Cranebrook - Castlereagh

Cranebrook - Castlereagh is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Cranebrook - Castlereagh's population is around 17,398 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 17,029 people, a rise of 369 individuals (2.2%). The change was inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 17,326 in June 2024 and an additional 61 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 355 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed approximately 74.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are utilized, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest lower quartile growth, with the area expected to expand by 413 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 2.0% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Cranebrook - Castlereagh, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Cranebrook - Castlereagh has seen approximately 25 dwellings granted development approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling 126 homes. As of FY-26, five approvals have been recorded. Despite a decline in population during this period, the development activity has been relatively adequate, which is positive for buyers. The average expected construction cost value of new homes being built is $341,000.

This financial year has also seen $756,000 worth of commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Cranebrook - Castlereagh has significantly less development activity, 76.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. The area's development activity is also under the national average, suggesting its established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 87.0% standalone homes and 13.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers with an emphasis on detached housing.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 825 people, reflecting the area's quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections indicate Cranebrook - Castlereagh adding 341 residents by 2041 (based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Assuming current development patterns continue, new housing supply should meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Cranebrook - Castlereagh has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 38thth percentile nationally

A total of 22 projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Among these key projects are Nepean Business Park, Cranebrook Retail Development, Nepean Business Park (Penrith Lakes Employment Lands) - 14-278 Old Castlereagh Road, and Cranebrook Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Cranebrook - Castlereagh exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Cranebrook - Castlereagh has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent.

As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 3.1%. There are 9,603 residents employed, which is 1.1% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is high at 66.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction employment share is 1.7 times the regional level, while professional & technical employs only 4.7% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 4.0%, with a 3.1% employment decline, leading to a 1.0 percentage point fall in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranebrook - Castlereagh's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Cranebrook - Castlereagh SA2 is higher than average nationally. The median income is $57,019 and the average income stands at $67,599. In comparison, Greater Sydney's median income is $56,994 with an average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Cranebrook - Castlereagh would be approximately $64,209 (median) and $76,123 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Cranebrook - Castlereagh cluster around the 69th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate that 38.3% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, which is consistent with broader trends across the area showing 30.9% in the same category. High housing costs consume 16.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 72nd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Cranebrook - Castlereagh is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Cranebrook - Castlereagh, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 90.3% houses and 9.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 77.4% houses and 22.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranebrook - Castlereagh was 24.9%, with the remainder being mortgaged (48.9%) or rented (26.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, aligning with Sydney metro's average. The median weekly rent figure was $410, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Cranebrook - Castlereagh had significantly higher mortgage repayments at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375 at $410.

Cranebrook - Castlereagh features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.6% of all households, including 41.8% couples with children, 23.5% couples without children, and 15.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.4%, with lone person households at 16.7% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

Educational outcomes in Cranebrook - Castlereagh fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 11.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are common, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (30.8%). Educational participation is high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.9% in primary, 8.5% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranebrook - Castlereagh has 120 active public transport stops. These are served by buses along 61 routes, offering 1,297 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 189 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency is high, with 185 trips per day across all routes, equating to about 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranebrook - Castlereagh's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Cranebrook's health metrics are close to national benchmarks.

The level of common health conditions among its general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Private health cover is fairly high at approximately 53% of the total population, which amounts to around 9,290 people. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 9.1% and 9.0% of residents respectively. About 68.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.5% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, approximately 12.8% of Cranebrook's residents are aged 65 and over, totaling around 2,221 people. This is lower than the 14.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges that require more attention than those for the broader population.

Cranebrook - Castlereagh ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranebrook-Castlereagh had a cultural diversity index of 15.8, with 84.2% of its population born in Australia, 91.1% being citizens, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 58.9%. This figure is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 57.9%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (29.2%), English (26.2%), and Irish (7.2%). Notably, Maltese (4.3%) and Australian Aboriginal (4.6%) populations in Cranebrook-Castlereagh exceeded their respective regional averages of 2.9% and 3.6%.

Cranebrook - Castlereagh hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

At age 34 years, Cranebrook - Castlereagh's median age is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years. It is also younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Cranebrook - Castlereagh has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 years (14.7%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 years (14.3%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 years increased from 2.7% to 3.8%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45 to 54 years decreased from 12.7% to 11.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Cranebrook - Castlereagh. The number of residents aged 75 to 84 years is projected to increase by 86%, adding 559 residents to reach a total of 1,212. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 65% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, population declines are projected for the cohorts aged 0 to 4 years and 55 to 64 years.