Carlton

Carlton has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Carlton's population is around 24,031 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 7,376 people (44.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,655 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,954 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 62 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 13,203 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area a highly sought resource. Carlton's 44.3% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national statistical areas is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 8,336 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 34.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Carlton among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Carlton has averaged around 50 new dwelling approvals each year, totalling 252 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 0 approvals have been recorded. Given an average of 11.6 new residents per year arriving per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand significantly exceeds new supply, which usually results in price growth and increased buyer competition, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $587,000, revealing that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. There have also been $293.0 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Carlton has significantly less development activity (82.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. Meanwhile, new construction has been completely comprised of medium and high-density housing. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers.

Future projections show Carlton adding 8,259 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Carlton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 40thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 52 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Elgin Towers Carlton Social Housing Redevelopment, Drummond House, Brenan Place, and the Australian Institute for Infectious Disease (AIID), with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Carlton shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Carlton has a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of 6.7%, and 5.2% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 15,180 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.9% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a high 41.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in professional & technical, accommodation & food, and health care & social assistance. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in accommodation & food, with employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average. Meanwhile, construction has a limited presence with 3.0% employment compared to 9.7% regionally. With 1.1 workers for every resident, as at the Census, the area functions as an employment hub, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.2% and the labour force increased by 5.1%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne, where employment rose by 2.4%, the labour force grew by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Carlton. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Carlton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The Carlton SA2's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Carlton SA2's median income among taxpayers is $35,381 and the average income stands at $54,884, which compares to figures for Greater Melbourne's of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $38,300 (median) and $59,412 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Carlton all fall between the 19th and 19th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, 26.0% of the population (6,248 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 75.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 11th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carlton features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Carlton, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 1.3% houses and 98.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Carlton was lagging that of Melbourne metro, at 13.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (10.5%) or rented (75.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Melbourne metro average at $1,871, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $365, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Carlton's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Carlton features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 36.4% of all households, comprising 6.9% couples with children, 21.3% couples without children, and 5.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 63.6%, with lone person households at 45.5% and group households comprising 18.2% of the total. The median household size of 1.8 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Carlton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Carlton significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 59.5% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% in Australia and 33.4% in VIC. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 35.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (21.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Technical qualifications represent 13.9% of educational achievements for residents aged 15+; advanced diplomas (7.5%) and certificates (6.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 48.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 35.4% in tertiary education, 2.5% in primary education, and 2.1% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 54 active transport stops operating within Carlton, comprising a mix of light rail and buses. These stops are serviced by 29 individual routes, collectively providing 26,524 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 105 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 28%, with 24% walking and 15% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 0.3 per dwelling, below the regional average. A high 41.6% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 3,789 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 491 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carlton is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Carlton faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~11,246 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 10.1% and 7.0% of residents, respectively, while 76.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 6.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,441 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Carlton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 51.0% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 58.6% born overseas. The main religion in Carlton is Christianity, which makes up 22.7% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Buddhism, which comprises 6.6% of the population, compared to 4.2% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Carlton are Chinese, comprising 20.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 6.5%, Other, comprising 18.3% of the population, and English, comprising 15.7% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Spanish is notably overrepresented at 0.8% of Carlton (vs 0.4% regionally), Vietnamese at 2.0% (vs 1.9%) and Korean at 0.9% (vs 0.3%).

Carlton hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Carlton's median age of 24 years stands notably under Greater Melbourne's 37 as well as significantly lower than the 38-year national average. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Carlton has a higher concentration of 15 - 24 residents (39.6%) but fewer 5 - 14 year-olds (1.8%). This 15 - 24 concentration is well above the national 12.5%. Since the 2021 Census, younger residents have shifted the median age down by 3.3 years to 24. Notable shifts include the 15 to 24 age group, which has grown from 30.7% to 39.6% of the population. Conversely, the 35 to 44 cohort has declined from 10.9% to 8.7% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 6.3% to 4.4%. By 2041, Carlton is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 41% (3,357 people), reaching 11,624 from 8,266.