Grenfell
Statistical Area - sa2

Grenfell has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Grenfell's population is around 3,621 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 24 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,597 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,584 in June 2024 and an additional 42 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1.1 persons per square kilometer. Grenfell's growth of 0.7% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth of 0.4%, though growth remains modest. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 86.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projections indicate a decline in overall population over this period, with the area's population expected to decline by 81 persons by 2041. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, projected to grow by 63 people.

The level of residential development activity in Grenfell is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Grenfell has received approximately 7 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 35 homes. No approvals have been recorded so far in FY-26. The population decline in recent years has resulted in adequate development activity relative to other areas, which is beneficial for buyers. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost of $286,000, aligning with regional trends.

This financial year, Grenfell has recorded $1.5 million in commercial development approvals, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to residential development. Relative to the Rest of NSW, Grenfell shows around 69% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 22nd percentile nationally for areas assessed, suggesting limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties. This level is lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. All new constructions have been detached houses, preserving Grenfell's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 748 people, indicating a quiet, low-activity development environment. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Grenfell should experience reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers in the future.

Grenfell has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: Inland Rail from Stockinbingal to Parkes, Inland Rail from Illabo to Stockinbingal, Olympic Highway Safety Improvements, and Cowra Drought Resilience Plan.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Grenfell ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Grenfell's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with varied sector representation. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate was 2.3%.

In June 2025, 1,758 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate 1.3% lower than Rest of NSW's 3.7%. Workforce participation in Grenfell was 51.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment sectors for residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is particularly prominent, with an employment share 6.4 times the regional level.

However, health care & social assistance has limited presence at 11.5%, compared to the regional rate of 16.9%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Grenfell's labour force decreased by 2.5% and employment fell by 3.1%, leading to a 0.6 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.1%, labour force expand by 0.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across sectors. Applying these projections to Grenfell's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.0% over five years and 11.3% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Grenfell's median income among taxpayers was $43,603 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $52,244 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. By September 2025, current estimates project Grenfell's median income to be approximately $49,101 and average income around $58,832, based on a 12.61% growth in wages since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Grenfell all fall between the 5th and 9th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $800 - 1,499 dominates with 28.7% of residents (1,039 people), unlike the regional pattern where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates at 29.9%. Housing costs are modest, with residents retaining 90.9% of their income. However, total disposable income ranks at just the 11th percentile nationally.

Grenfell is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Grenfell, as per the latest Census evaluation, 93.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 6.3% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This is similar to Non-Metro NSW's figures of 92.0% houses and 8.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Grenfell stood at 55.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.9% and rented ones at 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $953, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,200. The median weekly rent in Grenfell was $198, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $220. Nationally, Grenfell's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $953 vs Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Grenfell features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.3% of all households, including 20.5% couples with children, 33.5% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 35.7%, with lone person households at 34.1% and group households making up 1.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Grenfell faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 14.4%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (29.1%). Educational participation is high at 25.5%, comprising primary education (9.1%), secondary education (9.1%), and tertiary education (2.3%).

Grenfell operates a robust network of 6 schools educating approximately 459 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 966) and balanced educational opportunities. There are 5 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups. School places per 100 residents (12.7) fall below the regional average (16.0), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Grenfell has 250 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 22 individual routes that collectively provide 196 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically located 964 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 28 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately zero weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Grenfell is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Grenfell faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 46% (~1,672 people) have private health cover, compared to 48.3% across Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.8%) and asthma (9.2%), while 59.4% report no medical ailments, compared to 62.4% in Rest of NSW.

Residents aged 65 and over comprise 30.4% (1,100 people), higher than the 23.8% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Grenfell placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Grenfell's cultural diversity was below average, with 91.3% of its population being citizens, 93.9% born in Australia, and 98.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Grenfell, comprising 69.5% of people, compared to 70.4% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (35.0%), Australian (34.6%), and Irish (9.5%).

Notably, Scottish representation was higher at 8.4%, compared to the regional average of 7.2%. Additionally, Australian Aboriginal representation was lower at 3.3%, while the regional average was 7.9%.

Grenfell ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Grenfell is 52 years, significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and well above the national norm of 38. The 55-64 age cohort is notably over-represented in Grenfell at 16.1%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 8.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 8.7% to 10.6% of the population, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 9.8% to 10.9%. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort has declined from 16.3% to 15.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Grenfell. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 45%, adding 67 residents to reach 217. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 71% of population growth, underscoring trends towards demographic aging. Conversely, both the 35-44 and 75-84 age groups are projected to have reduced numbers.