Rosebud - McCrae

Population growth drivers in Rosebud - McCrae are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Rosebud - McCrae's population is around 24,534 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,590 people (6.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,944 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,282 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 212 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,030 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Rosebud - McCrae's 6.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (3.7%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 68.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, an above-median population growth of statistical areas across the nation is projected, with the area expected to increase by 3,550 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 9.4% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Rosebud - McCrae when compared nationally

Rosebud - McCrae has averaged around 162 new dwelling approvals per year, totalling 814 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26110 approvals have been recorded. With an average of only 0.8 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is meeting or surpassing demand, providing greater buyer choice and supporting potential for population growth above projections, while new homes are being built at an average value of $355,000. Additionally, $93.2 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting robust local business investment.

Relative to Greater Melbourne, Rosebud - McCrae has slightly more development (36.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), balancing buyer choice with support for current property values, though development activity has moderated in recent periods. New building activity shows 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% townhouses or apartments, showing an expanding range of medium-density options creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 85.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The location has approximately 191 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Future projections show Rosebud - McCrae adding 2,297 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Rosebud - McCrae has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 1 single project has been identified by AreaSearch that is likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Rosedale Residential Development, Arthurs Seat Escarpment Management Plan, Greater Dromana Masterplan, and Mornington Peninsula Freeway Maintenance Program, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Rosebud - McCrae faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Rosebud - McCrae has a skilled workforce, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of 6.2%, and 2.9% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 9,667 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.4% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation lags significantly (50.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 19.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 2.9% alongside the labour force increasing by 2.0%, resulting in unemployment falling by 0.8 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne, where employment rose by 2.4%, the labour force grew by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Rosebud - McCrae. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Rosebud - McCrae's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Rosebud - McCrae SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $46,422 with the average level standing at $59,142. This is lower than average on a national basis and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $50,252 (median) and $64,021 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Rosebud - McCrae all fall between the 10th and 14th percentiles nationally. The data shows the largest segment comprises 27.8% earning $800 - 1,499 weekly (6,820 residents), diverging from the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 10th percentile.

Rosebud - McCrae is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Rosebud - McCrae, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 85.0% houses and 15.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Rosebud - McCrae was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 44.5%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (28.7%) or rented (26.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,733, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Rosebud - McCrae's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Rosebud - McCrae features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 62.7% of all households, comprising 19.3% couples with children, 30.3% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.3%, with lone person households at 34.8% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.1 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Rosebud - McCrae fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (17.8%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 12.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (28.3%).

A substantial 24.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 78 active transport stops operating within Rosebud - McCrae, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 3 individual routes, collectively providing 540 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 876 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 96%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling. Some 19.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 77 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Rosebud - McCrae is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Rosebud - McCrae faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~11,874 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 12.5 and 10.0% of residents, respectively, while 57.3% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 36.3% of residents aged 65 and over (8,903 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Rosebud - McCrae ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Rosebud - McCrae was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 82.8% of its population born in Australia, 89.0% being citizens, and 93.4% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Rosebud - McCrae is Christianity, which makes up 46.2% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.1% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Rosebud - McCrae are English, comprising 32.8% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 29.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Irish, comprising 8.9% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Scottish is notably overrepresented at 8.7% of Rosebud - McCrae (vs 5.6% regionally), Macedonian at 0.3% (vs 0.7%) and Italian at 4.1% (vs 5.2%).

Rosebud - McCrae ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

With a median age of 52, Rosebud - McCrae is materially older than the Greater Melbourne figure of 37 and significantly higher than the national norm of 38. The 75 - 84 age group shows strong representation at 14.1% compared to Greater Melbourne, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 7.7%. This 75 - 84 concentration is well above the national 6.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 11.9% to 14.1% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 9.4% to 7.7% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 9.8% to 8.7%. By 2041, Rosebud - McCrae is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 83% (1,258 people), reaching 2,775 from 1,516. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those 65+ comprising 85% of projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 cohorts.