Innisfail Estate

An assessment of population growth drivers in Innisfail Estate reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Innisfail Estate statistical area (Lv2), as estimated by AreaSearch, was around 1,524 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 70 people from the 2021 Census total of 1,454, marking a growth rate of approximately 4.8%. The resident population estimate of 1,498 by AreaSearch in June 2024, combined with validation of 12 new addresses since the Census date, contributed to this increase. This results in a population density ratio of 474 persons per square kilometer, indicating ample space for development. Comparing this growth rate to the broader SA3 area's 5.7% growth demonstrates Innisfail Estate's competitive fundamentals, with its growth rate being within 0.9 percentage points of the SA3 area's figure. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 79.0% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are used, released in 2023 with a base year of 2021. However, these state projections lack age category splits; thus, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings aligned with ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 using a base year of 2022. Looking ahead, projections indicate a decline in overall population by 47 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to expand by 17 people over this period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Innisfail Estate, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Innisfail Estate had 3 dwelling approvals annually over the past five years, totalling 17. This low development activity is typical of rural areas with modest housing needs and limited construction activity due to local demand and infrastructure capacity. Yearly growth figures and relativities can vary significantly based on individual projects.

Innisfail Estate's development activity is lower than Rest of Qld and national averages. Recent construction comprised 50% standalone homes and 50% attached dwellings, reflecting affordability requirements and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift differs from the current housing mix of 75% houses, likely due to reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands. With around 333 people per dwelling approval, Innisfail Estate is a low density area. Its stable or declining population may reduce housing pressure, potentially benefiting buyers.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, Innisfail Estate should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Innisfail Estate has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No changes were identified by AreaSearch that could significantly affect the region's performance. Notably, projects such as Ella Bay Integrated Resort and Residential Community, North Queensland Super Hub, North and Far North Queensland REZs, and Queensland National Land Transport Network Maintenance are anticipated to have a substantial impact on the area, with the latter being of particular relevance.

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Employment conditions in Innisfail Estate face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Innisfail Estate has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

As of September 2025638 residents are employed. The unemployment rate is 9.8%, which is 1.6% higher than the Rest of Queensland's rate of 8.2%. Workforce participation in Innisfail Estate lags behind at 50.5%, compared to the Rest of Queensland's 59.1%. Innisfail Estate has a significant employment specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share of 36.7% compared to the regional level of 7%.

Meanwhile, construction has limited presence with 3.6% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force in Innisfail Estate decreased by 0.7%, while employment decreased by 4.3%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 3.4 percentage points. In contrast, the Rest of Queensland experienced employment growth of 1.7% and labour force growth of 2.1%, with a slight increase in unemployment rate. As of 25-November-2025, Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01%, losing 1,210 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Innisfail Estate's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 5.7% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The suburb of Innisfail Estate had a median income among taxpayers of $46,503 and an average income of $55,712 in the financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures compare to Rest of Qld's median income of $53,146 and average income of $66,593 for the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $51,111 (median) and $61,233 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Innisfail Estate all fall between the 16th and 21st percentiles nationally. The largest income segment comprises 28.8% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (438 residents), reflecting a similar pattern seen in the broader area where 31.7% occupy this range. Housing costs are modest with 86.8% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 20th percentile nationally.

Innisfail Estate is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Innisfail Estate's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.0% houses and 25.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Qld's 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Innisfail Estate was at 33.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 19.2% and rented ones at 47.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,277, below Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,300. Weekly rent in Innisfail Estate was $230, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $250. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863 and rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Innisfail Estate features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 63.5% of all households, including 25.2% couples with children, 26.0% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.5%, with lone person households at 31.1% and group households making up 3.8%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Qld.

Innisfail Estate faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 14.3%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This disparity presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 9.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are common, with 39.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (28.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 31.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 13.0% in primary, 9.3% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Innisfail Estate shows that there are ten active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with two individual routes providing service. Together, these routes offer 26 weekly passenger trips in total.

The accessibility of transport within the estate is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 152 meters away from the nearest transport stop on average. The service frequency across all routes averages three trips per day, which equates to approximately two weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Innisfail Estate is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Innisfail Estate faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (around 751 people), compared to 46.8% across the rest of Queensland. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 9.0 and 6.7% of residents respectively. Conversely, 68.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 68.1% across the rest of Queensland. The area has 21.5% of residents aged 65 and over (327 people), which is lower than the 23.6% in the rest of Queensland, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Innisfail Estate was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Innisfail Estate's population showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 27.1% born overseas and 30.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 55.2%. The 'Other' religious category comprised 19.0%, significantly higher than the Rest of Qld average of 3.3%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian parents made up 19.4%, Other 17.0% (significantly higher than the regional average of 8.9%), and English 16.7% (notably lower than the regional average of 23.1%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 10.2% compared to the region's 11.3%, Italian at 9.2% versus 7.5%, and Maltese at 2.1% against 1.1%.

Innisfail Estate's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Innisfail Estate is 39 years, which is lower than Rest of Qld's average of 41 but close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are prominent at 12.6%, while the 45-54 group is smaller at 8.9% compared to Rest of Qld. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 11.2% to 12.9% of the population, while the 45-54 cohort has declined from 10.2% to 8.9%. By 2041, demographic projections show that the 75-84 age cohort is expected to increase by 16%, from 96 to 111 people. The combined 65+ age groups are projected to account for 78% of total population growth. Conversely, the 0-4 and 45-54 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.