Dungog

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dungog reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Dungog's population is estimated at around 2,166, reflecting an increase of 183 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 9.2% change from the previous population count of 1,983. The estimated resident population of 2,097, derived from AreaSearch's examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date, indicates this increase. Dungog's population density is approximately 393 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's growth rate exceeded both the non-metro area (5.1%) and the state average during this period. Interstate migration contributed around 78.0% of overall population gains in recent periods, with other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also playing positive roles.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. These projections indicate that Dungog is forecast to increase its population by 721 persons to 2041, representing a total gain of 29.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Dungog when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Dungog had around 7 dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 37 homes were approved, with 2 more in FY-26 so far. Each new dwelling brought about an average of 4 new residents per year over the past five financial years.

This demand outstrips supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition, with new dwellings constructed at an average cost of $467,000. In FY-26, $118,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's residential focus. Compared to Rest of NSW, Dungog has significantly less development activity, 65.0% below the regional average per person, which can strengthen demand and prices for existing properties. Recent building activity consists solely of detached dwellings, maintaining Dungog's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes.

With around 259 people per approval, Dungog reflects a transitioning market. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates Dungog will grow by 639 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Dungog has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No infrastructure changes are anticipated in the area at this time. No projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could impact the region. Key initiatives include Hunter-Central Coast Renewable Energy Zone, Hunter Regional Plan 2041, Draft Greater Newcastle Metropolitan Plan 2036, and Newcastle Offshore Wind Project.

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The labour market performance in Dungog lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Dungog has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 5.2%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025781 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.6% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Dungog lags at 47.4%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a strong specialization in other services, with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level.

However, health care & social assistance employs just 14.8% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 16.9%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, labour force decreased by 4.5% and employment decreased by 5.9%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 1.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.1%, labour force grew by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Dungog. These projections estimate that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates varying significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Dungog's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended 30 June 2022, Dungog had a median income among taxpayers of $38,693 with the average level standing at $50,833. This is lower than national averages which were $49,459 and $62,998 for Rest of NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% from financial year ended 30 June 2022 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $43,572 (median) and $57,243 (average). From the Census conducted on 10 August 2021, household, family and personal incomes in Dungog all fall between the 4th and 9th percentiles nationally. In terms of income distribution, the $400 - 799 earnings band captures 32.3% of the community (699 individuals), differing from metropolitan regions where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Dungog, with only 84.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

Dungog is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Dungog, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 94.6% houses and 5.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 90.9% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dungog was at 46.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (28.8%) or rented (24.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,300, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Dungog was recorded at $300, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $340. Nationally, Dungog's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Dungog features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.5% of all households, including 19.7% couples with children, 29.5% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.5%, with lone person households at 36.3% and group households making up 1.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Dungog faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.0%, substantially below NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (8.8%) and certificates (30.5%). A substantial 22.7% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.4% in primary, 6.7% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education.

Dungog's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 930 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 952) offering balanced educational opportunities. The area serves as an education hub with 42.9 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 13.0, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Dungog has 29 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 26 individual routes that facilitate 1,113 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 203 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency stands at 159 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 38 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Dungog is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Dungog faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low at approximately 47%, covering around 1,020 people, compared to Rest of NSW's 51.9% and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.4%) and mental health issues (9.0%), while 55.6% report being free from medical ailments, compared to 62.6% in Rest of NSW.

Dungog has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 30.9% (669 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 16.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Dungog placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Dungog, as per the latest census data from June 2016, showed a lower than average cultural diversity. The majority of its population were born in Australia, with 95.5% being Australian-born and holding citizenship at the same rate. English was spoken exclusively at home by 99.2% of residents.

Christianity dominated religious affiliations in Dungog, accounting for 63.3%, which is higher than the regional average of 55.7%. The most prevalent ancestry groups were Australian (34.8%), English (33.4%), and Irish (9.3%). Notably, the Australian Aboriginal population was slightly overrepresented in Dungog at 6.7% compared to the regional average of 6.3%. Other ethnic groups with notable differences included Macedonian, present at 0.1% in Dungog versus no representation regionally, and Welsh, also at 0.5% both locally and regionally.

Dungog ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Dungog's median age is 51 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 75-84 cohort is notably over-represented in Dungog at 11.9%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.8%. This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 9.7% to 10.9%, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 8.7% to 9.9%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group has declined from 15.3% to 13.6%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 11.1% to 9.8%. By 2041, Dungog is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition, with the 75 to 84 group growing by 42% (109 people), reaching a total of 367 from 257.