Cowra Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cowra Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Cowra Surrounds' population is 5,879 as of November 2025, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure represents a growth of 163 people from the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,716. The increase was inferred from an estimated resident population of 5,778 in June 2024 and 99 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1.9 persons per square kilometer. Cowra Surrounds' growth rate of 2.9% since the 2021 census surpassed the SA3 area's growth rate of 0.4%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 63.2% to recent population gains in the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest an increase just below the median of regional areas nationwide, with Cowra Surrounds expected to gain 486 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers. This reflects a total increase of 6.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Cowra Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Cowra Surrounds has averaged approximately 19 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 95 homes were approved, with an additional 3 approved in FY26 so far. The average population growth per year for each dwelling built over these five years was 1.6 people.

This balance between supply and demand has resulted in stable market conditions, with new properties constructed at an average expected cost of $318,000. In the current financial year, $4.9 million worth of commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of NSW, Cowra Surrounds has seen somewhat elevated construction activity, with 18.0% more approvals per capita over the past five years. However, this activity has recently eased and is below the national average, suggesting maturity in the area and possible planning constraints.

The majority of new building activity involves standalone homes (93.0%), maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. As of FY25, there were an estimated 442 people per dwelling approval in Cowra Surrounds, reflecting its quiet development environment. Future projections estimate that Cowra Surrounds will add 379 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply is expected to readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Cowra Surrounds has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 34thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 15 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Cowra High School Adjacent Residential Subdivision, Chardonnay Hills Estate, Bonsai Gardens Estate, and Yarrabilly Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

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While Cowra Surrounds retains a healthy unemployment rate of 2.9%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Cowra Surrounds has a balanced workforce with equal representation of white and blue collar jobs across various sectors. As of September 2025, it has an unemployment rate of 2.9%.

This is 0.9% lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%, but workforce participation is lower at 51.6% compared to 56.4%. Key industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. There is strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share six times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented at 12.3% compared to 16.9% in Rest of NSW.

The area may have limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 3.4% and employment declined by 4.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.0 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.5%, labour force contract by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4%. State-level data from 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, better than the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary between sectors. Applying these projections to Cowra Surrounds' employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 5.1% over five years and 11.6% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows Cowra Surrounds SA2 had lower than average incomes nationally. The median income was $43,389 and the average was $54,018. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average of $62,998. Using a 12.61% growth from financial year 2022 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $48,860 (median) and $60,830 (average). Census 2021 data places Cowra Surrounds' household, family, and personal incomes between the 10th and 11th percentiles nationally. Income brackets show 27.7% of individuals fall within the $400-$799 range. Housing costs are modest with 90.0% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at the 17th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Cowra Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Cowra Surrounds' dwellings were 96.9% houses and 3.1% other types at the latest Census. Non-Metro NSW had 92.0% houses and 8.0% others. Home ownership in Cowra Surrounds was 53.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.3% and rented ones at 16.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,164, lower than Non-Metro NSW's $1,200. Median weekly rent was $210, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $220. Nationally, Cowra Surrounds' mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,164 versus Australia's $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375 at $210.

Cowra Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 68.6 percent of all households, including 23.7 percent that are couples with children, 34.5 percent that are couples without children, and 9.3 percent that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.4 percent, with lone person households at 28.1 percent and group households comprising 3.3 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which matches the average for the Rest of NSW.

Cowra Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 16.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (30.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The Cowra Surrounds area has 457 active public transport stops in operation. These are served by a mix of buses operating along 41 individual routes. The total number of weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes is 349.

Residents' accessibility to public transport is rated as good, with an average distance of 301 meters to the nearest stop. Service frequency across all routes averages 49 trips per day, which translates to approximately 0 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cowra Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Cowra Surrounds faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Only approximately 47% of its total population (~2,763 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (13.0%) and mental health issues (8.8%). Conversely, 60.5% report no medical ailments, compared to 62.4% in Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 28.0% (1,647 people), versus 23.8% in Rest of NSW. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors show some improvements compared to the general population.

The latest Census data sees Cowra Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cowra Surrounds had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 87.5% of its population being citizens, 92.5% born in Australia, and 97.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, making up 68.9% of Cowra Surrounds' population, compared to 70.4% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (33.2%), English (32.7%), and Irish (10.3%).

Notably, Maltese was overrepresented at 0.9%, compared to the regional average of 0.3%. Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 3.4% than the regional average of 7.9%, and Scottish representation was also relatively high at 8.2%, compared to the regional average of 7.2%.

Cowra Surrounds ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Cowra Surrounds has a median age of 50, which is higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and also above the national average of 38. The age group of 55-64 years shows strong representation at 16.4% in Cowra Surrounds compared to Rest of NSW, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 8.2%. This concentration of the 55-64 age group is well above the national figure of 11.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.2% to 10.9% of Cowra Surrounds' population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 9.9% to 11.3%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 15.7% to 14.0%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 13.4% to 11.9%. Demographic modeling suggests that Cowra Surrounds' age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 85+ age cohort is projected to increase markedly, expanding by 183 people (99%) from 186 to 370. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 63% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 15-24 cohorts.