Tully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to research conducted by AreaSearch, the population of Tully stands at approximately 11,963 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 964 individuals (8.8%) from the 10,999 residents recorded during the 2021 Census. This population shift is calculated utilizing the ABS estimated resident population of 11,867 recorded in June 2025 alongside 227 validated new addresses identified after the Census. The resulting population density is 3.9 persons per square kilometer, indicating a low-density environment with significant space per resident. With an 8.8% expansion rate since the 2021 census, Tully outpaced both the SA3 area (5.8%) and the SA4 region, establishing itself as a leader in regional growth. The expansion of the local population was chiefly supported by international migration, which accounted for roughly 63.4% of the total population gains in recent times.

In its projections, AreaSearch uses ABS and Geoscience Australia data published in 2024, utilizing 2022 as its baseline. For locations where this data is unavailable, or for periods extending past 2032, projections from the Queensland State Government released in 2023 and based on 2021 statistics are used. Because these state-level projections lack breakdowns by age, AreaSearch applies age-cohort growth weightings derived from the 2023 ABS Greater Capital Region projections (using 2022 baseline statistics). Based on these anticipated demographic trends, Tully is expected to experience population growth slightly below the median of similar regional areas nationwide, expanding by 1,139 individuals by 2041 relative to the most recent annual ERP statistics, which represents a total growth of 8.7% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Tully among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Tully averages approximately 71 residential building approvals annually, representing a total of 358 residential properties over the last 5 financial years. During the current FY-26 period, 88 approvals have been registered. The construction of new dwellings has been accompanied by a population gain of 2.1 new residents per completed home over the last 5 financial years (spanning FY-21 through FY-25), demonstrating a solid level of demand that supports local real estate values. Newly constructed homes average an estimated cost of $323,000, aligning closely with regional averages. Additionally, the area has recorded $20.1 million in commercial approvals during the current financial year, demonstrating steady commercial development.

Tully surpasses the Rest of Qld average for new home approvals by 61.0% on a per capita basis, offering home buyers a broader range of options. Recent residential additions consist of 97.0% detached houses and 3.0% townhouses or multi-unit dwellings, reinforcing the low-density character of the area with a focus on single-family homes designed for buyers seeking space. The ratio of approximately 156 people per approved residential dwelling underscores Tully's profile as a growth corridor.

Demographic projections indicate that Tully's population will rise by 1,043 residents by 2041, based on the most recent quarterly estimates from AreaSearch. Current rates of residential construction suggest that the supply of new housing is positioned to satisfy this demand, establishing supportive conditions for property buyers while leaving open the possibility of growth rates that outpace current projections.

Tully has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Local infrastructure projects, planning choices, and development initiatives represent major drivers of regional performance. AreaSearch has identified 3 active projects expected to influence the local area. Key regional projects include the Bruce Highway (Ingham - Innisfail) Ingham to Cardwell Range Deviation, the North Queensland Super Hub, Hinchinbrook Shire Council Priority Projects, and the North and Far North Queensland REZs, with specific details on the most relevant initiatives provided below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Tully are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

The local workforce is evenly divided between professional and manual labor roles across various business sectors, with an overall unemployment rate of 5.7%. In March 2026, the employed population numbered 5,496 residents. The local unemployment rate sits 1.8% above the 3.9% recorded for Regional Qld, and the labor force participation rate of 57.4% remains well below the Regional Qld benchmark of 64.3%. Census data indicates that a modest 9.6% of local workers operated from home, though this figure may have been influenced by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

The primary employment sectors for local residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. Tully is highly specialized in agriculture, forestry & fishing, which employs 5.3 times the proportion of workers seen regionally. Conversely, health care & social assistance is underrepresented locally, accounting for 8.8% of Tully's labor force compared to 16.1% in Regional Qld. Although there are local jobs available, the ratio of Census employed residents to local job positions suggests a significant portion of the workforce travels to other areas for employment.

