Point Nepean

Population growth drivers in Point Nepean are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Point Nepean's population was approximately 20,363 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 552 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 19,811. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 20,258 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses post-Census. The population density was 303 persons per square kilometer. Point Nepean's growth exceeded the SA3 area average of 2.3%, indicating it as a leader in regional growth. Overseas migration primarily drove this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future demographic trends project above median growth, with Point Nepean expected to increase by 3,415 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 16.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Point Nepean among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Point Nepean has seen approximately 170 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling 851 homes. As of FY26, 44 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.3 new residents arrive per new home annually between FY21 and FY25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. The average development value is $869,000, reflecting a focus on premium properties.

In FY26, commercial approvals have reached $47.9 million, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Point Nepean records 65.0% more new home approvals per person, offering greater choice for buyers. The area maintains its traditional low-density character with 96.0% standalone homes and 4.0% medium and high-density housing. With around 140 people per approval, it reflects a low density area.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Point Nepean is projected to add 3,310 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Point Nepean has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 38thth percentile nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: the 6 Napier Street Hotel Development, at 2135 Point Nepean Road, Rye; the Rye Foreshore Promenade Redevelopment; and the Rye Pier Reconstruction.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Point Nepean has been broadly consistent with national averages

Point Nepean has a skilled workforce with a notable construction sector. Its unemployment rate is 3.3%.

Over the past year, estimated employment growth was 2.7%. As of September 2025, 9,266 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.3% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Point Nepean lags at 49.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction is particularly specialized with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented at 11.4% of Point Nepean's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 14.2%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.7%, keeping the unemployment rate stable at 3.3%. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% with a slight rise in unemployment to 4.7%. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Point Nepean's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Point Nepean SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $45,715 and an average income of $78,671 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This was one of the highest in Australia, compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since the financial year 2022, current estimates suggest approximately $51,274 (median) and $88,237 (average) as of September 2025. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes all rank modestly in Point Nepean, between the 31st and 38th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 27.8% of the population (5,660 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, which is consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 32.8% in the same category. After housing costs, 85.7% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Point Nepean is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Point Nepean's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.3% houses and 3.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Point Nepean was at 50.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.0% and rented ones at 19.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,888, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,989. The median weekly rent figure was $376, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Point Nepean's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,888, while rents were slightly higher at $376.

Point Nepean features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.9% of all households, including 21.6% couples with children, 36.8% couples without children, and 8.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.1%, with lone person households at 30.0% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Point Nepean performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Point Nepean trail has 27.7% of residents aged 15 and above holding university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. This indicates a gap that suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 19.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.7%) and certificates (24.7%).

A significant 24.9% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 9.0% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 3.3% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Point Nepean has 198 active public transport stops. These are served by buses along three different routes. Each week, these routes facilitate a total of 691 passenger trips.

The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 394 meters. On average, there are 98 trips per day across all routes, which equates to roughly three weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Point Nepean is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Point Nepean faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 59% of the total population (12,095 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.9 and 7.9% of residents respectively. 63.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.9% across Greater Melbourne. 36.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (7,440 people), which is higher than the 29.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Point Nepean ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Point Nepean had a cultural diversity score below average, with 88.3% of its population being citizens, 84.2% born in Australia, and 93.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Point Nepean, comprising 46.7% of its population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, with 0.3% versus 0.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.2%), Australian (26.6%), and Irish (10.8%). Significant differences existed in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Scottish at 9.4% compared to 9.0%, Italian at 4.4% versus 3.4%, and Greek at 1.6% against 1.2%.

Point Nepean ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Point Nepean's median age is 54 years, which is significantly older than Greater Melbourne's median age of 37 years and the Australian median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that the 65-74 year-old group makes up 19.2% of the population, compared to 10.4% nationally and a smaller proportion of 25-34 year-olds at 6.9%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 10.4% to 13.7%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 11.6% and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 9.6% to 8.2%. Demographic modeling suggests that Point Nepean's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the 75 to 84 age cohort projected to expand by 1,612 people (58%) from 2,781 to 4,394. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 90% of population growth, reflecting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, both the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age groups are projected to decrease in number.