Grenfell

Grenfell has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Grenfell's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 3,621 people. This figure represents an increase of 24 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,597 people. The growth from June 2024 to this period is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 3,584 and 42 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1.1 persons per square kilometer. Grenfell's growth rate of 0.7% since the 2021 census exceeded its SA3 area's growth rate of 0.4%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 86.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Grenfell's population is expected to decline by 81 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts like the 85 and over group are projected to grow, with an increase of 63 people anticipated in this period.

The level of residential development activity in Grenfell is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Grenfell has received approximately 7 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 35 homes. In Financial Year 26, so far one approval has been recorded. The population decline in recent years has resulted in adequate development activity relative to other areas, which could be beneficial for buyers. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $286,000, aligning with regional trends.

This financial year, $1.5 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to residential construction. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Grenfell shows approximately 69% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 22nd percentile of areas assessed nationally, suggesting limited buyer options while demand for established properties strengthens. This level reflects market maturity and may indicate possible development constraints. All new constructions in the area have been detached houses, preserving its low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 748 people, reflecting Grenfell's quiet, low-activity development environment. With a stable or declining population expected in the future, Grenfell should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Grenfell has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects that could affect this region: Inland Rail from Stockinbingal to Parkes, Inland Rail from Illabo to Stockinbingal, Olympic Highway Safety Improvements, and the Cowra Drought Resilience Plan. These are the key initiatives likely to have the most relevance.

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The employment landscape in Grenfell presents a mixed picture: unemployment remains low at 2.6%, yet recent job losses have affected its comparative national standing

Grenfell's workforce comprises diverse sectors with a balanced mix of white and blue-collar jobs, resulting in an unemployment rate of 2.6% as of September 2025. In this period, 1,746 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate 1.2% lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

However, workforce participation is significantly lower at 51.2%, compared to the Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Grenfell specializes in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 6.4 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance has a limited presence at 11.5% compared to the regional 16.9%. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force decreased by 3.7%, and employment declined by 4.1%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.4 percentage points.

In comparison, Rest of NSW experienced a 0.5% employment fall, a 0.1% labour force contraction, and a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment. Statewide, NSW's employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) as of 25-Nov-25, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Grenfell's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 5.0% over five years and 11.3% over ten years, though these estimates are illustrative and do not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The Grenfell SA2's median income among taxpayers was $43,603 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $52,244 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. By September 2025, current estimates project median income to be approximately $49,101 and average income at $58,832, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Grenfell all fall between the 4th and 9th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $800 - 1,499 dominated with 28.7% of residents (1,039 people), differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 29.9%. Housing costs are modest, with 90.9% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 10th percentile nationally.

Grenfell is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Grenfell's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.7% houses and 6.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 92.0% houses and 8.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grenfell stood at 55.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.9% and rented ones at 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $953, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,200. The median weekly rent figure was $198, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $220. Nationally, Grenfell's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grenfell features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households are the majority, making up 64.3% of all households in the region. They consist of couples with children at 20.5%, couples without children at 33.5%, and single parent families at 8.5%. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.7%, with lone person households at 34.1% and group households making up 1.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Grenfell faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.4%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (29.1%). Educational participation is high, with 25.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.1% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grenfell has 250 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 22 routes, which collectively provide 196 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically located 964 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 28 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 0 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Grenfell is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Grenfell faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 46% (~1,672 people) have private health cover, compared to 48.3% across Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.8%) and asthma (9.2%), while 59.4% report no medical ailments, compared to 62.4% in Rest of NSW.

Grenfell has 30.4% (1,100 people) aged 65 and over, higher than the 23.8% in Rest of NSW. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Grenfell placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grenfell had a cultural diversity level below average, with 91.3% being citizens, 93.9% born in Australia, and 98.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 69.5%. This figure is slightly lower than the Rest of NSW's 70.4%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (35.0%), Australian (34.6%), and Irish (9.5%). Notably, Scottish ancestry had a higher representation in Grenfell at 8.4% compared to the regional average of 7.2%, while Australian Aboriginal ancestry was lower at 3.3% versus 7.9%.

Grenfell ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Grenfell is 52 years, significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and also above the national norm of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the proportion of people aged 55-64 is notably higher in Grenfell at 16.1%, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 8.0%. Between 2021 and present, the population share of those aged 15-24 has grown from 8.7% to 10.6%, while the 75-84 age group increased from 9.8% to 10.9%. Conversely, the proportion of people aged 65-74 has declined from 16.3% to 15.4%. Population forecasts for Grenfell in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes, with the strongest projected growth in the 85+ age group at 45%, adding 67 residents to reach a total of 217. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 71% of population growth, emphasizing demographic aging trends. Conversely, both the 35-44 and 75-84 age groups are projected to have reduced numbers.