Londonderry (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Londonderry reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Londonderry (NSW) is around 4,184, reflecting a 160 person increase from the 2021 Census figure of 4,024. This increase corresponds to a growth rate of 4.0%. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, based on ERP data released by ABS in June 2024 and validated new addresses since the Census date, is 4,114. This results in a population density ratio of 115 persons per square kilometer. Since the census, Londonderry's growth rate of 4.0% is within 0.7 percentage points of the SA3 area's 4.7%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Natural growth contributed approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021, for areas not covered by the former data. Future population trends project an above median growth for statistical areas across the nation, with Londonderry expected to increase by 525 persons to 2041, reflecting an 11.5% total increase over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Londonderry, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Londonderry recorded approximately 4 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 23 homes. So far in FY-26, 2 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.6 people moved to the area for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, this intensified to 11.4 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply. Development projects averaged $483,000 in construction value, focusing on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

In FY-26, $353,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Londonderry has markedly lower building activity, 75.0% below the regional average per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Recent development comprised entirely of detached dwellings maintains the area's traditional low density character, appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 823 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet development environment. Future projections show Londonderry adding 483 residents by 2041, potentially leading to increased buyer competition and supporting price increases if current development rates do not match population growth.

Future projections show Londonderry adding 483 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Londonderry has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. Two projects identified by AreaSearch may affect this area: Box Hill Release Area Development, Box Hill Infrastructure Projects, New Richmond Bridge and Traffic Improvements, and Hambledon Park. The following details the most relevant projects.

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The employment environment in Londonderry shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Londonderry has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent. Unemployment rate in September 2025 was 2.8%.

It is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, with similar workforce participation at 70.0%. Home workership is moderate, at 24.6%. Leading industries include construction, healthcare & social assistance, retail trade. Construction is particularly strong, with an employment share 2.3 times the regional level.

Professional & technical jobs are under-represented at 3.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparison of working population vs resident population. In the year ending September 2025, labour force decreased by 3.9% and employment by 3.7%, reducing unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points. Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1% and labour force by 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Londonderry's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that median income in Londonderry is $55,231 and average income is $67,976. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated current incomes are approximately $60,124 (median) and $73,999 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows household income ranks at the 75th percentile ($2,158 weekly), with personal income at the 51st percentile. Income brackets show that 34.9% of locals fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category (1,460 people). A substantial proportion, 31.1%, earn above $3,000/week. Housing accounts for 15.1% of income and residents rank within the 76th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Londonderry is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Londonderry's dwelling structures, as assessed in its latest Census, consisted of 96.5% houses and 3.6% other dwellings (including semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Sydney metro's composition of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Londonderry stood at 37.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.6% and rented ones at 21.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,400, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Londonderry was $460, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Londonderry's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Londonderry features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 83.7% of all households, including 45.2% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 16.3%, with lone person households at 14.3% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Londonderry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 7.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.4%) and certificates (33.8%). Educational participation is high, with 29.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.7% in primary, 8.6% in secondary, and 3.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 42 active stops operating in Londonderry, with a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 30 individual routes, providing a total of 446 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 368 metres from the nearest stop. The area is primarily residential, with most commuters travelling outward. Car use dominates at 92%, while 4% walk. Vehicle ownership averages 2.4 per dwelling, above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 24.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 63 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Londonderry are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Londonderry's health indicators show below-average outcomes, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is approximately 54% of the total population (~2,251 people), leading the average SA2 area rate but lower than Greater Sydney's 59.9%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (8.0%) and asthma (7.6%), while 70.2% report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Health outcomes among working-age residents are typical. The area has 16.8% of residents aged 65 and over (702 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.4%, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Londonderry ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Londonderry's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 84.9 percent of its population born in Australia, 89.9 percent being citizens, and 87.1 percent speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Londonderry, comprising 66.8 percent of people, compared to Greater Sydney's 49.2 percent. In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups were Australian (27.7 percent), English (24.9 percent), and Maltese (12.6 percent), all substantially higher than regional averages of 17.8 percent, 19.0 percent, and 1.0 percent respectively.

Notably, Dutch representation was overrepresented at 1.7 percent in Londonderry compared to the region's 0.7 percent, while Lebanese and Polish groups were underrepresented at 0.8 percent each versus regional averages of 2.6 percent and 0.6 percent respectively.

Londonderry's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Londonderry is close to Greater Sydney's average age of 37 years, and it is equivalent to Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Londonderry has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (13.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.1%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 85 and over grew from 1.1% to 2.0%, while the population aged 25-34 decreased from 11.7% to 10.1%. By the year 2041, Londonderry's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 64%, increasing from 213 people to 350. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and over accounting for 70% of the projected growth. However, population declines are expected for the 35-44 and 0-4 age groups.