Capel Sound

Population growth drivers in Capel Sound are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Capel Sound is around 5,220 people. This figure reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census count of 5,246 people, representing a drop of 26 individuals (0.5%). AreaSearch validated this estimate using resident population data from June 2024 ABS ERP release and additional 44 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,132 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Capel Sound has shown resilient growth patterns with an average annual growth rate of 1.0%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch projections for Capel Sound are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia figures released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future demographic trends suggest an above median population growth in national statistical areas. By 2041, Capel Sound is projected to increase by 1,178 persons, reflecting a total increase of 23.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Capel Sound recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Capel Sound averaged approximately 41 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 208 homes. As of FY-26, 21 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.8 new residents per year arrived with each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of these properties was $506,000. In FY-26, $27.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Capel Sound has 54.0% more new home approvals per person, offering buyers ample choice despite a recent slowdown in building activity. The dwelling mix comprises 57.0% detached dwellings and 43.0% medium and high-density housing, providing a range of affordable alternatives.

The population density is approximately 195 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Capel Sound to grow by 1,245 residents by 2041, with existing development levels aligning with future requirements and maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Capel Sound has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No factors influence a region's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. As per AreaSearch, zero projects have been pinpointed as potentially impacting this area. Notable projects encompass Corridor Preservation For Melbourne Outer Metropolitan Ring Road/E6, Level Crossing Removal Project, Additional VLocity Trains, and Telstra InfraCo Intercity Fibre Network, with the following list outlining those most pertinent.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Capel Sound faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Capel Sound's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate was 6.7% as of an unspecified past year, with estimated employment growth of 3.1%.

As of June 2025, there were 1,855 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, which is 2.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation was lower at 37.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance had a particularly strong presence with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services had limited presence at 4.7%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area showed limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Over a 12-month period ending in June 2025, employment increased by 3.1% while labour force grew by 4.5%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a smaller increase in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in Sep-22, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Capel Sound's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by the same rates over these periods.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Capel Sound's median income among taxpayers is $39,113. The average income in Capel Sound was $52,965 during the same period. These figures are lower than national averages. Greater Melbourne, by comparison, had a median income of $54,892 and an average of $73,761 for the same year. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates suggest Capel Sound's median income would be approximately $43,869 by September 2025, with an average of around $59,406. Census data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Capel Sound fall between the 2nd and 7th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 33.7% of residents (1,759 people) earn between $400 - 799 weekly, differing from the regional norm where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket is predominant at 32.8%. Lower income households are prevalent in Capel Sound, with 42.4% earning below $800 weekly, suggesting affordability pressures for many residents. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 78.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Capel Sound is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Capel Sound's dwellings, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 71.0% houses and 28.9% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metro's dwelling composition of 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Capel Sound stood at 43.7%, mirroring Melbourne metro's figure, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (23.6%) or rented (32.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Capel Sound was $1,603, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,989. The median weekly rent in Capel Sound was recorded at $350, compared to Melbourne metro's figure of $380. Nationally, Capel Sound's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Capel Sound features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 54.3% of all households, including 13.4% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 45.7%, with lone person households at 43.1% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 1.9 people, which is smaller than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Capel Sound fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.4%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.8%) and certificates (26.9%). Currently, 22.7% of the population is engaged in formal education, comprising 9.1% in primary, 6.3% in secondary, and 1.5% in tertiary education.

Eastbourne Primary School serves Capel Sound with an enrollment of 263 students as of now. The school focuses on primary education only, with nearby areas offering secondary options. Local school capacity is limited (5.0 places per 100 residents vs the regional average of 14.3), leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Capel Sound has 38 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that together facilitate 848 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average being located 240 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 121 trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Capel Sound is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Capel Sound faces significant health challenges across various age groups. The prevalence of certain conditions impacts both younger and older residents. Private health cover stands at approximately 48%, covering around 2,497 people, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's 57.9% and the national average of 55.3%.

Arthritis and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions in Capel Sound, affecting 14.1% and 10.5% of residents respectively. However, 51.2% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 45%, with around 2,349 people falling into this age category, compared to Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

Capel Sound ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Capel Sound's population shows low cultural diversity, with 80.8% born in Australia, 88.3% being citizens, and 92.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 50.3%. Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 0.1% of Capel Sound's population.

The top three ancestry groups are English (34.2%), Australian (29.2%), and Scottish (8.7%). Italian (4.4%), Maltese (0.6%), and Macedonian (0.2%) ethnicities are notably overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Capel Sound ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Capel Sound's median age is 59, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Capel Sound has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (16.8%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.5%). This concentration of 75-84 year-olds is notably above the national figure of 6.0%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 15.6% to 16.8%, while the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 8.9% to 7.5%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate substantial shifts in Capel Sound's age structure. Notably, the 85+ group is projected to grow by 100% (665 people), reaching 1,328 from 662. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising 88% of projected growth. Conversely, both the 0 to 4 and 25 to 34 age groups are projected to decrease in number.