North St Marys

Population growth drivers in North St Marys are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of North St Marys is estimated at around 4,615 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 492 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,123 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 4,469 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,446 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. North St Marys's growth of 11.9% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area (6.4%) and SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, a significant population increase is forecast for North St Marys, with an expected growth of 1,188 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 21.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees North St Marys recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

North St Marys averaged approximately 38 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 192 homes. As of FY-26, 6 approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 1.6 new residents arrived per new home. However, from FY-24 to FY-25, this figure intensified to 9.2 people per dwelling, indicating growing popularity and potential undersupply. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $350,000.

In FY-26, there have been $33.0 million in commercial approvals, suggesting strong commercial development momentum compared to Greater Sydney, where North St Marys has 95.0% more construction activity per person. New development consists of 19.0% detached houses and 81.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 96.0% houses. The location has approximately 347 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area with population forecasts indicating growth of 1,004 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current projections.

Population forecasts indicate North St Marys will gain 1,004 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

North St Marys has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified ten projects potentially impacting this region. Notable ones are: St Marys Station Upgrade and Metro Integration, Western Sydney Aerotropolis Infrastructure and Development, St Marys Central Park, and St Marys Place Strategy. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in North St Marys face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

North St Marys has a balanced workforce spanning white collar and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are strongly represented. The unemployment rate is 9.5%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, 1,811 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 5.4% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in North St Marys lags at 56.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. A moderate 19.4% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

The area has a notably high concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services have limited presence with only 3.4% of employment compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force decreased by 3.8%, while employment declined by 1.1%, causing unemployment to fall by 2.5 percentage points in North St Marys. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.1% during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to North St Marys' employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, according to simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of North St Marys's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in North St Marys is $43,352 and the average income stands at $46,929. This compares to figures for Greater Sydney of $60,817 (median) and $83,003 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $47,193 (median) and $51,087 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in North St Marys all fall between the 11th and 17th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, 29.3% of the population (1,352 individuals) fall within the $800 - 1,499 income range, differing from patterns across the surrounding region where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 77.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

North St Marys is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

North St Marys' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.3% houses and 3.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in North St Marys was at 21.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 22.5% and rented ones at 55.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in North St Marys was $340, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, North St Marys' mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

North St Marys features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 68.3% of all households, including 26.6% couples with children, 15.8% couples without children, and 23.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.7%, with lone person households at 26.9% and group households comprising 4.7%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

North St Marys faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.4%) and certificates (29.0%). Educational participation is high, with 36.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 14.2% in primary, 10.3% in secondary, and 3.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 36.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.2% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

North St Marys has 48 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 11 individual routes, collectively facilitating 2,822 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 140 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car remains the dominant mode at 83%, while train usage stands at 8%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 19.4% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 403 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 58 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in North St Marys is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

North St Marys faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and prevalence of chronic conditions are high, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 46% (around 2,103 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (10.0%) and mental health issues (8.9%). Conversely, 63.6% report no medical ailments, lower than Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 16.8% (775 people) compared to Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally in line with national rankings.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in North St Marys was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

North St Marys had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 24.8% of its population born overseas and 20.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in North St Marys, accounting for 54.6% of its people. However, Islam was notably overrepresented, comprising 3.5% of the population compared to Greater Sydney's average of 6.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (24.4%), English (23.8%), and Other (11.9%). Notably, Samoan (2.7%) and Maltese (2.1%) populations were higher than regional averages of 0.5% and 1.0%, respectively. Additionally, the Australian Aboriginal population was significantly higher at 8.4% compared to the regional average of 1.3%.

North St Marys's population is younger than the national pattern

North St Mary's median age of 35 years is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 15-24 age group has strong representation at 15.3%, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 35-44 cohort is less prevalent at 11.8%. Between 2021 and present day, the 15-24 age group grew from 13.9% to 15.3% of the population. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 14.5% to 13.3%. Population forecasts for North St Mary's in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 181 people (68%) from 267 to 449. Meanwhile, the 35-44 cohort grows modestly by 2% (10 people).