Lithgow

Lithgow has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the Lithgow statistical area (Lv2), and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Lithgow's population is estimated at around 5007 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 51 people (1.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4956 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4873, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 37 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 837 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Lithgow's 1.0% growth since census positions it within 1.6 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.6%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the Lithgow (SA2) population expected to shrink by 106 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to grow by 63 people.

The level of residential development activity in Lithgow is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Lithgow averaged approximately 11 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, between FY2021 and FY2025, around 59 homes were approved, with an additional 5 approved so far in FY2026. Despite a falling population during this period, development activity has been relatively adequate, which could be seen as positive for buyers.

The average value of new homes being built is $431,000, moderately above regional levels, indicating a focus on quality construction. In the current financial year, $4.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting Lithgow's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Lithgow shows roughly half the construction activity per person and ranks among the 17th percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer options but strengthening demand for established properties. This lower-than-average national activity could be attributed to the area's maturity and potential planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 67% standalone homes and 33% attached dwellings, indicating an expanding range of medium-density options, catering to various price brackets from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives.

This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and evolving lifestyle demands and affordability requirements, marking a significant change from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (82%). The estimated population per dwelling approval in Lithgow is 888 people, suggesting a quiet, low activity development environment. With population expected to remain stable or decline, there may be reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Lithgow has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified four projects that are expected to impact the area. Among these key projects are Lithgow Area Resignalling (Stage 2), Lithgow Council Subdivision 47 Allotments, Great Western Highway Upgrade Program (West Section: Little Hartley to Lithgow), and Bowenfels Rail Viaducts. The following list provides details on those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Lithgow faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Lithgow has a balanced workforce across white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 5.1%, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of September 2025, 2,172 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate at 1.2% above Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Lithgow lags behind the region at 47.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment sectors for Lithgow residents include health care & social assistance, accommodation & food services, and retail trade. The area specializes in mining, with an employment share 2.7 times higher than the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.4% compared to the region's 5.3%.

Between August 2024 and September 2025, Lithgow's labour force decreased by 3.4%, with employment declining by 5.2%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 1.8 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw a 0.5% employment drop, a 0.1% labour force contraction, and a 0.4% increase in unemployment over the same period. Statewide, NSW experienced a 0.03% employment contraction between November 2024 and November 2025, losing 2,260 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3% during this period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lithgow's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.0% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2023 shows Lithgow's median income is $48,159 and average income is $60,708. This is below the national average and Rest of NSW's median ($52,390) and average ($65,215). By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $52,426 (median) and $66,087 (average), based on an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Lithgow's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 3rd and 12th percentiles nationally. Most locals (31.1%, or 1,557 people) earn $400 - 799 weekly, differing from the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category is predominant at 29.9%. The concentration of 41.4% in sub-$800 brackets indicates economic challenges for a significant portion of Lithgow's community. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Lithgow is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Lithgow's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 81.9% houses and 18.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 91.0% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lithgow was at 41.0%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's rate. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (23.4%) or rented (35.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,326, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,600. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $280, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, Lithgow's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Lithgow features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 53.6% of all households, including 15.4% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 13.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 46.4%, with lone person households at 43.7% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.0 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Lithgow faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (31.0%). In total, 24.2% of the population is engaged in formal education.

This comprises 9.1% in primary education, 6.4% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lithgow's public transport system comprises 100 active stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 61 individual routes, facilitating 1,742 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 124 meters to the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 248 trips per day, equating to approximately 17 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Lithgow is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Lithgow faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents.

Approximately 51% (~2,552 people) have private health cover, which is relatively low. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 13.4% of residents) and mental health issues (impacting 11.0%). Conversely, 55.1% report no medical ailments, compared to 62.9% in the rest of NSW. Lithgow has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 29.3% (1,467 people), compared to 23.1% in the rest of NSW. The health outcomes among seniors generally align with those of the broader population.

Lithgow ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lithgow's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.5% of its population being citizens, 86.4% born in Australia, and 93.6% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Lithgow is Christianity, accounting for 56.8% of the population, compared to 59.9% across the Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups in Lithgow are English (30.9%), Australian (30.4%), and Irish (9.0%).

Notably, Welsh ethnicity is overrepresented at 1.0%, compared to 0.5% regionally, while Australian Aboriginal ethnicity stands at 4.7% (vs 4.9%) and Scottish ethnicity is at 8.2% (vs 7.9%).

Lithgow hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Lithgow's median age is 49, surpassing the Rest of NSW figure at 43 and Australia's at 38. The 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in Lithgow at 15.2%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while those aged 5-14 are under-represented at 9.8%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is higher than the national figure of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the population share of the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 9.6% to 10.7%, while the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 14.7% to 13.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Lithgow's age structure. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 46 people (27%), from 175 to 222, with senior residents aged 65 and above driving 79% of population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 25-34 age cohorts.