Lithgow

Lithgow has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of Nov 2025, Lithgow's population is estimated at around 4,985, reflecting an increase of 29 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 4,956. This change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of resident population at 4,946 based on latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024) and additional 37 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is around 833 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Lithgow's growth of 0.6% since census positions it within 2.3 percentage points of the SA4 region (2.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth in recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as base year.

For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as base year are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Lithgow's population is projected to decline by 102 persons according to this methodology. However, specific age cohorts like the 75 to 84 age group are expected to grow, with a projected increase of 62 people in this cohort over this period.

The level of residential development activity in Lithgow is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Lithgow saw around 11 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 59 homes. So far in FY-26, which began July 1st, 2021 and ends June 30th, 2022, 4 approvals have been recorded. Lithgow's population has been declining over recent years, with development activity adequate relative to its size, benefiting buyers as new properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $431,000, in line with regional trends.

Additionally, $3.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating limited commercial development focus compared to other areas. Relative to the Rest of NSW, Lithgow records roughly half the building activity per person while it places among the 17th percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing properties. This is lower than national averages, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 67.0% standalone homes and 33.0% medium and high-density housing, showing an expanding range of medium-density options creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 82.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

The estimated count of 888 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Lithgow should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Lithgow has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch are likely to impact the area significantly due to their influence on local infrastructure and planning initiatives. These key projects include Lithgow Area Resignalling (Stage 2), Lithgow Council Subdivision 47 Allotments, Great Western Highway Upgrade Program (West Section: Little Hartley to Lithgow), and Bowenfels Rail Viaducts. The following details those projects most relevant to the area's performance.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Lithgow recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Lithgow's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 4.0%, according to AreaSearch aggregated statistical area data.

As of June 2025, 2,241 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% compared to Rest of NSW's 3.7%. Workforce participation in Lithgow is lower at 47.2% versus the regional average of 56.4%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, accommodation & food services, and retail trade. The area specialises in mining, with an employment share 2.7 times higher than the regional level, but has limited agriculture, forestry & fishing jobs at 0.4% compared to the region's 5.3%.

Local employment opportunities appear limited, indicated by Census data showing fewer working residents than locals. In the year ending June 2025, Lithgow's labour force decreased by 2.2%, and employment fell by 3.8%, resulting in a 1.6 percentage point unemployment rate increase. This contrasts with Rest of NSW, where employment dropped by 0.1%, labour force grew by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Lithgow. Over five years, national employment is projected to grow by 6.6%, with a further increase of 7.1% in the subsequent five years. Applying these projections to Lithgow's current employment mix indicates local employment growth could reach 6.0% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is an illustrative extrapolation not accounting for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Lithgow has incomes below the national average. The median income is $48,159 and the average income is $60,708. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures of a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Lithgow would be approximately $54,232 (median) and $68,363 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Lithgow all fall between the 3rd and 12th percentiles nationally. The income distribution shows that the predominant cohort spans 31.1% of locals (1,550 people) in the $400 - $799 category, differing from the region where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 29.9%. The concentration of 41.4% in sub-$800 weekly brackets indicates economic challenges faced by a significant portion of the community. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Lithgow is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Lithgow, as per the latest Census, was 81.9% houses and 18.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 91.0% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lithgow stood at 41.0%, with the rest either mortgaged (23.4%) or rented (35.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,326, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,600. The median weekly rent in Lithgow was $280, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, Lithgow's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,326 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Lithgow features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 53.6% of all households, including 15.4% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 13.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 46.4%, with lone person households at 43.7% and group households making up 3.0%. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Lithgow faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 15.2%, substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (31.0%).

A substantial 24.2% of the population actively pursues formal education, including 9.1% in primary education, 6.4% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education. Lithgow's 4 schools have combined enrollment reaching 1,563 students while the area demonstrates varied educational conditions (ICSEA: 936). Education provision is balanced with 3 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups. The area functions as an education hub with 31.4 school places per 100 residents – significantly above the regional average of 13.8 – attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lithgow has 94 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are serviced by 59 individual routes, collectively providing 1,846 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 124 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 263 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 19 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Lithgow is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Lithgow faces significant health challenges affecting both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 51%, or roughly 2,540 people, have private health cover, which is relatively low compared to other areas. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (impacting 13.4% of residents) and mental health issues (affecting 11.0%). In comparison, 55.1% of Lithgow residents report having no medical ailments, lower than the 62.9% reported in Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 29.4%, or about 1,465 people, compared to the 23.1% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges similar to those faced by the general population.

Lithgow ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lithgow's population showed low cultural diversity, with 89.5% being citizens, 86.4% born in Australia, and 93.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 56.8%, compared to 59.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.9%), Australian (30.4%), and Irish (9.0%).

Notably, Welsh (1.0%) and Scottish (8.2%) were overrepresented in Lithgow compared to regional averages of 0.5% and 7.9% respectively.

Lithgow hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Lithgow's median age is 49, which is higher than the Rest of NSW figure at 43 and Australia's national average of 38. The 65-74 age group is notably over-represented in Lithgow at 15.3%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while those aged 5-14 are under-represented at 9.8%. This concentration of the 65-74 cohort is significantly higher than the national figure of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 9.6% to 10.7% of Lithgow's population. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has decreased from 14.7% to 13.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Lithgow's age structure. The number of residents aged 85 and over is projected to grow by 48 people (28%), from 174 to 223. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 74% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 25-34 age cohorts.