Rosebud - McCrae
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Rosebud - McCrae are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Rosebud - McCrae's population is around 23,604 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 660 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 22,944 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,478 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 207 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 991 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Rosebud - McCrae's growth of 2.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth of 2.3%. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 68.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends, an above median population growth is projected for statistical areas across the nation. Rosebud - McCrae is expected to increase by 3,550 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, reflecting an increase of 13.7% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Rosebud - McCrae when compared nationally

Rosebud-McCrae averaged 162 new dwelling approvals annually. The ABS produces development approval data on a financial year basis. From FY-21 to FY-25814 dwellings were approved, with 23 more recorded in FY-26. On average, 0.8 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were added over the past five financial years.

This suggests supply meets or exceeds demand, offering greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth while new homes are built at an average construction cost of $506,000. In FY-26, $93.2 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Rosebud-McCrae has a 36.0% higher construction rate per person over the past five years, maintaining good buyer choice and supporting existing property values. However, recent construction activity has eased.

Recent developments consist of 57.0% standalone homes and 43.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options and creating diverse housing opportunities across price brackets. Rosebud-McCrae currently shows low density characteristics with around 191 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, the area is expected to grow by 3,227 residents. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Rosebud - McCrae has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region: Rosedale Residential Development, Greater Dromana Masterplan, Mornington Peninsula Freeway Maintenance Program, and Housing for the Peninsula (Amendment C219morn) are key projects, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market performance in Rosebud - McCrae lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Rosebud - McCrae's unemployment rate was 6.3% as of an unspecified past year. Employment growth in the area was estimated at 3.3% over the same period.

As of June 2025, there were 9,616 residents employed with an unemployment rate of 7.2%, which is 2.6 percentage points higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Rosebud - McCrae was 46.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction had a particularly strong presence with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services had limited representation with only 5.3% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities in Rosebud - McCrae appear limited locally, as indicated by a lower count of Census working population compared to resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 3.3%, while labour force grew by 4.6%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 1.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5%, labour force expand by 4.0%, and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points during the same period. State-level data from Sep-25 shows that Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Nationally, employment growth was 0.26%, and the unemployment rate was 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rosebud - McCrae's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Rosebud - McCrae had a median income among taxpayers of $43,530 in financial year 2022. The average income level stood at $58,945 during the same period. This is lower than the national average and compares to levels of $54,892 and $73,761 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $47,931 (median) and $64,904 (average) as of March 2025. From the 2021 Census, household incomes in Rosebud - McCrae fall between the 10th and 14th percentiles nationally. Family incomes also fall within this range. Personal incomes in Rosebud - McCrae are similarly positioned at the 10th to 14th percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows that 27.8% of residents earn $800 - $1,499 weekly, with a total of 6,561 individuals in this income bracket. This differs from the surrounding region where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Rosebud - McCrae, with only 82.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Rosebud - McCrae is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Rosebud - McCrae's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 85.0% houses and 15.0% other dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metro's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rosebud - McCrae stood at 44.5%, similar to Melbourne metro, with the rest being mortgaged (28.7%) or rented (26.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,989 and Australia's national figure of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Rosebud - McCrae was $350, lower than Melbourne metro's $380 and the Australian average of $375.

Rosebud - McCrae features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.7% of all households, including 19.3% couples with children, 30.3% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 37.3%, with lone person households at 34.8% and group households making up 2.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Rosebud - McCrae fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 12.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are common, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (28.3%). A total of 24.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education: 9.2% in primary, 7.0% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

Within Rosebud - McCrae, there are seven schools educating approximately 2,005 students. These schools operate under typical Australian conditions (ICSEA: 984) with balanced educational opportunities. Educational provision is divided between three primary and four secondary institutions. School places per 100 residents stand at 8.5, lower than the regional average of 14.3, indicating some students may attend schools in nearby areas. Note that for schools marked 'n/a' regarding enrolments, please refer to their parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rosebud-McCrae has 78 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that together facilitate 848 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically residing 882 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 121 daily trips across all routes, equating to roughly 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Rosebud - McCrae is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Rosebud-McCrae faces significant health challenges with various conditions impacting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 49% of its total population (~11,589 people) has private health cover, compared to 57.9% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.3%. The most common conditions are arthritis (12.5%) and mental health issues (10.0%), while 57.3% report no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in Greater Melbourne.

As of 2016, 35.4% of residents were aged 65 and over (8,348 people), higher than the 29.9% in Greater Melbourne. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are generally positive.

Rosebud - McCrae ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Rosebud-McCrae has a lower cultural diversity, with 82.8% of its residents born in Australia, 89.0% being citizens, and 93.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 46.2%. Judaism, however, is overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (32.8%), Australian (29.1%), and Irish (8.9%). Scottish (8.7%) and Macedonian (0.3%) are notably overrepresented, while Italian (4.1%) is slightly above the regional average of 3.4%.

Rosebud - McCrae ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Rosebud - McCrae has a median age of 52, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and significantly higher than Australia's national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group makes up 13.5% of Rosebud-McCrae's population, compared to Greater Melbourne's figure and the national average of 6%. Census data from post-2021 shows that this age group has grown from 11.9% to 13.5%, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 9.4% to 8.2%. By 2041, Rosebud-McCrae's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 75-84 group is projected to grow by 47%, reaching 4662 people from 3177. This growth will be led by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 83% of the projected growth. Conversely, populations in the 15-24 and 0-4 age groups are expected to decline.