Carlton
Statistical Area - sa2

Carlton has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Carlton's population was approximately 23,929 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 7,274 people from the 2021 Census count of 16,655. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,954 in June 2024 and the addition of 62 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 13,147 persons per square kilometer, placing Carlton in the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch, indicating high demand for land in the area. Carlton's growth rate of 43.7% since the 2021 Census exceeded both national (8.6%) and state averages, positioning it as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted using weighted aggregation for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas until 2041. Future trends indicate significant population growth in Carlton, with an expected increase of 8,336 persons to 2041, representing a total gain of 34.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Carlton among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Carlton has averaged approximately 50 new dwelling approvals annually. Development approval data is compiled by the ABS on a financial year basis, totaling 252 approvals over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, with no approvals recorded so far in FY-26. On average, 11.6 new residents have been associated with each home built annually over these five years. This supply lagging demand has led to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures, as developers focus on the premium segment with an average dwelling value of $721,000.

Commercial approvals this financial year amount to $293.0 million, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carlton has significantly less development activity, 82.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. All new construction in Carlton over this period has been medium or high-density housing, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. By 2041, Carlton is projected to grow by 8,361 residents.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Carlton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 54 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Metro Tunnel Parkville Station, Fitzroy Gasworks Site Redevelopment, Drummond House, and Elgin Towers Carlton Social Housing Redevelopment, as detailed below for relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Carlton has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Carlton has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 7.5% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.9%.

As of June 2025, 14,004 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 2.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Carlton was broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents included professional & technical services, accommodation & food, and health care & social assistance. Notably, employment levels in the accommodation & food industry were at 2.3 times the regional average, while construction had limited presence with 3.0% employment compared to the regional average of 9.7%.

There was 1.1 worker for every resident in Carlton as per the Census data, indicating it functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 5.9% while labour force increased by 7.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.0 percentage points in Carlton. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5%, the labour force grow by 4.0%, and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points during the same period. Providing broader context, state-level data from Sep-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year (adding 39,880 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. State's employment growth outpaced the national average of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 offer further insight into potential future demand within Carlton. These projections suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Carlton's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.0%% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Carlton's median income among taxpayers was $35,604 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $55,619 during the same period. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Carlton would be approximately $39,204 (median) and $61,242 (average) as of March 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Carlton all fell between the 19th and 20th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort in Carlton spans 26.0% of locals (6,221 people) with incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999. This pattern is similar to that seen in the broader area where 32.8% of residents fall within this income range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carlton, with only 75.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carlton features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carlton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 1.3% houses and 98.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 2.2% houses and 97.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carlton was 13.9%, similar to Melbourne metro's level, with mortgaged dwellings at 10.5% and rented ones at 75.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Carlton was $1,871, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,962. The median weekly rent in Carlton was $365, compared to Melbourne metro's $396. Nationally, Carlton's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,871 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $365 compared to the national figure of $375.

Carlton features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 36.4% of all households, consisting of 6.9% couples with children, 21.3% couples without children, and 5.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 63.6%, with lone person households at 45.5% and group households making up 18.2%. The median household size is 1.8 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Carlton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Carlton's residents aged 15+ exhibit high educational attainment, with 59.5% holding university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent (35.5%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (21.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Technical qualifications account for 13.9%, with advanced diplomas at 7.5% and certificates at 6.4%. Educational participation is notable, with 48.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 35.4% in tertiary, 2.5% in primary, and 2.1% in secondary education. Carlton's three schools have a combined enrollment of 577 students. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1057). Educational provision is balanced with two primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups. School capacity is limited, with 2.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 6.9, leading many families to seek schooling in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlton has 52 operational public transport stops. These include lightrail and bus services. There are 30 unique routes serving these stops, which together facilitate 17,559 weekly passenger journeys.

Carlton's residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 106 meters to the nearest stop. Daily service frequency across all routes averages 2,508 trips. This equates to approximately 337 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carlton's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Carlton's health outcomes show exceptional results, notably among younger age groups with a low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is held by approximately 48% of Carlton's total population (~11,390 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.0%. Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions in Carlton, affecting 10.1% and 7.0% of residents respectively. 76.9% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 79.8%. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 5.9% (1,409 people), which may require additional attention.

Carlton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlton has a highly diverse population, with 51.0% speaking a language other than English at home and 58.6% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carlton, accounting for 22.7% of its population. Buddhism is notably overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 6.6% versus 7.0%.

The top three ancestral groups in Carlton are Chinese (20.3%), Other (18.3%), and English (15.7%). Certain ethnic groups show notable variations: Spanish (0.8% vs regional 0.7%), Vietnamese (2.0% vs 2.0%), and Korean (0.9% vs regional 1.5%) are among those with distinct representations.

Carlton hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Carlton's median age was recorded as 24 years in the latest data, which is notably lower than Greater Melbourne's median age of 37 years and significantly below the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carlton has a higher concentration of residents aged 15-24 (40.4%), but fewer residents aged 5-14 (1.9%). This high concentration of 15-24 year-olds is well above the national percentage of 12.5%. Since the Census conducted in 2021, there has been a shift in median age down by 3.5 years to reach 24 years. Notably, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 30.7% to 40.4% of Carlton's population during this period. Conversely, the 35 to 44 age cohort has decreased from 10.9% to 8.5%, and the 45 to 54 age group has dropped from 6.3% to 4.4%. By the year 2041, Carlton is projected to experience significant shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 25 to 34 age group is expected to grow by 43%, adding 3,509 people to reach a total of 11,624 from the current figure of 8,114.