Canowindra

An assessment of population growth drivers in Canowindra reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Canowindra statistical area (Lv2) is around 2,588 people. This figure reflects an increase of 151 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,437. The recent resident population estimate by AreaSearch, based on the latest ERP data release from the ABS (June 2024), is 2,515, with an additional 30 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this increase. This results in a population density of approximately 2.9 persons per square kilometer. The Canowindra (SA2) experienced a growth rate of 6.2% between the 2021 Census and November 2025, exceeding both the SA4 region's growth rate of 3.1% and the non-metro area's growth during this period. Interstate migration contributed approximately 62.0% to the overall population gains in recent years.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Future population trends suggest that the Canowindra statistical area (Lv2) will experience an increase just below the median of national non-metropolitan areas. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the area is expected to gain approximately 235 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of about 7.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Canowindra according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Canowindra had approximately 6 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 31 dwellings. In FY26 so far, 1 approval has been recorded. Each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25 resulted in an average of 2.5 new residents per year, indicating strong demand supporting property values. The average construction cost value of new homes was $281,000, aligning with broader regional development trends.

This financial year saw $1.6 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Building activity comprised 86% detached dwellings and 14% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Canowindra's traditional low-density character focused on family homes.

The estimated population per dwelling approval was 422 people, indicating a quiet development environment. Population forecasts suggest Canowindra will gain around 195 residents by 2041, with building activity keeping pace with growth projections. However, increased competition among buyers is expected as the population grows.

Canowindra has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No infrastructure changes have been identified by AreaSearch that could impact this area. Key projects include Corridor Preservation For East Coast High Speed Rail, Paling Yards Wind Farm, Central-West Orana Renewable Energy Zone, and Central-West Orana Renewable Energy Zone Transmission Project.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.7%, Canowindra has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Canowindra has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 3.7%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, 1,255 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.1% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Canowindra is somewhat below standard at 52.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area has a strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 5.0 times the regional level. Conversely, construction is under-represented, with only 5.7% of Canowindra's workforce compared to Rest of NSW's 9.7%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as shown by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force decreased by 3.6% while employment declined by 4.7%, leading to a 1.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data from NSW as of 25-Nov shows employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Canowindra's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.4% over five years and 11.9% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Canowindra had a median taxpayer income of $43,799 and an average of $54,529. This is lower than the national average. The Rest of NSW had a median of $52,390 and an average of $65,215 during this period. By September 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%, estimated incomes would be approximately $47,680 (median) and $59,360 (average). Census data indicates Canowindra's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 7th and 13th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 27.7% of Canowindra residents earn between $400 - $799 (716 individuals), unlike broader area trends where 29.9% earn between $1,500 - $2,999. Despite modest housing costs allowing 88.8% income retention, total disposable income ranks at the 12th percentile nationally.

Canowindra is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with strong rates of outright home ownership

Canowindra's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 95.3% houses and 4.6% other dwellings. Home ownership stood at 48.5%, with 28.4% of dwellings mortgaged and 23.1% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,100, and the median weekly rent was $220. Nationally, Canowindra's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Canowindra features high concentrations of lone person households, with a median household size of 2.3 people

Family households constitute 65.7% of all households, including 23.1% couples with children, 31.1% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 34.3%, with lone person households at 30.6% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people.

Educational outcomes in Canowindra fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 41.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (30.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.2% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Canowindra shows that there are 147 active transport stops currently operating. These stops offer a variety of bus services. In total, 19 individual routes service these stops, providing a combined weekly passenger trip count of 169.

The accessibility to transport is rated as good, with residents on average being located 212 meters away from the nearest stop. On an average day, there are 24 trips across all routes, which equates to roughly one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Canowindra is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Canowindra faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low, at approximately 49%, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.2%) and mental health issues (9.1%). Notably, 60.4% of residents report no medical ailments, higher than the Rest of NSW's 0%. Canowindra has a high proportion of seniors, with 27.4% aged 65 and over (709 people). Health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Canowindra placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Canowindra, as per the census data from June 2016, showed low cultural diversity with 86.9% citizens, 92.8% born in Australia, and 96.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 70.2% of Canowindra's population, compared to None% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (33.5%), English (32.0%), and Irish (10.8%).

Notably, Maltese (0.7%) was overrepresented in Canowindra compared to None% regionally, as were French (0.5%) and Scottish (8.1%).

Canowindra hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Canowindra's median age is 48 years, which is significantly older than Rest of NSW's median age of 43 and Australia's median age of 38. The age profile shows that the 75-84 year-old group constitutes 10.9% of the population, while the 25-34 year-old group makes up only 8.3%. According to post-2021 Census data, the percentage of the population in the 75-84 age group has increased from 9.3% to 10.9%, while the 65-74 age group has decreased from 14.7% to 12.7% and the 45-54 age group has dropped from 12.3% to 10.8%. Demographic modeling suggests that Canowindra's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 85+ age cohort projected to expand substantially, increasing by 99 people (101%) from 98 to 198. Senior residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 68% of population growth. Meanwhile, both the 5-14 and 15-24 age groups are projected to decrease in numbers.