Tully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Tully's population is around 11,922 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 923 people (8.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,999 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,722 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 199 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 3.9 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Tully's 8.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (5.9%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence, where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of regional areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to grow by 1,274 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 9.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Tully among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Tully has seen around 71 new homes approved each year, with 358 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 53 so far in FY-26. At an average of 1.9 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, while new homes are being built at an average value of $323,000, in line with regional trends. Additionally, $20.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

When measured against the Rest of Qld, Tully has 62.0% more new home approvals (per person), creating greater choice for buyers. Recent construction comprises 97.0% detached dwellings and 3.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 154 people per dwelling approval, Tully shows characteristics of a growth area.

Population forecasts indicate Tully will gain 1,074 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Tully has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 3 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Bruce Highway (Ingham - Innisfail) Ingham to Cardwell Range Deviation, Hinchinbrook Shire Council Priority Projects, the North Queensland Super Hub, and North and Far North Queensland REZs, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Tully are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Tully features a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 5.8%. As of December 2025, 5,549 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.8% above Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%, and workforce participation lags significantly (59.1% compared to Regional Qld's 65.4%). Based on Census responses, a low 9.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. The area has a particular employment specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 5.3 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance is under-represented, with only 8.8% of Tully's workforce compared to 16.1% in Regional Qld. While local employment opportunities exist, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population relative to the local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.0% alongside a 3.5% employment decline, resulting in the unemployment rate rising by 2.4 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Qld recorded employment growth of 0.7%, labour force growth of 1.0%, and unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Tully. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Tully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 4.8% over five years and 10.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Tully SA2 is lower than average on a national basis, with the median assessed at $45,226 while the average income stands at $55,458. This contrasts with Regional Qld's figures of a median income of $53,146 and an average income of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $49,708 (median) and $60,954 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Tully all fall between the 12th and 18th percentiles nationally. The data shows 28.1% of the population (3,350 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen in the metropolitan region where 31.7% similarly occupy this range. While housing costs are modest with 86.7% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 16th percentile nationally.

Tully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Tully, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 84.4% houses and 15.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Tully was well beyond that of Regional Qld, at 43.4%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (25.8%) or rented (30.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional Qld average at $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $265, compared to Regional Qld's $1,655 and $345. Nationally, Tully's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tully features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 66.6% of all households, comprising 21.1% couples with children, 35.0% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.4%, with lone person households at 29.0% and group households comprising 4.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Regional Qld average of 2.5.

Tully faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (14.1%) substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 10.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (31.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Tully is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tully faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~5,651 people). This compares to 52.5% across Regional Qld. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.9% and 6.7% of residents, respectively, while 67.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 27.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,322 people), which is higher than the 20.4% in Regional Qld. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Tully ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Tully was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 84.2% of its population being citizens, 83.0% born in Australia, and 91.3% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Tully is Christianity, which makes up 56.1% of people in Tully. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 1.7% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Regional Qld.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Tully are English, comprising 26.6% of the population, Australian, comprising 26.3% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.9% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Italian is notably overrepresented at 6.0% of Tully (vs 2.4% regionally), Australian Aboriginal at 4.9% (vs 3.9%) and Samoan at 0.3% (vs 0.2%).

Tully hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

With a median age of 48, Tully is materially older than the Regional Qld figure of 41 as well as significantly higher than the national norm of 38. The 65 - 74 age group shows strong representation at 16.6% compared to Regional Qld, whereas the 15 - 24 cohort is less prevalent at 9.1%. This 65 - 74 concentration is well above the national 9.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 65 to 74 age group has grown from 15.0% to 16.6% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 7.6% to 8.8%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.9% to 11.3% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 16.8% to 15.5%. By 2041, Tully is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 98% (283 people), reaching 572 from 288. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those 65+ comprising 61% of projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 5 to 14 and 55 to 64 cohorts.