Black River (Qld)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Black River reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Black River's population is estimated at around 1,645 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 152 people (10.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,493 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,645, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 50 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 26 persons per square kilometer. Black River's 10.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (7.1%), along with the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above median population growth of Australia's regional areas is projected, with the area expected to expand by 284 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 17.3% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Black River recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Black River had approximately 7 new homes approved each year. Between FY-21 to FY-25, around 38 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, for every home built over the past five financial years, there were about 3.7 new residents.

This indicates supply is lagging demand, potentially leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average construction cost value of new homes being built is around $445,000. In FY-26, commercial approvals totaled $938,000, reflecting the area's residential nature.

Compared to the rest of Queensland, Black River has slightly more development, about 18.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This maintains good buyer choice and supports existing property values, although recent development activity has moderated. Recent building activity consists solely of standalone homes, preserving the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes. The population density is approximately 294 people per dwelling approval, suggesting room for growth. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Black River to grow by about 284 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Black River has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No changes can significantly impact an area's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects likely to affect this area. Notable projects include Sunshine State Solar Farm and Battery, Bruce Highway (Townsville-Ingham) upgrade program, Queensland National Land Transport Network Maintenance, and Flinders Highway (Townsville - Torrens Creek) Pavement Strengthening and Rehabilitation (Package 1). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Black River ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Black River has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Its construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.2% as of December 2025. This rate is 0.9% lower than Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation in Black River is similar to Regional Qld's at 64.5%. According to Census responses, 10.4% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction has a particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

Health care & social assistance has limited presence at 10.4%, compared to Regional Qld's 16.1%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparison of working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, Black River's labour force increased by 0.7% while employment declined by 0.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Qld saw employment grow by 0.7%, labour force expand by 1.0%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Black River's employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against Black River's employment mix.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended June 2023 shows median income in Black River suburb is $66,811 and average income is $75,488. This compares to Regional Qld's median income of $53,146 and average income of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% from financial year ended June 2023 to March 2026, estimated current incomes are approximately $74,401 (median) and $84,063 (average). Census data indicates household, family and personal incomes in Black River are at the 58th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows largest segment is 38.7% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (636 residents), similar to regional pattern where 31.7% fall within this range. After housing costs, residents retain 87.0% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking is in the 4th decile.

Black River is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Black River, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 97.8% houses and 2.2% other dwellings. In Regional Qld, this was 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Black River was 33.1%, similar to Regional Qld's figure. The remainder of dwellings were either mortgaged (57.0%) or rented (9.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Black River was $1,625, below the Regional Qld average of $1,655. Median weekly rent was $320, compared to Regional Qld's $345. Nationally, Black River's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Black River features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 80.0% of all households, including 34.2% couples with children, 33.2% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 20.0%, with lone person households at 17.2% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Regional Queensland average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Black River exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 10.2%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 8.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (0.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 48.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (39.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.6% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Black River is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Black River experiences significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~939 people), compared to 52.5% across Regional Qld. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 8.6% and 8.5% of residents respectively. 67.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 17.3% of residents aged 65 and over (284 people), which is lower than the 20.4% in Regional Qld, but national rankings are even higher than the general population.

The latest Census data sees Black River placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Black River's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.9% of its population being citizens and 91.2% born in Australia. English was spoken exclusively at home by 98.5%. The predominant religion was Christianity, practiced by 56.3%, compared to the regional average of 52.2%.

Regarding ancestry, Australian heritage comprised 32.2%, substantially higher than the regional average of 26.5%. Other notable groups were English at 31.9% and Irish at 8.8%. There were significant differences in certain ethnic groups: Samoan representation was 0.4% (vs regional 0.2%), Australian Aboriginal was 4.1% (vs 3.9%), and German was 4.0% (vs 4.7%).

Black River's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Black River is 41 years, matching Regional Queensland's average and being somewhat older than Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Regional Queensland, Black River has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64, at 14.4%, but fewer residents aged 85 and above, at 0.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 75-84 grew from 4.0% to 5.6%, while the 15-24 age group increased from 9.1% to 10.4%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group declined from 14.0% to 12.5%, and the 5-14 age group dropped from 14.2% to 13.0%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Black River's age structure. Notably, the 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 34%, adding 71 people and reaching a total of 280 from its current figure of 208. Meanwhile, the 15-24 age group is expected to grow by a modest 1%, adding just one person.