St Marys (NSW)

Population growth drivers in St Marys are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the population of St Marys NSW is estimated at around 15,026 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,770 people (13.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,256 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 14,424 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 390 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,542 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 13.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA3 area (6.4%), along with the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas is forecast, with the suburb expected to expand by 3,541 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 19.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions St Marys among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates St Marys has seen around 125 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, totalling an estimated 625 homes. By June 2026, 42 approvals have been recorded so far in FY-26. On average, 1.6 new residents per year arrived for each new home over the past five financial years, suggesting balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, this figure has accelerated to 4.6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating increasing demand and tightening supply. The average value of new homes being built is $346,000.

Additionally, $59.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered in FY-26, reflecting strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Sydney, St Marys records 95.0% more construction activity per person. Currently, 29.0% of new building activity comprises standalone homes, while 71.0% consists of townhouses or apartments. This shift towards denser development provides accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers, replacing the area's existing housing composition of 51.0% houses. With around 183 people per dwelling approval, St Marys exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, St Marys is expected to grow by 2,939 residents through to 2041.

Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially facilitating growth that exceeds current forecasts.

St Marys has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 31 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones are St Marys Station Upgrade and Metro Integration, Luddenham Metro Station and Sydney Science Park, Western Sydney Aerotropolis Infrastructure and Development, and M12 Motorway. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in St Marys face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

St Marys has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 8.5% as of AreaSearch's statistical area aggregation. By December 2025, 6,590 residents were employed at an unemployment rate of 4.4%, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in St Marys was 62.9% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. According to Census responses, 24.2% of residents worked from home. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. Notably, transport, postal & warehousing had employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average while professional & technical services had limited presence with only 4.0% employment compared to the regional average of 11.5%.

The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.6 as of the Census. Over the year to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 4.4% alongside a 3.4% decline in employment, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1 percentage point. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.2%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to St Marys's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The median income among taxpayers in St Marys suburb was $54,753 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $59,271 during the same period. In comparison, Greater Sydney's median and average incomes were $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated current median income is approximately $59,604 as of September 2025, with the average being around $64,522. Census 2021 data shows household incomes in St Marys rank between the 31st and 39th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 35.4% of locals (5,319 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. This aligns with broader trends across regional levels, where 30.9% of individuals are in the same income bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in St Marys, with only 78.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile.

St Marys displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

St Marys' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 51.3% houses and 48.7% other dwellings (including semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in St Marys stood at 18.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.4% and rented dwellings at 54.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,847, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in St Marys was $365, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, St Marys' mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

St Marys features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.9% of all households, including 27.6% couples with children, 17.8% couples without children, and 17.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 35.1%, with lone person households at 31.2% and group households making up 4.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

St Marys shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 20.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (25.1%). Educational participation is high at 32.7%, with 12.1% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

St Marys has 116 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 46 routes, providing 8,233 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 161 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 82%, while 10% use trains. The average vehicle ownership is 1.0 per dwelling, lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 24.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 1,176 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 70 weekly trips per individual stop. The map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in St Marys is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in St Marys, as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~7,574 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.4 and 8.3% of residents respectively, while 68.8% report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions than average. The area has 13.7% of residents aged 65 and over (2,058 people), lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

St Marys was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

St Marys has a high level of cultural diversity, with 36.9% of its population born overseas and 34.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in St Marys, accounting for 58.7% of the population. Hinduism is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 5.8% versus 5.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (19.8%), Other (19.3%), and English (18.5%). Notably, Filipino (5.2%) Samoan (2.6%) and Maori (1.5%) ethnicities are overrepresented in St Marys compared to regional averages of 2.0%, 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.

St Marys hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

St Mary's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and considerably younger than Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, St Mary's has a higher percentage of residents aged 0-4 years at 7.5%, but fewer residents aged 75-84 years at 4.4%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15-24 years has increased from 11.8% to 13.3%, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 17.0% to 15.8%. By 2041, St Mary's population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 71%, adding 471 residents to reach a total of 1,133. Conversely, the 0-4 age cohort is projected to show minimal growth of just 6%, adding only 68 people.