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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Tolga has an estimated 3,570 residents, up from 3,177 at the 2021 Census — a change of 393 people, or 12.4%. Growth has averaged 3.2% a year over five years, faster than 79% of areas nationally. 163 new addresses have been validated here since Census night. Interstate and internal migration accounts for 66.0% of that increase. Density is about 42 people per square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
Estimates from AreaSearch incorporating ABS population data and verified new addresses indicate the population of the suburb of Tolga stands at approximately 3,570 as of May 2026. This represents an expansion of 393 residents (12.4%) relative to the 2021 Census, which recorded 3,177 people. This shift is derived from a June 2025 ABS ERP release indicating a resident population of 3,529, supplemented by 163 validated new addresses registered since the Census. Such a population size results in a density of 41 persons per square kilometer, indicating a spacious residential environment.
The 12.4% rate of growth since the 2021 census outpaced both the SA3 area (7.3%) and the SA4 region, establishing the suburb of Tolga as a local growth leader. The gains were primarily supported by interstate migration, which accounted for roughly 66.0% of the overall population rise in recent times. Projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 utilizing 2022 as a baseline year from the ABS and Geoscience Australia are utilized. For SA2 divisions lacking this dataset and for horizons beyond 2032, Queensland State Government projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are substituted. Because these state-level projections omit age breakdowns, AreaSearch scales cohort growth proportionally using ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 figures. Looking at future demographic trends, the suburb of Tolga is projected to experience population expansion slightly below the median of national regional localities, increasing by 378 persons by 2041 based on compiled SA2 projections, which translates to a total rise of 9.4% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
92 new dwellings have been approved in Tolga over the past five years, an average of 18 a year. That places the area in the 67th percentile for residential development activity nationally, about 5 approvals per 1,000 residents a year. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 33, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Analysis of ABS building approvals assigned from statistical areas indicates that Tolga averages approximately 18 annual residential approvals, culminating in about 92 completed dwellings over the last 5 financial years. Thus far in FY-26, 31 approvals have been documented. With an average of 5.7 additional residents migrating to the area for every finished home between FY-21 and FY-25, demand remains ahead of building rates, which tends to escalate buyer competition and support price growth, while new construction displays an average value of $390,000. Additionally, commercial approvals worth $9.2 million were registered during the current financial year, highlighting that the locality remains predominantly residential.
Compared with the Rest of Qld, Tolga records a matching volume of new home approvals per capita, preserving a balanced market in line with the broader region, even though building volumes have decelerated recently. The recent housing mix consists of 86.0% detached houses and 14.0% multi-unit developments, which maintains low density and appeals to buyers looking for larger properties. Tolga represents a market in transition, averaging roughly 259 people for each new approval. Based on the most recent quarterly estimates from AreaSearch, Tolga is projected to add 337 residents by 2041. Given current building trends, the supply of new housing is anticipated to accommodate this demand easily, offering favorable conditions for purchasers and potentially enabling growth to exceed current forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Tolga
Loading development applications…
| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks one current infrastructure or development project inside Tolga, worth an estimated $3 million. A further 48 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $4.91 billion. 19 are already under construction and 23 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, transport & logistics and retail. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local performance is strongly shaped by infrastructure adjustments, capital works, and planning frameworks. A total of 2 key developments have been identified by AreaSearch as having a potential impact on the locality. Notable projects include the Tolga Main Street Shopping Centre, Atherton Hospital Redevelopment, Mareeba Solar Farm, and the Draft Far North Queensland Regional Plan 2025.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Tolga Main Street Shopping Centre
A small-scale neighbourhood shopping centre proposed by Tom Hedley's HEDZ Constructions Pty Ltd, comprising two single-storey buildings with four retail tenancies delivered across two stages. Stage 1 will see three tenancies built at the front of the site, with a fourth tenancy at the rear forming Stage 2. The development includes 12 on-site car parking spaces. As the site sits within 100 metres of the Kennedy Highway, the Department of Transport and Main Roads is providing assessment input on the impact at the highway intersection with Main Street.The application is being assessed by Tablelands Regional Council.
Atherton Large Format Retail Precinct
A major retail development spanning 16,400sqm designed to revitalize the Tablelands economy. The precinct features a new Bunnings Warehouse as the anchor tenant, alongside a Harvey Norman and other national large-format retailers. The project includes specialized showrooms, hardware supplies, and garden centers with over 400 parking spaces. It is situated adjacent to the John Cole Toyota dealership and is expected to create over 160 permanent jobs while significantly reducing retail leakage to Cairns.
