St Marys - North St Marys

Population growth drivers in St Marys - North St Marys are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, St Marys - North St Marys' population is around 18,730 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,405 people (8.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,325 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 18,608 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 385 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,456 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. St Marys - North St Marys' 8.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (4.4%), along with the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 67.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 4,616 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting recording a gain of 24.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions St Marys - North St Marys among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

St Marys - North St Marys has seen approximately 160 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 800 homes were approved, with a further 28 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, 1.6 new residents have arrived per new home over these five years, suggesting balanced supply and demand conditions. However, this ratio has intensified to 5.3 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential undersupply.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $212,000, which is under regional levels, offering more accessible housing choices for buyers. This year alone, $92.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting strong local business investment. Compared to Greater Sydney, St Marys - North St Marys has 93.0% more construction activity per person. Recent construction comprises 26.0% detached dwellings and 74.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 61.0% houses. This trend towards denser development provides accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers, potentially responding to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. With around 208 people per dwelling approval, St Marys - North St Marys exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the region is projected to gain approximately 4,491 residents by 2041. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

St Marys - North St Marys has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 38 projects potentially impacting the area. Key projects include: Sydney Metro Western Sydney Airport Line, St Marys Station Upgrade and Metro Integration, Western Sydney Aerotropolis Infrastructure and Development, Luddenham Metro Station and Sydney Science Park. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in St Marys - North St Marys face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

St Marys - North St Marys has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 8.0%.

There are 8,420 residents employed, which is 3.8% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in the area lags at 51.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 3.9% of employment compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 3.5%, and employment declined by 1.2% in St Marys - North St Marys, causing a drop in unemployment rate of 2.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1% and the labour force expand by 2.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points. As of 25-November, NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to St Marys - North St Marys's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows median income in St Marys - North St Marys SA2 was $51,994 and average income was $56,284. This is lower than Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $58,550 (median) and $63,381 (average), based on a 12.61% increase since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census ranks household, family, and personal incomes in St Marys - North St Marys between the 28th and 31st percentiles. The earnings profile shows 34.1% earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly (6,386 residents). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 78.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 20th percentile.

St Marys - North St Marys displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

St Marys-North St Marys' dwellings, as per the latest Census (2016), consisted of 61.2% houses and 38.8% other dwellings (including semi-detached homes, apartments, 'other' types). This contrasts with Sydney metro's 81.7% houses and 18.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in St Marys-North St Marys stood at 19.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.2% and rented ones at 54.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,842, lower than Sydney metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $360, compared to Sydney metro's $390. Nationally, St Marys-North St Marys' mortgage repayments ($1,842) were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents ($360) were less than the national figure of $375.

St Marys - North St Marys features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 65.6% of all households, including 27.4% couples with children, 17.5% couples without children, and 18.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 34.4%, with lone person households at 30.2% and group households comprising 4.2%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

St Marys - North St Marys faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 18.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (25.9%). Educational participation is high at 33.5%, with 12.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in St Marys - North St Marys shows that there are 130 active transport stops currently operating. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services. In total, these stops are serviced by 49 individual routes which collectively provide 6744 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility to public transportation is rated as excellent with residents typically located just 159 meters away from the nearest transport stop. On average, there are 963 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 51 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in St Marys - North St Marys is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

North St Marys faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent, particularly among older age cohorts. Approximately 48% of its total population (~8,990 people) have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 8.7 and 8.4% of residents respectively. However, 67.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.7% across Greater Sydney. The area has 14.0% of residents aged 65 and over (2,618 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

St Marys - North St Marys was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Marys-North St Marys has high cultural diversity, with 34.2% of its population born overseas and 31.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in St Marys-North St Marys, accounting for 57.7%. Hinduism stands out as overrepresented, comprising 4.8% compared to Greater Sydney's 3.5%.

The top three ancestral groups are Australian (20.8%), English (19.8%), and Other (17.5%). Notably, Samoan is overrepresented at 2.7%, Filipino at 4.7%, and Maori at 1.5% compared to regional figures of 2.1%, 4.5%, and 1.3% respectively.

St Marys - North St Marys's population is younger than the national pattern

St Marys - North St Marys has a median age of 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age group comprises 13.6%, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 35-44 cohort makes up 14.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 12.3% to 13.5%, whereas the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 16.4% to 15.6%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in St Marys - North St Marys. The 75-84 age group is projected to rise substantially by 702 people (83%), from 842 to 1,545. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort is expected to grow modestly by 9% (118 people).