Point Nepean

Population growth drivers in Point Nepean are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Point Nepean's population is approximately 20,472 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 661 people, a 3.3% rise from the 2021 Census which reported a population of 19,811. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,259 in June 2024 and an additional 24 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 304 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Point Nepean has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.5%, outperforming the SA3 area. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Point Nepean is projected to have an above median population growth, expanding by 3,415 persons to a total of 23,887, reflecting a 15.6% increase over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Point Nepean among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Point Nepean has seen approximately 170 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 851 homes. As of FY26, 75 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25 accommodates around 1.3 new residents per year. This indicates a balanced supply and demand in the area, maintaining stable market conditions while developers target the premium segment with higher-end properties valued at an average of $869,000.

In this financial year, $47.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Point Nepean has 65.0% more building activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers. The new building activity comprises 96.0% detached houses and 4.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes. With around 140 people per dwelling approval, Point Nepean exhibits characteristics of a low density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Point Nepean is expected to grow by 3,201 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, providing favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond projections.

Point Nepean has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Four projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area: 6 Napier Street Hotel Development, 2135 Point Nepean Road, Rye, Rye Foreshore Promenade Redevelopment, and Rye Pier Reconstruction.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Point Nepean maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Point Nepean has a skilled workforce with a notable construction sector, an unemployment rate of 3.3%, and estimated employment growth of 2.7% in the past year. As of September 2025, 9,266 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.3% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is lower at 53.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%.

According to Census responses, 30.7% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in construction (strongly specialized), health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction employs 1.8 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance employs 11.4%, below Greater Melbourne's 14.2%. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 2.7% while labour force grew by 2.7%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 3.3%.

In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment increase to 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Point Nepean's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Point Nepean SA2 had one of Australia's highest income levels based on latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Its median taxpayer income was $48,335 and average income stood at $80,724, compared to Greater Melbourne's $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% would be approximately $52,323 (median) and $87,384 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Point Nepean ranked modestly, between the 31st and 38th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The largest income segment consisted of 27.8% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (5,691 residents), similar to broader metropolitan trends at 32.8%. After housing expenses, 85.7% of income remained for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Point Nepean is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Point Nepean's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.3% houses and 3.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Point Nepean stood at 50.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.0% and rented ones at 19.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,888, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Point Nepean was $376, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Point Nepean's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,888 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $376 compared to the national figure of $375.

Point Nepean features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.9 percent of all households, including 21.6 percent couples with children, 36.8 percent couples without children, and 8.8 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.1 percent, with lone person households at 30.0 percent and group households comprising 2.1 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Point Nepean performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

In Point Nepean trail region, 27.7% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. This indicates potential for educational development. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 19.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas at 13.7% and certificates at 24.7%.

A significant 24.9% of the population is actively engaged in formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 3.3% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Point Nepean has 198 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with three individual routes in total providing 438 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents located an average of 394 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward using private vehicles, which remain the dominant mode of transportation at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 30.7% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 62 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately two weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

The level of general health in Point Nepean is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Point Nepean shows superior health outcomes as per AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and elderly cohorts exhibit low prevalence of common health issues.

Private health cover is exceptionally high at nearly 60% (12,180 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (7.9%). About 63.5% report no medical ailments, lower than Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Health outcomes among working-age residents are generally average. The area has a higher proportion of seniors at 38.0% (7,779 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Senior health outcomes rank notably high nationally.

Point Nepean ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Point Nepean had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 88.3% of its population being citizens, 84.2% born in Australia, and 93.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Point Nepean, comprising 46.7% of its population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, with 0.3% versus 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.2%), Australian (26.6%), and Irish (10.8%), all higher than the regional averages of 20.1%, 18.4%, respectively. Other ethnic groups showed notable divergences: Scottish was overrepresented at 9.4% versus 5.6%, Italian was slightly lower at 4.4% versus 5.2%, and Greek was underrepresented at 1.6% versus 2.7%.

Point Nepean ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Point Nepean's median age is 54 years, which is older than Greater Melbourne's median age of 37 years and higher than the Australian median of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 19.4% of the population, while those aged 25-34 make up only 6.6%. This concentration of those aged 65-74 is well above the national average of 9.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, the age group of 75 to 84 has grown from 10.4% to 14.6%, while the age groups of 45 to 54 and 5 to 14 have declined to 11.1% and 7.9%, respectively. Demographic modeling suggests that Point Nepean's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 75 to 84 age cohort projected to grow steadily from 2,997 to 4,394 people, an increase of 1,396 people (47%). Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 88% of population growth. Meanwhile, both the 15 to 24 age group and the 0 to 4 age group are expected to decrease in number.