Kemps Creek

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kemps Creek reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Kemps Creek is estimated at around 2,455 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 2,121 people. The growth of 334 people (15.7%) since the census is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 1,962 following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and an additional 53 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 71 persons per square kilometer. Kemps Creek's growth rate exceeded both the state (7.8%) and Greater Sydney figures, marking it as a significant growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 84.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections predict exceptional growth over the period to 2041, with the suburb expected to increase by 6,011 persons, reflecting a gain of 263.4% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Kemps Creek when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Kemps Creek recorded around 15 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 75 homes. So far in FY26, 13 approvals have been recorded. This results in an average of 14.7 new residents arriving per dwelling constructed annually between FY21 and FY25. New supply significantly lags behind demand, which typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition.

Developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments, as indicated by an average construction value of $668,000 for new homes. Commercial development is strong this financial year, with approvals totalling $645.4 million.

Recent construction comprises 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character appealing to those seeking space. There are approximately 262 people per dwelling approval in Kemps Creek, indicating room for growth. Population forecasts estimate Kemps Creek will gain 6,467 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Kemps Creek has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 62 projects likely to influence the area. Notable projects include Access Logistics Park, Western Sydney University Aerotropolis Campus, Sydney Metro Western Sydney Airport Line, and Western Sydney Aerotropolis. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Kemps Creek has been broadly consistent with national averages

Kemps Creek has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.3% as of September 2025. Employment growth in the past year was estimated at 3.4%.

Residents' unemployment rate is 0.9% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is high at 88.3%. Census data shows that 34.7% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries include construction, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and health care & social assistance. The area has a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing (22.4 times the regional level), while professional & technical services employ 5.1% of local workers, lower than Greater Sydney's 11.5%.

There are 0.8 workers per resident, indicating substantial employment opportunities locally. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.4%, labour force grew by 3.5%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kemps Creek's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.1% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Kemps Creek's median income among taxpayers is $44,934. The average income in the suburb is $60,695. This is lower than the national average. In Greater Sydney, the median income is $60,817 and the average is $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from financial year ending June 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $48,915 (median) and $66,073 (average). Census 2021 income data shows individual incomes at the 16th percentile are $633 weekly. Household incomes are at the 50th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 31.2% of Kemps Creek's community (765 individuals), similar to regional levels where 30.9% occupy this range. After housing expenses, 86.6% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Kemps Creek is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Kemps Creek, as per the latest Census evaluation, 93.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 6.2% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan areas where 55.9% of dwellings are houses and 44.1% are other dwelling types. Home ownership in Kemps Creek stood at 48.4%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 20.6% and rented dwellings making up 30.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,875, lower than Sydney's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Kemps Creek was recorded at $470, aligning with Sydney's figure but higher than the national average of $375. Nationally, Kemps Creek's mortgage repayments were slightly higher than the Australian average of $1,863.

Kemps Creek features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.0% of all households, including 40.7% that are couples with children, 23.8% that are couples without children, and 13.7% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 20.0%, with lone person households at 15.7% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 3.2 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Kemps Creek fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 12.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.7%) and graduate diplomas (0.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.2%) and certificates (26.5%). Educational participation is high at 27.8%, comprising primary education (10.5%), secondary education (8.6%), and tertiary education (4.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that there are 44 active public transport stops in Kemps Creek. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 49 individual routes. Together, they facilitate 504 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as moderate, with residents typically situated 546 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars are the primary mode of transport for 87% of residents, while 9% walk.

On average, there are 2.2 vehicles per dwelling in Kemps Creek, exceeding the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 34.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 72 trips per day, translating to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kemps Creek's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data for Kemps Creek shows positive outcomes overall. Mortality rates and health conditions are broadly in line with national benchmarks, despite higher prevalence among older, at-risk cohorts.

Only 51% of residents have private health cover, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. The most common conditions are arthritis (9.4%) and diabetes (6.3%). 69.6% report no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. 15.9% of residents are aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Kemps Creek was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kemps Creek has a high level of cultural diversity, with 31.8% of its population born overseas and 42.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Kemps Creek, comprising 70.5% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups in Kemps Creek are Italian (19.3%), Australian (18.2%), and Other (14.2%).

Notably, Maltese (6.4%) Croatian (3.0%), and Serbian (1.7%) populations are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.0%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively.

Kemps Creek hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Kemps Creek as of the 2021 Census was 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 15-24 age group made up 15.8% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort constituted 10.1%. Post-Census data shows a decrease in median age from 44 to 42 between 2016 and 2021. The 35-44 age group increased from 10.9% to 15.9%, and the 5-14 cohort grew from 11.9% to 14.9%. Conversely, the 65-74 age group declined from 12.1% to 9.7%, and the 85+ group decreased from 3.2% to 1.7%. By 2041, projections indicate a significant expansion of the 45-54 age cohort, with an increase of 1,323 people (394%) from 336 to 1,660.