Rye

Population growth drivers in Rye are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of the Rye statistical area (Lv2) is around 9,447 people. This figure reflects an increase of 9 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 9,438. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 9,362 in June 2024 and the validation of 13 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 530 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Rye has shown resilience with a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration was the primary driver for population growth during recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made via weighted aggregation for areas not covered by ABS data. Future population trends indicate above median growth for Australian statistical areas, with Rye projected to grow by 1,508 persons to 2041, reflecting a 17.6% increase over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Rye when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Rye had around 37 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 185 homes. As of FY26, 16 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25 gained 2.1 new residents per year, indicating strong demand supporting property values. New homes are being constructed at an average cost of $1,271,000, reflecting a focus on premium properties.

This financial year has seen $20.0 million in commercial development approvals, showing moderate levels of commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Rye's new dwelling approval rate per person is about three-quarters the average, placing it at the 56th percentile nationally. The area's building activity comprises 96.0% detached dwellings and 4.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining its low-density nature.

There are approximately 277 people per dwelling approval in Rye. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates the location will grow by 1,660 residents. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Rye has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 36thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects likely affecting the area: 6 Napier Street Hotel Development, 2135 Point Nepean Road, Rye, Rye Foreshore Promenade Redevelopment, and Rye Pier Reconstruction.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Rye remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Rye's workforce is skilled with notable representation in construction. Unemployment stands at 3.6%, lower than the previous year's rate of 2.9%.

As of September 2025, 4,493 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Rye is significantly lower at 50.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average.

Finance & insurance has limited presence at 2.1% compared to the regional average of 4.9%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparison of working population vs resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.9%, while labour force grew by 2.8%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 3.6%. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% and labour force expand by 3.3%, with unemployment rising to 4.7%. Statewide in Victoria, as of 25-November 2025, employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rye's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows income in Rye is above national average. Median income is $42,732 and average income stands at $73,538. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $46,257 (median) and $79,605 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Rye, between the 22nd and 28th percentiles. Distribution data shows largest segment comprises 27.3% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (2,579 residents), reflecting patterns seen regionally where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 23rd percentile. Area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Rye is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Rye, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.8% houses and 5.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rye was at 47.4%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (30.8%) or rented (21.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,989. The median weekly rent in Rye was $372, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Rye's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Rye features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.9% of all households, including 22.6% couples with children, 33.5% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 33.1%, with lone person households at 30.2% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.4.

Rye performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 24.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 16.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are held by 40.6% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 13.7% and certificates at 26.9%. Educational participation is high, with 25.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.8% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Rye shows 67 active public transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with three individual routes currently in operation. Together, these routes facilitate 421 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as moderate, with residents on average located 439 meters from their nearest transport stop. Service frequency across all routes averages 60 trips per day, equating to approximately six weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Rye is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Rye faces significant health challenges, as evidenced by high prevalence rates for common conditions across both younger and older age groups.

Private health insurance coverage is notably high at approximately 56%, representing about 5,278 people. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (8.8%). However, a substantial proportion of residents (62.9%) report no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in Greater Melbourne overall. Rye has a higher percentage of seniors aged 65 and over (33.9%, or 3,202 people) than Greater Melbourne (29.9%). Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Rye are above average, outperforming the general population in various health metrics.

Rye ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Rye's cultural diversity was found to be below average. Its population comprised 87.6% citizens, with 83.3% born in Australia and 91.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 46.1% of Rye's population.

While Judaism made up only 0.2%, this was a slight overrepresentation compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.2%. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.8%), Australian (26.8%), and Irish (10.3%). Notably, Italian, Greek, and French ethnicities were also overrepresented in Rye: Italians at 4.8% (vs regional 3.4%), Greeks at 2.2% (vs 1.2%), and French at 0.6% (vs 0.5%).

Rye ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Rye's median age is 52, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and significantly greater than the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group comprises 17.3% of Rye's population, compared to Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 8.4%. This 65-74 concentration is higher than the national figure of 9.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 9.3% to 12.6%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 13.7% to 12.4%, and the 5 to 14 group has dropped from 10.3% to 9.2%. By 2041, Rye's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 75 to 84 group is projected to grow by 60%, reaching 1,908 from 1,190. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising 87% of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age groups.