Tully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Tully's population is approximately 11,906 as of November 2025. This represents an increase of 907 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,999. The growth was inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,722 in June 2024 and an additional 193 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a population density of 3.9 persons per square kilometer. Tully's population grew by 8.2% between the 2021 Census and November 2025, outpacing the SA3 area's growth rate of 5.7%. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 63.0% of Tully's population gains during this period.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by these data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits; thus, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings from the ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 using 2022 data for each age cohort. Based on projected demographic shifts, Tully is expected to grow by approximately 1,274 persons to reach a population of around 13,180 by 2041. This projection reflects an increase of 9.2% over the 17-year period from November 2025 to 2041.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Tully among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Tully has seen approximately 71 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25358 homes were approved, with an additional 50 approved so far in FY26. On average, 1.9 new residents arrived per year for each new home over these five years, suggesting a balanced supply and demand creating stable market conditions.

The average construction value of new homes was $323,000, aligning with regional trends. This financial year has seen $20.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Tully has 62.0% more new home approvals per person, offering greater choice for buyers. Recent construction consists predominantly of detached dwellings at 97.0%, with townhouses or apartments making up the remaining 3.0%, preserving the area's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

With around 154 people per dwelling approval, Tully exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Tully is forecasted to gain 1,090 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Tully has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

"Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects likely influencing this region: Bruce Highway (Ingham - Innisfail) Ingham to Cardwell Range Deviation, Hinchinbrook Shire Council Priority Projects, North Queensland Super Hub, and North and Far North Queensland REZs.".

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Employment drivers in Tully are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Tully's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs across diverse sectors, with an unemployment rate of 5.4% as of September 2025. In this month, 5,596 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.3% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation in Tully lagged at 59.5%, compared to Rest of Qld's 65.7%.

According to Census responses, only 9.6% of residents worked from home. Key industries for employment among residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. Tully specializes in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 5.3 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented, at 8.8% of Tully's workforce compared to Rest of Qld's 16.1%.

Local commuting patterns suggest many residents work elsewhere based on Census data. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.2%, alongside a 3.4% employment decline, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 2.1 percentage points. Rest of Qld recorded employment growth of 1.7% and labour force growth of 2.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 4.8% over five years and 10.9% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Income in Tully SA2, based on AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023, is lower than the national average. The median income is $45,226, while the average stands at $55,458. This contrasts with Rest of Qld's figures, where median income is $53,146 and average income is $66,593. Using Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, estimates for September 2025 are approximately $49,708 (median) and $60,954 (average). Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Tully fall between the 12th and 18th percentiles nationally. The data indicates that 28.1% of Tully's population (3,345 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to metropolitan regions where 31.7% fall into this bracket. Housing costs are modest in Tully, with 86.7% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 16th percentile nationally.

Tully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Tully, evaluated at the latest Census, 84.4% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 15.6% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro Qld's figures of 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tully stood at 43.4%, with mortgaged dwellings making up 25.8% and rented dwellings comprising 30.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, significantly lower than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,655. Weekly rent in Tully averaged at $265, substantially below the Non-Metro Qld figure of $345 and the national average of $375. Nationally, Tully's median monthly mortgage repayment of $1,300 is significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863.

Tully features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.6% of all households, consisting of 21.1% couples with children, 35.0% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.4%, with lone person households at 29.0% and group households comprising 4.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

Tully faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.1%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.2% and graduate diplomas at 1.5%. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas at 9.8% and certificates at 31.4%. Educational participation is high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.3% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Tully is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tully faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence for common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~5,643 people), compared to 52.5% across Rest of Qld and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.9 and 6.7% of residents respectively. 67.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 67.6% across Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 27.2% of residents aged 65 and over (3,238 people), which is higher than the 20.0% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Tully ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Tully has a cultural diversity index below the average, with 84.2% of its population being citizens, 83.0% born in Australia, and 91.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tully, comprising 56.1% of the population. The most notable overrepresentation is in the 'Other' category, which constitutes 1.7% of Tully's population compared to 0.8% across the rest of Queensland.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups in Tully are English (26.6%), Australian (26.3%), and Irish (8.9%). There are significant differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Italian is overrepresented at 6.0% compared to 2.4% regionally, Australian Aboriginal at 4.9% versus 3.9%, and Samoan at 0.3% versus 0.2%.

Tully hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Tully has a median age of 48, which is higher than Rest of Qld's figure of 41 and significantly above the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group comprises 16.1% of Tully's population, compared to Rest of Qld, while the 15-24 cohort makes up 9.0%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national figure of 9.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has grown from 7.6% to 8.8%, and the 65-74 cohort has increased from 15.0% to 16.1%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 12.9% to 11.7%, and the 55-64 group has dropped from 16.8% to 15.8%. By 2041, Tully is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. The 65-74 group is projected to grow by 16% (302 people), reaching 2,215 from 1,912. This aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 64% of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 55-64 cohorts.