Priors Creek Parklands
Priors Creek Parklands is a major Atherton CBD precinct revitalisation led by Tablelands Regional Council. The project is transforming a former rail corridor into a family-focused parklands and mixed-use destination with an open-air amphitheatre and main stage, nature walk trail, public amenities, fitness and leisure areas, shared paths, event spaces, and future opportunities for commercial development, hotel accommodation, retail, and food and beverage uses. Main parkland works are mostly complete, with surrounding road, parking, traffic flow, and staged opening works continuing ahead of the official opening events on 10-11 July 2026.
Vernon Apartments
A three-storey mixed-use development providing 27 affordable rental units (12 one-bedroom and 15 two-bedroom) with ground-floor commercial premises for potential food outlets, offices, shops, or healthcare services, complementing the adjacent Priors Creek Development.
Atherton Hospital Redevelopment
The $86.4 million redevelopment of Atherton Hospital delivered modern healthcare infrastructure for the Tablelands region. Key components include a new four-storey Clinical Services Building housing a state-of-the-art emergency department, medical imaging, maternity services with birth suites, operating and endoscopy theatres, and a sterilising unit. The project also delivered a Community, Allied and Mental Health Building, a new helipad, and an engineering services building. A final $12.9 million stage involving the refurbishment of the existing South Ward was initiated in late 2025 to further boost oncology services and inpatient capacity.
Mareeba Solar Farm
A 72MW ground-mounted solar photovoltaic facility spanning 110 hectares on the Atherton Tablelands. The project utilizes approximately 196,000 solar modules to generate 147GWh of clean energy annually, enough to power over 18,000 homes. Developed by ACE Power in partnership with Osaka Gas Energy Oceania, it connects to the grid via the nearby Turkinje Substation.
Haren Street Residential Aged Care Facility
A 120-bed residential aged care facility approved for a 2.89 hectare site at Lot 1 Haren Street. The facility is designed as a single-level complex featuring four wings (houses) of 30-36 residents, each with dedicated nurse stations, serveries, and dining areas. Key features include 24-hour nursing care, secure dementia units, a cafe, commercial laundry, and high-standard fittings. While the development permit (MCU/19/0019) remains active, the site has been periodically marketed for sale as a 'shovel-ready' opportunity for developers or owner-occupiers.
Mareeba Research Facility Upgrades
Upgrade of fruit handling laboratories at Mareeba research facility, enabling scientists to provide research services to expanding and new horticultural industries. Part of Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries infrastructure program.
1,761 residents of Tolga are employed, from a labour force of 1,823. Unemployment sits at 3.4%, with participation at 62.2%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 5.6% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth, so in an area growing as fast as this one it understates the likely rise in local jobs. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Tolga features a balanced labor force split between professional and manual occupations across diverse industries, with an unemployment rate of only 3.4% compiled from regional statistical data. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 1,761, representing an unemployment rate 0.5% lower than the Regional Qld level of 3.9%, while participation is lower at 62.2% compared to 64.3% in Regional Qld. Census data shows that a minor 8.9% of workers operated from home, though this period was influenced by lockdown measures. Local employment is predominantly distributed across agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.
The agricultural sector is highly concentrated, representing a share 3.6 times the Regional Qld average. Conversely, health care & social assistance accounts for 12.8% of the local workforce, which is below the 16.1% average for Regional Qld. Although local positions are present, comparison of the Census working population against resident figures suggests a significant portion of the workforce commutes to other areas. Aggregated SALM and ABS data from regional statistical zones reveals that during the 12 months leading to March 2026, the local workforce contracted by 0.8% and total employment fell by 2.3%, leading to a 1.4 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate. This trend diverges from Regional Qld, which recorded a 0.1% rise in employment, a 0.3% increase in the labor force, and a 0.1 percentage point increase in unemployment. National forecasts released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25 offer additional perspectives on prospective employment patterns. These five and ten-year projections have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future growth. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, trends vary by sector. Projecting these industry rates onto Tolga's workforce suggests local jobs will grow by 5.6% over five years and 12.2% over ten years, representing a basic weighting model that does not incorporate localized population adjustments.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Tolga is $1,479 a week (about $77,000 a year), with median personal income at $715 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $48,547 a year against an average of $57,471. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
According to the latest postcode-level ATO statistics released for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in the suburb of Tolga recorded a median income of $48,547 and an average of $57,471. These figures are below national averages, and compare to a median of $53,146 and an average of $66,593 across Regional Qld. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index increase of 11.36% since the 2023 financial year, current estimates would stand at approximately $54,062 for the median and $64,000 for the average as of March 2026. Based on the 2021 Census, household, family, and individual incomes are positioned modestly, placing between the 31st and 34th percentiles.
