Rye

Population growth drivers in Rye are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Rye is around 9,449, reflecting an increase of 11 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 9,438. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 9,362 as of June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 530 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Rye has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%, outpacing its SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration. AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 adjusted employing weighted aggregation method for areas not covered.

Future population trends project an above median growth for the suburb, expecting it to grow by 1,512 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 17.5% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Rye when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Rye had approximately 37 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling around 185 homes. As of FY26, 16 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25 attracted 2.1 new residents per year, indicating healthy demand which supports property values. New homes are being constructed at an average cost of $1,271,000, reflecting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

This financial year, Rye has seen $20.0 million in commercial development approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Rye has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 56th percentile nationally. New building activity is predominantly detached dwellings at 96.0%, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

The location has approximately 277 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Rye is expected to grow by 1,652 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Rye has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 37thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to affect the region. Notable projects include the 6 Napier Street Hotel Development, located at 2135 Point Nepean Road in Rye, the Rye Foreshore Promenade Redevelopment, and the Rye Pier Reconstruction. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Rye remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Rye has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably represented. The unemployment rate in Rye is 3.6%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.1% based on AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of September 2025, there are 4,511 residents employed with an unemployment rate of 1.0% below Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation in Rye is lower at 56.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 26.3% of residents work from home. Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered when interpreting this figure.

The leading employment industries among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction has a particularly high concentration with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average. Finance & insurance, however, has limited presence in Rye with only 2.1% of employment compared to the regional average of 4.9%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.1% and labour force grew by 3.0%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable at 3.6%. In Greater Melbourne during this period, employment grew by 3.0%, labour force expanded by 3.3%, and unemployment rose to 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand within Rye. These projections suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Rye's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes. This does not take into account localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that Rye has an above national average income. The median income is $42,732 while the average stands at $73,538. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 for the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% from July 2023 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $46,257 (median) and $79,605 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Rye rank modestly, between the 22nd and 28th percentiles. Income distribution shows that the largest segment is 27.3% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly, with 2,579 residents falling into this category. This pattern is similar to the region where 32.8% occupy this income range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Rye, with only 84.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Rye is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Rye, as per the latest Census evaluation, 94.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 5.3% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rye stood at 47.4%, with mortgaged properties at 30.8% and rented dwellings at 21.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,800, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Rye was recorded as $372, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Rye's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Rye features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.9% of all households, including 22.6% couples with children, 33.5% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.1%, with lone person households at 30.2% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Rye performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The region's university qualification rate is 24.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 16.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are held by 40.6% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 13.7% and certificates at 26.9%. Educational participation is high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 9.8% in primary, 7.2% in secondary, and 3.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 67 active transport stops operating within Rye, consisting of a mix of buses. These stops are served by 3 individual routes, collectively providing 421 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 439 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 26.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 60 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Rye's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows positive outcomes for Rye residents, with AreaSearch's analysis finding mortality rates and health conditions largely matching national averages.

Common health condition prevalence is low across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is high at approximately 56% of the total population (~5,279 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (8.8%). 62.9% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents have a higher-than-average chronic health condition prevalence. Rye has 35.1% of residents aged 65 and over (3,316 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Rye ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Rye's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.6% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (83.3%), and speaking English only at home (91.6%). Christianity was the predominant religion in Rye, comprising 46.1% of the population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented in Rye at 0.2%, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (31.8%), Australian (26.8%), and Irish (10.3%), each substantially higher than regional averages of 20.1%, 18.4%, respectively. Italian (4.8%) was notably overrepresented in Rye compared to regional average of 5.2%. Greek (2.2%) and French (0.6%) were also slightly overrepresented compared to regional averages of 2.7% and 0.5%, respectively.

Rye ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Rye has a median age of 52, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. The age group of 65-74 is strongly represented in Rye at 17.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's figure, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 8.0%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is significantly higher than the national average of 9.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.3% to 13.6% of Rye's population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.7% to 12.0%, and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 10.3% to 8.8%. By 2041, Rye is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 169%, reaching 1,066 people from the current figure of 396. This growth will be driven primarily by an aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 85% of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 age cohorts.