Rye

Population growth drivers in Rye are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Rye's population is estimated at around 9,651 people, reflecting an increase of 213 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,438. This increase, equivalent to a 2.3% rise, is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 9,613 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 13 validated new addresses since the Census date. The suburb's population density stands at 541 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person with potential for further development. Over the past decade, Rye has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area, and utilising VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods for areas not covered by the first dataset.

Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth for Australian statistical areas, with Rye expected to grow by 1,508 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 15.1% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Rye when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Rye had around 51 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 257 homes. As of FY-26, 15 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.5 people moved to the area per dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand. However, this has moderated to 0.9 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting improved balance.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $1,271,000, reflecting a focus on the premium segment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Rye maintains similar development levels per person, consistent with broader market balance. The area's new development consists of 97.0% detached dwellings and 3.0% attached dwellings, preserving its traditional low density character focused on family homes.

With approximately 145 people per dwelling approval, the location indicates a low density market. Looking ahead, Rye is expected to grow by 1,456 residents by 2041, according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Rye has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects that may affect the region: 6 Napier Street Hotel Development, 2135 Point Nepean Road in Rye, Rye Foreshore Promenade Redevelopment, and Rye Pier Reconstruction. The following details those most likely to be relevant.

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The employment landscape in Rye shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Rye's workforce is skilled with notable representation in construction. Its unemployment rate was 4.0% as of the past year, with an estimated growth of 3.6%.

As of June 2025, 4,444 residents are employed at a 0.6% lower unemployment rate than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%, but workforce participation lags at 50.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade, with construction particularly notable at 1.9 times the regional average. Finance & insurance has limited presence at 2.1% compared to the regional 4.9%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count.

In the 12 months prior, employment increased by 3.6%, labour force by 4.7%, and unemployment rose by 1.0 percentage points, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's respective increases of 3.5%, 4.0%, and 0.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rye's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though these are simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Rye had a median taxpayer income of $42,732 and an average of $73,538 based on AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022. This was higher than the national averages, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 in the same period. By September 2025, based on a 12.16% growth since financial year 2022, estimated incomes would be approximately $47,928 (median) and $82,480 (average). The 2021 Census showed household, family, and personal incomes in Rye ranked modestly, between the 22nd and 28th percentiles. Income distribution data indicated that 27.3% of locals (2,634 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% occupied this bracket. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 84.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 23rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Rye is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Rye's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.8% houses and 5.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rye stood at 47.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.8% and rented ones at 21.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,989. Median weekly rent in Rye was $372, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Rye's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Rye features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.9% of all households, including 22.6% couples with children, 33.5% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 33.1%, with lone person households at 30.2% and group households making up 2.8%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.4.

Rye performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 24.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 16.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.7%) and certificates (26.9%). Educational participation is high at 25.8%, comprising 9.8% in primary, 7.2% in secondary, and 3.2% in tertiary education.

Rye Primary School serves the local area with an enrollment of 411 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1023). It focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. Local school capacity is limited at 4.3 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.3, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 67 active public transport stops in Rye, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by three distinct routes, collectively facilitating 668 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is assessed as moderate, with residents typically situated 438 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 95 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately nine weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Rye is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Rye faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 56%, covering around 5,392 people. The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health problems (8.8%). Around 62.9% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in Greater Melbourne. Rye has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 33.9%, or 3,271 people, than Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Health outcomes for seniors are above average, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Rye ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Rye's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.6% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (83.3%), and speaking English only at home (91.6%). Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 46.1% of Rye's population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented in Rye compared to Greater Melbourne, with 0.2% versus 0.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.8%), Australian (26.8%), and Irish (10.3%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Italian was overrepresented at 4.8% in Rye compared to the regional average of 3.4%, Greek at 2.2% versus 1.2%, and French at 0.6% versus 0.5%.

Rye ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Rye's median age is 52, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and significantly greater than the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group comprises 17.3% of Rye's population, compared to Greater Melbourne's figure, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 8.4%. This 65-74 concentration is notably higher than the national average of 9.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 9.3% to 12.6% of Rye's population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 13.7% to 12.4%, and the 5 to 14 group has dropped from 10.3% to 9.2%. By 2041, Rye is projected to experience significant shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 75 to 84 group is expected to grow by 57%, reaching 1,908 people from 1,216. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 90% of projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age cohorts.