Point Nepean
Statistical Area - sa2

Point Nepean lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Point Nepean's population is approximately 20,363 as of Aug 2025. This represents an increase of 552 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 19,811. The change was inferred from ABS estimates of 20,258 in June 2024 and an additional 29 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 303 persons per square kilometer. Point Nepean's growth rate of 2.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area average of 2.3%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation for areas not covered by the ABS data. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Point Nepean is projected to increase by 3,415 persons based on latest population numbers, representing a total increase of 16.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Point Nepean among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Point Nepean has seen approximately 170 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, totalling 851 approvals between Financial Year 2021 and Financial Year 2025, with 21 approvals so far in Financial Year 2026. On average, about 1.3 new residents have arrived per new home each year over the past five financial years. This indicates a balance between supply and demand, contributing to stable market dynamics.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $1,271,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In Financial Year 2026, there have been $47.9 million in commercial approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Point Nepean shows 65.0% higher new home approvals per person, offering greater choice for buyers. New building activity comprises approximately 96.0% detached dwellings and 4.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

Point Nepean reflects a low density area, with around 140 people per approval. Looking ahead, Point Nepean is expected to grow by 3,310 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Point Nepean has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to affect this region. Key initiatives include the 6 Napier Street Hotel Development, Rye Foreshore Promenade Redevelopment, 2135 Point Nepean Road, Rye, and Rye Pier Reconstruction.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Point Nepean has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Point Nepean has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being prominent. The unemployment rate was 3.7% in June 2025, which is 0.9% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.5%. As of June 2025, there were 9,166 residents employed. Workforce participation in Point Nepean is significantly lower at 49.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction is particularly specialized with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented at 11.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 14.2%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.5%, labour force by 4.5%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had an employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data from Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project a national expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Point Nepean's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Point Nepean had a median taxpayer income of $45,715 and an average of $78,671 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is among the highest in Australia, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $50,337 (median) and $86,625 (average) as of March 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Point Nepean, between the 31st and 39th percentiles. Distribution data shows 27.8% of the population (5,660 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 32.8% in the same category. After housing, 85.7% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Point Nepean is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Point Nepean's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 96.3% houses and 3.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Point Nepean was 50.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.0% and rented ones at 19.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,888, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,989. Median weekly rent in Point Nepean was $376, similar to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Point Nepean's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,888 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were slightly higher at $376.

Point Nepean features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.9 percent of all households, including 21.6 percent couples with children, 36.8 percent couples without children, and 8.8 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.1 percent, with lone person households at 30.0 percent and group households comprising 2.1 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Point Nepean performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

In Point Nepean, 27.7% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 19.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 38.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (13.7%) and certificates (24.7%). A significant 24.9% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, with 9.0% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 3.3% in tertiary education.

The four schools in Point Nepean have a combined enrollment of 961 students and demonstrate typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1022), offering balanced educational opportunities. All four schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas. School capacity is limited locally, with 4.7 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.3, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Point Nepean has 198 active public transport stops. These are used by buses only. There are three routes serving these stops, which together provide 690 weekly passenger trips.

The average distance from a resident's location to the nearest stop is 394 meters. On average, there are 98 bus trips per day across all routes, equating to around three weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Point Nepean is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Point Nepean faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 59% of the total population (12,095 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.9 and 7.9% of residents respectively. Sixty-three point five percent declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to sixty-three point nine percent across Greater Melbourne. Thirty-six point five percent of residents are aged 65 and over (7,440 people), which is higher than the twenty-nine point nine percent in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Point Nepean ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Point Nepean had a lower cultural diversity, with 88.3% being Australian citizens, 84.2% born in Australia, and 93.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 46.7%. Judaism was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to 0.2% regionally.

Top ancestry groups were English (32.2%), Australian (26.6%), and Irish (10.8%). Scottish representation was notably higher at 9.4% vs regional 9.0%, Italian at 4.4% vs 3.4%, and Greek at 1.6% vs 1.2%.

Point Nepean ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Point Nepean's median age is 54 years, which is significantly older than Greater Melbourne's median age of 37 and higher than the Australian median age of 38. The age profile shows that the 65-74 year-old group makes up 19.2% of the population, while the 25-34 year-old group comprises only 6.9%. This concentration of people aged 65-74 is well above the national average of 9.4%. According to data from the post-2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has grown from 10.4% to 13.7%, while the 45-54 year-old cohort has declined from 13.0% to 11.6%. Additionally, the 5-14 year-old group has decreased from 9.6% to 8.2%. Demographic modeling suggests that Point Nepean's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to increase considerably, with an expected growth of 1,612 people (58%), from 2,781 to 4,394. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 90% of population growth, highlighting the trend of demographic aging. Meanwhile, both the 15-24 and 0-4 age groups are expected to decrease in number.