Heatley

Heatley has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census the suburb of Heatley's population is estimated at around 4,042 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 135 people (3.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,907 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,023, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,991 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the suburb of Heatley was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Moving forward with demographic trends, over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the suburb of Heatley's population expected to reduce by 167 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to grow by 84 people. See the age section for more details.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Heatley according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

In Heatley, building activity is extremely quiet with only one new home approved on an annual basis, totaling 6 approvals over a five-year period. Such low numbers of starts highlight the non-urban character of the locality, where construction tends to be triggered by specific local residential requirements rather than wider market demand. It is worth noting that with such minor approval volumes, year-on-year growth rates and comparisons can shift dramatically due to single projects.

Heatley displays much lower levels of building activity than the Rest of Qld, with development rates also tracking well underneath national benchmarks. Recent residential construction is composed entirely of standalone houses, reflecting an emphasis on family properties tailored to buyers looking for a rural lifestyle and open space. Developers are opting to build these classic houses at a higher rate than the existing housing stock profile would suggest, which was 84.0% at the Census, indicating that demand for family homes remains robust despite broader pressure toward higher density. The area averages roughly 4012 individuals for every residential approval, pointing to an established real estate market.

Given that demographic forecasts indicate a stable or contracting population, Heatley is anticipated to experience reduced pressure on housing demand, which should prove advantageous for prospective purchasers.

Heatley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure, major development projects, and urban planning schemes have a significant impact on local performance. In total, 4 projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to influence this area. Significant projects include the Garbutt - Upper Ross Road (Riverway Drive) Stage 2 Duplication, the Townsville University Hospital Expansion, the Kirwan Police Complex, and the Kirwan Health Campus Expansion, with the details of the most relevant developments listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Heatley face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

The local workforce shows a relatively equal distribution between professional and manual occupations, with a strong representation in public service sectors, alongside an unemployment rate of 10.8% according to aggregated regional statistics. In the month of March 2026, there were 1,604 employed residents, representing an unemployment rate that exceeds Regional Qld's rate of 3.9% by 6.9%, which indicates room for improvement, while labor force participation is notably lower at 53.7% compared to the 64.3% recorded across Regional Qld. Census records indicate that a minimal 5.2% of the working population operated from home, though the influence of pandemic lockdowns should be kept in mind.

The primary sectors employing local residents are healthcare & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food services. Public administration & safety shows a particularly high concentration locally, with its share of employment reaching 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, the agriculture, forestry & fishing sector has no presence at all, recording no local employment compared to 4.5% across the region. Comparison of the Census working population against the resident population suggests this residential pocket offers few local jobs.

An analysis of SALM and ABS data aggregated from the surrounding region indicates that for the year ending March 2026, the local workforce shrank by 1.9% and total employment fell by 3.4%, leading to a 1.4 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. This is in contrast to Regional Qld, which recorded a 0.1% rise in employment and a 0.3% expansion of the labor force, resulting in a minor 0.1 percentage point increase in unemployment. National employment projections released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25 offer additional context regarding future demand. These five and ten-year projections have been mapped against the local industry profile to estimate potential growth. Nationally, employment is predicted to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though these rates vary widely by industry. Projecting these national sectoral trends onto the local workforce distribution suggests employment in the area could rise by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a basic weighted projection for illustration and does not incorporate local demographic forecasts.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to the latest postcode-level ATO statistics for the 2023 financial year, local incomes are below national benchmarks, showing a median income of $44,190 and an average income of $52,235. By comparison, Regional Qld recorded a median of $53,146 and an average of $66,593. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index increase of 11.36% since the 2023 financial year, current local figures are estimated to be approximately $49,210 for the median and $58,169 for the average as of March 2026. Data from the 2021 Census places household, family, and personal incomes in this area between the 18th and 21st percentiles nationwide. Looking at income distribution, 31.8% of residents (1,285 individuals) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, which is very similar to the regional proportion of 31.7%. Housing affordability is a significant issue, with residents retaining only 84.3% of their income, placing the area in the 19th percentile.

