Rye

Population growth drivers in Rye are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Rye is around 9,756, reflecting a growth of 318 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 3.4% rise from the previous population count of 9,438. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 9,755, following their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and validation of an additional 12 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 547 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential room for further development. Rye's growth rate exceeded that of its SA3 area (2.0%) and SA4 region, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver behind this population growth.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, an above median population growth is expected in the suburb of Rye, with an anticipated increase of 1,597 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 16.4% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Rye according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Rye has had around 36 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 182 homes were approved, with a further 20 approved in FY-26. Over these five years, an average of 0.6 new residents per dwelling was recorded.

This suggests supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering more buyer choices while supporting potential population growth. The average construction cost value for new homes is $1,271,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment. In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $20.0 million, suggesting balanced commercial development activity in Rye compared to Greater Melbourne.

Nationally, Rye ranks around the 55th percentile for new dwelling approvals per person. New developments consist of 96.0% detached dwellings and 4.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's low-density character with a focus on family homes. Rye is expected to grow by 1,596 residents by 2041, according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Rye has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 38thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects expected to affect the region. Notable projects include the 6 Napier Street Hotel Development, located at 2135 Point Nepean Road, Rye; the Rye Foreshore Promenade Redevelopment; and the Rye Pier Reconstruction. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Rye shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Rye has a skilled workforce with the construction sector prominently represented. Its unemployment rate was 3.9% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.2%. As of December 2025, 4645 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation in Rye was 56.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 26.3% of residents worked from home. The dominant employment sectors were construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction had particularly high representation, with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average.

Finance & insurance had limited presence, with only 2.1% employment compared to the regional average of 4.9%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities. Between December 2025 and January 2026, employment increased by 3.2%, labour force grew by 2.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4%, labour force grow by 2.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. National employment forecasts from May-25 projected a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rye's employment mix, local employment was estimated to increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Rye had a median taxpayer income of $42,732 and an average income of $73,538 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was higher than the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $57,688 with an average income of $75,164. By March 2026, estimates suggest the median income in Rye would be approximately $46,843 and the average income around $80,612, based on a 9.62% growth rate since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census data showed household, family, and personal incomes in Rye were modest, ranking between the 22nd and 28th percentiles. Income distribution indicated that 27.3% of locals (2,663 people) fell within the $1,500 - $2,999 category, similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% occupied this bracket. Housing affordability was severe in Rye, with only 84.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Rye is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Rye's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 94.8% houses and 5.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rye stood at 47.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.8% and rented ones at 21.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Weekly rent median was $372, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Rye's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Rye features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.9% of all households, including 22.6% couples with children, 33.5% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 33.1%, with lone person households at 30.2% and group households making up 2.8%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Rye performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 24.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 16.8% of residents holding one. Postgraduate qualifications and graduate diplomas follow at 4.4% and 3.0% respectively. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.6% of residents aged 15+ possessing them, including advanced diplomas (13.7%) and certificates (26.9%).

Educational participation is high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education at 9.8%, secondary education at 7.2%, and tertiary education at 3.2%.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 67 active transport stops operating within Rye, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by three individual routes, collectively providing 421 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 439 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 26.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 60 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately six weekly trips per individual stop.

Rye's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Rye's health data shows positive outcomes, aligning with national benchmarks for mortality rates and health conditions.

Common health conditions have a low prevalence across both younger and older age groups. Approximately 56% (~5,450 people) of Rye residents have private health cover, which is very high compared to other areas. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (8.8%), with 62.9% of residents reporting no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. Rye has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 32.6% (3,180 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, ranking broadly in line with the general population nationally.

Rye ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Rye, surveyed in 2016, had a culturally diverse population with 87.6% citizens, 83.3% born in Australia, and 91.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 46.1%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, English (31.8%) and Australian (26.8%) were significantly higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4% respectively. Irish ancestry stood at 10.3%. Notably, Italian was overrepresented at 4.8%, Greek at 2.2%, and French at 0.6%.

Rye ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Rye's median age is 51 years, which is notably higher than Greater Melbourne's median age of 37 years, and significantly older than the national norm of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in Rye at 15.5%, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 8.9%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 9.3% to 12.0%, while the 85+ cohort has grown from 3.3% to 5.1%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.7% to 12.4%, and the 65 to 74 group has dropped from 16.6% to 15.5%. Demographic modeling suggests that Rye's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 85+ age cohort is projected to surge dramatically, expanding by 690 people (139%) from 497 to 1,188. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 86% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 25-34 cohorts.