Southern Moreton Bay Islands

Southern Moreton Bay Islands lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Southern Moreton Bay Islands' population is approximately 10,021 as of November 2025. This represents an increase of 1,540 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,481. The growth from June 2024's estimated resident population of 9,993 and additional validated new addresses accounts for this change. The resulting population density is around 251 persons per square kilometer. The islands' 18.2% population growth since the 2021 Census exceeds the SA4 region's 7.7% and the national average, making it a growth leader in the area. Interstate migration contributed approximately 89.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, based on 2021 data and released in 2023. These state projections do not provide age category splits; therefore, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 using 2022 data. Based on projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase is forecast for the area, with an expected growth of 3,126 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 30.9% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Southern Moreton Bay Islands was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Southern Moreton Bay Islands has seen approximately 255 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, 1,276 homes were approved, with an additional 177 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, over these five years, each new home has attracted 1.7 new residents annually, indicating balanced supply and demand, stable market conditions, and affordable housing options, with new homes averaging $170,000 in construction cost value, below the regional average.

This financial year has seen $200,000 in commercial approvals, highlighting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Southern Moreton Bay Islands has 201.0% more new home approvals per person, offering greater choice for buyers and indicating robust developer interest. Recent development has been exclusively detached dwellings, preserving low density and attracting space-seeking buyers, with around 39 people per dwelling approval. Population forecasts estimate an increase of 3,098 residents by 2041, suggesting current construction levels will meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth exceeding current forecasts.

Population forecasts indicate Southern Moreton Bay Islands will gain 3,098 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Southern Moreton Bay Islands has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 18thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely impacting the area: Marina Redland Bay, Scenic Shores State School, Shoreline Redlands Master-Planned Community, and Southern Moreton Bay Islands Ferry Terminals Upgrade. The following details those most relevant.

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Employment drivers in Southern Moreton Bay Islands are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Southern Moreton Bay Islands has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

The area specializes in construction, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 5.1% compared to Greater Brisbane's 8.9%. As of September 2025, 2,885 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 11.3%, significantly higher than Greater Brisbane's 4.0%. Workforce participation is also lower at 31.1% compared to Greater Brisbane's 64.5%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 8.8%. In comparison, Greater Brisbane recorded employment growth of 3.8%. State-level data from 25-Nov shows Queensland employment contracted by 0.01%, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. National employment forecasts suggest a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but local growth patterns may differ based on industry-specific projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Southern Moreton Bay Islands SA2 was $32,445 and average was $43,126 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Brisbane having a median income of $55,645 and average income of $70,520. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $36,984 and average $49,159 based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022. Census data shows household, family and personal incomes in Southern Moreton Bay Islands are between the 0th and 1st percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that 42.0% (4,208 individuals) fall within the $400 - $799 earnings band, contrasting with metropolitan regions where the leading bracket is $1,500 - $2,999 at 33.3%. Economic circumstances show widespread financial pressure, with 54.2% of households operating on weekly budgets below $800. After housing costs, 85.4% of income remains, ranking at the 2nd percentile nationally.

Southern Moreton Bay Islands is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Southern Moreton Bay Islands, as recorded in the latest Census, 99.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 0.6% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. In contrast, Brisbane metro had 83.9% houses and 16.1% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Southern Moreton Bay Islands was 52.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.4% and rented ones at 23.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $904, lower than Brisbane metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was $260, compared to Brisbane metro's $425. Nationally, Southern Moreton Bay Islands' mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Southern Moreton Bay Islands features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 53.6% of all households, including 9.1% couples with children, 33.7% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 46.4%, with lone person households at 40.8% and group households comprising 5.7%. The median household size is 1.9 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Southern Moreton Bay Islands faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.3%, significantly lower than Greater Brisbane's average of 30.5%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 10.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are common, with 45.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas account for 12.5% and certificates for 32.6%.

School and university attendance comprises 19.1% of the community, including 6.3% in primary education, 6.1% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows six active stops operating in Southern Moreton Bay Islands, offering a mix of ferry services. These are served by one route collectively providing 407 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated limited, with residents typically located 2688 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 58 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 67 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Southern Moreton Bay Islands is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Southern Moreton Bay Islands face significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low at approximately 47% of the total population (~4,669 people), compared to 54.2% in Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (15.0%) and mental health issues (12.3%), while 47.2% report no medical ailments, lower than the 64.6% in Greater Brisbane.

Residents aged 65 and over comprise 42.8%, higher than the 25.3% in Greater Brisbane. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but better than those of the general population.

Southern Moreton Bay Islands ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Southern Moreton Bay Islands had a cultural diversity level below average, with 84.2% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (73.5%), and speaking English only at home (95.1%). Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 49.1% of the population there, compared to Greater Brisbane's 36.0%. The 'Other' religious category showed an overrepresentation in Southern Moreton Bay Islands at 1.0%, higher than the regional average of 0.6%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (34.1%), Australian (22.8%), and Irish (10.7%). Notably, Scottish ancestry was overrepresented at 9.8% compared to Greater Brisbane's 8.9%, New Zealand at 1.3% versus 1.2%, and French at 0.8% against the regional average of 0.5%.

Southern Moreton Bay Islands ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Southern Moreton Bay Islands is 61 years, significantly higher than Greater Brisbane's average of 36 years and the national norm of 38 years. Compared to Greater Brisbane, the 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented at 25.8% locally, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 3.8%. The concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 11.7% to 14.6% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 5.5% to 6.8%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 12.9% to 11.4%. By 2041, Southern Moreton Bay Islands is expected to see significant shifts in its age composition. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to expand considerably, growing by 1,156 people (79%) from 1,463 to 2,620. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 84% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. On the other hand, both the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.