Heatley
Statistical Area - sa2

Heatley has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Heatley's population was around 4,001 as of Aug 2025. This reflected an increase of 94 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,907 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,999 in June 2024 and an additional 1 validated new address since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 1,970 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth contributing approximately 51.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data were adopted. These state projections did not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applied proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 and based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Looking ahead, population projections indicated a decline overall by 2041, with the area's population expected to contract by 166 persons. However, growth across specific age cohorts was anticipated, led by the 25 to 34 age group projected to expand by 111 people.

The level of residential development activity in Heatley is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Heatley has seen minimal residential development activity with only 1 dwelling approval annually over the past five years, totalling 6. This low level of development reflects Heatley's rural nature, where housing needs are typically met on a local basis rather than driven by broader market demand. It is important to note that such low approval numbers can lead to considerable variations in yearly growth figures and relativities due to individual projects.

Compared to the Rest of Qld and national averages, Heatley shows significantly less construction activity. Recent development in Heatley has consisted entirely of detached houses, with a focus on family homes suited for those seeking rural lifestyle and space. Notably, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (84.0% at Census), indicating strong demand for family homes. With population projections showing stability or decline, Heatley is expected to experience reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

With population projections showing stability or decline, Heatley should see reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Heatley has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects that could impact this area. Major projects include Garbutt - Upper Ross Road (Riverway Drive) Stage 2 Duplication, Harris Crossing Estate, Kirwan Police Complex, and Kirwan Health Campus Expansion. The following details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Heatley face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Heatley's labour force comprises an equal distribution of white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well-represented. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate stands at 10.8%.

In comparison to Rest of Qld's 3.9%, Heatley's unemployment rate is 6.9% higher, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation in Heatley is lower than the regional average, at 54.7% compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Residents are primarily employed in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food sectors. The area specializes in public administration & safety, with employment share being 1.6 times the regional level.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing has minimal presence, at 0.0% compared to region's 4.5%. From June 2024 to June 2025, Heatley's labour force decreased by 1.9%, while employment declined by 4.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 2.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Qld, where employment grew by 1.8% and unemployment rose by only 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.23%, losing 8,070 jobs, while the state unemployment rate was 4.2%. Nationally, unemployment stood at 4.5%, with national employment growth at 0.26%. Job and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Heatley's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.2%% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Heatley's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $44,190. The average income stood at $52,235 during this period. In comparison, the median and average incomes for Rest of Qld were $50,780 and $64,844 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 11.71% since financial year 2022, estimated median and average incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $49,365 and $58,352 respectively. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Heatley all fell between the 18th and 21st percentiles nationally. Income distribution showed that the predominant cohort spanned 31.8% of locals (1,272 people) with incomes in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the region where this cohort likewise represented 31.7%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 84.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 19th percentile.

Heatley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Heatley's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.0% houses and 16.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Qld's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Heatley stood at 31.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.8% and rented ones at 34.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,517, and the median weekly rent was $280, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $305. Nationally, Heatley's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Heatley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 65.0% of all households, including 20.9% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 17.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 35.0%, with lone person households at 31.8% and group households at 3.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

Heatley faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.5%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.3%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.7%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.6%) and certificates (29.9%). Educational participation is high, at 29.4%, comprising primary education (10.8%), secondary education (9.3%), and tertiary education (4.0%).

Heatley's three schools have a combined enrollment of 1,170 students. Educational provision consists of one primary and two secondary institutions. The area functions as an education hub with 29.2 school places per 100 residents, higher than the regional average of 16.7.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The transport analysis indicates there are 17 active stops operating within Heatley, all of which offer bus services. These stops are served by three distinct routes, collectively facilitating 300 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of public transport is rated as good, with residents typically situated 210 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 42 daily trips across all routes, resulting in approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Heatley is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Heatley faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low, at approximately 46% (~1,848 people), compared to 53.3% in Rest of Qld and a national average of 55.3%. Arthritis and mental health issues are the most prevalent, impacting 10.4% and 10.0% respectively.

However, 59.7% report being free from medical ailments, compared to 67.8% in Rest of Qld. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 20.1% (803 people), compared to 14.9% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors broadly align with the general population's health profile.

Heatley ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Heatley had a cultural diversity index of 86.3%, with the majority of its population being Australian citizens born in Australia who speak English only at home, at rates of 86.3%, 86.3%, and 90.3%, respectively. The dominant religion in Heatley was Christianity, accounting for 55.7% of the population, compared to 52.7% across the Rest of Qld. In terms of ancestry, Australians made up 26.8%, English 25.7%, and Other 9.0%.

Notably, Australian Aboriginal (8.1%), Filipino (2.0%), and German (4.1%) populations were higher than regional averages of 5.0%, 1.1%, and 4.0%, respectively.

Heatley's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Heatley's median age is 40, close to Rest of Qld's figure of 41 but modestly exceeding the national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group shows strong representation at 9.5%, compared to Rest of Qld, while the 65-74 cohort is less prevalent at 7.5%. According to the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 12.2% to 14.4% of Heatley's population, and the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 8.2% to 9.5%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort declined from 9.6% to 7.5%, and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 12.9% to 10.9%. Demographic modeling suggests Heatley's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the 25 to 34 group projected to grow by 14 people (from 574 to 657), leading the demographic shift. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 cohorts.