Heatley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The local housing profile at the last Census showed that standalone houses accounted for 84.0% of properties, while 16.0% consisted of alternative housing types like semi-detached dwellings or apartments, compared to 76.4% houses and 23.6% other options in Regional Qld. Home ownership rates stood at 31.3%, slightly trailing the regional average, with the remaining properties divided between those with a mortgage (33.8%) and rental homes (34.9%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,300 was far lower than the Regional Qld average, while the median weekly rent was recorded at $280, compared to regional figures of $1,655 and $345 respectively. On a national level, local mortgage costs are considerably below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are also much lower than the national figure of $375.

Heatley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up the majority of households at 65.0%, which is composed of couples with children at 20.9%, couples without children at 23.9%, and single parent households at 17.6%. The remaining 35.0% consists of non-family households, with single-person households representing 31.8% and shared group houses at 3.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, slightly below the Regional Qld average of 2.5.

Heatley faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

Tertiary educational attainment in the area is lower than average, with university graduation rates at 13.5% sitting well below the national mark of 30.4%. This highlights a clear opportunity for targeted educational programs. Among university graduates, bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.3%, followed by graduate diplomas at 1.7% and postgraduate degrees at 1.5%. Vocational training is much more prominent, with 38.5% of residents aged 15+ holding trade credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas at 8.6% and certificates at 29.9%.

Student enrollment levels are high, with 29.4% of the local population currently engaged in study. This group includes 10.8% attending primary school, 9.3% in secondary school, and 4.0% enrolled in tertiary institutions.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

An analysis of local transit options shows 17 active bus stops operating in the area. These stops are serviced by 3 separate routes, which combine to support 300 passenger journeys each week. Public transit access is rated highly, with homes located an average of 210 meters from the nearest stop. Because the area is mostly residential, the majority of working residents travel out of the area for employment, with private cars remaining the primary travel mode at 93%. Car ownership stands at an average of 1.2 vehicles per household, which is below the regional average. A relatively small 5.2% of residents worked from home, based on the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 restrictions.

Transit service frequency averages 42 journeys per day across all routes, which corresponds to approximately 17 weekly trips for each bus stop.

Health performance in Heatley is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

The local population faces notable health challenges, as indicated by mortality figures and the prevalence of chronic health issues across both younger and older demographics, while the proportion of residents with private health insurance is particularly low at roughly 48% of the population, which is about 1,936 people. This is lower than the 52.5% recorded across Regional Qld and the national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent issues locally, affecting 10.4% and 10.0% of the population respectively, while 59.7% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. Chronic health issues are elevated among the working-age population. Residents aged 65 and over make up 20.1% of the population, totaling 812 people, with seniors showing health outcomes and national health rankings that broadly align with the wider population.

Heatley ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

The local population displays lower levels of cultural diversity than average, with citizenship at 86.3%, Australian-born residents at 86.3%, and monolingual English speakers at 90.3%. Christianity is the primary religion, followed by 55.7% of the population, compared to 52.2% across Regional Qld.

Looking at parent birthplaces, the most common ancestries are Australian at 26.8%, English at 25.7%, and Other at 9.0%. There are also several distinct ethnic demographic differences, with Australian Aboriginal residents making up 8.1% of the population compared to 3.9% regionally, Filipino residents at 2.0% compared to 0.9% regionally, and Spanish heritage at 0.5% compared to 0.3% regionally.

Heatley's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age of 40 is close to the Regional Qld median of 41 and slightly higher than the national median of 38. The 75 - 84 age cohort is well represented at 9.1% compared to the wider region, while the 65 - 74 bracket is less common at 7.7%. Since the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age bracket rose from 12.2% to 14.4% and the 0 to 4 group grew from 4.7% to 6.1%. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 cohort shrank from 12.9% to 10.8% and the 65 to 74 group decreased from 9.6% to 7.7%. Demographic modeling indicates the age profile will change significantly by 2041, led by a 56% growth in the 85+ cohort, which will add 74 people to reach 208 from 133. This aging trend is prominent, with those aged 65+ making up 58% of all projected population growth, while the 45 to 54 and 65 to 74 cohorts are projected to contract.