In terms of distribution, 33.5% of taxpayers (1,195 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - 2,999 range, which is similar to the 31.7% observed in the wider region. Housing expenses are manageable with residents retaining 88.1% of income, though disposable earnings are positioned in the 39th percentile, and the SEIFA index ranks the area in the 4th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Tolga had 1,144 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 98% detached houses and 0% apartments. 37% are owned with a mortgage, 14% rented and 50% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $300 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,600 a month. Rent absorbs 20.3% of household income here and mortgage repayments 25.0%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
At the time of the latest Census, the housing inventory in Tolga was composed of 98.0% standalone houses and 2.0% alternative dwellings, compared to 76.4% houses and 23.6% other options in Regional Qld. Home ownership rates were higher than the regional average, standing at 49.6% owned outright, with the remaining residences split between mortgaged properties (36.7%) and rental properties (13.7%). The median mortgage repayment was lower than the Regional Qld average at $1,600 per month, and the median weekly rent was $300, compared to regional benchmarks of $1,655 and $345.
On a national level, Tolga's mortgage costs are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are below the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Tolga counted 1,144 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 1,286 today, averaging 2.5 people each. 28% are couples with children, against 37% couples without children. 23% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.9 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families comprise 74.5% of all local households, consisting of 28.2% couples with children, 37.1% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent households. Non-family households represent the remaining 25.5%, containing lone persons at 22.5% and group living arrangements at 2.8%. The median household size of 2.5 residents is identical to the Regional Qld average.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
16.4% of adults in Tolga hold a university qualification, including 12.2% with a bachelor degree and 2.2% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 33.3% hold a vocational qualification. 1 school serves the area, with 307 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 986 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Educational profiles indicate lower levels of tertiary attainment, with university graduation rates at 16.4% compared to the national average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are held by 12.2% of residents, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.2% and graduate diplomas at 2.0%. Vocational qualifications are common, with 43.8% of residents aged 15+ holding trade credentials, which include advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificate-level training at 33.3%. Enrolment levels are high, with 29.7% of the local population engaged in formal studies. This cohort includes 12.7% attending primary schools, 9.9% enrolled in secondary education, and 3.2% undertaking tertiary coursework.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Getting around Tolga means driving: households keep an average of 1.8 vehicles, and no scheduled public transport appears in the current timetable feeds. Service data is built from operators' published GTFS timetables; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
71.2% of residents in Tolga report no long-term health condition, a healthier profile than 83% of areas nationally. 4.0% need daily assistance with core activities, and 50.0% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 4.1 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health assessments indicate positive outcomes in Tolga, characterized by low mortality rates and a low prevalence of chronic health issues across all demographics. Private health insurance coverage is held by approximately 50% of the population (~1,784 people), which is below the Regional Qld average of 52.5% and the national rate of 55.7%. The most prevalent health issues recorded among residents are arthritis at 8.2% and asthma at 6.4%, while 71.2% of the population reported no chronic conditions, compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. The working-age cohort exhibits favorable health metrics with minimal chronic illness.
Residents aged 65 and over make up 23.3% of the community (831 people), representing a higher proportion than the 20.4% recorded in Regional Qld. Senior health metrics are positive, with national comparative ranks matching the broader population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Tolga is largely Australian-born, at 84.7% of residents, with 7.3% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are Australian (29.1%) and English (27.6%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity metrics are below national averages, with 85.7% of residents holding citizenship, 84.7% born domestically, and 92.7% using English as their sole language at home. Christianity is the predominant religious affiliation, representing 57.7% of the population, compared to 52.2% across Regional Qld. Regarding ancestral backgrounds, the three largest groups are Australian at 29.1%, English at 27.6%, and Irish at 9.0%. Other distinct groups include an overrepresentation of Italian ancestry at 6.9% of the population (compared to 2.4% regionally), German ancestry at 4.3% (compared to 4.7%), and Welsh ancestry at 0.6% (compared to 0.5%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Tolga is 44, older than 76% of areas nationally. 23.0% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of 44 years in Tolga is slightly older than the Regional Qld average of 41 and notably older than the national median of 38 years. Demographic analysis reveals that the 65 - 74 age group is prominent at 13.3%, while the 15 - 24 cohort is smaller at 11.2% compared to Regional Qld. Since 2021, the 15 to 24 cohort expanded from 9.8% to 11.2%, and the 75 to 84 cohort rose from 7.2% to 8.4%, whereas the 5 to 14 cohort decreased from 13.9% to 12.0%.
Long-term projections for 2041 suggest shifting age patterns, with the 75 to 84 cohort expected to grow by 33%, adding 98 residents to total 398, while declines are projected for both the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 demographics.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Tolga
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | May 2026 3 months ago all 1 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 163 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (3,177 at the 2021 Census → 3,570 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL32840). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.