Carlton

Carlton has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Carlton's population was around 24,031 as of February 2026. This reflected an increase of 7,376 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,655. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,954 in June 2024 and an additional 62 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 13,203 persons per square kilometer, placing Carlton in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carlton's growth rate of 44.3% since the 2021 census exceeded both the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of this population increase.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Carlton is forecasted to grow by 8,336 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 34.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Carlton among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Carlton has averaged approximately 50 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 252 homes. As of FY-26, no approvals have been recorded yet. On average, 11.6 new residents per year have arrived for each dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating significant demand exceeding supply, which typically drives price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction value of new properties has been $587,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year has seen $293.0 million in commercial approvals, reflecting high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carlton has significantly less development activity, 82.0% below the regional average per person, which may reinforce demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is also lower than national levels, potentially indicating market maturity or development constraints. All new construction in Carlton has been comprised of medium and high-density housing, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Carlton is projected to add 8,259 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Carlton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 40thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 52 projects that could impact the area. Notable projects include Elgin Towers Carlton Social Housing Redevelopment, Drummond House, Brenan Place, and Australian Institute for Infectious Disease (AIID). The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Carlton remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Carlton has an educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 6.7% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 6.5%.

As of that date, 15,041 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 41.6% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment in Carlton is concentrated in professional & technical services, accommodation & food, and health care & social assistance.

Notably, employment in accommodation & food is at 2.3 times the regional average, while construction has a limited presence with only 3.0% of employment compared to the regional average of 9.7%. The area functions as an employment hub with 1.1 workers per resident, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 6.5% and labour force grew by 6.4%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable at 6.7%. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment increase to 5.0%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carlton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Carlton SA2's median income among taxpayers was $35,381 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $54,884 during the same period. In Greater Melbourne, the median and average incomes were $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. By September 2025, estimated median and average incomes in Carlton SA2 would be approximately $38,300 and $59,412 based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%. According to Census data, household, family, and personal incomes in Carlton all fall between the 19th and 19th percentiles nationally. In income distribution, 26.0% of Carlton's population (6,248 individuals) have incomes within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. This is consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region where 32.8% fall into the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carlton, with only 75.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carlton features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carlton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 1.3% houses and 98.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carlton was at 13.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 10.5% and rented ones at 75.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,871, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Carlton was $365, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Carlton's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,871 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $365 compared to the national figure of $375.

Carlton features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 36.4% of all households, including 6.9% that are couples with children, 21.3% that are couples without children, and 5.1% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 63.6%, with lone person households at 45.5% and group households comprising 18.2%. The median household size is 1.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Carlton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Carlton has a notably high level of educational attainment, with 59.5% of its residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications. This figure exceeds the national average of 30.4% and the Victorian state average of 33.4%. The area's educational advantage is evident in various qualification types: Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 35.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (21.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Technical qualifications make up 13.9% of residents' educational achievements, with advanced diplomas accounting for 7.5% and certificates for 6.4%.

Carlton also has a high level of current educational participation, with 48.2% of its residents enrolled in formal education. This includes 35.4% in tertiary education, 2.5% in primary education, and 2.1% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlton has 54 active public transport stops, including lightrail and bus services. These stops are served by 29 different routes, providing a total of 26,524 weekly passenger trips. The average distance to the nearest stop for residents is 105 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. Most commuters travel outward from Carlton. Car remains the primary mode of transport at 28%, followed by walking (24%) and train (15%). Vehicle ownership averages 0.3 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 41.6% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes is an average of 3,789 trips per day, equating to approximately 491 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Carlton is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Carlton faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is very low, at approximately 47% of the total population (around 11,246 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 10.1 and 7.0% of residents respectively. However, 76.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 6.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,441 people), lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne.

Carlton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlton has a high level of cultural diversity, with 51.0% speaking a language other than English at home and 58.6% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carlton, making up 22.7% of its population. Buddhism is overrepresented in Carlton compared to Greater Melbourne, with 6.6% versus 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (20.3%), Other (18.3%), and English (15.7%). Spanish (0.8%), Vietnamese (2.0%), and Korean (0.9%) ethnicities are notably overrepresented in Carlton compared to regional averages of 0.4%, 1.9%, and 0.3% respectively.

Carlton hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Carlton's median age was recorded as 24 years in the Census of 2021, which is significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's median age of 37 and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carlton has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (39.6%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (1.8%). This concentration of young adults is notably higher than the national average of 12.5%. Since the previous Census, there has been a significant shift in the median age, decreasing by 3.3 years to reach 24. The most notable changes include an increase in the proportion of residents aged 15-24 from 30.7% to 39.6%, and decreases in the proportions of residents aged 35-44 (from 10.9% to 8.7%) and those aged 45-54 (from 6.3% to 4.4%). By the year 2041, Carlton's age composition is expected to change significantly. The demographic shift will be led by a significant growth in the 25-34 age group, which is projected to increase by 41%, adding 3,357 people to reach a total of 11,624 residents from its previous count of 8,266.