Rosebud - McCrae

Population growth drivers in Rosebud - McCrae are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Rosebud-McCrae's population is approximately 24,534 as of February 2026. This figure shows an increase of 1,590 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,944. The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 23,282 in June 2024 and an additional 212 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,030 persons per square kilometer. Rosebud-McCrae's growth rate of 6.9% since the 2021 census exceeded both its SA3 area (3.7%) and SA4 region, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to demographic trends, an above median population growth is projected nationally, with Rosebud-McCrae expected to increase by 3,550 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 9.4% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Rosebud - McCrae when compared nationally

Rosebud - McCrae has averaged approximately 162 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 814 homes. In FY-26 so far, 103 approvals have been recorded. The average number of people moving to the area for each dwelling built over these five years is 0.8. This indicates that supply meets or exceeds demand, offering greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $355,000. In this financial year, commercial development approvals have reached $93.2 million, suggesting strong local business investment. Comparatively, Rosebud - McCrae has slightly more development activity than the Greater Melbourne regional average per person over the past five years, balancing buyer choice with support for current property values. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods.

The new building activity shows 57% detached houses and 43% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of housing opportunities across different price brackets. This marks a significant shift from the existing housing patterns, which are currently 85% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The location has approximately 191 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Future projections estimate that Rosebud - McCrae will add 2,297 residents by 2041 (based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Rosebud - McCrae has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project that may impact this region: Rosedale Residential Development, Arthurs Seat Escarpment Management Plan, Greater Dromana Masterplan, and Mornington Peninsula Freeway Maintenance Program are key projects, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Rosebud - McCrae recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Rosebud - McCrae's skilled workforce is notable, with the construction sector prominent. The unemployment rate was 5.7% in September 2025, a year that saw estimated employment growth of 3.0%. As of this date, 9,644 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.0%, higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was lower at 50.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Home-based work accounted for 19.5% of jobs based on Census responses. Health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade are leading employment industries in Rosebud - McCrae. The area specializes in construction with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services employed only 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Limited local employment opportunities are suggested by resident population data compared to working population counts. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 3.0%, while the labour force grew by 2.7%, leading to an unemployment rate decrease of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, with labour force growth at 3.3% and a corresponding unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May-25) project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rosebud - McCrae's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though these are illustrative extrapolations based on national figures and do not account for localized population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released on 30 June 2023, Rosebud - McCrae SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $46,422 with the average level at $59,142. This is lower than national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $50,252 (median) and $64,021 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows household incomes in Rosebud - McCrae fall between the 10th and 14th percentiles nationally. The largest income segment comprises 27.8% earning $800-$1,499 weekly, with 6,820 residents, differing from broader area where $1,500-$2,999 category predominates at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 10th percentile.

Rosebud - McCrae is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Rosebud - McCrae, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 85.0% houses and 15.0% other dwellings. In Melbourne metro, this was 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rosebud - McCrae stood at 44.5%, with the rest either mortgaged (28.7%) or rented (26.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000 and Australia's national figure of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Rosebud - McCrae was $350, lower than Melbourne metro's $390 and the Australian average of $375.

Rosebud - McCrae features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.7% of all households, including 19.3% couples with children, 30.3% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.3%, with lone person households at 34.8% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Rosebud - McCrae fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (28.3%), are held by 40.9% of residents aged 15 and above. A total of 24.5% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, with 9.2% in primary, 7.0% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rosebud-McCrae has 78 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These are served by three routes that collectively facilitate 540 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically located 876 meters from the nearest stop. The area is predominantly residential, and most commuters travel outward, primarily by car (96%). On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 19.5% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 77 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately six weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Rosebud - McCrae is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Rosebud, McCrae faces significant health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (around 11,874 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.5% of residents) and mental health issues (10.0%), while 57.3% claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 36.3% of residents aged 65 and over (8,903 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Rosebud - McCrae ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Rosebud-McCrae, as per data from 2016 Census, showed low cultural diversity with 82.8% of its population born in Australia, 89.0% being citizens, and 93.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion at 46.2%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

For ancestry, English (32.8%) and Australian (29.1%) were significantly higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4% respectively. Irish ancestry stood at 8.9%. Notable divergences included Scottish at 8.7% (vs region's 5.6%), Macedonian at 0.3% (vs 0.7%), and Italian at 4.1% (vs 5.2%).

Rosebud - McCrae ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Rosebud - McCrae has a median age of 52, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and significantly higher than the national norm of 38. The age group of 75-84 shows strong representation at 14.1% compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 7.7%. This concentration in the 75-84 age group is well above the national figure of 6.1%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 11.9% to 14.1% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 9.4% to 7.7%, and the 5 to 14 group has dropped from 9.8% to 8.7%. By the year 2041, Rosebud - McCrae is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 85+ group is projected to grow by 83%, reaching 2,775 from 1,516. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 85% of projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15-24 and 0-4 age cohorts.