Tully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Tully's population is around 11,910 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 911 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,999. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,722 in June 2024 and an additional 193 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3.9 persons per square kilometer. Tully's growth rate of 8.3% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (5.2%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. These state projections do not provide age category splits; hence proportional growth weightings are applied in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Considering projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of regional areas is expected by 2041, with the area expected to grow by 1,274 persons, reflecting a gain of 9.1% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Tully among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Tully has seen approximately 71 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 358 homes were approved. By May 26th FY26, an additional 34 homes have been approved.

On average, over these five years, about 1.9 new residents arrived per year for each new home built. This balance between supply and demand has maintained stable market conditions. The average expected construction cost of new homes in Tully is $371,000, which is below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY26 up to May 26th, commercial approvals totaled $20.1 million, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to the Rest of Qld, Tully has seen a 62.0% increase in new home approvals per capita, offering greater choice for buyers. Recent construction in Tully comprises predominantly detached dwellings at 97.0%, with townhouses or apartments making up the remaining 3.0%. This preserves the area's low density nature and attracts space-seeking buyers. With around 154 people moving into the area for each dwelling approval, Tully exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Tully is projected to gain 1,086 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling population growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Tully has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects that may affect this region. Notable projects include the Bruce Highway (Ingham - Innisfail) Ingham to Cardwell Range Deviation, North Queensland Super Hub, Hinchinbrook Shire Council Priority Projects, and North and Far North Queensland REZs. The following list outlines those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Tully has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Tully has a balanced workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 4.5% as of June 2025. There are 5,579 residents employed in Tully, which is 0.5% higher than the Rest of Queensland's unemployment rate of 3.9%.

The workforce participation rate in Tully is lower at 53.3%, compared to 59.1% in the Rest of Queensland. Key industries for employment among Tully residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. Tully has a significant specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 5.3 times higher than the regional level. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented, with only 8.8% of Tully's workforce compared to 16.1% in the Rest of Queensland.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data analysis. Over the 12 months to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.5%, and employment declined by 3.0%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 1.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Queensland saw employment growth of 1.8% and labour force growth of 2.0%, with a smaller increase in unemployment of 0.2 percentage points. State-level data to Nov-25 shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01%, losing 1,210 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tully's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 4.8% over five years and 10.9% over ten years, though these are simplified extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Tully SA2 had a median income of $43,814 and an average income of $53,157. This is lower than the national averages of $50,780 (median) and $64,844 (average) for Rest of Qld. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, estimated median income in Tully as of September 2025 would be approximately $49,944 and average income $60,594. Census data reveals that incomes in Tully fall between the 12th and 18th percentiles nationally. In Tully, 28.1% (3,346 individuals) have incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, similar to metropolitan regions where this range is occupied by 31.7%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for retention of 86.7% of income, Tully's total disposable income ranks at the 16th percentile nationally.

Tully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tully's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.4% houses and 15.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tully was at 43.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.8% and rented ones at 30.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,300, aligning with Non-Metro Qld's average. The median weekly rent figure was $265, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $250. Nationally, Tully's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tully features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.6% of all households, including 21.1% couples with children, 35.0% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.4%, with lone person households at 29.0% and group households comprising 4.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.4.

Tully faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.1%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (31.4%). Educational participation is high at 26.5%, comprising primary education (11.3%), secondary education (9.0%), and tertiary education (1.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Tully is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tully faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~5,561 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.9% and 6.7% of residents respectively. 67.7% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 68.1% across Rest of Qld. The area has 27.2% of residents aged 65 and over (3,239 people), which is higher than the 23.6% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Tully ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Tully's population showed low cultural diversity, with 84.2% being citizens, 83.0% born in Australia, and 91.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 56.1%. The most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, comprising 1.7% compared to 3.3% regionally.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (26.6%), Australian (26.3%), and Irish (8.9%). Italian (6.0%) and Australian Aboriginal (4.9%) were overrepresented, while Samoan (0.3%) was underrepresented compared to regional figures.

Tully hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Tully's median age is 48, which is higher than Rest of Qld's figure of 41 and significantly greater than Australia's national norm of 38. The proportion of residents aged 65-74 is strong at 16.1%, compared to Rest of Qld, while the 15-24 age group is less prevalent at 9.0%. This concentration of those aged 65-74 is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75-84 age group grew from 7.6% to 8.8%, and the 65-74 cohort increased from 15.0% to 16.1%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group declined from 12.9% to 11.7%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 16.8% to 15.8%. By 2041, Tully's age composition is expected to shift notably. Leading this demographic change, the 65-74 age group will grow by 16% (302 people), reaching 2,215 from 1,912. The aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 64% of projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 55-64 age cohorts.