Kirwan - East

Kirwan - East has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Kirwan - East's population is around 7,910 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 217 people (2.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,693 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 7,910 from the ABS as of June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,247 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 65.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence, where utilised, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. As we examine future population trends, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to reduce by 2 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 25 to 34 age group, which is projected to increase by 266 people. See the age section for more details.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Kirwan - East, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Kirwan - East has averaged around 5 new dwelling approvals each year, totalling 29 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 2 approvals have been recorded. At an average of 2.5 new residents per year for each dwelling over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), reflecting robust demand that underpins property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $427,000. There have also been $3.3 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

Compared to the Rest of Qld, Kirwan - East shows substantially reduced construction (82.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. This is similarly below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New building activity shows 20.0% detached dwellings and 80.0% townhouses or apartments. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 84.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 2175 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market.

With the population expected to remain stable or decline, Kirwan - East should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Kirwan - East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 12 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include North Queensland Simulation Park (NQ SPARK), Kirwan Health Campus Expansion, Willowbank Estate, and Garbutt - Upper Ross Road (Riverway Drive) Stage 2 Duplication, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Kirwan - East face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Kirwan - East features a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of 11.3%. As of December 2025, 3,129 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 7.3% above Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (54.9% compared to Regional Qld's 65.4%). Based on Census responses, a low 4.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a particular employment specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level. Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry & fishing has a limited presence with 0.9% employment compared to 4.5% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.0% alongside a 3.3% employment decline, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 3.0 percentage points. This compares to Regional Qld, where employment grew by 0.7%, labour force expanded by 1.0%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Kirwan - East. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kirwan - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Kirwan - East SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $49,882 with the average level standing at $56,350. This is lower than average on a national basis and compares to levels of $53,146 and $66,593 across Regional Qld respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $54,825 (median) and $61,934 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Kirwan - East all fall between the 19th and 23rd percentiles nationally. The data shows 29.9% of the population (2,365 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 31.7% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 21st percentile.

Kirwan - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Kirwan - East, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 83.9% houses and 16.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Kirwan - East was lagging that of Regional Qld, at 29.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (33.9%) or rented (37.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional Qld average at $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $273, compared to Regional Qld's $1,655 and $345. Nationally, Kirwan - East's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kirwan - East has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 67.8% of all households, comprising 22.8% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 17.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.2%, with lone person households at 28.8% and group households comprising 3.2% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people matches the Regional Qld average.

Kirwan - East faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (13.2%) substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 9.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 39.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (8.8%) and certificates (30.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.4% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 28 active transport stops operating within Kirwan - East, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 4 individual routes, collectively providing 528 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 218 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A relatively low 4.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 75 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kirwan - East is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Kirwan - East, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~3,757 people). This compares to 52.5% across Regional Qld. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 10.9% and 9.7% of residents, respectively, while 59.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 20.1% of residents aged 65 and over (1,593 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Kirwan - East ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kirwan - East was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 86.3% of its population being citizens, 85.9% born in Australia, and 90.9% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Kirwan - East is Christianity, which makes up 56.3% of people in Kirwan - East, compared to 52.2% across Regional Qld.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Kirwan - East are English, comprising 27.1% of the population, Australian, comprising 27.0% of the population, and Other, comprising 9.0% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is notably overrepresented at 7.8% of Kirwan - East (vs 3.9% regionally), Filipino at 1.8% (vs 0.9%) and Maori at 0.6% (vs 0.8%).

Kirwan - East's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The 38-year median age in Kirwan - East is marginally below Regional Qld's average of 41 while in line with Australia's 38 years. The 15 - 24 age group shows strong representation at 14.5% compared to Regional Qld, whereas the 55 - 64 cohort is less prevalent at 10.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 11.6% to 13.4% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 13.0% to 14.5%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 11.8% to 10.3% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 11.9% to 10.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Kirwan - East. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 17% (182 people), reaching 1,240 from 1,057. Conversely, the 65 to 74 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.