Tootgarook

Population growth drivers in Tootgarook are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population updates for the broader area around Tootgarook, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census in 2021, the estimated population of the suburb of Tootgarook is around 3,252 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 74 people (2.3%) compared to the population reported in the 2021 Census, which was 3,178 people. The current estimated resident population (ERP) of Tootgarook is 3,238, as calculated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS on June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This equates to a density ratio of approximately 931 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, from 2015 to 2025, Tootgarook has shown resilient growth patterns with an average annual growth rate of around 1.1%, outperforming the surrounding Statistical Area Level 3 (SA3) area. The primary driver of population growth in recent periods was overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes the Victorian State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting them using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from Local Government Area (LGA) to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, the suburb is expected to experience population growth in line with the median of statistical areas nationally, with an anticipated increase of around 353 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections. This reflects a total increase of approximately 9.8% over the 17-year period from 2024 to 2041.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Tootgarook recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis shows Tootgarook had approximately 3 residential properties approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 18 homes were approved, with 1 more in FY-26.

On average, 4.4 people moved to the area per dwelling built over these years. This high demand outpaces supply, potentially driving up prices and increasing buyer competition. Developers focus on premium market, with new homes averaging $1,271,000. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tootgarook has significantly less development activity (78.0% below regional average per person). Limited new supply generally supports stronger demand for established dwellings.

Recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, maintaining the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. As of now, there are estimated 356 people in the area per dwelling approval. Population forecasts indicate Tootgarook will gain 319 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Tootgarook has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No factors affect a region's performance more than modifications to local infrastructure, significant projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects include Rye Pier Reconstruction, Corridor Preservation For Melbourne Outer Metropolitan Ring Road/E6, Level Crossing Removal Project, and Additional VLocity Trains, with the following list outlining those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Tootgarook recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Tootgarook's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. The construction sector stands out with a significant representation, an unemployment rate of 6.1%, and estimated employment growth of 2.8% over the past year, as per AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of June 2025, 1,432 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Tootgarook lags at 53.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction is particularly strong with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 5.5% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 2.8%, while the labour force grew by 4.5%, leading to a 1.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne where employment rose by 3.5%, labour force grew by 4.0%, and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in Sep-22, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tootgarook's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows median income in Tootgarook was $39,932 and average income was $68,719. This compares to Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $44,788 (median) and $77,075 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16%. The 2021 Census reports household, family, and personal incomes in Tootgarook fell between the 19th and 20th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 31.2% of locals (1,014 people) earned between $1,500 - $2,999 annually, similar to metropolitan Melbourne at 32.8%. Housing affordability is severe, with only 81.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 17th percentile nationally.

Tootgarook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Tootgarook, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.0% houses and 3.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tootgarook stood at 37.5%, with the rest being mortgaged (33.3%) or rented (29.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,788, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,989. The median weekly rent was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Tootgarook's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Tootgarook features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.9% of all households, including 23.4% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 33.1%, with lone person households at 30.7% and group households making up 2.5%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Tootgarook fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is significantly lower than the Greater Melbourne average, at 17.1% compared to 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common among those with higher education qualifications, at 12.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.7% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (31.4%). Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, broken down into primary (10.0%), secondary (8.0%), and tertiary (3.0%) levels.

Tootgarook Primary School serves the local community, with an enrollment of 146 students as of a recent report. The school operates under typical Australian schooling conditions, with an ICSEA score of 965, indicating balanced educational opportunities. It caters exclusively to primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas. Local school capacity is limited, with only 4.5 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.3, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Tootgarook shows 28 active public transport stops operating. These are a mix of bus stops serviced by two routes. The total weekly passenger trips provided is 504.

Transport accessibility is rated good with residents located an average of 398 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 72 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tootgarook is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tootgarook faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is high at approximately 54% of the total population (~1,755 people), compared to 57.9% across Greater Melbourne.

Mental health issues impact 10.0% of residents, while arthritis affects 9.5%. Approximately 63.3% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 63.9%. The area has 28.9% of residents aged 65 and over (939 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Tootgarook ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Tootgarook's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 84.8% of its population born in Australia, 90.6% being citizens, and 91.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Tootgarook, comprising 41.7% of people there. However, Judaism was notably overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to 0.2% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (30.9%), English (29.4%), and Irish (9.4%) were the top three represented groups in Tootgarook. Other ethnic groups showed notable divergences: Hungarian was overrepresented at 0.4%, Croatian at 1.0%, and Italian at 5.9%.

Tootgarook hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Tootgarook is 46 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and also above the Australian median of 38 years. The 65-74 age cohort makes up 14.5% of Tootgarook's population, compared to 9.4% nationally and 12.0% in Greater Melbourne. Conversely, the 25-34 age group constitutes only 10.1% of Tootgarook's population. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.2% to 11.3%, while the 5 to 14 cohort has decreased from 11.9% to 11.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate that the 75 to 84 age group will grow significantly, increasing by 202 people (55%) from 367 to 570. This growth is part of a broader aging population trend, with those aged 65 and above expected to comprise 90% of the projected growth. Conversely, the 15-24 and 0-4 age groups are predicted to experience population declines.