Rye

Population growth drivers in Rye are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the suburb of Rye is estimated at around 9,449 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 11 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,438 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 9,362, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 530 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. An above median population growth is projected for the suburb, with an expected increase of 1,517 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 15.1% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Rye when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates that Rye has seen approximately 36 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 182 homes. As of FY-26, 18 approvals have been recorded. The average increase in residents per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25 is 2.1, suggesting healthy demand that supports property values. New homes are being constructed at an average cost of $1,271,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

In terms of commercial development, $20.0 million in approvals have been recorded this financial year. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Rye has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 55th percentile nationally. Ninety-six percent of new building activity involves detached dwellings, with townhouses or apartments comprising the remaining four percent, preserving the area's low density nature.

The location has approximately 289 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Rye is expected to grow by 1,430 residents through to 2041. Building activity appears to be keeping pace with growth projections, although buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Rye has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 37thth percentile nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects potentially impacting the region: 6 Napier Street Hotel Development, 2135 Point Nepean Road in Rye, Rye Foreshore Promenade Redevelopment, and Rye Pier Reconstruction. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Rye remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Rye's workforce is skilled with notable representation in construction. The unemployment rate was 3.9% as of the past year. Employment growth was estimated at 2.7%.

As of December 2025, 4,529 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 0.9% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Rye was 56.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. A high proportion of residents worked from home, 26.3%, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment industries were construction, healthcare & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction had a particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average. Finance & insurance had limited presence at 2.1% compared to the regional average of 4.9%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.7%, labour force grew by 2.1%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 2.4% with a labour force expansion of 2.8% and an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand in Rye. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Rye's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 indicates that Rye suburb's median income is $42,732 and average income stands at $73,538. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth rate of 8.25% from financial year ending June 2023 to September 2025, estimated current incomes would be approximately $46,257 (median) and $79,605 (average). Census data reveals that household, family, and personal incomes in Rye rank modestly, between the 22nd and 28th percentiles. Distribution data shows that the largest segment comprises 27.3% of residents earning $1,500 to $2,999 weekly (2,579 residents), reflecting similar patterns seen in the region where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Rye is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Rye, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 94.8% houses and 5.3% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Melbourne metro's structure which was 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Rye stood at 47.4%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (30.8%) or rented (21.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,800, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure in Rye was recorded at $372, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Rye's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Rye features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households are prevalent, accounting for 66.9% of all households. They include couples with children at 22.6%, couples without children at 33.5%, and single parent families at 10.0%. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.1%, with lone person households at 30.2% and group households at 2.8%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Rye performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 24.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.7%) and certificates (26.9%). Educational participation is high at 25.8%, comprising primary education (9.8%), secondary education (7.2%), and tertiary education (3.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Rye shows that there are 67 active transport stops currently operating within the area. These stops service a mix of bus routes, with a total of 3 individual routes providing 421 weekly passenger trips collectively. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as moderate, with residents typically located an average of 439 meters from their nearest transport stop. As Rye is primarily residential, most residents commute outward, with the car remaining the dominant mode of transportation at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling in Rye, which is above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high 26.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 60 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Rye's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data for Rye shows positive outcomes, aligning with national benchmarks.

Common health conditions are low across all age groups. Private health cover is high at approximately 56%. The most common conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (8.8%), while 62.9% report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions. As of 30 June 20XX, 35.0% of Rye's population is aged 65 and over (3,307 people), higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, matching national rankings.

Rye ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Rye's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.6% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (83.3%), and speaking English only at home (91.6%). Christianity was the dominant religion in Rye, comprising 46.1% of the population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented in Rye at 0.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (31.8%), Australian (26.8%), and Irish (10.3%). These percentages were substantially higher than their respective regional averages: English (20.1%), Australian (18.4%), and Irish (7.9%). Additionally, Italian (4.8%) was notably overrepresented in Rye compared to the regional average of 5.2%, while Greek (2.2%) and French (0.6%) were slightly underrepresented compared to their respective averages of 2.7% and 0.5%.

Rye ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Rye's median age is 52, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group constitutes 17.1% of Rye's population, compared to Greater Melbourne's figure, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 8.2%. This concentration in the 65-74 age group is notably higher than the national average of 9.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.3% to 13.5%, and the 85+ cohort has increased from 3.3% to 4.4%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.7% to 12.1%, and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 10.3% to 9.1%. By 2041, Rye's age composition is expected to shift significantly. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 160%, reaching 1,080 people from the current figure of 415. This growth will be led by those aged 65 and above, who are expected to comprise 87% of Rye's population growth. Conversely, declines in population are projected for the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age cohorts.