Tolga

Population growth drivers in Tolga are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Tolga's population is estimated at around 3,407, reflecting an increase of 230 people since the 2021 Census. The 2021 Census reported a population of 3,177 in the suburb. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and the resident population estimate of 3,307 based on ABS ERP data release in June 2024. Tolga's population density is approximately 40 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Tolga has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%, outpacing its SA3 area. Interstate migration contributed approximately 66% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023, based on 2021 data, are adopted. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits; thus, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings from the ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023, based on 2022 data. By 2041, Tolga's population is expected to increase by approximately 393 persons, reflecting a total increase of 10.4% over the 17 years. This projection aligns with national non-metropolitan area trends.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Tolga recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis shows Tolga averaged around 19 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 97 homes were approved, with 11 more in FY-26 so far. Each year, an average of 2.2 new residents per dwelling was recorded over the past five financial years.

The average construction cost for new homes was $390,000, below the regional average. This fiscal year, $30.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered. Compared to Rest of Qld, Tolga's construction levels were 13.0% higher per person over the five-year period.

New development consisted of 88.0% detached houses and 12.0% townhouses or apartments. The area had approximately 216 people per dwelling approval, indicating potential for growth. Population forecasts estimate Tolga will gain 354 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably.

Tolga has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 8thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects expected to impact the region. Notable projects include Tolga Main Street Shopping Centre (DA), Atherton Hospital Redevelopment, Mareeba Solar Farm, and North and Far North Queensland REZs. The following details those likely most relevant.

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Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Tolga well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Tolga has a balanced workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 2.0% as of June 2025, according to AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. In June 2025, 1,761 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate 1.9% lower than Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation was broadly similar to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key industries for Tolga residents were agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area had a particular employment specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 3.6 times the regional level. Health care & social assistance had limited presence at 12.8%, compared to 16.1% regionally.

Many residents commuted elsewhere for work based on Census working population data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Tolga's labour force decreased by 0.8% alongside a 1.3% employment decline, causing unemployment to rise by 0.5 percentage points. Rest of Qld experienced employment growth of 1.8% and labour force growth of 2.0%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Tolga's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.6% over five years and 12.2% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 indicates that Tolga's median income is $48,547 and the average income stands at $57,471. This contrasts with Rest of Qld's median income of $50,780 and average income of $64,844 for the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% from financial year ending June 2022 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $55,339 (median) and $65,511 (average) by that date. Census data reveals Tolga's household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly between the 31st and 34th percentiles. Income analysis shows the largest segment comprises 33.5% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,141 residents), similar to regional levels where 31.7% fall within this range. Housing costs are manageable with 88.1% retained, but disposable income sits below average at the 39th percentile and Tolga's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fourth decile.

Tolga is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Tolga, as assessed at the latest Census, consisted of 98.0% houses and 2.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Non-Metro Qld's 91.0% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Tolga stood at 49.6%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (36.7%) or rented (13.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,600, surpassing Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure in Tolga was recorded at $300, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $270. Nationally, Tolga's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tolga has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 74.5% of all households, including 28.2% couples with children, 37.1% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.5%, with lone person households at 22.5% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Tolga fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.4%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (33.3%). Educational participation is high at 29.7%, comprising primary education (12.7%), secondary education (9.9%), and tertiary education (3.2%).

Tolga State School serves the area with an enrollment of 307 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 986). It focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. The area has fewer school places per 100 residents (9.0) compared to the regional average (16.8), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

The level of general health in Tolga is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Tolga demonstrates above-average health outcomes with both young and old age cohorts experiencing low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~1,702 people), compared to 46.9% across Rest of Qld. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, affecting 8.2 and 6.4% of residents respectively, while 71.2% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.5% across Rest of Qld. As of 2021, 23.6% of Tolga's residents are aged 65 and over (804 people), which is lower than the 25.1% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors in Tolga are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Tolga ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Tolga had a lower cultural diversity, with 85.7% of its population being citizens, 84.7% born in Australia, and 92.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 57.7% of Tolga's population, compared to 52.6% across Rest of Qld. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (29.1%), English (27.6%), and Irish (9.0%).

Notably, Italian (6.9%) was overrepresented in Tolga compared to the regional average of 5.9%, while German (4.3%) and Welsh (0.6%) had similar representation to their respective regional averages.

Tolga hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Tolga's median age is 44 years, which is marginally above Rest of Queensland's average of 41 years and considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 13.8% of the population, while those aged 15-24 comprise a smaller proportion at 10.9%, compared to Rest of Queensland. Between 2021 and present day, the percentage of individuals aged 15-24 has increased from 9.8% to 10.9%. Conversely, the percentage of those aged 5-14 has decreased from 13.9% to 12.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Tolga. The 35-44 age cohort is projected to grow by 25%, adding 107 residents to reach a total of 533. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 15-24 age cohorts.