Tolga

Population growth drivers in Tolga are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the Tolga statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at 3,449 as of November 2025, reflecting an increase of 272 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents an 8.6% increase from the previous population count of 3,177 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 3,338 in June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, along with an additional 157 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 40 persons per square kilometer. The Tolga (SA2) experienced greater growth than both its SA3 area (7.2%) and SA4 region during this period. Interstate migration contributed approximately 66.0% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are used, applying proportional growth weightings aligned with ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort. Moving forward, demographic trends suggest a population increase just below the median of national non-metropolitan areas, with an expected expansion to 3,846 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 9.2% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Tolga when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis shows Tolga averaging approximately 20 new dwelling approvals annually. From FY-21 to FY-25, around 102 homes were approved, with an additional 15 approved in FY-26 so far. Each year, on average, 2.1 new residents are associated with each dwelling approved between FY-21 and FY-25.

The average construction value of these dwellings is $390,000. This financial year, $9.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's predominantly residential nature. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Tolga has a 19.0% higher construction rate per person over the past five years.

The area records 88.0% detached dwellings and 12.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining its low-density character with a focus on family homes. With around 186 people per dwelling approval, Tolga exhibits growth area characteristics. Population forecasts estimate an increase of 316 residents by 2041. Current development patterns suggest new housing supply should meet demand, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Tolga has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified two projects likely impacting the area: Tolga Main Street Shopping Centre, Atherton Hospital Redevelopment, Mareeba Solar Farm, and North/Far North Queensland REZs. The following details these key projects, focusing on those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Tolga shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Tolga has a balanced workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 3.0% as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of September 2025, there are 1,743 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% below the Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%.

Workforce participation is similar to Rest of Qld's at 59.1%. Leading employment industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area has a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share 3.6 times the regional level, but health care & social assistance is under-represented at 12.8% compared to Rest of Qld's 16.1%. Some residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population data.

Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.9%, employment decreased by 2.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.2 percentage points in Tolga, while Rest of Qld experienced employment growth of 1.7% and labour force growth of 2.1%. State-level data to 25-Nov shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01% (losing 1,210 jobs) with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%, closely aligned with the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Tolga's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 5.6% over five years and 12.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Tolga's median income among taxpayers is $48,547. The average income in the suburb is $57,471. Nationally, incomes are higher with a median of $62,984 and an average of $84,243. In Rest of Qld, the median is $53,146 and the average is $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, current estimates for Tolga's median income are approximately $53,358 by September 2025, with an average of $63,166. Census data indicates Tolga's household incomes rank at the 31st percentile, family incomes at the 34th percentile, and personal incomes also at the 34th percentile. Income distribution shows that 33.5% of individuals in Tolga earn between $1,500 - 2,999 annually (1,155 individuals). This is similar to the broader area where this income band represents 31.7%. Housing costs allow for retention of 88.1% of income, but disposable income ranks at the 39th percentile. Tolga's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Tolga is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Tolga, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 98.0% houses and 2.0% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had 91.0% houses and 9.0% other dwellings. The level of home ownership in Tolga was 49.6%, with the remainder either mortgaged (36.7%) or rented (13.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,600, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average. Weekly rent was recorded at $300, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $270. Nationally, Tolga's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,600 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tolga has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.5% of all households, including 28.2% couples with children, 37.1% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.5%, with lone person households at 22.5% and group households making up 2.8%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Tolga fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.4%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (33.3%). Educational participation is high at 29.7%, comprising primary education (12.7%), secondary education (9.9%), and tertiary education (3.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.7% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

The level of general health in Tolga is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Tolga demonstrates above-average health outcomes with both young and old age cohorts experiencing low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~1,723 people), compared to 47.1% across Rest of Qld. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 8.2 and 6.4% of residents respectively. A total of 71.2% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 67.5% across Rest of Qld. The area has 23.6% of residents aged 65 and over (813 people), which is lower than the 25.1% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Tolga ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Tolga's population was found to be predominantly culturally homogeneous, with 85.7% being citizens, 84.7% born in Australia, and 92.7% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion was Christianity, accounting for 57.7% of Tolga's population, compared to 52.6% across the Rest of Qld. Regarding ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (29.1%), English (27.6%), and Irish (9.0%).

Notably, Italian (6.9%) and German (4.3%) communities were proportionally similar to regional figures, while Welsh was slightly higher at 0.6%.

Tolga hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Tolga's median age is 44 years, which is marginally higher than Rest of Qld's average of 41 years, and considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that the 65-74 year-old group comprises 13.8% of Tolga's population, while the 15-24 year-old group makes up 10.9%. In comparison, Rest of Qld has a larger proportion of 15-24 year-olds. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of 15-24 year-olds in Tolga's population has increased from 9.8% to 10.9%, while the 5-14 year-old group has decreased from 13.9% to 12.1%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 suggest significant demographic changes in Tolga. The 35-44 year-old cohort is projected to grow by 23%, adding 99 residents and reaching a total of 534. Conversely, population declines are forecasted for the 55-64 year-old and 5-14 year-old cohorts.