Cairns City

Cairns City lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Cairns City's estimated population is around 3,926. This reflects an increase of 310 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,616. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,832 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 235 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,169 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cairns City's growth of 8.6% since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA3 area (8.0%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 92.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data are applied where utilised. Anticipating future population dynamics, a significant increase is forecast for the top quartile of regional areas nationally by 2041, with Cairns City expected to increase by 1,232 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 31.1% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Cairns City according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Between FY21 and FY25, Cairns City averaged approximately 5 new dwelling approvals per year, with a total of 26 homes approved. In FY26, up to the present time, 18 dwellings have been approved.

This results in an average of around 8.8 new residents arriving per year for each dwelling constructed over these five financial years. The demand significantly exceeds the supply of new dwellings, which typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Cairns City has a substantially reduced construction rate, at 61% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction often reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. The national average is also exceeded by this level, indicating possible planning constraints in the area. New development in Cairns City consists of approximately 33% standalone homes and 67% attached dwellings.

This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points, appealing to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. However, developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (3% at Census), reflecting strong demand for family homes despite densification trends. Cairns City reflects a highly mature market with around 3886 people per dwelling approval. Future projections from AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate suggest that Cairns City will add approximately 1,219 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Cairns City has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 58 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include: Cairns Hospital Expansion Project, Cairns Smart Green Economy Initiative, Esplanade Waterfront Apartment Towers, and Cairns Health and Innovation Centre (CHIC). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Cairns City lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Cairns City has a highly educated workforce with prominent tourism and hospitality sectors. Its unemployment rate is 5.6%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 2,487 residents in work, with an unemployment rate 1.5% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation lags significantly at 40.7%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Leading employment industries among residents include accommodation & food, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area has a strong specialization in accommodation & food, with an employment share 3.0 times the regional level.

However, education & training is under-represented, with only 3.8% of Cairns City's workforce compared to 9.1% in Rest of Qld. There are 3.8 workers for every resident, indicating that the area functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. During the year to September 2025, the labour force decreased by 1.9%, alongside a 3.5% employment decline, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Qld experienced employment growth of 1.7% and labour force growth of 2.1%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data to 25-Nov shows QLD employment contracted by 0.01% (losing 1,210 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%, broadly in line with the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Cairns City. These projections suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Cairns City's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation shows that Cairns City had a median taxpayer income of $56,565 and an average of $70,350 in financial year 2023. This is higher than the national averages of $53,146 for Rest of Qld's median and $66,593 for its average. Based on a 9.91% Wage Price Index growth since FY2023, estimates for September 2025 are approximately $62,171 (median) and $77,322 (average). Census data indicates personal income ranks at the 68th percentile ($907 weekly), with household income at the 43rd percentile. Income brackets show that 29.7% of locals (1,166 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 42nd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Cairns City features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Cairns City, as per the latest Census evaluation, 2.6% of dwellings were houses while 97.4% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Non-Metro Qld's figures of 68.4% houses and 31.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cairns City stood at 31.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 18.6% and rented ones at 49.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,517. Median weekly rent in Cairns City was $413, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $315. Nationally, Cairns City's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher at $375.

Cairns City features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 52.5% of all households, including 10.1% couples with children, 36.6% couples without children, and 4.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 47.5%, with lone person households at 39.4% and group households making up 7.8%. The median household size is 1.9 people, smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.4.

Educational achievement in Cairns City places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Cairns City's educational attainment significantly exceeds broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 39.8% have university qualifications, compared to 20.6% in the rest of Queensland and 21.1% in the SA4 region. This educational advantage positions the area well for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 27.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%).

Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (15.6%) and certificates (23.6%). Educational participation is notably high, with 46.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.3% in tertiary education, 8.9% in primary education, and 8.9% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Cairns City shows that there are currently 11 operational transport stops within the city. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 20 individual routes operating. Together, these routes facilitate 1,856 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is considered good, with residents generally located around 264 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 265 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 168 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Cairns City is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Cairns City shows above-average health outcomes for both young and elderly residents. Common health conditions have a low prevalence in this area.

Approximately 55% of the total population (~2,162 people) has private health cover, compared to 50.9% across the rest of Queensland. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 6.8% and 5.9% of residents respectively. 72.5% of residents declare themselves completely free from medical ailments, compared to 71.7% in the rest of Queensland. As of June 2021, 20.6% of residents are aged 65 and over (808 people), which is higher than the 15.7% in the rest of Queensland. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Cairns City was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cairns City has a high level of cultural diversity, with 26.7% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 42.3% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cairns City, comprising 45.6% of the population. Judaism is overrepresented compared to the rest of Queensland, making up 0.4% of Cairns City's population versus 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups in Cairns City are English (26.4%), Australian (14.1%), and Other (13.1%). French (1.8%), Spanish (1.3%), and Polish (1.1%) ethnicities are notably overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.4% respectively.

Cairns City hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Cairns City's median age is 43 years, higher than Rest of Qld's average of 41 and exceeding the national average of 38 by a substantial margin. The 25-34 age group comprises 27.8%, compared to Rest of Qld, while the 5-14 cohort makes up 2.6%. This concentration in the 25-34 group is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows a shift in median age down by 1.4 years to 43, with notable changes including an increase from 24.2% to 27.8% for the 25-34 group and from 9.7% to 10.8% for the 15-24 cohort. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 14.2% to 12.0%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 14.7% to 13.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Cairns City, with the strongest projected growth in the 25-34 cohort at 43%, adding 468 residents to reach a total of 1,560.