Grenfell

Grenfell has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Grenfell has a population of approximately 3,550 as of May 2026, according to analysis by AreaSearch. Compared to the 2021 Census, which counted 3,597 people, this represents a decrease of 47 residents (1.3%). This shift is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 3,549 and 51 validated new addresses registered since the Census. The density of the area stands at 1.1 persons per square kilometer, which indicates residents have plenty of space. The -1.3% decline in Grenfell is close to the SA3 regional decline of -0.6%, differing by only 0.7 percentage points and showing that population patterns are comparable across the broader district. The main contributor to population increases in recent times was overseas migration, which served as the primary source of growth.

Projections for each SA2 area are sourced from ABS/Geoscience Australia data published in 2024, using 2022 as the baseline. For SA2 regions lacking this dataset, figures are drawn from the 2022 NSW State Government projections, which use 2021 as the baseline. The age group growth rates derived from these sources are applied to all locations for the period spanning 2032 to 2041. Based on this approach, the total population is projected to shrink by 98 persons by 2041. Despite this overall contraction, some age brackets are set to expand, particularly the 85 and over cohort, which is expected to rise by 70 people.

The level of residential development activity in Grenfell is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

On average, Grenfell records about 7 new residential approvals each year, with 35 dwellings approved during the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, and 5 approved so far in FY-26. This pace of construction has been sufficient relative to the falling population, which benefits buyers, and new residences carry an average build cost of $286,000, aligning with regional standards. Furthermore, commercial approvals totaling $1.5 million have been registered during this financial year, highlighting the predominantly residential character of the locality.

Grenfell registers about 69% of the per capita construction volume seen in the Rest of NSW, placing it in the 22nd percentile of areas evaluated nationwide, which limits options for buyers and increases demand for existing properties. This level of building is also below the national average, indicating a mature market and potential planning barriers. Recent construction is comprised solely of standalone houses, maintaining a low-density profile focused on detached residences that appeal to buyers looking for space. There are approximately 743 people in the area for every single dwelling approval, reflecting a quiet market with low construction volume.

Because the population is projected to remain steady or contract, Grenfell is likely to experience less pressure on housing, which may open up opportunities for purchasers.

Grenfell has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects, planning changes, and major works have a significant impact on area performance. AreaSearch has identified 4 key projects that are likely to influence the local area: Inland Rail - Stockinbingal to Parkes, Inland Rail - Illabo to Stockinbingal, Olympic Highway Safety Improvements, and the Cowra Drought Resilience Plan, with the details of the most relevant projects listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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While Grenfell retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.1%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

The local economy features a balanced mix of white-collar and blue-collar positions across diverse industries, with unemployment standing at a low 3.1%. As of March 2026, there are 1,733 employed residents, and the unemployment rate is 1.0% lower than the 4.1% rate recorded in Regional NSW, while participation in the labour force is close to the Regional NSW average of 60.6%. Census figures indicate that a moderate 21.8% of employed residents worked from home, though this may have been influenced by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

The primary sectors employing local residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The region exhibits a high level of specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, which employs 6.4 times the regional proportion of workers. Conversely, health care & social assistance has a smaller footprint, accounting for 11.5% of employment compared to 16.9% across the region. A comparison of the Census working population against the resident population suggests that local employment opportunities are limited.

An analysis of SALM and ABS statistics by AreaSearch shows that in the year ending March 2026, the local workforce shrank by 1.2% and employment fell by 1.8%, leading to a 0.6 percentage point increase in unemployment. In comparison, Regional NSW saw employment decline by 0.9%, the labour force contract by 0.4%, and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points. Future demand trends in Grenfell can be interpreted through national employment projections released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25. These five and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce distribution to project growth. Nationwide employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though rates vary by sector. Applying these trends to the local industry mix indicates that Grenfell's employment could grow by 5.0% over five years and 11.3% over ten years, representing a basic weighted extrapolation that does not incorporate local population forecasts.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to financial year 2023 ATO statistics compiled by AreaSearch, taxpayer incomes in the Grenfell SA2 sit below the national average. The median income for taxpayers in the area is $43,050, and the average income is $47,517, compared to Regional NSW averages of $52,390 and $65,215. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index increase of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for March 2026 are approximately $47,493 for the median and $52,421 for the average. Census records place household, family, and individual incomes in Grenfell between the 4th and 9th percentiles nationally. The largest income group is the $800 - 1,499 bracket, containing 28.7% of residents (1,018 people), which differs from the regional pattern where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket is largest at 29.9%. Although housing costs are low, leaving residents with 90.9% of their income, total disposable income ranks in the 10th percentile nationally.

