Capel Sound

Population growth drivers in Capel Sound are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Capel Sound statistical area (Lv2) is around 5,589, reflecting a 6.5% increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 5,246. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 5,229 in Jun 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 44 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,212 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Capel Sound (SA2) experienced a population growth of 6.5% since the 2021 census, exceeding the SA3 area's 3.7% and the SA4 region's growth rate. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation method for areas not covered by ABS data.

Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the Capel Sound (SA2) is forecasted to increase by 1,234 persons, reflecting a total increase of 16.7% over the 17 years based on aggregated SA2-level projections.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Capel Sound when compared nationally

Capel Sound has averaged approximately 43 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 215 homes. As of FY-26, 28 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.8 new residents per year have arrived with each new home between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of new properties is $506,000, suggesting developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $20.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Capel Sound records 59.0% more construction activity per person. New building activity shows 58.0% detached dwellings and 42.0% medium and high-density housing, offering choices across price ranges from spacious family homes to compact options.

The location has approximately 146 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections estimate Capel Sound will add 932 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Capel Sound has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 28thth percentile nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence performance. AreaSearch identified 0 relevant projects. Key initiatives are Corridor Preservation For Melbourne Outer Metropolitan Ring Road/E6, Level Crossing Removal Project, Additional VLocity Trains, and Victorian Desalination Plant Expansion. Below details those deemed most impactful.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Capel Sound lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Capel Sound's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 6.0% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.0%.

As of September 2025, 1,870 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation lags significantly at 37.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area specializes in health care & social assistance with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level, while professional & technical has limited presence at 4.7% compared to the regional 10.1%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.0% and labour force by 2.5%, reducing unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. In Greater Melbourne, employment grew by 3.0%, labour force expanded by 3.3%, but unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Capel Sound's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Capel Sound has an income below the national average. The median income is $39,113 and the average income stands at $52,965. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Capel Sound would be approximately $42,340 (median) and $57,335 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Capel Sound all fall between the 2nd and 7th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that the predominant cohort spans 33.7% of locals (1,883 people) in the $400 - $799 category, differing from the region where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 32.8%. The concentration of 42.4% in sub-$800 weekly brackets highlights economic challenges facing a significant portion of the community. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 78.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Capel Sound is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Capel Sound's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 71.0% houses and 28.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Capel Sound was 43.7%, similar to Melbourne metro's figure, with the rest being mortgaged (23.6%) or rented (32.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Capel Sound was $1,603, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,989. Weekly rent median was $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Capel Sound's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Capel Sound features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 54.3% of all households, including 13.4% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 45.7%, with lone person households at 43.1% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 1.9 people, smaller than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Capel Sound fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.4%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.8%) and certificates (26.9%). A total of 22.7% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, comprising 9.1% in primary, 6.3% in secondary, and 1.5% in tertiary education.

A substantial 22.7% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Capel Sound indicates that there are currently 38 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with three individual routes providing service. Collectively, these routes facilitate 540 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 244 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 77 trips per day across all routes, which equates to around 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Capel Sound is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Capel Sound faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low at approximately 48%, covering around 2674 people, compared to 57.8% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (14.1%) and mental health issues (10.5%), while 51.2% report no medical ailments, lower than the 63.9% in Greater Melbourne.

Capel Sound has 45.0%, or around 2515 people aged 65 and over, higher than Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Health outcomes among seniors are challenging, aligning with the general population's health profile.

Capel Sound ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Capel Sound had a below average cultural diversity level, with 80.8% of its population born in Australia, 88.3% being citizens, and 92.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, making up 50.3% of Capel Sound's population. Judaism, however, was overrepresented, comprising 0.1%, compared to 0.2% in Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups were English (34.2%), Australian (29.2%), and Scottish (8.7%). Notably, Italian (4.4%) and Maltese (0.6%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 3.4% and 0.4%, respectively, while Macedonian showed a slight increase from 0.1% regionally to 0.2%.

Capel Sound ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Capel Sound's median age is 59, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Capel Sound has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (16.8%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.5%). This concentration of 75-84 year-olds is well above the national figure of 6.0%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the proportion of Capel Sound's population in the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 15.6% to 16.8%, while the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 8.9% to 7.5%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Capel Sound's age structure. The number of residents aged 85 and above is projected to grow by 88%, reaching 1,336 from 709. This growth is largely driven by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 93% of the projected growth. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age groups are projected to decrease in number.