St Clair (Penrith - NSW)

St Clair has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of November 2025, the estimated population of St Clair (Penrith - NSW) is around 20,395, reflecting a 2.3% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 19,942 people. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 20,377, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 31 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,832 persons per square kilometer, placing St Clair in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 2.3% since the census is within 2.1 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 4.4%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Natural growth contributed approximately 61.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate a decline overall, with the suburb's population expected to reduce by 171 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth is anticipated in specific age cohorts, led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to grow by 729 people.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in St Clair, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows St Clair averaged approximately 46 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 234 homes. As of FY-26, 27 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average value of $312,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers.

In FY-26, $2.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, St Clair has significantly less development activity (51.0% below regional average per person), which generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. This activity is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 79.0% detached houses and 21.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving St Clair's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. This marks a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 98.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 478 people per approval, St Clair indicates a mature market.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, St Clair may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

St Clair has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects expected to affect this region. Notable projects include the Erskine Park Employment Area (EPEA) Expansion, M12 Motorway, Mamre Road Upgrade - M4 to Erskine Park Road (Stage 1), and Western Sydney Aerotropolis Infrastructure and Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in St Clair exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

St Clair has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.0%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, 11,149 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.2% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation stands at 62.8%, comparable to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for employment among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level, but professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.3% versus the regional average of 11.5%.

Labour force levels decreased by 2.3%, combined with employment decreasing by 2.4%, over the year to June 2025, while unemployment remained essentially unchanged. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% increase in employment over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to St Clair's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

St Clair has a median taxpayer income of $56,872 and an average income of $63,145 based on latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This is slightly below the national average, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. As of September 2025, estimated median and average incomes are approximately $64,044 and $71,108 respectively, accounting for Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in St Clair cluster around the 64th percentile nationally. Distribution data shows that 38.6% of locals (7,872 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, reflecting a pattern seen in the broader area where 30.9% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 69th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

St Clair is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

St Clair's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.5% houses and 1.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 81.7% houses and 18.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in St Clair stood at 31.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 47.1% and rented ones at 21.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, above Sydney metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure in St Clair was $440, higher than Sydney metro's $390. Nationally, St Clair's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

St Clair features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.1% of all households, including 43.3% couples with children, 25.1% couples without children, and 14.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.9%, with lone person households at 14.2% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

Educational outcomes in St Clair fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate stands at 17.1%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent (12.7%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 37.6% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (27.5%).

Current educational participation is high at 29.6%, comprising primary education (10.9%), secondary education (8.4%), and tertiary education (4.0%). St Clair has a robust network of six schools educating approximately 2,652 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 981) and balanced educational opportunities. The area's five primary schools and one secondary school serve distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 86 active transport stops in St Clair, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 32 individual routes, collectively facilitating 1,002 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically situated 204 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 143 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

St Clair's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows St Clair residents have relatively positive health outcomes with a low prevalence of common conditions among the general population, but higher than national averages for older, at-risk cohorts. Private health cover is held by approximately 52% of the total population (~10,589 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 49.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (8.0%) and arthritis (7.4%), with 70.7% reporting no medical ailments, compared to 69.7% in Greater Sydney. St Clair has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over, at 15.5% (3,161 people), than Greater Sydney's 14.3%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

St Clair was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Clair's population was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 28.3% born overseas and 25.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in St Clair, making up 63.6%, compared to 60.9% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (23.2%), English (20.4%), and Other (13.8%).

Notably, Maltese representation is higher at 3.2% in St Clair than the regional average of 2.6%. Similarly, Samoan representation stands at 1.8%, compared to 2.1% regionally. Filipino representation is also notable at 4.2%, slightly lower than the regional average of 4.5%.

St Clair's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

St Clair's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 years. This is slightly below the Australian median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, St Clair has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (10.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.6%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 12.6% to 14.3%, while the 75-84 age group has risen from 2.8% to 4.3%. Conversely, the 55-64 age cohort has decreased from 13.6% to 11.6%, and the 25-34 age group has dropped from 14.3% to 12.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests St Clair's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 73%, adding 636 residents to reach 1,513. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 89% of population growth, reflecting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 55-64 age groups are projected to experience population declines.