Grenfell is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The housing profile in Grenfell at the time of the latest Census consisted of 93.7% houses and 6.3% other dwelling types like apartments, semi-detached properties, and alternative residences, compared to Regional NSW where houses made up 82.6% and other dwellings accounted for 17.4%. Home ownership in Grenfell was high at 55.0%, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (25.9%) or rented (19.1%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $953 was lower than the Regional NSW average of $1,733, and the median weekly rent of $198 was lower than the regional average of $330. Compared nationally, Grenfell's mortgage costs are below the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are below the national average of $375.

Grenfell features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up 64.3% of households in the area, consisting of couples with children at 20.5%, couples without children at 33.5%, and single parent households at 8.5%. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.7%, with single person households representing 34.1% and group houses making up 1.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Grenfell faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The community has lower rates of tertiary education, with 14.4% of residents holding university qualifications compared to the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents a challenge as well as a chance to introduce targeted education programs. Among university graduates, Bachelor degrees are held by 11.0%, postgraduate qualifications by 1.7%, and graduate diplomas by 1.7%. Vocational and technical training is common, with 39.2% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (29.1%).

Enrollment rates in education are high, with 25.5% of the population currently studying. This group is composed of 9.1% in primary school, 9.1% in high school, and 2.3% in tertiary study.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

There are 270 public transport stops in Grenfell, featuring a combination of train and bus services. These stops support 23 separate routes that provide 223 weekly passenger trips. Access to transport is high, with residents living an average of 178 meters from the nearest stop. Private cars remain the primary method of travel at 86%, while 10% of residents walk to work. The average number of vehicles per home is 1.6. Work-from-home arrangements were recorded for 21.8% of residents in the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-era conditions.

Routes average 31 trips per day, which represents approximately 0 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 closest stops relative to the centrepoint of the location.

Health performance in Grenfell is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health assessments by AreaSearch indicate notable challenges for Grenfell, based on mortality statistics and the prevalence of chronic illnesses across young and old age brackets. The proportion of residents with private health insurance is low at approximately 46% of the population (~1,629 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 12.8% and 9.2% of residents. Meanwhile, 59.4% of the population reported no chronic health issues, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Chronic disease rates are elevated among the working-age population. Residents aged 65 and over make up 31.2% of the local population (1,107 people), which is higher than the Regional NSW average of 23.4%. Senior health outcomes present some challenges, with national rankings aligning closely with those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Grenfell placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grenfell shows lower levels of cultural diversity, with citizens making up 91.3% of the population, 93.9% of residents born in Australia, and 98.4% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 69.5% of residents, compared to 55.9% in Regional NSW.

Looking at ancestral backgrounds, the three most common heritages in Grenfell are English at 35.0%, Australian at 34.6%, and Irish at 9.5%. There are also specific differences compared to broader regional averages: Scottish heritage is slightly higher at 8.4% of the population (compared to 8.0% regionally), while Australian Aboriginal heritage stands at 3.3% (compared to 4.6% regionally).

Grenfell ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age of 52 in Grenfell is higher than the Regional NSW average of 43 and the national average of 38. The 65 - 74 age group is larger locally at 15.9% compared to Regional NSW, while 25 - 34 year-olds are smaller at 8.1%. The local concentration of 65 - 74 year-olds is higher than the national figure of 9.4%. Since 2021, the 15 to 24 age bracket has risen from 8.7% to 10.8% of the population, and the 75 to 84 bracket has grown from 9.8% to 11.2%, while the 45 to 54 cohort fell from 12.1% to 11.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 point to shifts, with the 85+ group projected to grow by 52%, adding 74 people to reach 220. Residents aged 65 and over will account for 77% of population growth, highlighting the aging trend. Conversely, the 35 to 44 and 75 to 84 cohorts are expected to decrease in size.