Minchinbury

An assessment of population growth drivers in Minchinbury reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Minchinbury statistical area (Lv2) is around 6,084 people. This figure reflects a growth of 306 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,778 people. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 5,864 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 30 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,452 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Minchinbury's population growth rate of 5.3% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 5.2%, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. The primary driver for this growth was overseas migration, contributing approximately 88.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. In examining future population trends up to 2041, lower quartile growth of national areas is anticipated. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Minchinbury (SA2) area is expected to grow by 201 persons over this period, reflecting an increase of approximately 0.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Minchinbury, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Minchinbury has experienced around 12 dwellings receiving development approval per year. Over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 62 homes were approved, with a further 10 approved so far in FY-26. The average number of people moving to the area for each dwelling built over these years is 0.7 per year.

This suggests that new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations. The average value of new homes being built is $363,000. In FY-26, $16.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. When compared to Greater Sydney, Minchinbury has 18.0% less new development per person.

Nationally, it places among the 39th percentile of areas assessed, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This is under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New development consists of 83.0% detached dwellings and 17.0% townhouses or apartments, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 437 people per dwelling approval, Minchinbury shows a developed market. Looking ahead, Minchinbury is expected to grow by 25 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Minchinbury has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects likely to impact the region. Key initiatives include Sydney Metro - Western Sydney Airport, NSW State Emergency Service Facility Oakhurst, LOGOS Eastern Creek Logistics Estate, and Luxford Road Pavement Rehabilitation. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Minchinbury demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Minchinbury has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate in the area was 3.1% as of an unspecified date.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.7%. As of September 2025, 3,398 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.1% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Minchinbury was 62.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries of employment among residents included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing.

The area had a strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level. Professional & technical services had limited presence, with 5.2% employment compared to 11.5% regionally. The ratio of workers to residents at the time of the Census indicated a higher than normal level of local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 4.7% while labour force grew by 4.3%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate of 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1%, labour force growth of 2.4%, with an increase in unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points. As of 25-November, NSW employment had contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state's unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Minchinbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Minchinbury had a median taxpayer income of $55,385 and an average income of $61,349. These figures are lower than the national averages of $60,817 and $83,003 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Minchinbury's median income would be approximately $60,292 and average income around $66,785 as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 data, household income ranks at the 78th percentile ($2,208 weekly) and personal income at the 55th percentile in Minchinbury. The majority of residents (36.7%, or 2,232 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income bracket. Higher earners exceeding $3,000 weekly represent a significant portion (31.4%) of the population. Housing costs consume 15.5% of income in Minchinbury, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 78th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Minchinbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Minchinbury's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.2% houses and 5.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 80.7% houses and 19.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Minchinbury was at 29.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.2% and rented ones at 20.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure in Minchinbury was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $350. Nationally, Minchinbury's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Minchinbury features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 86.0% of all households, including 49.0% couples with children, 21.6% couples without children, and 14.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 14.0%, with lone person households at 12.3% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

Educational outcomes in Minchinbury fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate of 23.0%, as of the referenced data point, is significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives in the area. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent, with 17.5% of residents holding them, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.1% and graduate diplomas at 1.4%. Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 33.5% of residents aged 15 or above possessing them, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (22.5%).

Educational participation is notably high in the area, with 30.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (10.4%), secondary education (9.6%), and tertiary education (5.0%).

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Minchinbury has 66 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 17 different routes that together facilitate 2,623 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these stops is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located 134 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there are an average of 374 trips per day, which equates to approximately 39 weekly trips per individual stop.

Minchinbury's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Minchinbury. Both young and old age cohorts experience low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~3,116 people), compared to 48.6% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions are asthma and diabetes, impacting 7.1 and 6.7% of residents respectively. A total of 73.6% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 71.2% across Greater Sydney. As of the latest data (June 20XX), 12.3% of residents are aged 65 and over (748 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Minchinbury is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Minchinbury's population includes 39.1% born overseas, with 41.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 63.1%. Islam is slightly overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 13.5% versus 13.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (23.1%), Australian (17.6%), and English (14.2%). Filipino (9.2%) and Maltese (3.7%) populations are notably higher than regional averages of 10.3% and 1.7%, respectively, while Samoan is lower at 1.8% compared to the region's 3.6%.

Minchinbury's population is younger than the national pattern

Minchinbury's median age is 35 years, which is younger than Greater Sydney's 37 and the national average of 38. The 55-64 age group constitutes 13.6% of Minchinbury's population, compared to Greater Sydney. The 25-34 cohort makes up 12.3%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 2.7% to 4.0%, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 13.7% to 12.3%. By 2041, population forecasts show significant demographic changes in Minchinbury. The 75-84 age group is projected to rise by 183 people (75%), from 243 to 427. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 79% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, both the 15-24 and 25-34 age groups are expected to decrease in number.