Tully
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Tully's population is approximately 11,912 as of August 2025. This figure shows an increase of 913 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,999 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,722 in June 2024 and an additional 194 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3.9 persons per square kilometer. Tully's growth rate of 8.3% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area (5.2%) and SA4 region, indicating it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in Tully.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Considering projected demographic shifts, Tully is expected to grow by approximately 1,274 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, recording a gain of around 9.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Tully among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Tully has seen approximately 71 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25358 homes were approved, with a further 22 approved so far in FY26. On average, 1.9 new residents arrive per year for each new home built over these five years.

This indicates balanced supply and demand, creating stable market conditions. The average construction cost of new homes is $371,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY26, $20.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Tully has 62.0% more new home approvals per person, offering greater choice for buyers.

Recent construction comprises 97.0% detached dwellings and 3.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 154 people per dwelling approval, Tully exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Population forecasts project an increase of 1,084 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling population growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Tully has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 6thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects expected to influence this region: Bruce Highway (Ingham - Innisfail) Ingham to Cardwell Range Deviation project, North Queensland Super Hub initiative, Hinchinbrook Shire Council Priority Projects, and Gawara Baya Wind Farm development.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Tully has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Tully has a mixed workforce consisting of white and blue-collar jobs with varied industry representation. The unemployment rate is 4.5%.

As of June 2025, Tully's employment stands at 5,579 residents with an unemployment rate of 4.9%, which is 0.5% higher than the Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Tully is lower at 53.3%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key industries employing Tully residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. Tully has a significant employment specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 5.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, health care & social assistance is under-represented, accounting for only 8.8% of Tully's workforce compared to 16.1% in Rest of Qld. Some residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population data. Over the year to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.5%, with employment declining by 3.0%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 1.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Qld saw employment growth of 1.8% and labour force growth of 2.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data for Sep-25 shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.23%, losing 8,070 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.5% and employment growth is 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tully's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 4.8% over five years and 10.9% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows income in Tully is lower than average nationally. The median income is $43,814 and the average is $53,157. This contrasts with Rest of Qld's figures: median income of $50,780 and average of $64,844. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.71% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $48,945 (median) and $59,382 (average). Census data reveals Tully's household, family, and personal incomes all fall between the 13th and 18th percentiles nationally. In Tully, 28.1% of the population (3,347 individuals) have incomes ranging from $1,500 to 2,999, similar to metropolitan regions where 31.7% fall within this range. Housing costs are modest in Tully, with 86.7% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 16th percentile nationally.

Tully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tully's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.4% houses and 15.6% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tully was 43.4%, with mortgaged properties at 25.8% and rented ones at 30.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Tully was $1,300, aligning with Non-Metro Qld's average. The median weekly rent figure in Tully was $265, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $250. Nationally, Tully's median mortgage repayments were lower at $1,300 compared to Australia's average of $1,863. Similarly, rents in Tully were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tully features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.6% of all households, including 21.1% couples with children, 35.0% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 33.4%, with lone person households at 29.0% and group households comprising 4.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.4.

Tully faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.1%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (31.4%).

Educational participation is high at 26.5%, including primary education (11.3%), secondary education (9.0%), and tertiary education (1.9%). Tully has a network of 10 schools educating approximately 1,653 students, with 9 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Tully is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tully faces significant health challenges with common conditions prevalent across younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is low at approximately 47% of the total population (~5,562 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (9.9% of residents) and mental health issues (6.7%), while 67.7% report no medical ailments, similar to the Rest of Qld at 68.1%. Tully has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 27.2% (~3,240 people) compared to Rest of Qld at 23.6%. Health outcomes among seniors in Tully are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Tully ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Tully's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 84.2% of its population being citizens, 83.0% born in Australia, and 91.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tully, accounting for 56.1% of the population. The most significant overrepresentation was seen in the 'Other' category, which constitutes 1.7% of Tully's population compared to 3.3% across the rest of Queensland.

Regarding ancestry, the top three represented groups in Tully are English at 26.6%, Australian at 26.3%, and Irish at 8.9%. There are notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Italian is overrepresented at 6.0% compared to 7.5% regionally, Australian Aboriginal at 4.9% versus 11.3%, and Samoan at 0.3% versus 0.1%.

Tully hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Tully has a median age of 48, which is higher than the Rest of Qld figure of 41 and significantly above the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group constitutes 16.1% of Tully's population, compared to Rest of Qld, while the 15-24 cohort makes up 9.0%. This 65-74 concentration is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group grew from 7.6% to 8.8%, and the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 15.0% to 16.1%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 12.9% to 11.7%, and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 16.8% to 15.8%. By 2041, Tully is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 65 to 74 group is projected to grow by 16%, reaching 2,215 people from 1,913. The aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 64% of projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 cohorts.