Kirwan

Kirwan has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of November 2025, Kirwan's population is estimated at around 21,254 people. This figure reflects an increase of 474 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 20,780 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population being 21,257 after examining ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and an additional 26 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,815 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Natural growth contributed approximately 56.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods.

For demographic projections, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted, applying proportional growth weightings from ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort when utilised. Over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population by 645 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, specific age cohorts like the 25 to 34 group are expected to grow, with an anticipated increase of 629 people.

The level of residential development activity in Kirwan is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Kirwan shows approximately 10 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years ending FY26. This totals an estimated 54 homes. As of FY26, 3 approvals have been recorded. The population decline in recent years suggests that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering good choice to buyers.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $596,000. In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $21.3 million, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Kirwan has significantly less development activity, 88.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 50.0% detached houses and 50.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently 89.0% houses.

With around 1325 people per dwelling approval, Kirwan reflects a highly mature market. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Kirwan may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Kirwan has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Kirwan Health Campus Expansion, Willowbank Estate, Townsville Connection Road (Stuart Drive) Upgrade, and Kirwan Police Complex. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Kirwan has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Kirwan's workforce comprises an equal mix of white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate stands at 5.8%, as per AreaSearch's aggregated statistical area data.

As of June 2025, 10,464 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.9% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation is slightly above the regional average at 64.0%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and public administration & safety. Notably, public administration & safety employs 1.9 times more residents than the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.5% of local workers, below Rest of Qld's 4.5%.

Over the year to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.8%, with employment declining by 3.6%, leading to a 1.8 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Rest of Qld saw employment growth of 1.8% and labour force growth of 2.0%, with unemployment rising by only 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kirwan's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

Kirwan's median taxpayer income was $57,217 and average was $64,898 in financial year 2022, according to latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is roughly the national average, differing from Rest of Qld's median income of $50,780 and average income of $64,844. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $65,222 (median) and $73,977 (average). Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Kirwan rank modestly, between the 45th and 51st percentiles. Income distribution reveals that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 36.4% of residents (7,736 people), similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 31.7%. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses.

Kirwan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kirwan's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.9% houses and 11.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Qld's 81.3% houses and 18.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kirwan stood at 27.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.6% and rented ones at 35.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,450, lower than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,517. The median weekly rent figure in Kirwan was $325, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $305. Nationally, Kirwan's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,450 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kirwan has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households compose 74.3% of all households, including 29.2% couples with children, 28.3% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.7%, with lone person households at 22.4% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Kirwan fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.7%, substantially lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas comprise 10.4% and certificates make up 29.5%. Educational participation is high at 31.5%, including 11.1% in primary education, 10.1% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Kirwan's four schools have a combined enrollment of 5,488 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 958) offering balanced educational opportunities. The area has two primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school, functioning as an education hub with 25.8 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 16.7, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 50 active stops operating in Kirwan, serving a mix of bus routes. These are covered by four individual routes, offering 528 weekly passenger trips collectively. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 292 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 75 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 10 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Kirwan is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Kirwan faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, particularly among older age cohorts to a considerably higher degree.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 53% of the total population (~11,247 people), leading that of the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 9.8% and 8.8% of residents respectively. A total of 65.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.8% across Rest of Qld. As of 2016, the area has 16.5% of residents aged 65 and over (3,506 people), which is higher than the 14.9% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Kirwan ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kirwan's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.7% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (86.3%), and speaking English only at home (91.9%). Christianity was the predominant religion in Kirwan, comprising 57.6%, compared to 52.7% across Rest of Qld. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (28.0%), English (27.2%), and Irish (7.9%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 6.2% in Kirwan than the regional average of 5.0%. Maori and Samoan representations also differed slightly, with Maori at 0.6% compared to 0.5%, and Samoan at 0.2% compared to 0.1%.

Kirwan's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Kirwan is 38 years, which is slightly below Rest of Qld's average of 41 but aligns with Australia's median age of 38. The 15-24 age group makes up 14.7% of Kirwan's population compared to Rest of Qld, while the 75-84 cohort constitutes 5.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has increased from 4.4% to 5.5% of the population. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 14.5% to 13.2%, and the 45-54 cohort has dropped from 13.8% to 12.5%. Population forecasts for Kirwan in 2041 indicate significant demographic shifts, with the 25-34 age group expected to grow by 19% (507 people), reaching 3,249 from 2,741. Conversely, the 35-44 and 65-74 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.