Cranebrook - Castlereagh

Cranebrook - Castlereagh is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Cranebrook - Castlereagh's population is around 17,407 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 378 people (2.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,029 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,326 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 61 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 356 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 74.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, lower quartile growth of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is anticipated, with the area expected to expand by 413 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 1.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Cranebrook - Castlereagh, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Cranebrook - Castlereagh has experienced around 25 dwellings receiving development approval each year, totalling 126 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 7 approvals have been recorded. Given population has fallen over the past period, development activity has been adequate in relative terms, a positive for buyers, while new homes are being built at an average value of $341,000. There have also been $756,000 in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating the area's residential nature.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Cranebrook - Castlereagh has significantly less development activity (76.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. This activity is similarly under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 87.0% standalone homes and 13.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 825 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Future projections show Cranebrook - Castlereagh adding 332 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Cranebrook - Castlereagh has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 36thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 22 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Nepean Business Park, Cranebrook Retail Development, Nepean Business Park (Penrith Lakes Employment Lands) - 14-278 Old Castlereagh Road, and Cranebrook Village Shopping Centre Redevelopment, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.6%, Cranebrook - Castlereagh has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Cranebrook - Castlereagh possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, and an unemployment rate of only 3.6%. As of December 2025, 9,439 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.5% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Based on Census responses, a high 30.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area has particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 4.7% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 4.7% alongside a 4.4% employment decline, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Cranebrook - Castlereagh. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Cranebrook - Castlereagh's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Cranebrook - Castlereagh SA2 is higher than the national average, with the median assessed at $61,773 while the average income stands at $71,559. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $67,246 (median) and $77,899 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Cranebrook - Castlereagh cluster around the 69th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 38.3% of the community (6,666 individuals), consistent with broader trends across the area showing 30.9% in the same category. High housing costs consume 16.6% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 72nd percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Cranebrook - Castlereagh is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Cranebrook - Castlereagh, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 90.3% houses and 9.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Cranebrook - Castlereagh lagged that of Sydney metro at 24.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (48.9%) or rented (26.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Sydney metro average at $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $410, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Cranebrook - Castlereagh's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

Cranebrook - Castlereagh features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 81.6% of all households, comprising 41.8% couples with children, 23.5% couples without children, and 15.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.4%, with lone person households at 16.7% and group households comprising 1.6% of the total. The median household size of 3.0 people is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Cranebrook - Castlereagh fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (16.7%) substantially below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (30.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 141 active transport stops operating within Cranebrook - Castlereagh, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 60 individual routes, collectively providing 1,276 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 189 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 30.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 182 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 9 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Cranebrook - Castlereagh's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for Cranebrook - Castlereagh residents, with AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions showing results broadly in line with national benchmarks. The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low among the general population, though higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is fairly high at approximately 55% of the total population (~9,556 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 9.1% and 9.0% of residents, respectively, while 68.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 13.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,337 people), which is lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Cranebrook - Castlereagh ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranebrook - Castlereagh was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 84.2% of its population born in Australia, 91.1% being citizens, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Cranebrook - Castlereagh is Christianity, which makes up 58.9% of the population. This compares to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Cranebrook - Castlereagh are Australian, comprising 29.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%, English, comprising 26.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, and Irish, comprising 7.2% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Maltese is notably overrepresented at 4.3% of Cranebrook - Castlereagh (vs 1.0% regionally), Samoan at 0.6% (vs 0.5%) and Australian Aboriginal at 4.6% (vs 1.3%).

Cranebrook - Castlereagh hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

At 34 years, Cranebrook - Castlereagh's median age is somewhat lower than the Greater Sydney average of 37 and similarly considerably younger than Australia's 38 years. Relative to Greater Sydney, Cranebrook - Castlereagh has a higher concentration of 5 - 14 residents (14.4%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (13.9%). Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 2.7% to 4.0% of the population, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 7.1% to 8.2%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 15.0% to 13.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Cranebrook - Castlereagh. The 45 to 54 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 25%, adding 514 residents to reach 2,572. Senior residents (65+) will drive 62% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 55 to 64 cohorts.