Canowindra

An assessment of population growth drivers in Canowindra reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Canowindra's population is estimated at around 2,494. This reflects an increase of 57 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,437. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 2,453 residents following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and additional validation of 30 new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2.8 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Canowindra has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.5%, outpacing its SA4 region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an increase just below the median of national non-metropolitan areas, with Canowindra expected to increase by 234 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 11.6% over these 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Canowindra according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Canowindra shows approximately 5 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 29 homes. As of FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. Each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25 resulted in an average of 2.6 new residents per year, indicating healthy demand for housing. New homes are being constructed at an average cost of $281,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms.

In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $663,000, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Building activity consists predominantly of detached dwellings (83.0%) and townhouses or apartments (17.0%), maintaining Canowindra's traditional low density character.

With an estimated 634 people per dwelling approval, the area has a quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Canowindra will gain approximately 288 residents by 2041, potentially leading to housing supply struggles at current development rates and heightened buyer competition supporting price increases.

Canowindra has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 40thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes are anticipated in this area. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impactful. Notable initiatives include Corridor Preservation For East Coast High Speed Rail, Paling Yards Wind Farm, Central-West Orana Renewable Energy Zone, and Central-West Orana REZ Transmission Project.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.2%, Canowindra has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Canowindra has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 3.2%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025, 1,274 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.5% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation in Canowindra is somewhat below standard at 52.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area shows strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share 5.0 times the regional level. Conversely, construction is under-represented at 5.7% of Canowindra's workforce compared to Rest of NSW's 9.7%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labour force decreased by 2.4% while employment declined by 3.8%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.1% and labour force growth of 0.3%, with a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Canowindra. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Canowindra's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.4% over five years and 11.9% over ten years, although this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Canowindra's median income among taxpayers is $43,793. The average income in Canowindra during this period was $54,522. This is lower than the national average. In comparison, Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Canowindra's median income would be approximately $49,315 as of September 2025. The average income estimate by this date is around $61,397. Census data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Canowindra all fall between the 7th and 13th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 27.7% of individuals in Canowindra earn between $400 - $799, while in the broader area, 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 88.8% income retention, total disposable income ranks at just the 12th percentile nationally.

Canowindra is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Canowindra's housing structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.3% houses and 4.6% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In contrast, Non-Metro NSW had no houses or other dwellings recorded at the time of the Census. Home ownership in Canowindra stood at 48.5%, with mortgaged properties at 28.4% and rented dwellings at 23.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,100, aligning with Non-Metro NSW's average, while the median weekly rent was $220. Nationally, Canowindra's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Canowindra features high concentrations of lone person households, with a median household size of 2.3 people

Family households account for 65.7% of all households, including 23.1% couples with children, 31.1% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 34.3%, with lone person households at 30.6% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people.

Educational outcomes in Canowindra fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.0%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificates at 30.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 11.2% in primary, 9.2% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education. Canowindra's three schools have a combined enrollment of 515 students, serving typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 977) with balanced educational opportunities. There are two primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups, with 20.6 school places per 100 residents, indicating strong educational infrastructure supporting both local and surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Canowindra shows that there are currently 146 active transport stops operating within the town. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 19 individual routes providing service. Collectively, these routes offer 172 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 212 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are about 24 trips per day across all routes, which equates to roughly one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Canowindra is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Health challenges are prominent in Canowindra, with various health conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 49% (~1,210 individuals) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

Common medical issues include arthritis (affecting 12.2%) and mental health concerns (9.1%). Notably, 60.4% report no medical ailments, contrasting with 0% in Rest of NSW. The area has a senior population of 27.4% (683 people), with seniors performing well in health metrics despite presenting certain challenges.

The latest Census data sees Canowindra placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Canowindra, found to be below average in cultural diversity, had 86.9% of its population as citizens, with 92.8% born in Australia and 96.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 70.2% of Canowindra's population, compared to None% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (33.5%), English (32.0%), and Irish (10.8%).

Notably, Maltese were overrepresented at 0.7%, French at 0.5%, and Scottish at 8.1%, compared to None% regionally for each group.

Canowindra hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Canowindra's median age is 48 years, which is notably higher than Rest of NSW's 43 and significantly exceeds the Australian median of 38. The age profile indicates that those aged 55-64 are particularly prevalent at 15.6%, while the 25-34 age group is smaller at 8.3% compared to Rest of NSW. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 9.3% to 10.9%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has decreased from 14.7% to 12.7%, and the 45 to 54 age group has dropped from 12.3% to 10.8%. Demographic modeling suggests Canowindra's age profile will significantly shift by 2041, with the 85+ age cohort projected to expand substantially by 103 people (109%), from 94 to 198. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 61% of population growth, emphasizing demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, both the 15 to 24 and 5 to 14 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.