Based on AreaSearch's evaluation of SALM and ABS statistics, the local labor force contracted by 1.9% and total employment fell by 4.2% over the 12 months ending March 2026, leading to a 2.2 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. In contrast, Regional Qld experienced a 0.1% rise in employment, a 0.3% expansion of the labor force, and a minor 0.1 percentage point increase in unemployment. Employment projections published by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25 offer additional perspective on future labor requirements in Tully. These projections, spanning five and ten-year intervals, have been aligned with local industry profiles to estimate employment trends. Nationally, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though individual sector growth rates vary. When these national industry trends are applied to Tully's employment structure, local employment is projected to rise by 4.8% over five years and 10.9% over ten years, representing a basic weighted extrapolation for comparison rather than a projection based on local demographic trends.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The most recent postcode-level ATO data compiled by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023 indicates that personal incomes in the Tully SA2 are below national benchmarks, with a median income of $45,226 and an average income of $55,458. This is lower than the Regional Qld median of $53,146 and average of $66,593. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since financial year 2023, current income levels are estimated to be approximately $50,364 (median) and $61,758 (average) as of March 2026. According to Census records, household, family, and individual incomes in Tully are positioned between the 12th and 18th percentiles nationally. A share of 28.1% of the population (3,361 individuals) earns within the $1,500 - 2,999 range, which is comparable to the wider metropolitan region where 31.7% of residents fall into the same bracket. Although living expenses are relatively low, allowing residents to retain 86.7% of their income, total disposable income falls in the 16th percentile nationally.

Tully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Census data reveals that the local housing stock is composed of 84.4% separate houses and 15.6% alternative housing types, such as townhouses, units, and other structures, compared to Regional Qld where separate houses make up 76.4% and alternative dwellings comprise 23.6%. The rate of outright home ownership in Tully stands at 43.4%, exceeding the Regional Qld average, while the remaining occupied properties are either mortgaged (25.8%) or rented (30.7%). The median monthly mortgage payment in Tully was $1,300, which is below the Regional Qld average of $1,655. The median weekly rent of $265 is also lower than the Regional Qld average of $345. On a national level, Tully's mortgage costs are significantly below the Australian median of $1,863, and weekly rents are lower than the national median of $375.

Tully features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family units constitute the majority of households at 66.6%, consisting of couples with children (21.1%), couples without children (35.0%), and single parent households (9.6%). Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 33.4% of households, consisting of single-person households at 29.0% and group households at 4.4%. The median household size of 2.3 individuals is slightly lower than the Regional Qld median of 2.5.

Tully faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The region shows lower rates of higher education, with university completion rates at 14.1% compared to the Australian average of 30.4%, presenting opportunities for targeted educational programs. Bachelor degrees account for the largest share of higher education at 10.4%, followed by postgraduate studies at 2.2% and graduate diplomas at 1.5%. Vocational and technical training is common, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding trade credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (31.4%).

The rate of educational enrollment is high, with 26.5% of the local population currently engaged in study. This group includes 11.3% of residents in primary schools, 9.0% in secondary schools, and 1.9% enrolled in tertiary institutions.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Tully is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tully shows elevated health challenges based on AreaSearch's evaluation of local mortality rates and the prevalence of long-term health issues, which are common among both younger and older demographics. The proportion of residents with private health insurance is low at approximately 47% of the population (~5,670 people), compared to 52.5% in Regional Qld and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions reported among local residents are arthritis and mental health challenges, affecting 9.9 and 6.7% of the population, respectively. Meanwhile, 67.7% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, which is consistent with the 67.6% rate across Regional Qld. Health indicators for the working-age demographic are generally consistent with averages. Residents aged 65 and over make up 27.9% of the local population (3,337 people), higher than the Regional Qld proportion of 20.4%. Health outcomes among these older residents are favorable, ranking higher nationally than those of the general population.

Tully ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cultural diversity indicators in Tully are lower than average, with citizens representing 84.2% of the population, 83.0% of residents born in Australia, and 91.3% speaking only English in the home. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 56.1% of the local population. The most prominent statistical divergence is in the Other religious category, which represents 1.7% of residents in Tully compared to 0.8% across Regional Qld.

The most common parental ancestries reported in Tully are English at 26.6%, Australian at 26.3%, and Irish at 8.9%. Significant differences in other heritage groups include Italian ancestry, which represents 6.0% of Tully's population compared to 2.4% regionally, Australian Aboriginal ancestry at 4.9% compared to 3.9%, and Samoan ancestry at 0.3% compared to 0.2%.

Tully hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Tully's median age of 48 is higher than the Regional Qld median of 41 and the national median of 38. The 65 - 74 age group is highly represented at 16.6% of the population, whereas the 15 - 24 cohort is lower at 9.2%. This concentration of residents aged 65 - 74 is higher than the national average of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 65 to 74 age bracket grew from 15.0% to 16.6% of the population, and the 75 to 84 cohort expanded from 7.6% to 9.0%. In contrast, the 45 to 54 group fell from 12.9% to 11.5% and the 55 to 64 group declined from 16.8% to 15.5%. By 2041, Tully is projected to experience major shifts in its age structure, led by a 98% growth in the 85+ cohort (adding 276 people) to reach 559 from 282. This aging trend is further reflected in the fact that residents aged 65+ are expected to account for 62% of all projected population growth, while the 5 to 14 and 55 to 64 brackets are projected to shrink.