Rosebud - McCrae

Population growth drivers in Rosebud - McCrae are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Rosebud - McCrae's population is approximately 23,558. This figure represents an increase of 614 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,944. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,441 in June 2024 and an additional 203 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 989 persons per square kilometer. Rosebud - McCrae's 2.7% growth since the 2021 census exceeds the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.3%, making it a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Rosebud - McCrae is projected to increase by 3,550 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 13.9% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Rosebud - McCrae when compared nationally

Rosebud-McCrae has averaged approximately 162 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 814 homes. As of FY-26100 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.8 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that supply has met or exceeded demand while supporting potential population growth. The average construction cost value of new homes is $355,000.

In FY-26, commercial development approvals reached $93.2 million, suggesting strong local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Rosebud-McCrae has seen 36.0% more development per person over the past five years, balancing buyer choice and supporting property values. Development activity has moderated in recent periods. New building activity comprises 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options across price brackets.

This marks a shift from the current housing pattern of 85.0% houses, potentially due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. The area has approximately 191 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections estimate Rosebud-McCrae will add 3,273 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Rosebud - McCrae has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

Influence on performance: Local infrastructure changes. Total identified project: One. Key projects: Rosedale Residential Development, Arthurs Seat Escarpment Management Plan, Greater Dromana Masterplan, Mornington Peninsula Freeway Maintenance Program. Relevant details follow.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Rosebud - McCrae recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Rosebud - McCrae has an unemployment rate of 5.7% as of September 2025, with estimated employment growth of 3.0% over the past year. There are 9,644 residents in work, and the unemployment rate is 1.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation lags significantly at 46.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services employ only 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over the past year, employment increased by 3.0%, while labour force increased by 2.7%, resulting in a fall in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0% but unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rosebud - McCrae's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022, Rosebud - McCrae SA2 had median taxpayer income of $43,530 and average income of $58,945. These figures are lower than national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively for Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from financial year ending June 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $48,823 and average income is around $66,113. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Rosebud - McCrae fall between the 10th and 14th percentiles nationally. The largest income segment comprises 27.8% earning $800-$1,499 weekly (6,549 residents), differing from broader area where $1,500-$2,999 category predominates at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Rosebud - McCrae is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Rosebud - McCrae's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.0% houses and 15.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rosebud - McCrae was 44.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.7% and rented ones at 26.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,989 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Rosebud - McCrae was $350, lower than Melbourne metro's $380 and the national average of $375.

Rosebud - McCrae features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.7% of all households, including 19.3% that are couples with children, 30.3% that are couples without children, and 12.1% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.3%, with lone person households at 34.8% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Rosebud - McCrae fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas comprise 12.6% and certificates make up 28.3%. A total of 24.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 9.2% in primary, 7.0% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rosebud-McCrae has 78 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that together facilitate 848 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these services is limited, with residents generally residing 882 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 121 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Rosebud - McCrae is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Rosebud-McCrae faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. As of 2016, approximately 49% (~11,566 people) had private health cover compared to Greater Melbourne's 57.9%. Nationally, the average was 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions were arthritis (affecting 12.5%) and mental health issues (impacting 10.0%). Conversely, 57.3% reported no medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne's 63.9%. Residents aged 65 and over constituted 35.4% (8,332 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors performed better than the general population in various metrics.

Rosebud - McCrae ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Rosebud-McCrae's population is predominantly Australian-born, with 82.8% of residents born in Australia. The majority are also citizens, standing at 89.0%, and speak English exclusively at home, which accounts for 93.4%. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 46.2% of the population.

Notably, Judaism is slightly overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, with 0.1% versus 0.2%. In terms of ancestry, the top groups are English (32.8%), Australian (29.1%), and Irish (8.9%). Some ethnic groups show notable variations: Scottish residents are more prevalent at 8.7%, Macedonian at 0.3%, and Italian at 4.1% compared to regional averages.

Rosebud - McCrae ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Rosebud - McCrae has a median age of 52, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group constitutes 13.5% of its population, compared to Greater Melbourne's percentage and significantly higher than the national average of 6%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort represents only 8.2%, lower than both Greater Melbourne and the national figure. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has increased from 11.9% to 13.5%, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 9.4% to 8.2%. By 2041, Rosebud - McCrae's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 75-84 group is projected to grow by 47%, reaching 4,662 people from the current 3,170. This growth will be driven primarily by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 83% of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are expected in the 15-24 and 0-4 age groups.