Horsley Park - Kemps Creek

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of Feb 2026, Horsley Park - Kemps Creek's population is around 4,349. This shows an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 4,344 people, a rise of 5 individuals (0.1%). The change is inferred from ABS' Jun 2024 estimated resident population of 4,193 and validated new addresses since then, totalling 76. This results in a density ratio of 77 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for SA2 areas, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For uncovered areas, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas until 2041. By 2041, the area is expected to grow by 223 persons based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.5% over 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Horsley Park-Kemps Creek has recorded approximately 16 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years ending June 2021, totalling 81 homes. As of July 2021, 10 approvals have been recorded in FY-26. The area's population decline has likely been matched by new supply meeting demand, offering good choice for buyers. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $564,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year has seen $1.033 billion in commercial approvals registered, demonstrating high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Horsley Park-Kemps Creek records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 38th percentile of areas assessed nationally, leading to relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. New building activity shows 90% standalone homes and 10% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 453 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Horsley Park-Kemps Creek is expected to grow by 67 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 66 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include Western Sydney International Airport Precinct Road Network, Oakdale East Industrial Estate, Mamre Road Upgrade from Erskine Park Road to Kerrs Road, and Horsley Logistics Park Stage 2. The following list provides details of those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market strength in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 1.7% as of September 2025, and it experienced an estimated employment growth of 4.0% over the past year. As of that date, 2,335 residents were employed while the area's unemployment rate was 2.5 percentage points lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek was 66.7%, slightly below Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 37.3% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries of employment among residents were construction, manufacturing, and retail trade, with construction showing particularly high concentration at 2.4 times the regional average. Conversely, health care & social assistance had lower representation at 8.0%, compared to the regional average of 14.1%.

The area functioned as an employment hub with a worker-to-resident ratio of 1.3, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.0% while labour force grew by 3.8%, leading to a decrease in unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1%, labour force growth of 2.4%, and an increase in unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Horsley Park - Kemps Creek's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.3% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The Horsley Park - Kemps Creek SA2 had an extremely high national income level according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Its median income among taxpayers was $58,340 and average income stood at $84,709, compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $63,509 (median) and $92,214 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household incomes ranked exceptionally at the 86th percentile ($2,372 weekly), though personal income ranked lower at the 44th percentile. Distribution data showed the $4000+ bracket dominated with 26.3% of residents (1,143 people), contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket led at 30.9%. Horsley Park - Kemps Creek demonstrated considerable affluence with 39.0% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. After housing costs, residents retained 88.4% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Horsley Park-Kemps Creek's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 95.6% houses and 4.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Horsley Park-Kemps Creek stood at 54.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.3% and rented ones at 14.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, higher than Sydney metro's $2,427. Median weekly rent was $440, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Horsley Park-Kemps Creek's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 85.0% of all households, including 46.8% couples with children, 25.2% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 15.0%, with lone person households at 13.7% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (26.9%). Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.7% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek has 131 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 64 different routes that together facilitate 752 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents living an average of 419 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area, with cars being the dominant mode of transportation at 92%. Five percent of residents walk to their destinations. On average, there are 2.5 vehicles per dwelling in the area, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 37.3% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 107 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately five weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health outcomes in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek has below-average health indicators, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 62% of the total population (2,678 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and diabetes, affecting 8.8 and 5.9% of residents respectively. 72.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 23.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,034 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Horsley Park-Kemps Creek has a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 30.3% of its population born overseas and 40.7% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Horsley Park-Kemps Creek, accounting for 80.6%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Italian (24.6%), Other (15.8%), and Australian (14.3%).

Notably, Maltese (11.2%) is overrepresented in Horsley Park-Kemps Creek compared to the regional average of 1.0%. Similarly, Croatian (3.4%) and Serbian (1.7%) groups have higher representations than their respective regional averages of 0.7% and 0.5%.

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek is 44, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. The 55-64 age group constitutes 14.9% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney. Conversely, the 35-44 cohort makes up 8.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has grown from 7.1% to 9.5%, and the 55-64 cohort increased from 13.9% to 14.9%. However, the 45-54 cohort declined from 14.6% to 12.2%, and the 35-44 group dropped from 9.5% to 8.4%. Demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek's age profile by 2041. The 65-74 group is projected to grow by 31% (145 people), reaching 606 from 460. This growth will be driven entirely by the aging population, with those aged 65 and above comprising all of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 55-64 and 25-34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.