Gordonvale

Population growth drivers in Gordonvale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Gordonvale's population is estimated at around 8785 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1841 people (26.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6944 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 7913 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 182 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 154 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Gordonvale's 26.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (8.2%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Looking at population projections moving forward, exceptional growth placing in the top 10 percent of Australian non-metropolitan areas is predicted over the period with the area expected to increase by 5422 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 51.3% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Gordonvale was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Gordonvale recorded approximately 76 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 382 homes were approved, with an additional 58 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, each home built over these years has accommodated three new residents annually, indicating a significant demand outpacing supply.

The average construction value of new properties is $428,000. This year, there have been $13.6 million in commercial approvals, suggesting steady commercial investment activity. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Gordonvale has 201.0% more construction activity per person. Recent building activity consists solely of detached houses, maintaining the area's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers with around 106 people per dwelling approval.

By 2041, AreaSearch projects Gordonvale will add approximately 4,506 residents. Construction is keeping pace with projected growth, but increasing competition among buyers is expected as population grows.

Gordonvale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly impact an area's performance. Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to influence the region: Bruce Highway Cairns Southern Access Corridor Stage 3 - Edmonton to Gordonvale, Mount Peter Priority Development Area, Cairns South State Development Area, and North Queensland Youth Alcohol and Other Drugs Residential Rehabilitation Service. The following list provides details on those most relevant projects.

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The employment landscape in Gordonvale presents a mixed picture: unemployment remains low at 3.9%, yet recent job losses have affected its comparative national standing

Gordonvale has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs, particularly in essential services sectors. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 3.9%. This is 0.2% lower than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%, with similar workforce participation rates at 65.7%.

According to Census data, only 11.0% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction is notably concentrated in the area, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 14.1%, compared to the regional average of 16.1%.

The area may have limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force decreased by 1.3% while employment declined by 2.8%, increasing unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Qld where employment rose by 1.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gordonvale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Gordonvale's income level is lower than average nationally according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Gordonvale's median income among taxpayers is $50,339 and the average income stands at $57,526, compared to Rest of Qld's figures of $53,146 and $66,593 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Gordonvale would be approximately $55,328 (median) and $63,227 (average) as of September 2025. From the Census conducted in August 2021, household, family and personal incomes rank modestly in Gordonvale, between the 45th and 48th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 35.7% of locals (3,136 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the broader area where 31.7% occupy this bracket. After housing expenses, 86.0% of income remains for other expenses.

Gordonvale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Gordonvale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.2% houses and 4.7% other dwellings. In contrast, Non-Metro Qld had 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gordonvale was at 31.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.6% and rented ones at 25.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,517, below Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,655. Median weekly rent in Gordonvale was $320, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $345. Nationally, Gordonvale's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,517 versus Australia's $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Gordonvale has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.2% of all households, including 31.5% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.8%, with lone person households at 21.0% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

Gordonvale faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.9%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 45.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (34.8%). Educational participation is high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 12.5% in primary, 11.2% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.5% in primary education, 11.2% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gordonvale has 18 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by two routes offering a total of 235 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated moderate, with residents located an average of 405 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car remains the primary mode of transport, used by 92% of residents. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm.

Only 11.0% of residents work from home (as per the 2021 Census). Service frequency averages 33 trips per day across all routes, resulting in about 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Gordonvale are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Gordonvale's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 50% of Gordonvale's total population (~4,392 people) has private health cover, compared to 52.5% in Rest of Qld and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma (7.5%) and mental health issues (7.5%), while 70.1% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 67.6% across Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population in Gordonvale are broadly typical. The area has 16.3% of residents aged 65 and over (1,431 people), lower than Rest of Qld's 20.4%. Health outcomes among seniors in Gordonvale rank higher than the general population nationally.

Gordonvale is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Gordonvale had a lower than average cultural diversity, with 88.7% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia, and speaking English only at home. The predominant religion was Christianity, practiced by 52.1% of the population. Notably, the 'Other' religious category comprised 1.7% of Gordonvale's population, higher than the 0.8% regional average.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (27.2%), English (26.4%), and Other (8.3%) were the most represented groups. Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Australian Aboriginal at 7.4%, Italian at 5.3%, and Maltese at 0.5% compared to regional averages of 3.9%, 2.4%, and 0.4% respectively.

Gordonvale's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Gordonvale is 38 years, slightly lower than Rest of Qld's average of 41 but matching Australia's median age of 38 years. The 15-24 age group comprises 13.8% of Gordonvale's population, higher than Rest of Qld's percentage, while the 75-84 cohort makes up 4.8%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 12.2% to 13.8%, and the 0 to 4 cohort has risen from 5.6% to 7.0%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has decreased from 16.0% to 13.4%, and the 55 to 64 group has fallen from 12.7% to 11.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 suggest significant demographic changes in Gordonvale, with the 25 to 34 age group projected to grow by 68%, reaching 1,946 people from its current figure of 1,159.