Horsley Park - Kemps Creek

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek's population was 4,326 as of Nov 2025, a decrease of 18 people from the 2021 Census figure of 4,344. This change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 4,194 in June 2024 and 73 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was 76 persons per square kilometer. Between the Census and Jun 2024, the SA3 area grew by 2.2% while Horsley Park - Kemps Creek experienced a 0.4% decline. Overseas migration was the primary driver of growth in recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a 2022 base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a 2021 base year.

Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is expected to grow by 223 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 2.1% over 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek has granted approximately 16 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 81 homes. As of FY26, seven approvals have been recorded. The population decline in recent years suggests that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $564,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

In FY26, commercial approvals totalling $1032.6 million have been registered, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Horsley Park - Kemps Creek records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 38th percentile nationally in terms of assessed areas, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice which supports interest in existing dwellings. New building activity comprises 90% standalone homes and 10% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 453 people, reflecting its quiet, low-activity development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Horsley Park - Kemps Creek is expected to grow by 90 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly influenced by changes to its local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of sixty-five projects that are anticipated to impact the area. Notable projects include Western Sydney International Airport Precinct Road Network, Oakdale East Industrial Estate, Horsley Logistics Park Stage 2, and Mamre Road Upgrade from Erskine Park Road to Kerrs Road. The following list details those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market strength in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek has a skilled workforce, with the construction sector notably represented. Its unemployment rate was 1.7% in September 2024, with an estimated employment growth of 4.0% over the past year.

As of September 2025, 2,335 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.5%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is 52.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. Construction employment is particularly high, at 2.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, health care & social assistance has lower representation, at 8.0% versus the regional average of 14.1%. The area functions as an employment hub, with 1.3 workers per resident. Between September 2024 and 2025, employment levels increased by 4.0%, labour force grew by 3.8%, resulting in a unemployment rate fall of 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1%. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Horsley Park - Kemps Creek's employment mix, local employment is expected to increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.3% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The Horsley Park - Kemps Creek SA2 had an extremely high national income level according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. Its median income among taxpayers was $53,513 and average income stood at $85,381, compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $60,261 (median) and $96,148 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household incomes ranked exceptionally at the 86th percentile ($2,372 weekly), though personal income ranked lower at the 44th percentile. Distribution data showed the $4000+ bracket dominated with 26.3% of residents (1,137 people), contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket led at 30.9%. Horsley Park - Kemps Creek demonstrated considerable affluence with 39.0% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. After housing costs, residents retained 88.4% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Horsley Park-Kemps Creek, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.6% houses and 4.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 73.3% houses and 26.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Horsley Park-Kemps Creek was at 54.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.3% and rented ones at 14.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,000, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $440, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Horsley Park-Kemps Creek's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.0% of all households, including 46.8% couples with children, 25.2% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.0%, with lone person households at 13.7% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.2.

Educational outcomes in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (26.9%). Educational participation is high, with 28.3% currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.7% in primary, 8.6% in secondary, and 4.9% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek has 118 active public transport stops. These are served by buses along 64 different routes, offering a total of 664 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents located an average of 419 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 94 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately five weekly trips per individual stop.

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek residents show relatively positive health outcomes, with a low prevalence of common conditions among the general population, but higher than the national average for older and at-risk cohorts. Private health cover is exceptionally high in the area, with approximately 63% of the total population (2,738 people), compared to 47.7% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%. The most common conditions are arthritis (8.8%) and diabetes (5.9%), while 72.3% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 75.6% in Greater Sydney.

The area has 22.9% of residents aged 65 and over (991 people), higher than the 19.0% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to presenting challenges.

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Horsley Park-Kemps Creek had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 30.3% of its population born overseas and 40.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Horsley Park-Kemps Creek, accounting for 80.6%, compared to 55.7% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were Italian (24.6%), Other (15.8%), and Australian (14.3%).

Notably, Maltese representation was higher at 11.2% compared to the regional average of 1.2%. Croatian and Serbian representations were also notably higher at 3.4% and 1.7%, respectively, compared to their regional averages of 1.7% and 1.8%.

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek has a median age of 44, which exceeds Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and is significantly higher than the national average of 38. The age group of 55-64 years old makes up 15.0% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney's percentage. Conversely, the 35-44 age group comprises only 8.3%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 7.1% to 9.2%, while the 55 to 64 cohort grew from 13.9% to 15.0%. However, the 45 to 54 age group decreased from 14.6% to 12.7%, and the 35 to 44 group fell from 9.5% to 8.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling predicts significant changes in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek's age profile. The 65 to 74 group is projected to grow by 36%, reaching 606 people from the current 446. This growth will be driven entirely by those aged 65 and above, who will account for 100% of the population increase. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 and 25 to 34 age groups are expected to experience population declines.