Heatley

Heatley has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Heatley's population is around 4,001 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 94 people (2.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,907 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,999 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 1 validated new address since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,970 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 51.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Looking at population projections moving forward, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to contract by 166 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 25 to 34 age group, which is projected to expand by 111 people. See the age section for more details.

The level of residential development activity in Heatley is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Heatley has minimal residential development activity with 1 dwelling approval annually (totalling 6 across the past five years). These low development levels reflect the rural nature of the area, where development is typically driven by specific local housing needs rather than broad market demand. Note: with such low approval numbers, yearly growth figures and relativities can vary considerably based on individual projects.

Heatley shows significantly less construction activity than Rest of Qld. Development levels are likewise under national averages. Meanwhile, recent development has been entirely comprised of detached houses, with a focus on family homes suited to those seeking a rural lifestyle and space. Interestingly, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (84.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes despite density pressures.

With population projections showing stability or decline, Heatley should see reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Heatley has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 4 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Garbutt - Upper Ross Road (Riverway Drive) Stage 2 Duplication, Kirwan Police Complex, Kirwan Health Campus Expansion, and Willows Shopping Centre Redevelopment, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Heatley face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Heatley possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of 10.6%. As of December 2025, 1,626 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 6.5% above Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (54.4% compared to Regional Qld's 65.4%). Based on Census responses, a low 5.2% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food. The area has a particular employment specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry & fishing has a limited presence with 0.0% employment compared to 4.5% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force remained stable by 0.0% while employment declined by 2.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 2.4 percentage points. This compares to Regional Qld, where employment grew by 0.7%, the labour force expanded by 1.0%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Heatley. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Heatley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The Heatley SA2's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Heatley SA2's median income among taxpayers is $46,011 and the average income stands at $54,234, which compares to figures for Regional Qld's of $53,146 and $66,593 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $50,571 (median) and $59,609 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Heatley all fall between the 18th and 21st percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, the predominant cohort spans 31.8% of locals (1,272 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the region where this cohort likewise represents 31.7%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 19th percentile.

Heatley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Heatley, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 84.0% houses and 16.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Heatley slightly lagged that of Regional Qld, at 31.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (33.8%) or rented (34.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional Qld average at $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $280, compared to Regional Qld's $1,655 and $345. Nationally, Heatley's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Heatley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 65.0% of all households, comprising 20.9% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 17.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.0%, with lone person households at 31.8% and group households comprising 3.6% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people is smaller than the Regional Qld average of 2.5.

Heatley faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (13.5%) substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 10.3%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.7%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 38.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (8.6%) and certificates (29.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 17 active transport stops operating within Heatley, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 3 individual routes, collectively providing 300 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 210 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, and the car remains the dominant mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A relatively low 5.2% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 42 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Heatley is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Heatley, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions, particularly among older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~1,872 people), compared to 52.5% across Regional Qld and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.4% and 10.0% of residents, respectively, while 59.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 19.9% of residents aged 65 and over (796 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Heatley ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Heatley was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 86.3% of its population being citizens, 86.3% born in Australia, and 90.3% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Heatley is Christianity, which makes up 55.7% of the population, compared to 52.2% across Regional Qld.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Heatley are Australian, comprising 26.8% of the population, English, comprising 25.7% of the population, and Other, comprising 9.0% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is notably overrepresented at 8.1% of Heatley (vs 3.9% regionally), Filipino at 2.0% (vs 0.9%) and Spanish at 0.5% (vs 0.3%).

Heatley's population is slightly older than the national pattern

With a median age of 40, Heatley is close to the Regional Qld figure of 41 but modestly exceeds the national norm of 38. The 25 - 34 age group shows strong representation at 15.0% compared to Regional Qld, whereas the 65 - 74 cohort is less prevalent at 7.4%. Following the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 12.2% to 15.0% of the population, while the 0 to 4 cohort increased from 4.7% to 5.9%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 12.9% to 10.5% and the 65 to 74 group dropped from 9.6% to 7.4%. Demographic modeling suggests Heatley's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. Leading the demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 55% (71 people), reaching 202 from 130. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those 65+ comprising 52% of projected growth. Meanwhile, the 45 to 54 and 65 to 74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.