Rosebud - McCrae
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Rosebud - McCrae are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Rosebud-McCrae's population is approximately 23,558 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 614 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 22,944. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 23,441 in June 2024 and an additional 203 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 989 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Rosebud-McCrae's growth rate of 2.7% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.3%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.1% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth in the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers and demographic trends, Rosebud-McCrae is projected to increase by 3,550 persons to reach a total of approximately 27,108 by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 13.9% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Rosebud - McCrae when compared nationally

Rosebud-McCrae has averaged approximately 162 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 814 homes. As of FY-26, 92 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.8 people move to the area each year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction cost value of new homes is $355,000.

In FY-26, $93.2 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Rosebud-McCrae has seen 36.0% more development per person over the past five years, balancing buyer choice while supporting current property values. However, development activity has moderated recently. The type of new buildings shows a shift towards medium-density options: 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant change from the current 85.0% houses.

This indicates diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The location has approximately 191 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market. Future projections show Rosebud-McCrae adding 3,273 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Rosebud - McCrae has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project expected to impact this region: Rosedale Residential Development, Arthurs Seat Escarpment Management Plan, Greater Dromana Masterplan, and Mornington Peninsula Freeway Maintenance Program are key initiatives, with the following projects being particularly relevant.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Rosebud - McCrae faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Rosebud - McCrae has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being particularly prominent. The unemployment rate was 6.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.3%.

As of June 2025, there are 9,616 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.3%, which is 1.6% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Rosebud - McCrae is significantly lower at 46.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction employment share is notably high at 1.6 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 5.3% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population versus resident population count. Between June 2024 and May 2025, employment increased by 3.3%, while the labour force grew by 4.6%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 1.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5%, with a labour force increase of 4.0% and an unemployment rate rise of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Rosebud - McCrae's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released in financial year 2022, Rosebud - McCrae had a median income among taxpayers of $43,530. The average income stood at $58,945. This is lower than the national average and compares to levels of $54,892 and $73,761 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $48,823 (median) and $66,113 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Rosebud - McCrae all fall between the 10th and 14th percentiles nationally. The largest segment comprises 27.8% earning $800 - $1,499 weekly (6,549 residents), differing from the broader area where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile.

Rosebud - McCrae is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Rosebud - McCrae, as per the latest Census evaluation, 85.0% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 15.0% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments and other types. This is comparable to Melbourne metropolitan area's dwelling composition of 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rosebud - McCrae stood at 44.5%, matching the Melbourne metro level, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 28.7% and rented ones for 26.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, lower than Melbourne's average of $1,989. The median weekly rent in Rosebud - McCrae was recorded at $350, compared to Melbourne's $380. Nationally, Rosebud - McCrae's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Rosebud - McCrae features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.7% of all households, including 19.3% couples with children, 30.3% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.3%, with lone person households at 34.8% and group households making up 2.5%. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Rosebud - McCrae fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 17.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common (12.8%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 12.6% and certificates at 28.3%.

A substantial 24.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 9.2% in primary, 7.0% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education. There are seven schools operating within Rosebud - McCrae, educating approximately 2,005 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 984) with balanced educational opportunities. Educational provision is conventional, split between three primary and four secondary institutions. School places per 100 residents are at 8.5, below the regional average of 14.3, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rosebud-McCrae has 78 active public transport stops. All are bus stops, served by three routes offering a total of 848 weekly passenger trips. Residents' access to transport is limited, with an average distance of 882 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 121 trips per day across all routes, equating to around ten weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Rosebud - McCrae is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Rosebud-McCrae faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. As of June 2021, approximately 49% (~11,566 people) had private health cover, lower than Greater Melbourne's 57.9% and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions were arthritis (12.5%) and mental health issues (10.0%), with 57.3% reporting no medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne's 63.9%.

In June 2021, 35.4% of residents were aged 65 and over (8,332 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in the area are better than those for the general population.

Rosebud - McCrae ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Rosebud-McCrae has a lower-than-average cultural diversity, with 82.8% of its population born in Australia, 89.0% being citizens, and 93.4% speaking English only at home. The primary religion is Christianity, practiced by 46.2% of the population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 0.1% versus 0.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (32.8%), Australian (29.1%), and Irish (8.9%). Some ethnic groups show significant variations: Scottish at 8.7% (versus 9.0% regionally), Macedonian at 0.3% (versus 0.1%), and Italian at 4.1% (versus 3.4%).

Rosebud - McCrae ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Rosebud - McCrae's median age is 52, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group makes up 13.5% of Rosebud - McCrae's population, compared to 6.0% nationally and a lower percentage in Greater Melbourne. Post-2021 Census data shows this group has grown from 11.9% to 13.5%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort makes up 8.2%, down from 9.4%. By 2041, Rosebud - McCrae's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 75-84 group is projected to grow by 47% (1,491 people), reaching 4,662 from 3,170. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 83% of the population growth, while declines are projected for the 15-24 and 0-4 age groups.