Horsley Park - Kemps Creek

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Horsley Park - Kemps Creek's population is around 4,349 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 5 people (0.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,344 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,193 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 76 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 77 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to grow by 223 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 1.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek has recorded around 16 residential properties granted approval per year, totalling 81 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 15 approvals have been recorded. With population declining over recent years, new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers, while new homes are being built at an average value of $564,000, revealing that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Additionally, $1.033 billion in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity.

When measured against Greater Sydney, Horsley Park - Kemps Creek records about three-quarters the building activity per person and places in the 38th percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. New building activity shows 90.0% standalone homes and 10.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 453 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Looking ahead, Horsley Park - Kemps Creek is expected to grow by 67 residents through to 2041 (based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 66 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Western Sydney International Airport Precinct Road Network, Oakdale East Industrial Estate, Mamre Road Upgrade - Erskine Park Road to Kerrs Road, and Horsley Logistics Park Stage 2, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market strength in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek possesses a skilled workforce, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of just 1.7%, and 5.1% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 2,368 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.4% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (67.6% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 37.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 2.4 times the regional average. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 8.0% versus the regional average of 14.1%. With 1.3 workers for every resident, as at the Census, the area functions as an employment hub, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.1% and the labour force increased by 4.9%, resulting in unemployment falling by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2%, labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Horsley Park - Kemps Creek. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Horsley Park - Kemps Creek's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The Horsley Park - Kemps Creek SA2's income level is extremely high nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Horsley Park - Kemps Creek SA2's median income among taxpayers is $58,340 and the average income stands at $84,709, which compares to figures for Greater Sydney's of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $63,509 (median) and $92,214 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household incomes rank exceptionally at the 86th percentile ($2,372 weekly), though personal income ranks lower at the 44th percentile. Distribution data shows the $4000+ bracket dominates with 26.3% of residents (1,143 people), contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. Horsley Park - Kemps Creek demonstrates considerable affluence with 39.0% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. After housing costs, residents retain 88.4% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Horsley Park - Kemps Creek, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 95.6% houses and 4.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Horsley Park - Kemps Creek was well beyond that of Sydney metro, at 54.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (30.3%) or rented (14.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Sydney metro average at $3,000, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $440, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Horsley Park - Kemps Creek's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 85.0% of all households, comprising 46.8% couples with children, 25.2% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 15.0%, with lone person households at 13.7% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size of 3.4 people is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (16.7%) substantially below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 12.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 36.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (26.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 131 active transport stops operating within Horsley Park - Kemps Creek, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 64 individual routes, collectively providing 752 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 419 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 92%, with 5% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 2.5 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 37.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 107 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 5 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health outcomes in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average outcomes in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 62% of the total population (2,678 people). The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and diabetes, impacting 8.8% and 5.9% of residents, respectively, while 72.3% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 23.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,034 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 30.3% of its population born overseas and 40.7% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek is Christianity, which makes up 80.6% of people, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Horsley Park - Kemps Creek are Italian, comprising 24.6% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 3.4%, Other, comprising 15.8% of the population, and Australian, comprising 14.3% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Maltese is notably overrepresented at 11.2% of Horsley Park - Kemps Creek (vs 1.0% regionally), Croatian at 3.4% (vs 0.7%) and Serbian at 1.7% (vs 0.5%).

Horsley Park - Kemps Creek hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

With a median age of 44, Horsley Park - Kemps Creek notably exceeds the Greater Sydney figure of 37 and substantially exceeds the national norm of 38. The 55 - 64 age group shows strong representation at 14.9% compared to Greater Sydney, whereas the 35 - 44 cohort is less prevalent at 8.4%. Following the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.1% to 9.5% of the population, while the 55 to 64 cohort increased from 13.9% to 14.9%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 14.6% to 12.2% and the 35 to 44 group dropped from 9.5% to 8.4%. Demographic modeling suggests Horsley Park - Kemps Creek's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. Leading the demographic shift, the 65 to 74 group will grow by 31% (145 people), reaching 606 from 460. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those 65+ comprising 100% of projected growth. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 and 25 to 34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.