Minchinbury

An assessment of population growth drivers in Minchinbury reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The suburb of Minchinbury's estimated population as of November 2025 is around 5,791 people. This figure represents an increase from the 2021 Census count of 5,778 residents, a change inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 5,767 based on ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. The current population density is approximately 1,382 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Minchinbury has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.8%, outpacing its SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 88% of overall population gains during recent periods. For future projections until 2041, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia's SA2-level projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Minchinbury is anticipated to grow by 210 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 5.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Minchinbury, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Minchinbury has averaged around 12 dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 60 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved in FY-26. The average population increase per dwelling built over these years was 0.8 people.

This suggests new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, offering more housing options and potentially driving population growth beyond current projections. The average expected construction cost of new homes in Minchinbury is $363,000, which is below the regional average, indicating affordable housing options. In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $23.5 million, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney and nationally, Minchinbury has a lower rate of new dwelling approvals per person, placing it in the 15th percentile of areas assessed. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing dwellings.

New development consists of 75% detached dwellings and 25% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Minchinbury's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. This represents a shift from the area's current housing composition, which is 94% houses. Minchinbury has approximately 1072 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the location is expected to grow by 327 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Minchinbury has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects that could impact the region. Notable ones include Sydney Metro - Western Sydney Airport, NSW State Emergency Service Facility Oakhurst, LOGOS Eastern Creek Logistics Estate, and Luxford Road Pavement Rehabilitation. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Minchinbury well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Minchinbury has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 3.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 6.8%.

As of June 2025, there are 3,504 residents employed, and the unemployment rate is 1.0% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is standard at 62.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and transport, postal & warehousing. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services have limited presence at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The ratio of workers to residents is 0.7, indicating above-normal local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 6.8%, while labour force grew by 6.9%, causing a slight rise in unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6% and the labour force by 2.9%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Minchinbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Minchinbury had a median taxpayer income of $55,385 and an average income of $61,349. These figures are lower than the national averages of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively in Greater Sydney. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2022 to September 2025, estimated median and average incomes would be approximately $62,369 and $69,085 respectively. Census 2021 data indicates Minchinbury's household income ranks at the 78th percentile ($2,208 weekly) and personal income at the 55th percentile. The majority of residents (36.7%, or 2,125 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income bracket. Higher earners exceeding $3,000 weekly make up a substantial presence (31.4%). High housing costs consume 15.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 78th percentile. Minchinbury's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Minchinbury is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Minchinbury's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.2% houses and 5.8% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and others. This is compared to Sydney metropolitan area's 80.7% houses and 19.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Minchinbury stood at 29.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.2% and rented ones at 20.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,000. Weekly rent median in Minchinbury was $450, higher than Sydney metro's $350. Nationally, Minchinbury's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Minchinbury features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 86.0% of all households, consisting of 49.0% couples with children, 21.6% couples without children, and 14.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 14.0%, with lone person households at 12.3% and group households comprising 1.5% of the total. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

Educational outcomes in Minchinbury fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 23.0%, significantly below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 33.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 11.0% and certificates at 22.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education. Minchinbury Public School serves the local area, with an enrollment of 489 students as of a recent report. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. Local school capacity is limited, with 8.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 18.0, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Minchinbury has 54 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 17 different routes that together facilitate 2,071 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from a resident's home to the nearest transport stop is 134 meters.

On average, there are 295 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 38 weekly trips per individual stop.

Minchinbury's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Minchinbury. Both young and old age cohorts have low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 51% of the total population (~2,966 people), slightly lagging that of the average SA2 area. This compares to 47.8% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and diabetes, impacting 7.1 and 6.7% of residents respectively. 73.6% of residents declare themselves as completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 71.2% across Greater Sydney. As of 2016, 12.2% of residents are aged 65 and over (706 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Minchinbury is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Minchinbury's cultural diversity is notable, with 39.1% of its population born overseas and 41.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Minchinbury, accounting for 63.1% of people. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 13.5% versus 13.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (23.1%), Australian (17.6%), and English (14.2%). Filipino, Maltese, and Samoan ethnicities show notable divergences: Filipino is overrepresented at 9.2%, Maltese at 3.7%, and Samoan at 1.8%.

Minchinbury's population is younger than the national pattern

Minchinbury has a median age of 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 and somewhat younger than Australia's national average of 38. The 55-64 age group makes up 13.6% of Minchinbury's population, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage. However, the 25-34 age cohort is less prevalent in Minchinbury at 12.3%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 2.7% to 4.0%, while the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 13.7% to 12.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Minchinbury. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to rise substantially by 196 people (an increase of 85%), going from 231 to 428 individuals. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 66% of total population growth, reflecting Minchinbury's aging demographic profile. Conversely, both the 25-34 and 5-14 age groups are projected to decrease in number.