Heatley

Heatley has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Heatley is around 4,001 people. This figure reflects an increase of 94 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,907 people. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 3,999 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of one new address since the Census date. The current population density ratio stands at 1,970 persons per square kilometer, exceeding national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Natural growth contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered or years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023 based on 2021 data are used. However, these state projections lack age category splits; thus, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings aligned with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 and based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Looking ahead, population projections indicate a decline of 166 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 25 to 34 age group projected to increase by 112 people.

The level of residential development activity in Heatley is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Heatley's development activity has been limited, averaging one approval per year over five years (six approvals). This is typical of rural areas with modest housing needs and construction activity constrained by local demand and infrastructure capacity. Note that the small sample size can significantly impact annual growth and relativity statistics.

Heatley's development activity is notably lower than Rest of Qld and national averages. Recent building activity consists solely of standalone homes, reflecting rural living preferences for space and privacy. New construction favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest (84.0% at Census), indicating robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. With approximately 3985 people per dwelling approval, Heatley's market is highly mature.

Given the expected stable or declining population, Heatley may experience reduced housing pressure, potentially presenting buying opportunities.

Heatley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects potentially impacting the region: Garbutt - Upper Ross Road (Riverway Drive) Stage 2 Duplication, Kirwan Police Complex, Kirwan Health Campus Expansion, and Willows Shopping Centre Redevelopment.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Heatley face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Heatley has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs well represented. Essential services sectors are prominent. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 10.8%.

This is 6.8% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation lags at 55.2%, compared to Rest of Qld's 65.7%. Census data shows that only 5.2% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food.

The area has a strong specialization in public administration & safety with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.0% compared to region's 4.5%. Local employment opportunities appear limited as Census working population is lower than resident population. In the 12-month period ending in May-25, labour force increased by 0.1%, while employment declined by 2.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.9 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Qld where employment grew by 1.7% and unemployment rose by 0.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Heatley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Heatley's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2023 was $44,190. The average income stood at $52,235 during the same period. These figures compare to Rest of Qld's median and average incomes of $53,146 and $66,593 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Heatley would be approximately $48,569 (median) and $57,411 (average) as of September 2025. According to census data, household, family, and personal incomes in Heatley all fall between the 18th and 21st percentiles nationally. In terms of income distribution, 31.8% of Heatley's population (1,272 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - 2,999 range, similar to metropolitan regions where 31.7% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Heatley, with only 84.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 19th percentile nationally.

Heatley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Heatley's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 84.0% houses and 16.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Heatley was at 31.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.8% and rented dwellings at 34.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,655. The median weekly rent figure in Heatley was $280, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $345. Nationally, Heatley's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Heatley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 65.0% of all households, including 20.9% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 17.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.0%, with lone person households at 31.8% and group households comprising 3.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

Heatley faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.5%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.3%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.7%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas comprise 8.6% while certificates account for 29.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Heatley has 17 active public transport stops operating within it, with a mix of bus services. These stops are served by three individual routes that collectively facilitate 300 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 210 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, only 5.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 42 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 17 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Heatley is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Heatley faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 48% of Heatley's total population (~1,916 people), compared to 52.5% in the rest of Queensland and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.4%) and mental health issues (10.0%), while 59.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 67.6% in the rest of Queensland. Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. The area has 19.9% of residents aged 65 and over (796 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings generally aligned with the overall population.

Heatley ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Heatley's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.3% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia, and speaking English only at home by the year 2016. Christianity was the predominant religion in Heatley, comprising 55.7% of the population, compared to 52.2% across the rest of Queensland during that period. In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups were Australian (26.8%), English (25.7%), and Other (9.0%).

Notably, certain ethnic groups had different representations: Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 8.1%, compared to 3.9% regionally; Filipino at 2.0%, versus 0.9%; and Spanish at 0.5%, compared to 0.3%.

Heatley's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Heatley has a median age of 40, which is close to Rest of Qld's figure of 41 but exceeds the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 15.0% of Heatley's population, higher than Rest of Qld, while the 65-74 cohort comprises 7.4%, which is lower. According to the 2021 Census, Heatley's 25 to 34 age group grew from 12.2% to 15.0%, and the 0 to 4 cohort increased from 4.7% to 5.9%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort declined from 12.9% to 10.5%, and the 65 to 74 group dropped from 9.6% to 7.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Heatley's age profile will change significantly. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 57%, reaching 201 people from 128. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 53% of the population growth. Meanwhile, the 45 to 54 and 65 to 74 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.