Carlton

Carlton has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Carlton's population is around 25,267 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 8,612 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,655 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 25,267 from the ABS as of June 2025 and an additional 60 validated new addresses since the Census date. Carlton's population density ratio is 13,883 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carlton's growth rate of 51.7% since the 2021 census exceeded the state (9.3%) and the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends forecast a significant population increase, with the area expected to grow by 7,131 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 28.2% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Carlton among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Carlton has averaged approximately 50 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 252 homes. As of FY-26 so far, 248 approvals have been recorded. On average, between FY-21 and FY-25, Carlton has seen around 11.6 new residents per year for each dwelling constructed. This high demand coupled with limited supply typically drives price growth and increased buyer competition.

The average construction value of new properties in Carlton is $587,000, indicating that developers are targeting the premium market segment. In FY-26, there have been $293.0 million in commercial approvals, reflecting robust local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carlton has significantly less development activity, being 81.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction often reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Nationally, Carlton's development levels are also lower, suggesting market maturity or possible development constraints.

All new construction in Carlton has been medium or high-density housing, offering affordable entry points and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Carlton is projected to add 7,131 residents by 2041. If current development rates persist, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Carlton has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 50 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Elgin Towers Carlton Social Housing Redevelopment, Drummond House, Australian Institute for Infectious Disease (AIID), and Queen Victoria Market Precinct Renewal. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Carlton shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Carlton's workforce is highly educated with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 6.7% as of December 2025. Employment grew by an estimated 5.2% over the past year.

As of December 2025, Carlton had 15,180 residents employed while its unemployment rate was 1.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Carlton was lower at 66.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 41.6% of Carlton residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical services, accommodation & food, and health care & social assistance sectors.

Notably, employment in accommodation & food is 2.3 times the regional average, while construction has a limited presence at 3.0% compared to the regional average of 9.7%. As of the Census, there were 1.1 workers for every resident, indicating Carlton functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.2% and labour force grew by 5.1%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate of 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4%, labour force grow by 2.8%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Carlton's employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against Carlton's employment mix.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Carlton SA2's median income among taxpayers was $35,381 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $54,884 during the same period. These figures are lower than Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. By March 2026, based on a 9.62% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, estimated median and average incomes for Carlton SA2 would be approximately $38,785 and $60,164. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Carlton fall between the 19th and 19th percentiles nationally. In terms of income distribution, 26.0% of Carlton's population (6,569 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - 2,999 range, which is consistent with broader trends in the surrounding region showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carlton, with only 75.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carlton features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carlton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 1.3% houses and 98.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasted with Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carlton stood at 13.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 10.5% and rented ones at 75.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,871, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Carlton was $365, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Carlton's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,871 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $365 against the national figure of $375.

Carlton features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 36.4% of all households, including 6.9% couples with children, 21.3% couples without children, and 5.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 63.6%, with lone person households at 45.5% and group households comprising 18.2%. The median household size is 1.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Carlton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Carlton has a notably high level of educational attainment among its residents aged 15 and above, with 59.5% holding university qualifications. This figure exceeds the national average of 30.4% and the Victorian state average of 33.4%. The area's educational advantage is evident in various qualifications: Bachelor degrees are most common at 35.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (21.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Technical qualifications make up 13.9% of residents' educational achievements, with advanced diplomas accounting for 7.5% and certificates for 6.4%.

Carlton also has a high level of current educational participation, at 48.2%, which includes 35.4% in tertiary education, 2.5% in primary education, and 2.1% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlton has 54 active public transport stops offering a mix of lightrail and bus services. These are served by 29 routes, collectively facilitating 26,524 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is high, with residents on average located 105 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Carlton's residential nature. Car remains the primary mode of transport at 28%, followed by walking (24%) and train (15%). Vehicle ownership averages 0.3 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 41.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 3,789 trips per day, equating to approximately 491 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Carlton is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Carlton faces significant health challenges as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high among both younger and older age cohorts, with mental health issues and asthma being the most common conditions, affecting 10.1% and 7.0% of residents respectively. Only 47% of Carlton's population (~11,824 people) has private health cover, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

Despite this, 76.9% of Carlton residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, slightly higher than the 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are relatively healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has a lower proportion of residents aged 65 and over (5.8%, or 1,465 people) compared to Greater Melbourne (15.0%), but this age group still faces notable health challenges.

Carlton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlton has a high level of cultural diversity, with 51.0% speaking a language other than English at home and 58.6% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carlton, making up 22.7%. Buddhism is more prevalent in Carlton at 6.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.2%.

The top ancestry groups are Chinese (20.3%), Other (18.3%), and English (15.7%). Notably, Spanish (0.8% vs regional 0.4%), Vietnamese (2.0% vs 1.9%), and Korean (0.9% vs 0.3%) are overrepresented in Carlton.

Carlton hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Carlton has a median age of 23, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 15-24 are particularly prominent, making up 41.8% of Carlton's population, compared to just 1.7% for the 5-14 age group. This concentration is well above the national figure of 12.7%. Post-2021 Census data indicates a rejuvenation in Carlton's population, with the median age falling from 27 to 23 years between censuses. Specifically, the proportion of the population aged 15-24 grew from 30.7% to 41.8%, while the 35-44 cohort declined from 10.9% to 8.5% and the 45-54 group dropped from 6.3% to 4.1%. Looking ahead, demographic projections for Carlton suggest significant shifts in its age structure by 2041. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to expand notably, increasing by 2,979 people (35%) from 8,456 to 11,436.