per person and ranks within the 14th percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing homes. This activity is also below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New building activity consists of 42.0% detached houses and 58.0% medium and high-density housing. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. With around 1134 people per dwelling approval, Carrara reflects a highly mature market.

Population forecasts indicate Carrara will gain 1,518 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Carrara has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 24 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Coomera Connector Stage 1 South, Nielsens Road Apartment Development, Serenity Estate - Gilston, and Carrara Stadium - 2032 Olympics Venue, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Carrara shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Carrara possesses a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of only 3.2%, and 2.8% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,865 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.8% below Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (67.8% compared to Regional Qld's 65.4%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 15.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in arts & recreation, with employment levels at 2.0 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.4% versus the regional average of 4.5%. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.8% and the labour force increased by 2.6%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Qld experienced employment growth of 0.7% and labour force growth of 1.0%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Carrara. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Carrara's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Carrara SA2 is below the national average, with the median assessed at $53,379 while the average income stands at $63,944. This contrasts with Regional Qld's figures of a median income of $53,146 and an average income of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $58,669 (median) and $70,281 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Carrara, between the 38th and 42nd percentiles. Income brackets indicate the largest segment comprises 32.5% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (4,601 residents), aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 31.7%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 36th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Carrara displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Carrara, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 52.1% houses and 47.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Carrara was in line with that of Regional Qld, at 32.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (39.5%) or rented (28.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Regional Qld average at $1,900, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $450, compared to Regional Qld's $1,655 and $345. Nationally, Carrara's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carrara features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 71.0% of all households, comprising 28.0% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 29.0%, with lone person households at 24.8% and group households comprising 4.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people is smaller than the Regional Qld average of 2.5.

Carrara shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Carrara trail regional benchmarks, with 23.2% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 30.4% in Australia. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 16.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (13.4%) and certificates (26.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents aged 15+ currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 32 active transport stops operating within Carrara, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 7 individual routes, collectively providing 1,033 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 356 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. Some 15.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 147 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 32 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carrara's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Carrara, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts show low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~7,149 people). The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 8.5% and 7.4% of residents, respectively, while 68.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 21.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2,982 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carrara was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carrara is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 13.1% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 29.5% born overseas. The main religion in Carrara is Christianity, which makes up 51.7% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Judaism, which comprises 0.3% of the population, compared to 0.1% across Regional Qld.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Carrara are English, comprising 30.2% of the population, Australian, comprising 22.8% of the population, and Other, comprising 8.5% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: New Zealand is notably overrepresented at 1.4% of Carrara (vs 0.9% regionally), Maori at 1.1% (vs 0.8%) and South Australian at 0.8% (vs 0.5%).

Carrara's median age exceeds the national pattern

The 41-year median age in Carrara matches Regional Qld's average of 41, while being somewhat older than Australia's 38 years. Relative to Regional Qld, Carrara has a higher concentration of 25 - 34 residents (14.2%) but fewer 5 - 14 year-olds (9.8%). Following the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 10.4% to 12.9% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 12.7% to 14.2%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 12.9% to 11.0% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 11.6% to 9.8%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Carrara's age structure. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 28% (561 people), reaching 2,575 from 2,013. Conversely, the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.