North St Marys

Population growth drivers in North St Marys are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the estimated population of North St Marys as of November 2025 is around 4,445. This reflects an increase of 322 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,123 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,423 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,393 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. North St Marys' 7.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA3 area (4.4%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national statistical areas is forecast. The suburb of North St Marys is expected to grow by 1,231 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 27.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees North St Marys recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

North St Marys averaged around 38 new dwelling approvals each year over the past 5 financial years ending FY25, totalling an estimated 191 homes. As of FY26, 3 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.6 new residents arrived per new home annually between FY21 and FY25. However, this figure intensified to 6.9 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $350,000.

This year, $11.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded. Compared to Greater Sydney, North St Marys has 95.0% more construction activity per person. Currently, new developments consist of 19.0% detached houses and 81.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 96.0% houses. The location has approximately 263 people per dwelling approval, suggesting potential for growth. According to AreaSearch quarterly estimates, North St Marys is projected to gain 1,207 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably, providing favourable conditions for buyers and supporting population growth.

Population forecasts indicate North St Marys will gain 1,207 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

North St Marys has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Eleven projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Sydney Metro Western Sydney Airport Line, St Marys Station Upgrade and Metro Integration, Western Sydney Aerotropolis Infrastructure and Development, and St Marys Central Park. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in North St Marys face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

North St Marys has a diverse workforce with both white and blue-collar jobs, predominantly in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate is 10.5%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, 1,773 residents are employed, while the unemployment rate is 6.3% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in North St Marys lags behind Greater Sydney at 44.3%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction sectors. Notably, transport, postal & warehousing has a high concentration with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 3.4%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labour force decreased by 2.6% while employment declined by 2.3%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.3 percentage points in North St Marys. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%. According to Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22, overall employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to North St Marys' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

North St Mary's median income among taxpayers was $43,352 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $46,929 during the same period. In Greater Sydney, these figures were $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% indicate median income would be approximately $48,819 and average income around $52,847 in North St Mary's. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in North St Mary's fall between the 11th and 17th percentiles nationally. Income distribution reveals that 29.3% of the population (1,302 individuals) earn within the $800 - $1,499 range, differing from surrounding regions where $1,500 - $2,999 dominates with 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in North St Mary's, with only 77.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

North St Marys is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

North St Marys' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.3% houses and 3.7% other dwellings (including semi-detached properties, apartments, and 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan area's dwelling composition of 81.7% houses and 18.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in North St Marys stood at 21.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 22.5% and rented dwellings at 55.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in North St Marys was $340, compared to Sydney metro's $390. Nationally, North St Marys' mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

North St Marys features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.3% of all households, including 26.6% couples with children, 15.8% couples without children, and 23.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 31.7%, with lone person households at 26.9% and group households at 4.7%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

North St Marys faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.8%, substantially lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.4%) and certificates (29.0%). Educational participation is high at 36.6%, with 14.2% in primary, 10.3% in secondary, and 3.7% in tertiary education.

North St Marys has 3 schools with a combined enrollment of 1,033 students. The area's ICSEA score is 850, indicating varied educational conditions. Educational provision consists of one primary and two secondary institutions. The area functions as an education hub with 23.2 school places per 100 residents, above the regional average of 15.0, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in North St Marys shows that there are 42 active transport stops currently operating. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services. There are 13 individual routes servicing these stops, collectively providing 2,792 weekly passenger trips.

The report rates transport accessibility as excellent, with residents typically located 140 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency is 398 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 66 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in North St Marys is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

North St Marys faces significant health challenges with a considerably higher prevalence of common health conditions compared to average. This is particularly true for older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover in North St Marys is extremely low at approximately 46% (around 2,026 people), compared to 49.7% across Greater Sydney and the national average of 55.3%.

Asthma and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.0% and 8.9% of residents respectively. However, 63.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.7% across Greater Sydney. North St Marys has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 16.5% (733 people), compared to 14.3% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

North St Marys was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

North St Marys had a higher cultural diversity compared to most local areas, with 24.8% of its population born overseas and 20.6% using a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in North St Marys, accounting for 54.6% of the population. However, Islam was more prevalent here than in Greater Sydney, comprising 3.5% versus 6.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (24.4%), English (23.8%), and Other (11.9%). Notably, Samoan (2.7%) and Maltese (2.1%) populations were relatively higher in North St Marys compared to regional averages of 2.1% and 2.6%, respectively. Additionally, the Australian Aboriginal population was significantly higher at 8.4% compared to the regional average of 3.5%.

North St Marys's population is younger than the national pattern

North St Mary's median age of 35 years is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age group represents 14.4%, higher than Greater Sydney, while the 35-44 cohort stands at 11.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 13.9% to 15.1%. Conversely, the 0 to 4 cohort has decreased from 6.7% to 6.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in North St Mary's. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to rise substantially by 210 people (an 86% increase) from 244 to 455. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 cohort grows modestly by 8%, adding 22 people.