Southern Moreton Bay Islands

Southern Moreton Bay Islands lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Southern Moreton Bay Islands's population is around 10,994 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 2,513 people (29.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,481 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,993 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 147 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 275 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Southern Moreton Bay Islands's 29.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (8.3%) and the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 89.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence, where utilised, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 3,126 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 19.3% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Southern Moreton Bay Islands was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Southern Moreton Bay Islands has seen around 255 new homes approved each year, with 1,276 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 217 so far in FY-26. At an average of 1.7 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, while new homes are being built at an average value of $170,000—below the regional average—suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Additionally, $200,000 in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating the area's residential nature.

When measured against Greater Brisbane, Southern Moreton Bay Islands has 201.0% more new home approvals (per person), creating greater choice for buyers. This activity is significantly above the national average, indicating robust developer interest in the area. Further, recent development has been entirely comprised of detached dwellings, preserving the area's low-density nature, with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 39 people per dwelling approval, Southern Moreton Bay Islands shows characteristics of a growth area.

Population forecasts indicate Southern Moreton Bay Islands will gain 2,125 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Southern Moreton Bay Islands has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 23rdth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 4 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Marina Redland Bay, Scenic Shores State School, Shoreline Redlands Master-Planned Community, and Southern Moreton Bay Islands Ferry Terminals Upgrade, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Southern Moreton Bay Islands face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Southern Moreton Bay Islands possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 17.8%, and 3.1% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 2,821 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 13.7% above Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (36.9% compared to Greater Brisbane's 71.2%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 20.7% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. On the other hand, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 5.1% of Southern Moreton Bay Islands's workforce compared to 8.9% in Greater Brisbane. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.1% and the labour force increased by 5.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 2.0 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Brisbane recorded employment growth of 3.2%, labour force growth of 3.0%, with unemployment falling 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Southern Moreton Bay Islands. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Southern Moreton Bay Islands's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.6% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The Southern Moreton Bay Islands SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $34,958 and an average of $46,170 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is lower than average on a national basis, contrasting with Greater Brisbane's median income of $58,236 and average income of $72,799. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $38,422 (median) and $50,745 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Southern Moreton Bay Islands all fall between the 0th and 1st percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate the $400 - 799 earnings band captures 42.0% of the community (4,617 individuals), contrasting with the metropolitan region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 33.3%. Economic circumstances reflect widespread financial pressure, with 54.2% of households operating within modest weekly budgets below $800. After housing, 85.4% of income remains, though this ranks at only the 2nd percentile nationally.

Southern Moreton Bay Islands is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Southern Moreton Bay Islands, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 99.4% houses and 0.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Brisbane metro's 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Southern Moreton Bay Islands was well beyond that of Brisbane metro, at 52.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (23.4%) or rented (23.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Brisbane metro average at $904, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $260, compared to Brisbane metro's $1,863 and $380. Nationally, Southern Moreton Bay Islands's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Southern Moreton Bay Islands features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 53.6% of all households, comprising 9.1% couples with children, 33.7% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 46.4%, with lone person households at 40.8% and group households comprising 5.7% of the total. The median household size of 1.9 people is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Southern Moreton Bay Islands faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (15.3%) substantially below the Greater Brisbane average of 30.5%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 10.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 45.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (32.6%).

School and university attendance encompasses 19.1% of the community. This includes 6.3% in primary education, 6.1% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 6 active transport stops operating within Southern Moreton Bay Islands comprising a mix of ferry. These stops are serviced by 1 individual route, collectively providing 407 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 2688 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - the car remains the dominant mode at 62%, with 12% by bus and 6% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 0.8 per dwelling, below the regional average. Some 20.7% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 58 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 67 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Southern Moreton Bay Islands is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Southern Moreton Bay Islands, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~5,090 people). This compares to 55.8% across Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 15.0 and 12.3% of residents, respectively, while 47.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 69.2% across Greater Brisbane. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 44.4% of residents aged 65 and over (4,884 people), which is higher than the 15.2% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Southern Moreton Bay Islands ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Southern Moreton Bay Islands was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 84.2% of its population being citizens, 73.5% born in Australia, and 95.1% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Southern Moreton Bay Islands is Christianity, which makes up 49.1% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 1.0% of the population, compared to 1.3% across Greater Brisbane.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Southern Moreton Bay Islands are English, comprising 34.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 26.8%, Australian, comprising 22.8% of the population, and Irish, comprising 10.7% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Scottish is notably overrepresented at 9.8% of Southern Moreton Bay Islands (vs 7.4% regionally), New Zealand at 1.3% (vs 1.0%) and French at 0.8% (vs 0.5%).

Southern Moreton Bay Islands ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The 61-year median age in Southern Moreton Bay Islands is significantly above Greater Brisbane's average of 36 and considerably older than the national norm of 38. Compared to the Greater Brisbane average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented (26.2% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (3.4%). This 65 - 74 concentration is well above the national 9.5%. Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 11.7% to 15.4% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 5.5% to 6.9%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.9% to 11.1% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 22.8% to 21.4%. By 2041, Southern Moreton Bay Islands is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to expand considerably, increasing by 924 people (55%) from 1,695 to 2,620. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 89% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. On the other hand, both the 5 to 14 and 25 to 34 age groups will see reduced numbers.