St Marys (NSW)

Population growth drivers in St Marys are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch's validation, the estimated population of the suburb of St Marys (NSW) was around 15,026 as of Feb 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 1,770 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,256. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 14,424 following examination of ABS data released in June 2024 and an additional 390 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,542 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's population growth of 13.4% since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA3 area (6.4%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, a significant population increase is forecast for the suburb of St Marys (NSW), with an expected expansion of 3,466 persons by 2041, reflecting a gain of 19.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions St Marys among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, St Marys has seen approximately 124 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 622 homes. So far in FY-26, 30 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.6 new residents arrive per year for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, this has accelerated to 4.6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting increasing demand and tightening supply. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $346,000.

Additionally, $59.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered during FY-26, reflecting strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Sydney, St Marys records 94.0% more construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers despite a slowdown in recent years. New building activity comprises 29.0% standalone homes and 71.0% townhouses or apartments, representing a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 51.0% houses. This trend indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. With around 185 people per dwelling approval, St Marys exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by approximately 2,858 residents through to 2041.

Assuming current construction levels are maintained, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

St Marys has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 31 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include St Marys Station Upgrade and Metro Integration (commencing 2024), Luddenham Metro Station (opening 2026), Sydney Science Park (beginning 2025), Western Sydney Aerotropitis Infrastructure and Development (starting 2023), and M12 Motorway (under construction). The following list details projects likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in St Marys lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

St Marys has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 7.5%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. In September 2025, there are 6,737 residents in work while the unemployment rate is 3.3% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in St Marys lags behind Greater Sydney at 63.6%, compared to 70.0%. Based on Census responses, 24.2% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. St Marys has a notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 4.0% of employment compared to 11.5% regionally. The ratio of workers to residents is 0.6, indicating a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 3.4%, alongside a 1.3% decline in employment, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 2.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.1%, with the labour force growing by 2.4%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, suggest that St Marys' employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of St Marys's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in St Marys is $54,753 and the average income stands at $59,271. In comparison, Greater Sydney's figures are $60,817 (median) and $83,003 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for St Marys would be approximately $59,604 (median) and $64,522 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in St Marys rank modestly, between the 31st and 39th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 35.4% of locals (5,319 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 30.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in St Marys, with only 78.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 23rd percentile.

St Marys displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

St Marys' dwellings were 51.3% houses and 48.7% other types (including semi-detached, apartments, 'other') at the latest Census, compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% others. Home ownership in St Marys was 18.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.4% and rented at 54.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,847, lower than Sydney metro's $2,427. Median weekly rent was $365, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, St Marys' mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

St Marys features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.9% of all households, including 27.6% couples with children, 17.8% couples without children, and 17.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.1%, with lone person households at 31.2% and group households comprising 4.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

St Marys shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 20.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (25.1%). Educational participation is high, with 32.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 12.1% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 4.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

St Marys has 116 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 46 routes, collectively facilitating 8,233 weekly passenger trips. The average distance to the nearest stop for residents is 161 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility. As predominantly residential, most commuters travel outward. Car remains the primary mode at 82%, with train usage at 10%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, below the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 24.2% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 1,176 trips daily, translating to approximately 70 weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in St Marys is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in St Marys, as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 50% of the total population (~7,574 people) have private health cover, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma (8.4%) and mental health issues (8.3%). 68.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have above-average chronic health condition prevalence. As of 2021, 13.6% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,043 people), lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings generally aligned with the broader population.

St Marys was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Marys has a high level of cultural diversity, with 36.9% of its population born overseas and 34.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in St Marys, making up 58.7% of the population. Hinduism is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 5.8% of St Marys' population versus 5.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (19.8%), Other (19.3%), and English (18.5%). Notably, Filipino, Samoan, and Maori ethnic groups are overrepresented in St Marys compared to regional figures: Filipino at 5.2% versus 2.0%, Samoan at 2.6% versus 0.5%, and Maori at 1.5% versus 0.4%.

St Marys hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

St Mary's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and considerably younger than Australia's 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, St Mary's has a higher percentage of residents aged 0-4 (7.6%) but fewer residents aged 75-84 (4.3%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 11.8% to 13.2%, while the population aged 25-34 has declined from 17.0% to 15.9%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are forecast for St Mary's. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 72%, adding 465 residents to reach a total of 1,112. In contrast, the 0-4 age group is projected to grow minimally by just 5% (55 people).