Lithgow

Lithgow has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Lithgow's population was approximately 12,380 as of November 2025. This figure represents a decrease of 5 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 12,385. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 12,281 in June 2024 and an additional 113 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 103 persons per square kilometer. Lithgow's growth rate of -0.0% since the census is within 2.9 percentage points of its SA4 region, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the population is projected to decline by 294 persons. However, specific age cohorts like the 35 to 44 age group are anticipated to grow, with an increase of 140 people expected in this cohort.

The level of residential development activity in Lithgow is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Lithgow has recorded approximately 27 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years from FY-18 to FY-22. This totals 136 homes approved during this period. As of FY-26, 8 approvals have been recorded. The population in Lithgow has fallen during this time, suggesting that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, providing good choice for buyers.

The average construction cost value of new properties is $431,000, aligning with regional patterns. In FY-26, $8.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating limited focus on commercial development compared to residential. Relative to the Rest of NSW, Lithgow shows substantially reduced construction activity, at 53.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. Recent construction in Lithgow comprises 70.0% standalone homes and 30.0% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets. This is a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (86.0%).

This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated population per dwelling approval in Lithgow is 994 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. With population projections showing stability or decline, housing demand pressures are expected to remain relatively stable, benefiting potential buyers.

Lithgow has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects that may affect this region. Notable ones include Lithgow Council Subdivision 47 Allotments, Lithgow Area Resignalling (Stage 2), Great Western Highway Upgrade Program (West Section: Little Hartley to Lithgow), and Bowenfels Rail Viaducts. The following list details those most relevant.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Lithgow faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Lithgow has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 4.4%.

At this time, 5,384 residents were employed, which is 0.8% higher than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Lithgow was significantly lower at 47.8%, compared to the Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The leading employment industries among Lithgow residents are health care and social assistance, public administration and safety, and retail trade. The area has a notable specialisation in mining, with an employment share 3.5 times higher than the regional level.

However, agriculture, forestry, and fishing have limited presence, with only 0.4% of employment compared to the regional average of 5.3%. While there are local employment opportunities, many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the 12-month period preceding June 2025, Lithgow's labour force decreased by 2.4%, and employment declined by 4.1%, leading to an unemployment rate increase of 1.8 percentage points. This contrasts with the Rest of NSW, where employment fell by 0.1%, labour force expanded by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data for NSW as of Nov-25 shows employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lithgow's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Lithgow SA2's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. The Lithgow SA2's median income among taxpayers is $48,799 and the average income stands at $61,515. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW which are $49,459 (median) and $62,998 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $54,953 (median) and $69,272 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Lithgow all fall between the 6th and 13th percentiles nationally. The data shows the $400 - 799 income bracket dominates with 28.3% of residents (3,503 people), differing from patterns across the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lithgow, with only 83.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 8th percentile nationally.

Lithgow is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Lithgow, as per the latest Census evaluation, 85.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 14.4% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. In contrast, Non-Metro NSW had 91.0% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lithgow stood at 41.2%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's rate. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 27.5%, while rented properties made up 31.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Lithgow was $1,462, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,600 and the national figure of $1,863. Weekly rent in Lithgow was recorded at $270, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300 and the national average of $375.

Lithgow features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 59.0% of all households, including 19.8% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 41.0%, with lone person households at 38.1% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Lithgow faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (32.7%). Educational participation is high at 27.6%, including 10.6% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lithgow's public transport system operates 230 active stops, consisting of both train and bus services. These stops are served by 59 distinct routes, facilitating a total of 1,881 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Lithgow is rated as excellent, with residents on average situated 133 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, service frequency averages 268 trips across all routes, translating to roughly 8 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lithgow is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Lithgow faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents.

Approximately 51% (~6,264 people) have private health cover, which is relatively low compared to other areas. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.5%) and mental health issues (10.1%). However, 58.1% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 62.9% in the rest of NSW. As of June 30, 20XX, 25.9% (3,210 people) of Lithgow's population is aged 65 and over, higher than the 23.1% state average. The health outcomes among seniors are generally aligned with those of the broader population.

Lithgow is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lithgow's population showed low cultural diversity, with 88.3% being citizens, 88.6% born in Australia, and 94.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 58.9%, compared to 59.9% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.0%), English (30.8%), and Irish (8.8%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher in Lithgow at 5.1% versus 4.9% regionally, Welsh at 0.7% versus 0.5%, and Scottish at 8.6% versus 7.9%.

Lithgow hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Lithgow's median age is 46, which is slightly higher than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and significantly greater than Australia's national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group constitutes a strong 9.3% of Lithgow's population compared to Rest of NSW, while the 5-14 cohort makes up a less prevalent 10.8%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 10.3% to 11.4% of Lithgow's population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 14.1% to 13.0%. By 2041, Lithgow is projected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. Notably, the 75 to 84 group is expected to grow by 10%, reaching 1,276 people from 1,157. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising 65% of projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 65 to 74 and 5 to 14 age cohorts.