Heatley

Heatley has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of November 2025, Heatley's population is estimated at around 4,001 people. This reflects an increase from the 3,907 people reported in the 2021 Census, marking a rise of 94 individuals (2.4%). The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,999 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional validated new address since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,970 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth contributing approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023 based on 2021 data are used. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits; thus, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 and based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Looking at population projections moving forward, over this period, a decline in overall population is expected. According to this methodology, Heatley's population is projected to reduce by 166 persons by 2041. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 25 to 34 age group, which is projected to grow by 112 people.

The level of residential development activity in Heatley is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Heatley's development activity is limited, averaging one approval per year over five years (from 2016 to 2020), with a total of six approvals. This low level of development is characteristic of rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is influenced by local demand and infrastructure capacity. The small sample size means that individual projects can significantly impact annual growth statistics.

Compared to the Rest of Queensland, Heatley has much lower development activity, and its pattern is also below national averages. Recent building activity consists solely of standalone homes, aligning with rural living preferences for space and privacy. New construction favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest (84.0% at Census), indicating ongoing demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. With approximately 3985 people per dwelling approval, Heatley reflects a highly mature market.

Given the expected stable or declining population, Heatley may see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers in the future.

Heatley has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely impacting the area: Garbutt - Upper Ross Road (Riverway Drive) Stage 2 Duplication, Harris Crossing Estate, Kirwan Police Complex, and Kirwan Health Campus Expansion. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Heatley face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Heatley's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well represented. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate was 10.8%.

The area had an unemployment rate 6.9% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation was lower at 54.7% compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key industries of employment were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food. The area showed strong specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence at 0.0% compared to 4.5% regionally. The predominantly residential area offered limited local employment opportunities, as seen by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, labour force decreased by 1.9%, while employment declined by 4.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 2.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Qld saw employment grow by 1.8% and labour force expand by 2.0%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Heatley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Heatley's median income among taxpayers was $44,190 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $52,235 during the same period. In comparison, Rest of Qld had figures of $50,780 and $64,844 respectively for median and average incomes. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $50,372 (median) and $59,543 (average). According to census data, household, family, and personal incomes in Heatley all fall between the 18th and 21st percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 31.8% of Heatley's population, equating to 1,272 individuals, fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to metropolitan regions where 31.7% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Heatley, with only 84.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 19th percentile nationally.

Heatley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Heatley's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.0% houses and 16.0% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Heatley was higher at 31.3%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (33.8%) or rented (34.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Heatley was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,517 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Heatley was recorded at $280, significantly lower than Non-Metro Qld's $305 and the national figure of $375.

Heatley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 65.0% of all households, including 20.9% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 17.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 35.0%, with lone person households at 31.8% and group households comprising 3.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

Heatley faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.5%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.3%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.7%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (8.6%) and certificates (29.9%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education. Heatley's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,170 students. The area has varied educational conditions (ICSEA: 851) and conventional educational provision split between 1 primary and 2 secondary institutions. It functions as an education hub with 29.2 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 16.7, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Heatley shows that there are currently 17 operational transport stops serving a variety of bus routes. These stops are covered by three different routes, together offering around 300 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these services is considered good, with residents generally living about 210 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, each route provides approximately 42 daily trips, which amounts to roughly 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Heatley is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Health challenges are prominent across Heatley, affecting various age groups. Approximately 48% (~1,916 people) have private health cover, lower than Rest of Qld's 53.3% and the national average of 55.3%. Common conditions include arthritis (10.4%) and mental health issues (10.0%).

Around 59.7% report no medical ailments, compared to 67.8% in Rest of Qld. Heatley has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.0% (800 people), compared to Rest of Qld's 14.9%. Senior health outcomes broadly align with the general population's profile.

Heatley ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Heatley's population showed low cultural diversity, with 86.3% being Australian citizens, born in Australia, and speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Heatley, accounting for 55.7%, slightly higher than the regional average of 52.7%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (26.8%), English (25.7%), and Other (9.0%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal (8.1%) and Filipino (2.0%) communities were overrepresented compared to the regional averages of 5.0% and 1.1%, respectively. The Spanish community was also slightly higher at 0.5%.

Heatley's median age exceeds the national pattern

Heatley's median age is 40, close to Rest of Qld's figure of 41 but exceeding the national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group shows strong representation at 9.5%, compared to Rest of Qld's figure, while the 65-74 cohort is less prevalent at 7.5%. Post-2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group grew from 12.2% to 14.3%, and the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 8.2% to 9.5%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort declined from 9.6% to 7.5%, and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 12.9% to 10.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Heatley's age profile will significantly evolve, led by the 25 to 34 group growing by 15%, reaching 657 from 572. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 cohorts.