Clontarf (Moreton Bay - Qld)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Clontarf reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As per ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, the suburb of Clontarf (Moreton Bay - Qld) had an estimated population of 8,924 by May 2026. This figure represents a growth of 478 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 8,446. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 8,918 residents, derived from their analysis of the latest ERP data release by ABS in June 2025 and an additional 39 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 1,398 persons per square kilometer, exceeding national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 56.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023, based on 2021 data, are utilized. However, these state projections lack age category splits; thus, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings aligned with ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Future population trends indicate above median growth for the suburb of Clontarf. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 1,182 persons, reflecting a total increase of 13.2% over the 16-year period based on aggregated SA2-level projections.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Clontarf recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Clontarf shows approximately 22 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 111 homes. Fourteen approvals have been recorded so far in FY-26. On average, around 3.5 people have moved to the area each year for every dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating supply lagging demand. New properties are constructed at an average cost of $271,000, aligning with broader regional development trends.

In this financial year, $6.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Clontarf has significantly less development activity, 69.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. When compared nationally, Clontarf also shows lower development activity, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 81.0% detached houses and 19.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a focus on family homes.

With around 377 people per dwelling approval, Clontarf indicates a developed market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Clontarf is expected to grow by 1,176 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Clontarf has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified twenty projects likely to affect the region. Notable ones include Clontarf Beach State High School's major upgrade and expansion, Clontarf State Special School's new campus, Pelican Waters Estate's stages three and four development, and Clontarf Industrial Estate's expansion. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Clontarf maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Clontarf has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 3.8% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.8%.

Residents' employment rate is 0.4% lower than Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%, while workforce participation lags at 61.8%. Moderate home working was reported, with 14.6% of residents doing so. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction employment is particularly prominent, at 1.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical jobs are less represented, at 5.1%. Employment levels increased by 4.8% in Clontarf during the year to December 2025, with labour force growth of 4.0%, leading to a 0.7 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. National employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Clontarf's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Clontarf had a median income of $51,733 and an average income of $62,697. These figures are below the national average. In comparison, Greater Brisbane had a median income of $58,236 and an average income of $72,799. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 are approximately $57,610 (median) and $69,819 (average). Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Clontarf rank modestly, between the 27th and 29th percentiles. The income distribution shows that 31.5% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, which is similar to regional levels at 33.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Clontarf, with only 81.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile.

Clontarf is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Clontarf's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 78.7% houses and 21.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Brisbane metro's 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Clontarf was at 31.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.4% and rented ones at 34.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, below Brisbane metro's average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $345, compared to Brisbane metro's $380. Nationally, Clontarf's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents less than the national figure of $375.

Clontarf features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households compose 65.5% of all households, including 23.2% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 34.5%, with lone person households at 31.0% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Clontarf fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.2%, significantly lower than Greater Brisbane's average of 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.4%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.5%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.7% and certificates at 30.4%. Educational participation is high, with 25.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.5% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Clontarf has 37 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that together facilitate 494 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 194 meters away from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most Clontarf residents commute outwards for work or other purposes. Cars are the primary mode of transportation, used by 88% of residents, while only 5% use trains. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling in the area.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.6% of Clontarf residents work from home, a figure that may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 70 trips per day, which equates to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Clontarf is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Clontarf faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment, conducted on mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence as of June 2023. Both younger and older age groups show high prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover stands at approximately 52% of Clontarf's total population (~4,644 people), slightly lower than Greater Brisbane's 55.8%. Mental health issues affect 10.8% of residents, while arthritis impacts 10.5%. Conversely, 60.2% report no medical ailments, compared to 69.2% in Greater Brisbane. Working-age population health challenges are notable due to high chronic condition rates. Clontarf has 23.3% seniors (aged 65 and over), totaling 2,079 people, higher than Greater Brisbane's 15.1%. Senior health outcomes present some challenges, generally aligning with national rankings.

Clontarf ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Clontarf's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.2% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia on 79.4%, and speaking English only at home on 94.0%. Christianity was the predominant religion in Clontarf, making up 48.2% of the population. However, Judaism showed an overrepresentation with 0.1% compared to Greater Brisbane's 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.2%), Australian (25.7%), and Irish (9.9%). Notably, Maori (1.5%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 1.1%, as were New Zealanders (1.2% vs 1.0%) and Samoans (0.5% vs 0.9%).

Clontarf hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Clontarf is 46 years, significantly higher than Greater Brisbane's average of 36 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Clontarf has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (12.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (9.6%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 75 to 84 grew from 7.0% to 8.4%, while the 25 to 34 age group decreased from 10.4% to 9.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Clontarf's age structure. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 61% (454 people), reaching a total of 1,204 from the previous figure of 749. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 65% of the total population growth, reflecting Clontarf's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 age groups are projected to decrease in numbers.