St Marys (NSW)

Population growth drivers in St Marys are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the population of St Marys (NSW) is estimated at around 14,944 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,688 people (12.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,256 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 14,857 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 403 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,534 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 12.7% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (5.4%), along with the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas is forecast, with the suburb expected to expand by 3,226 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 21.0% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions St Marys among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in St Marys shows around 125 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 625 homes. As of FY-26, 73 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 1.8 new residents per year arrived per new home, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, this has accelerated to 4.5 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting increasing demand and tightening supply. New homes are built at an average expected construction cost value of $346,000.

In FY-26, $59.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Relative to Greater Sydney, St Marys records 93.0% more construction activity per person. New building activity shows 29.0% standalone homes and 71.0% townhouses or apartments, a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition of 51.0% houses. This trend reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring diverse, affordable housing options. With around 183 people per dwelling approval, St Marys exhibits characteristics of a growth area. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates St Marys will grow by 3,139 residents, with current development levels aligned with future requirements to maintain stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Looking ahead, St Marys is expected to grow by 3,139 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Existing development levels seem aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

St Marys has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 32 projects that could affect the region. Notable initiatives include Western Sydney Aerotropolis Infrastructure and Development, St Marys Station Upgrade and Metro Integration, Luddenham Metro Station and Sydney Science Park, and M12 Motorway. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in St Marys face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

St Marys has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate was 8.7%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. In December 2025, 6,752 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 4.5% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in St Marys lagged behind Greater Sydney at 62.3%, compared to 68.8%. Based on Census responses, 24.2% of residents worked from home. Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. St Marys had a notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services had limited presence, with only 4.0% of residents employed compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The ratio of workers to residents was 0.6, indicating a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 3.8%, alongside a 2.7% decline in employment, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1 percentage point. This contrasted with Greater Sydney, where employment rose by 2.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that St Marys' employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of St Marys has an income level below the national average, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office (ATO) data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in St Marys is $54,753, while the average income stands at $59,271. In comparison, Greater Sydney's median and average incomes are $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for St Marys would be approximately $60,404 (median) and $65,388 (average) as of March 2026. According to the Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in St Marys rank modestly, between the 31st and 39th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the predominant cohort spans 35.4% of locals (5,290 people) with incomes in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 30.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in St Marys, with only 78.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile.

St Marys displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

St Marys' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 51.3% houses and 48.7% other dwellings (including semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in St Marys stood at 18.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.4% and rented ones at 54.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,847, lower than Sydney metro's $2,427. Median weekly rent in the area was $365, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, St Marys' mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

St Marys features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.9% of all households, including 27.6% couples with children, 17.8% couples without children, and 17.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.1%, with lone person households at 31.2% and group households making up 4.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

St Marys shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 20.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (25.1%). Educational participation is high at 32.7%, comprising primary education (12.1%), secondary education (7.8%), and tertiary education (4.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

St Marys has 116 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 46 individual routes, facilitating 8,233 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 161 meters from the nearest stop. The area is predominantly residential, with most commuters traveling outward. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 82%, while train usage stands at 10%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 24.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 1,176 trips per day, equating to approximately 70 weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in St Marys is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in St Marys, as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 50% of the total population (~7,533 people) has private health cover, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (8.4%) and mental health issues (8.3%). Conversely, 68.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. St Marys has 13.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,942 people), lower than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with national rankings for the general population.

St Marys was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Marys has a high level of cultural diversity, with 36.9% of its population born overseas and 34.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in St Marys, making up 58.7% of people. Hinduism is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 5.8% of St Marys' population versus 5.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (19.8%), Other (19.3%), and English (18.5%). Notably, Filipino (5.2%) and Samoan (2.6%) populations are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 2.0% and 0.5%, respectively, while Maori is also overrepresented at 1.5%.

St Marys hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

St Mary's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, St Mary's has a higher percentage of residents aged 0-4 at 7.6%, but fewer residents aged 75-84 at 4.1%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 11.8% to 13.2%, while the population aged 0-4 has declined from 8.2% to 7.6%. By 2041, forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in St Mary's. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 26%, adding 444 residents to reach a total of 2,163. In contrast, the 0-4 age group is projected to show minimal growth of just 7%, with an increase of 84 people.