Bathurst - South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bathurst - South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Bathurst - South's population is around 10,702 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a decrease of 50 people (0.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,752 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,491 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 41 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 285 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth of Australia's regional areas is projected, with the area expected to expand by 1,911 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 15.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Bathurst - South, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Bathurst - South has recorded around 29 residential properties granted approval annually, totalling 149 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 22 approvals have been recorded. Given population has fallen over the past period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice, while new dwellings are developed at an average value of $294,000. There have also been $4.9 million in commercial approvals this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character.

Relative to the Rest of NSW, Bathurst - South has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks in the 31st percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties. This activity is below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 46.0% detached houses and 54.0% medium and high-density housing. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The estimated count of 522 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low-activity development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Bathurst - South will gain 1,700 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Bathurst - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 17 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Bathurst Integrated Medical Centre, Bathurst Intermodal Transport Terminal, Bathurst Hospital Redevelopment, and Bathurst Industrial Park 4-Lot Subdivision, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Bathurst - South has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Bathurst - South features a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of 4.7%. As of December 2025, 5,187 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.7% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (58.9% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a low 11.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. In contrast, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 1.5% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 5.3%. With 1.1 workers for every resident, as at the Census, the area functions as an employment hub, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 2.5% while employment declined by 4.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.5 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Bathurst - South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Bathurst - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Bathurst - South SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $48,883 and an average of $57,486 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is below the national average, contrasting with Regional NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $53,214 (median) and $62,579 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, personal income ranks at the 29th percentile ($704 weekly), while household income sits at the 13th percentile. Distribution data shows the largest segment comprises 28.8% earning $800 - 1,499 weekly (3,082 residents), diverging from the surrounding region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 12th percentile.

Bathurst - South displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Bathurst - South, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 57.6% houses and 42.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Bathurst - South was lagging that of Regional NSW, at 28.5%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (18.4%) or rented (53.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional NSW average at $1,430, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $295, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Bathurst - South's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Bathurst - South features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 51.2% of all households, comprising 14.4% couples with children, 23.4% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 48.8%, with lone person households at 43.2% and group households comprising 5.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.0 people is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Bathurst - South shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's educational profile stands out regionally, with university qualification rates (27.1% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the SA4 region average of 19.3% and that of Rest of NSW (21.3%), reflecting the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees lead at 17.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (25.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in tertiary education, 8.5% in primary education, and 6.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 219 active transport stops operating within Bathurst - South, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 104 individual routes, collectively providing 2,385 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 107 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 86%, with 11% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 0.9 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A relatively low 11.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 340 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Bathurst - South is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Bathurst - South, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~5,094 people). This compares to 51.9% across Regional NSW, while the national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 11.7% and 10.2% of residents, respectively, while 58.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 21.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,284 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Bathurst - South ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Bathurst - South was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 80.6% of its population being citizens, 84.8% born in Australia, and 90.1% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Bathurst - South is Christianity, which makes up 54.2% of the people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 1.7% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Bathurst - South are English, comprising 29.4% of the population, Australian, comprising 27.8% of the population, and Irish, comprising 11.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is notably overrepresented at 4.7% of Bathurst - South (vs 4.6% regionally), Lebanese at 0.4% (vs 0.2%) and Scottish at 8.2% (vs 8.0%).

Bathurst - South's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

With a median age of 38, Bathurst - South is notably under the Regional NSW figure of 43 but is equivalent to the national norm of 38. The 25 - 34 age group shows strong representation at 17.9% compared to Regional NSW, whereas the 5 - 14 cohort is less prevalent at 7.7%. Following the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 16.7% to 17.9% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 15.5% to 16.5%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 11.4% to 10.1%. Demographic modeling suggests Bathurst - South's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. Leading the demographic shift, the 45 to 54 group will grow by 48% (514 people), reaching 1,580 from 1,065. The 65 to 74 group displays more modest growth at 0%, adding only 4 residents.