St Marys - North St Marys

Population growth drivers in St Marys - North St Marys are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, the population of St Marys - North St Marys is around 19,350 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 2,025 people (11.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,325 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 18,605 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 405 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,504 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. St Marys - North St Marys's 11.7% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (6.4%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 67.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a significant population increase in the top quartile of statistical areas analyzed by AreaSearch is forecast, with the area expected to increase by 4,616 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 20.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions St Marys - North St Marys among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

St Marys - North St Marys has averaged around 160 new dwelling approvals per year, with 800 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 50 so far in FY-26. At an average of 1.6 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, though recent data shows this has intensified to 5.3 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential undersupply. New homes are being built at an average value of $212,000—under regional levels—indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers. Additionally, $92.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting robust local business investment.

Compared to Greater Sydney, St Marys - North St Marys has 93.0% more construction activity (per person), which should provide buyers with ample choice, though development activity has moderated in recent periods. Recent construction comprises 26.0% detached dwellings and 74.0% townhouses or apartments. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 61.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 208 people per dwelling approval, St Marys - North St Marys shows characteristics of a growth area.

Population forecasts indicate St Marys - North St Marys will gain 3,871 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

St Marys - North St Marys has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 37 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the St Marys Station Upgrade and Metro Integration, Western Sydney Aerotropolis Infrastructure and Development, Luddenham Metro Station and Sydney Science Park, and St Marys Central Park, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in St Marys - North St Marys face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

St Marys - North St Marys features a skilled workforce, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, and an unemployment rate of 9.0%. As of December 2025, 8,226 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 4.9% above Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (61.3% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 23.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average. Meanwhile, professional & technical services have a limited presence with 3.9% employment compared to 11.5% regionally. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 4.5% while employment declined by 3.3%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.1 percentage points. This compares to Greater Sydney, where employment grew by 2.2%, labour force expanded by 2.3%, and unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within St Marys - North St Marys. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to St Marys - North St Marys's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the St Marys - North St Marys SA2 is below the national average, with the median assessed at $56,004 while the average income stands at $60,381. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $60,966 (median) and $65,731 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in St Marys - North St Marys, between the 28th and 31st percentiles. The earnings profile shows the largest segment comprises 34.1% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (6,598 residents), consistent with broader trends across the region showing 30.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 78.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 20th percentile.

St Marys - North St Marys displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within St Marys - North St Marys, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 61.2% houses and 38.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within St Marys - North St Marys lagged that of Sydney metro at 19.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (26.2%) or rented (54.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Sydney metro average at $1,842, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $360, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, St Marys - North St Marys's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

St Marys - North St Marys features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 65.6% of all households, comprising 27.4% couples with children, 17.5% couples without children, and 18.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 34.4%, with lone person households at 30.2% and group households comprising 4.2% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

St Marys - North St Marys faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (18.8%) substantially below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 35.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (25.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 160 active transport stops operating within St Marys - North St Marys, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 49 individual routes, collectively providing 8,248 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 157 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 82%, with 10% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. Some 23.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 1,178 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 51 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in St Marys - North St Marys is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across St Marys - North St Marys, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~9,520 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 8.7% and 8.4% of residents, respectively, while 67.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 14.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,782 people), which is lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

St Marys - North St Marys was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Marys - North St Marys scores highly on cultural diversity, with 34.2% of its population born overseas and 31.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in St Marys - North St Marys is Christianity, which makes up 57.7% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Hinduism, which comprises 4.8% of the population, compared to 5.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in St Marys - North St Marys are Australian, comprising 20.8% of the population, English, comprising 19.8% of the population, and Other, comprising 17.5% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Samoan is notably overrepresented at 2.7% of St Marys - North St Marys (vs 0.5% regionally), Filipino at 4.7% (vs 2.0%) and Maori at 1.5% (vs 0.4%).

St Marys - North St Marys's population is younger than the national pattern

St Marys - North St Marys's median age of 35 years is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 as well as somewhat younger than the 38-year national average. The 5 - 14 age group shows strong representation at 13.5% compared to Greater Sydney, whereas the 35 - 44 cohort is less prevalent at 14.2%. Since 2021, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 12.3% to 13.7% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 16.4% to 15.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for St Marys - North St Marys. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to rise substantially, expanding by 641 people (71%) from 903 to 1,545. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 cohort grows by a modest 5% (75 people).