Carlton
Statistical Area - sa2

Carlton has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Carlton's population was approximately 23,922 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 7,267 people, a rise of 43.6% since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 16,655. The change is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 23,954 in June 2024 and an additional 58 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 13,144 persons per square kilometer, placing Carlton in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area highly sought after. Carlton's growth rate of 43.6% since the 2021 census exceeded both the national average (8.9%) and the state average, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends forecast a significant increase in the top quartile of national statistical areas, with Carlton expected to grow by 8,336 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, recording an overall gain of 35.0% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Carlton among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Carlton has averaged approximately 50 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 252 homes. As of FY-26, there have been 0 approvals recorded to date. Historically, between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 11.6 new residents arrived per year for each dwelling constructed. This indicates a significant demand exceeding supply, which often leads to price growth and increased buyer competition.

The average construction value of new properties is $587,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, there have been $293.0 million in commercial approvals, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carlton has significantly less development activity, 82.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction often reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Furthermore, this is lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

All new construction in Carlton has been comprised of medium and high-density housing, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. Future projections estimate Carlton will add 8,368 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Carlton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 54 projects that could affect this region. Notable initiatives include Drummond House, Elgin Towers Carlton Social Housing Redevelopment, Australian Institute for Infectious Disease (AIID), and Argyle SQ. The following details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Carlton shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Carlton's workforce is highly educated with professional services well-represented. The unemployment rate was 7.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.9%.

As of June 2025, Carlton had 14,004 residents employed, an unemployment rate of 7.4%, and workforce participation at 63.8%. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical (34.2%), accommodation & food (20.5%), and health care & social assistance (13.9%) sectors. The area has a notable concentration in accommodation & food, with employment levels at 2.3 times the regional average. Construction has limited presence, with 3.0% employment compared to 9.7% regionally.

There are 1.1 workers for every resident, indicating Carlton functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.9%, labour force grew by 7.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1 percentage point to 7.4%. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5%, labour force grow by 4.0%, and unemployment increase by 0.5 percentage points to 4.6%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) suggest Carlton's employment could grow by approximately 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against Carlton's employment mix.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Carlton's median income among taxpayers was $35,604 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $55,619 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. By September 2025, estimated median and average incomes in Carlton would be approximately $39,933 and $62,382 based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022. Census data shows that household, family and personal incomes in Carlton all fall between the 19th and 20th percentiles nationally. In terms of income distribution, 26.0% of Carlton's population (6,219 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - 2,999 range, which is consistent with broader trends in the surrounding region where 32.8% fall into this category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carlton, with only 75.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carlton features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carlton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 1.3% houses and 98.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 2.2% houses and 97.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carlton was at 13.9%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 10.5% and rented dwellings at 75.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Carlton was $1,871, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,962. Median weekly rent in Carlton was $365, compared to Melbourne metro's $396. Nationally, Carlton's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $375.

Carlton features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 36.4% of all households, including 6.9% that are couples with children, 21.3% that are couples without children, and 5.1% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 63.6%, with lone person households at 45.5% and group households comprising 18.2%. The median household size is 1.8 people, which matches the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Carlton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Carlton's residents aged 15+ have a higher university qualification rate at 59.5% compared to Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. This includes bachelor degrees (35.5%), postgraduate qualifications (21.3%), and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Technical qualifications account for 13.9%, consisting of advanced diplomas (7.5%) and certificates (6.4%). Educational participation is notably high at 48.2%, with 35.4% in tertiary education, 2.5% in primary education, and 2.1% pursuing secondary education.

Carlton's three schools have a combined enrollment of 577 students. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1057). Education provision is balanced with two primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups. Local school capacity is limited at 2.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 6.9, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlton has 52 active public transport stops, consisting of both light rail and bus services. These stops are served by 30 different routes, which together facilitate 17,559 weekly passenger journeys. The city's transport accessibility is deemed excellent, with residents on average situated just 106 meters from the nearest stop.

Daily service frequency averages 2,508 trips across all routes, translating to around 337 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carlton's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Carlton's health outcomes show excellent results, with younger age groups having particularly low prevalence rates for common health conditions. Approximately 48% (~11,386 people) of Carlton residents have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.0%. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.3%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions in Carlton, affecting 10.1 and 7.0% of residents respectively. A total of 76.9% of Carlton residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 79.8%. Carlton has a higher proportion of older residents (aged 65 and over), at 5.9% (1,409 people), than the broader population.

Carlton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlton has a population where 51.0% speak a language other than English at home, and 58.6% were born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carlton, with 22.7% of its residents identifying as such. Notably, Buddhism is more prevalent in Carlton compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 6.6% versus 7.0%.

The top three ancestry groups in Carlton are Chinese (20.3%), Other (18.3%), and English (15.7%). Some ethnicities have distinct representations: Spanish (0.8%) and Vietnamese (2.0%) are equally represented compared to regional figures, while Korean is underrepresented at 0.9% versus 1.5%.

Carlton hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Carlton's median age of 24 years is notably lower than Greater Melbourne's 37 and significantly below the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carlton has a higher concentration of residents aged 15-24 (40.4%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (1.9%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is well above the national average of 12.5%. Since the Census in 2021, younger residents have shifted Carlton's median age down by 3.5 years to 24. The population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 30.7% to 40.4%, while the 35 to 44 group has declined from 10.9% to 8.5% and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 6.3% to 4.4%. By 2041, Carlton's age composition is expected to see notable shifts. The 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow by 43%, adding 3,512 people and reaching a total of 11,624 from the current 8,111 residents.