Lithgow

Lithgow has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Lithgow's population was around 12,380 as of November 2025. This showed a decrease of 5 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 12,385. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,281 in June 2024 and an additional 113 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 103 persons per square kilometer. Lithgow's growth rate of -0.0% since the census was within 2.9 percentage points of its SA4 region, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections were used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations were applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, population projections indicated a decline of 294 persons overall, but growth was anticipated in specific age cohorts, notably the 35 to 44 age group with an increase of 140 people.

The level of residential development activity in Lithgow is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Lithgow has recorded approximately 27 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling 136 homes. As of FY-26, 10 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, indicating that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice. New properties are constructed at an average value of $290,000, consistent with regional patterns.

This year, $8.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting limited focus on commercial development. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Lithgow shows substantially reduced construction (53.0% below regional average per person), which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. This is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 70.0% standalone homes and 30.0% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 86.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated count of 994 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

With population projections showing stability or decline, Lithgow should see reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Lithgow has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects likely to affect this region. Notable ones include Lithgow Council Subdivision 47 Allotments, Lithgow Area Resignalling (Stage 2), Great Western Highway Upgrade Program (West Section: Little Hartley to Lithgow), and Bowenfels Rail Viaducts. The following list details those most relevant.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Lithgow faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Lithgow has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, featuring prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 5.4%.

As of September 2025, 5,296 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.6% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation stands at 47.8%, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and retail trade. Lithgow specializes in mining with an employment share three and a half times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.4% compared to the regional 5.3%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, Lithgow's labour force decreased by 3.6%, employment declined by 5.6%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 1.9 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.5%, labour force contracted by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4%. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%, lower than the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's projections from May-25 forecast national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific growth rates vary significantly. Applying these projections to Lithgow's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Lithgow SA2's median income among taxpayers was $48,799 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $61,515 during the same period. These figures were below those of Rest of NSW, which had median and average incomes of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated median and average incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $54,953 and $69,272 respectively. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Lithgow fall between the 6th and 13th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $400 - 799 dominates with 28.3% of residents (3,503 people), differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lithgow, with only 83.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 8th percentile nationally.

Lithgow is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The latest Census data shows that 85.6% of dwellings in Lithgow are houses, with the remaining 14.4% being semi-detached, apartments or other types. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW has 91.0% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lithgow stands at 41.2%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's figure. The majority of dwellings are either mortgaged (27.5%) or rented (31.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Lithgow is $1,462, lower than the Non-Metro NSW average of $1,600 and significantly below the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Lithgow is $270, compared to $300 in Non-Metro NSW and $375 nationally.

Lithgow features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.0% of all households, including 19.8% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 41.0%, with lone person households at 38.1% and group households making up 2.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Lithgow faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.2%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (32.7%). Educational participation is high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.6% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lithgow has 230 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 59 distinct routes that facilitate 1,881 weekly passenger trips in total. The average distance to the nearest stop for residents is 133 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 268 daily trips across all routes, equating to roughly 8 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lithgow is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Lithgow faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents.

Approximately 51%, or around 6,264 people, have private health cover, which is relatively low compared to other areas. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.5% of residents) and mental health issues (impacting 10.1%). Conversely, 58.1% claim to be free from any medical ailments, compared to 62.9% in the rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 25.9%, or 3,210 people, compared to 23.1% in the rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors generally align with those of the broader population.

Lithgow is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lithgow's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.3% of its population being citizens born in Australia who speak English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Lithgow, comprising 58.9% of the population, compared to 59.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (32.0%), English (30.8%), and Irish (8.8%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation is higher than regional averages at 5.1%, while Welsh (0.7%) and Scottish (8.6%) representation also exceeds regional percentages of 0.5% and 7.9% respectively.

Lithgow hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Lithgow's median age was 46 in the census data, slightly higher than Rest of NSW at 43 and significantly higher than Australia's national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group had strong representation at 9.3%, compared to Rest of NSW, while the 5-14 cohort was less prevalent at 10.8%. Post-2021 Census data showed that the 35-44 age group grew from 10.3% to 11.4% of Lithgow's population. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 14.1% to 13.0%. By 2041, Lithgow is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 75-84 group is projected to grow by 10%, reaching 1,276 people from the previous total of 1,157. This growth reflects an aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 65% of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 5-14 age cohorts.