Dungog

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dungog reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Dungog statistical area (Lv2) is around 2,197. This figure reflects a growth of 214 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,983. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 2,067 residents based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), combined with an additional seven validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 399 persons per square kilometer. The Dungog area's growth rate of 10.8% between the 2021 Census and November 2025 exceeds both the non-metro area (5.7%) and state averages, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 78.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a 2021 base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Dungog area is expected to increase its population by 726 persons to reach 2,923 by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 27.9% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Dungog when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Dungog averaged around 9 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 48 homes. As of FY-26, 8 approvals have been recorded. This averages to approximately 3 new residents per home built annually between FY-21 and FY-25. New supply significantly lags demand, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition.

Developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties, reflected in an average construction value of $467,000. This financial year has seen $1.4 million in commercial approvals, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to Rest of NSW, where Dungog is 55.0% below the regional average per person. Limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, though recent periods have seen increased development activity. All new construction has been standalone homes, maintaining Dungog's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes.

With around 148 people per dwelling approval, Dungog exhibits growth area characteristics. Future projections estimate Dungog to add 613 residents by 2041. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Dungog has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are expected to impact this area. Notable projects include Hunter-Central Coast Renewable Energy Zone, Hunter Regional Plan 2041, Draft Greater Newcastle Metropolitan Plan 2036, and Newcastle Offshore Wind Project. The following list outlines those most likely to be relevant.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Dungog faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Dungog has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, and an unemployment rate of 5.0% as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of September 2025799 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.2% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Dungog lags at 47.4%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a notable concentration in other services, with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented, with only 14.8% of Dungog's workforce compared to 16.9% in Rest of NSW.

Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census working population vs resident population counts. In the 12 months prior, labour force decreased by 2.7% and employment declined by 3.3%, increasing unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points, compared to Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.5% and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dungog's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Dungog had a median taxpayer income of $38,693 and an average of $50,833. This is lower than the national average. Rest of NSW had a median of $52,390 and an average of $65,215 during this period. By September 2025, estimates suggest Dungog's median income will be approximately $42,121 and average $55,337, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%. The 2021 Census indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Dungog fall between the 4th and 9th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 32.3% of residents (709 people) earn between $400 - 799, unlike surrounding regions where 29.9% earn between $1,500 - 2,999. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Dungog, with only 84.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

Dungog is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dungog's latest Census revealed 94.6% houses and 5.4% other dwellings. Non-Metro NSW had 90.9% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dungog was 46.8%, with mortgages at 28.8% and rentals at 24.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Dungog was $300, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $340. Nationally, Dungog's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,300 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Dungog features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.5% of all households, including 19.7% couples with children, 29.5% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.5%, with lone person households at 36.3% and group households making up 1.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Dungog faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.0%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 10.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.8%) and certificates (30.5%).

A notable 22.7% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, comprising 8.4% in primary, 6.7% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 32 active transport stops operating within Dungog. These comprise a mix of train and bus services. They are serviced by 24 individual routes, collectively providing 1084 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 203 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 154 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 33 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Dungog is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Dungog faces significant health challenges with various conditions impacting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 47% (~1034 people) have private health cover, compared to 53.7% across Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.4%) and mental health issues (9.0%), while 55.6% report being free from medical ailments, compared to 62.6% in Rest of NSW.

Dungog has 31.1% residents aged 65 and over (683 people), higher than the 16.9% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Dungog placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Dungog's population showed low cultural diversity, with 95.5% born in Australia and 95.5% being citizens. English was the primary language spoken at home by 99.2%. Christianity dominated Dungog's religious landscape at 63.3%, compared to 55.7% in the Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.8%), English (33.4%), and Irish (9.3%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher than average at 6.7% versus 6.3%. Macedonian and Welsh groups also showed notable divergences with 0.1% each in Dungog.

Dungog ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Dungog's median age is 51 years, significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and the Australian median of 38. The 75-84 cohort is notably over-represented in Dungog at 11.9%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 7.9%. This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 9.7% to 10.9%, and the 35 to 44 cohort has risen from 8.7% to 9.8%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group has declined from 15.3% to 13.6%, and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 11.1% to 9.9%. By 2041, Dungog's age composition is expected to shift notably. Leading this demographic change, the 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 41%, reaching 369 people from 261.