Rosebud - McCrae

Population growth drivers in Rosebud - McCrae are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Rosebud - McCrae's population is approximately 23,523 as of May 2026. This figure represents an increase of 579 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,944. The growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 23,509 in June 2025 and validated new addresses totalling 213 since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 988 persons per square kilometer, roughly in line with averages across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Rosebud - McCrae's growth rate of 2.5% since the 2021 census exceeds that of its SA3 area (2.0%), indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 64.7% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made through weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041 based on these aggregations. According to demographic trends, an above median population growth is projected nationally, with Rosebud - McCrae expected to expand by 3,298 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 14.0% over the 16-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Rosebud - McCrae when compared nationally

Rosebud - McCrae has seen approximately 162 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 814 homes were approved, with an additional 132 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, about 0.8 people have moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five years.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and supporting population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $355,000. In FY-26 alone, $93.2 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Rosebud - McCrae shows moderately higher development activity, with 36.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years.

This has maintained good buyer choice while supporting existing property values, although development activity has moderated in recent periods. The new building activity consists of approximately 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating an expanding range of medium-density options that cater to various price brackets. This marks a significant shift from the current housing pattern, which is predominantly composed of houses (85.0%). Rosebud - McCrae reflects a low-density area, with around 191 people per approval. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the region is expected to grow by approximately 3,283 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Rosebud - McCrae has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely impacting the area. Key projects are Rosedale Residential Development, Arthurs Seat Eagle SkyTower and Alpine Coaster Project, Arthurs Seat Escarpment Management Plan, Greater Dromana Masterplan. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Rosebud - McCrae are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Rosebud-McCrae has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 6.2% as of December 2025. Employment in the construction sector is particularly notable. Over the past year, there was estimated employment growth of 2.9%.

As of December 2025, 9,667 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Rosebud-McCrae lags behind Greater Melbourne at 50.4%. According to Census responses, 19.5% of residents work from home. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction employs a notably high share of workers, 1.6 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services employ only 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.9%, labour force increased by 2.0%, causing a fall in unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 2.4% while unemployment rose by 0.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rosebud-McCrae's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Rosebud - McCrae SA2 had lower income levels than the national average in financial year 2023. The median income was $46,422 and the average was $59,142. In Greater Melbourne, these figures were higher at $57,688 (median) and $75,164 (average). By March 2026, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 9.62%, estimated incomes would be approximately $50,888 (median) and $64,831 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Rosebud - McCrae's household, family, and personal incomes fell between the 10th and 14th percentiles nationally. The income band of $800 - 1,499 captured 27.8% of individuals (6,539) in the area, differing from Melbourne where the $1,500 - 2,999 category was predominant at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Rosebud - McCrae is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Rosebud - McCrae, as per the latest Census evaluation, 85.0% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 15.0% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. In contrast, Melbourne metropolitan area had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rosebud - McCrae stood at 44.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.7% and rented ones at 26.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Rosebud - McCrae was $350, compared to Melbourne's $390. Nationally, mortgage repayments averaged $1,863 and rents were $375 per week.

Rosebud - McCrae features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.7% of all households, including 19.3% that are couples with children, 30.3% that are couples without children, and 12.1% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.3%, with lone person households at 34.8% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Rosebud - McCrae fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (28.3%). A substantial 24.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 9.2% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rosebud-McCrae has 78 operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by three routes, offering a total of 540 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is limited, with residents usually located 876 meters from the nearest stop. Most commuters travel outward due to the area's residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 96%. Each dwelling averages 1.2 vehicles.

According to the 2021 Census, 19.5% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The average service frequency is 77 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly six weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Rosebud - McCrae is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Rosebud - McCrae faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~11,385 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (12.5%) and mental health issues (10.0%). Conversely, 57.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors at 35.5%, or 8,338 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

Rosebud - McCrae ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Rosebud-McCrae, as per the census conducted on 9 August 2016, showed a lower level of cultural diversity compared to the regional average. The population was predominantly born in Australia, with 82.8%, and were citizens at 89.0%. English was spoken exclusively at home by 93.4% of the residents.

Christianity was the most prevalent religion, accounting for 46.2% of the population. However, Judaism, though a minority, was overrepresented in Rosebud-McCrae compared to Greater Melbourne, with 0.1% versus 1.0%. The top three ancestry groups were English at 32.8%, Australian at 29.1%, and Irish at 8.9%, all of which were significantly higher than the regional averages of 20.1%, 18.4%, and 6.5% respectively. Notably, Scottish ancestry was also overrepresented at 8.7%. Other ethnic groups with notable divergences included Macedonian at 0.3% and Italian at 4.1%.

Rosebud - McCrae ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Rosebud - McCrae has a median age of 52, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group constitutes 13.6% of its population, compared to Greater Melbourne's percentage and significantly higher than the national average of 6.1%. Meanwhile, the 25-34 cohort makes up only 8.2% of Rosebud - McCrae's population. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75-84 age group has increased from 11.9% to 13.6%, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 9.4% to 8.2%. By 2041, Rosebud - McCrae's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 91%, reaching 2,731 people from the current 1,427. The population aged 65 and above will comprise 80% of this growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 25-34 and 0-4 age groups.