North St Marys

Population growth drivers in North St Marys are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of North St Marys is estimated at around 4,615 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 492 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,123 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 4,469 residents following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population corresponds to a density ratio of 1,446 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. North St Marys's growth of 11.9% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area (6.4%) and SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where data was unavailable, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb of North St Marys is forecasted to grow by 1,118 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 21.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees North St Marys recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows North St Marys averaged around 37 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 189 homes. As of FY-26, 10 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 1.7 new residents arrived per new home, indicating balanced supply and demand conditions. However, recent data shows this has intensified to 10 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply. New homes are being built at an average construction cost value of $350,000.

This year, there have been $33.0 million in commercial approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum compared to Greater Sydney, where North St Marys has 92.0% more construction activity per person. New development consists of 19.0% detached houses and 81.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a shift from the area's existing housing, which is currently 96.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more diverse housing options. North St Marys has approximately 378 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area with population forecasts indicating growth of 972 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current projections.

Population forecasts indicate North St Marys will gain 972 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

North St Marys has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects expected to impact this region. Notable ones are St Marys Station Upgrade and Metro Integration, Western Sydney Aerotropolis Infrastructure and Development, St Marys Central Park, and St Marys Place Strategy. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in North St Marys face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

North St Marys has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar employment. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are strongly represented. The unemployment rate is 10.7%, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

As of December 2025, there are 1,762 residents in work while the unemployment rate is 6.6% above Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation lags significantly at 55.6% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. According to Census responses, a moderate 19.4% of residents work from home. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

The area has notably high concentration in transport, postal & warehousing with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average. Professional & technical services have limited presence with only 3.4% employment compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force decreased by 4.9% while employment declined by 3.4%, causing unemployment to fall by 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to North St Marys's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of North St Marys's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in North St Marys is $43,352 and the average income stands at $46,929. This compares to figures for Greater Sydney's of $60,817 (median) and $83,003 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $47,193 (median) and $51,087 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in North St Marys all fall between the 11th and 17th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 29.3% of the population (1,352 individuals) fall within the $800 - 1,499 income range, differing from patterns across the surrounding region where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in North St Marys, with only 77.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

North St Marys is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

North St Marys' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.3% houses and 3.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in North St Marys stood at 21.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 22.5% and rented ones at 55.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in North St Marys was $340, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, North St Marys' mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

North St Marys features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 68.3% of all households, consisting of 26.6% couples with children, 15.8% couples without children, and 23.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.7%, with lone person households at 26.9% and group households comprising 4.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

North St Marys faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (8.4%) and certificates (29.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 36.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.2% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

North St Marys has 48 active public transport stops, serving a mix of train and bus services. These stops are covered by 11 routes, offering 2,822 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 140 meters to the nearest stop. The area is predominantly residential, with most commuters traveling outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 83%, while train use stands at 8%. On average, there is one vehicle per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 19.4% of residents work from home, a figure possibly influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 403 trips per day, equating to roughly 58 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in North St Marys is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

North St Marys faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups, with private health cover at approximately 46% (around 2,103 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. Nationally, the average is 55.7%.

Asthma and mental health issues are most prevalent, affecting 10.0% and 8.9% of residents respectively. However, 63.6% report no medical ailments, lower than Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. The area has 16.9% (779 people) aged 65 and over, higher than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors align with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in North St Marys was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

North St Marys, surveyed in 2016, had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 24.8% of its population born overseas and 20.6% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 54.6% of North St Marys' population as of 2016. However, Islam had a higher representation in North St Marys compared to Greater Sydney, with 3.5% versus 6.8%.

In terms of ancestry, Australians made up 24.4%, significantly more than the regional average of 17.8%. English ancestry followed at 23.8%, and Other was at 11.9%. Notably, Samoan ancestry was overrepresented at 2.7% compared to the regional 0.5%, Maltese at 2.1% versus 1.0%, and Australian Aboriginal at 8.4% compared to 1.3%.

North St Marys's population is younger than the national pattern

North St Mary's median age of 35 years is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age group makes up 14.6%, higher than Greater Sydney, while the 35-44 cohort stands at 12.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 13.9% to 15.2%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 14.5% to 13.5%. By 2041, population forecasts show significant demographic shifts in North St Mary's. The 75-84 age group is projected to rise substantially by 184 people (73%), from 253 to 438. Meanwhile, the 35-44 cohort grows modestly by 1% (8 people).