Blaxland - Warrimoo - Lapstone

Blaxland - Warrimoo - Lapstone is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone's population is around 19,274 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 281 people, a 1.5% rise since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 18,993 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 19,241 as of June 2024 and an additional 30 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 649 persons per square kilometer. Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone's growth of 1.5% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area average of 1.2%, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 52.7% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, lower quartile growth is anticipated, with Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone expected to grow by 116 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 0.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Blaxland - Warrimoo - Lapstone, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone has seen approximately 32 new home approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling 164 homes. As of FY26, 11 approvals have been recorded. The average construction value of these properties is $412,000. In terms of commercial development, $24.2 million in approvals have been recorded this financial year.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone has seen 15.0% less new development per person, placing it among the 25th percentile nationally for housing choices. Recent construction comprises 74.0% detached houses and 26.0% medium and high-density housing, reflecting a shift from the current housing mix of 95.0% houses. The area has an estimated 630 people per dwelling approval, indicating a quiet development environment. Population forecasts suggest Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone will gain 83 residents by 2041, with current development rates comfortably meeting demand and potentially supporting growth beyond projections.

Population forecasts indicate Blaxland - Warrimoo - Lapstone will gain 83 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Blaxland - Warrimoo - Lapstone has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Eleven infrastructure projects are identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Rail Infrastructure Upgrades at Blaxland Stations, Blaxland Town Centre Upgrade, Old Bathurst Road Safety Upgrades in Blaxland, and Thomas Park Upgrade. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

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The labour market strength in Blaxland - Warrimoo - Lapstone positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 1.1%.

As of September 2025, there are 10,502 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.1%, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is at 64.0%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries include education & training, health care & social assistance, and construction. Notably, education & training has an employment level that is 1.9 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services employ only 7.9% of local workers, lower than Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area may have limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by a decrease in labour force and employment over a 12-month period. Between September 2024 and August 2025, the labour force decreased by 4.1% while employment declined by 3.9%, causing unemployment to fall slightly by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% during this period. As of 25-November-2025, NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-2025 suggest that over five years, employment should increase by 6.8% in Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone, with a further increase of 7.1% expected over the following five years to reach a total of 13.9%.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone SA2 had one of Australia's highest incomes according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for the financial year 2022. Its median income was $61,811 and average income was $80,406, compared to Greater Sydney's respective figures of $56,994 and $80,856. Based on a 12.61% growth in the Wage Price Index since FY2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $69,605 (median) and $90,545 (average). The 2021 Census data ranked Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone's household, family, and personal incomes highly, between the 75th and 83rd percentiles nationally. In this suburb, 30.6% of individuals earned $1,500-$2,999 weekly, consistent with surrounding regions' 30.9%. A substantial proportion (36.5%) earned above $3,000 per week, indicating strong economic capacity. After housing costs, residents retained 87.4% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

Blaxland - Warrimoo - Lapstone is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone, as per the latest Census, 94.8% of dwellings were houses, with 5.1% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Sydney metro's 92.3% houses and 7.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone was 42.3%, similar to Sydney metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.9% and rented ones at 14.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,265, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,033. The median weekly rent was $440, compared to Sydney metro's $400. Nationally, Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,265 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Blaxland - Warrimoo - Lapstone features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 80.0% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 30.1% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 20.0%, with lone person households at 18.3% and group households making up 1.6%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.4.

Blaxland - Warrimoo - Lapstone shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone exceeds broader benchmarks. 37.1% of residents aged 15+ have university qualifications, compared to 23.9% in the SA4 region and 30.4% nationally. Bachelor degrees are most common at 22.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.8%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 12.1% and certificates at 22.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 178 active transport stops operating within Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone area. These include a mix of train and bus services. There are 75 individual routes servicing these stops, collectively facilitating 1,335 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 188 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 190 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Blaxland - Warrimoo - Lapstone's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks. Common health conditions are observed across both young and old age groups at a standard level.

The area has an exceptionally high private health cover rate of approximately 60% (11,525 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 54.4%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 8.8% and 8.3% of residents respectively. 67.5% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 64.1% in Greater Sydney. The area has 21.2% of residents aged 65 and over (4,078 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 24.3%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Blaxland - Warrimoo - Lapstone ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone had 85.0% of its population born in Australia, with 94.3% being citizens and 94.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 54.1%, compared to 47.1% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.3%), Australian (28.5%), and Irish (10.3%).

Dutch was notably overrepresented at 1.8% versus 1.6% regionally, Maltese at 1.0% versus 0.8%, and Hungarian at 0.4% versus 0.5%.

Blaxland - Warrimoo - Lapstone's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and slightly older than Australia's median of 38. Comparing the two areas, the 65-74 age group is notably over-represented locally at 11.5%, while the 25-34 cohort is under-represented at 8.0%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 5.9% to 7.6% of the population, while the 55-64 group has decreased from 12.8% to 11.4%, and the 25-34 group has dropped from 9.4% to 8.0%. Demographic projections suggest that Blaxland-Warrimoo-Lapstone's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 85+ cohort showing the strongest growth at 196%, adding 785 residents to reach 1,186. This demographic aging trend is expected to continue as residents aged 65 and older represent 99% of anticipated population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 15-24 age groups.