Erskine Park

Erskine Park has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch's analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population updates, the Erskine Park statistical area (Lv2)'s population is estimated to be around 6459 as of November 2025. This reflects a decrease of 27 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6486. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population based on the latest ABS data release in June 2024 and an additional 14 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 769 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively inline with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, contributing approximately 63% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Over this period, projections indicate an overall population decline of 224 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to expand by 385 people.

The level of residential development activity in Erskine Park is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Erskine Park has seen approximately 10 new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 52 homes were approved, with a further 11 approved in FY-26 to date. The average construction cost value of these properties is $299,000, aligning with regional trends.

In FY-26, there have been $58.4 million in commercial approvals, indicating active commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Erskine Park has 66.0% lower building activity per person. This limited supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. Nationally, Erskine Park's new building activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and potential development constraints. The area's new building activity consists of 82.0% detached houses and 18.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining its traditional low density character focused on family homes. This shift from the current housing mix (98.0% houses) may reflect reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 615 people in Erskine Park, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. With expected stable or declining population, there should be reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Erskine Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Ten projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. These include ESR Erskine Park Logistics Estate, Erskine Park Employment Area (EPEA) Expansion, BlueScope Western Sydney Service Centre Expansion, and Mamre Road Stage 2 Upgrade. The following list details those considered most relevant.

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Erskine Park ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Erskine Park has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. As of September 2025, its unemployment rate is 2.3%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

In this month, 3,780 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.9% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. The workforce participation rate in Erskine Park is 67.6%, exceeding Greater Sydney's rate of 60.0%. Major employment industries among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.8% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area functions as an employment hub with a worker-to-resident ratio of 1.2:1, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from nearby areas. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, Erskine Park's labour force decreased by 4.2% while employment declined by 3.5%, resulting in a 0.7 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Providing broader context, NSW's state-level data as of 25-Nov-2025 shows employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Erskine Park's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Erskine Park had median income among taxpayers at $56,872 and average income at $63,145. These figures are below national averages of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively across Greater Sydney. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from financial year ended June 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $61,911 and average income is $68,740 as of September 2025. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data from 2021, Erskine Park's household incomes rank at the 85th percentile with weekly earnings of $2,349. Income analysis shows that 38.6% of residents (2,493 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income bracket, similar to broader regional trends where 30.9% are in the same category. Economic strength is evident with 33.7% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing expenses account for 14.3% of income. Strong earnings place residents within the 86th percentile for disposable income, and Erskine Park's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Erskine Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Erskine Park's dwellings, as per the most recent Census, consisted of 98.3% houses and 1.7% other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and others. This compares to Sydney metropolitan area's figures of 81.7% houses and 18.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Erskine Park stood at 31.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.5% and rented ones at 19.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Erskine Park was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $390. Nationally, Erskine Park's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Erskine Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 87.0% of all households, including 49.3% couples with children, 24.2% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 13.0%, with lone person households at 11.7% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 3.2 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

Educational outcomes in Erskine Park fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (27.8%). Educational participation is high, with 27.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.5% in primary, 8.8% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Erskine Park shows 68 active transport stops currently operating. These are served by a mix of buses along 20 individual routes, collectively providing 1,047 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 177 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 149 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 15 weekly trips per stop.

Erskine Park's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout Erskine Park, with both young and elderly age cohorts experiencing low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~3,353 people), slightly lagging behind the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, affecting 7.6% and 7.3% of residents respectively. A total of 71.7% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.7% across Greater Sydney. As of June 2021, 13.8% of residents are aged 65 and over (891 people). Health outcomes among seniors in Erskine Park are above average, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Erskine Park was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Erskine Park's population showed higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 26.5% born overseas and 23.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Erskine Park, making up 66.2%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 60.9%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (24.1%), English (20.6%), and Other (14.5%).

Notably, Maltese representation was higher at 4.1% compared to the regional average of 2.6%, Filipino representation was similar at 4.7% versus 4.5%, and Samoan representation was lower at 1.3% compared to 2.1%.

Erskine Park's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Erskine Park's median age is 37, matching Greater Sydney's figure and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38. The 55-64 age group makes up 14.9% of Erskine Park's population, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort comprises 12.9%, lower than Greater Sydney's figure. Between 2021 and present, the 65 to 74 age group has grown from 7.8% to 9.4%, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 2.2% to 3.7%. Meanwhile, the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 14.1% to 12.9%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Erskine Park's age structure. The 75 to 84 group is projected to grow by 151%, reaching 601 people from a previous figure of 238. This growth will be driven entirely by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above accounting for all projected growth. Conversely, the 45-54 and 5-14 age groups are expected to experience population declines.