McCrae

McCrae lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, McCrae's estimated population is around 3,609, showing a 9.0% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 3,311 people. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 3,592 residents using ABS ERP data (released June 2024) and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is approximately 841 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed about 68.0% to McCrae's recent population gains. AreaSearch projects an above median growth for the suburb, expecting it to add 493 persons by 2041, reflecting an 8.5% increase over 17 years based on aggregated SA2-level projections.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth of Australian statistical areas is projected, with the area expected to grow by 493 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting recording a gain of 8.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within McCrae when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows McCrae had approximately 28 new homes approved annually. Between financial years FY-21 to FY-25, around 144 homes were approved, with a further 22 approved in FY-26. Over these five years, an average of 0.9 new residents was associated with each dwelling constructed.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new homes was $506,000. In FY-26, commercial approvals totaled $13.6 million, signifying steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, McCrae has 65% more construction activity per person. Recent construction comprises 62% detached dwellings and 38% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current 93% houses, suggesting decreasing developable land availability and responding to changing lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

With around 128 people per dwelling approval, McCrae exhibits growth area characteristics. Future projections estimate McCrae will add 307 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

McCrae has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project expected to impact this region: Rosedale Residential Development, Arthurs Seat Escarpment Management Plan, Greater Dromana Masterplan, and Mornington Peninsula Freeway Maintenance Program are among the key projects. The following details those most relevant.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates McCrae faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

McCrae's workforce comprises skilled individuals, particularly notable in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 6.6% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 3.3% over the preceding year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of that date, 1,490 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 2.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in McCrae was significantly lower at 51.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors among residents included construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Notably, the area had a high specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level.

Conversely, finance & insurance employed only 1.0% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 4.9%. The predominantly residential nature of McCrae appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment in McCrae increased by 3.3% while labour force grew by 4.7%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate of 1.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, with an increase in unemployment rate of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 provided further insight into potential future demand within McCrae. These projections estimated national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to McCrae's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though it was noted that this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not consider localised population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that McCrae had an income median of $51,661 and average income of $69,955. Greater Melbourne's figures were a median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for McCrae as of September 2025 would be approximately $57,943 (median) and $78,462 (average). Census 2021 income data ranks household, family, and personal incomes in McCrae between the 31st and 36th percentiles. The $800 - $1,499 earnings band captures 29.0% of McCrae's community (1,046 individuals), contrasting with the region where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 32.8%. After housing expenses, 86.1% of income remains for other expenses in McCrae, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

McCrae is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluation revealed that McCrae's dwelling structure comprised 93.2% houses and 6.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 93.2% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in McCrae was at 54.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.9% and rented dwellings at 15.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,989. The median weekly rent in McCrae was $392, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, McCrae's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

McCrae has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 71.9% of all households, including 22.3% couples with children, 39.7% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 28.1%, with lone person households at 26.0% and group households making up 2.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

McCrae shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 25.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (13.6%) and certificates (26.9%). A total of 20.6% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, with 7.1% in primary, 6.0% in secondary, and 3.3% in tertiary education.

Educational facilities seem to be located outside the immediate catchment area, necessitating families to access schools in neighboring regions.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates ten active transport stops operating within McCrae. These stops serve a mix of buses. Two individual routes service these stops, collectively providing 574 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 806 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 82 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 57 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in McCrae is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

McCrae's health data shows significant challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Approximately 54% of McCrae's total population (~1,966 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 57.9%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (12.2%) and mental health issues (9.1%). Notably, 61.1% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 63.9%. McCrae has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 36.8% (1,328 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in McCrae are strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

McCrae is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

McCrae's population shows low cultural diversity, with 87.0% born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 94.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 45.9%. Judaism is overrepresented at 0.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.2%.

Top ancestral groups are English (32.1%), Australian (28.2%), and Irish (10.2%). Scottish ancestry is notably higher in McCrae at 10.1% versus the regional average of 9.0%. Dutch ancestry is also slightly higher, at 1.9% compared to 1.8%, while Hungarian remains similar at 0.3%.

McCrae ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

McCrae's median age is 55, which exceeds Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, McCrae has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (20.6%) and a lower proportion of those aged 25-34 (5.7%). The 65-74 age group is significantly over-represented compared to the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of McCrae's population aged 75-84 has grown from 11.4% to 13.4%, while the 25-34 age group has declined from 7.4% to 5.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in McCrae's age structure. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 203 people (42%), increasing from 483 to 687 residents. This growth will be driven primarily by senior residents aged 65 and above, who are expected to contribute to 82% of McCrae's population growth. Conversely, the 15-24 and 25-34 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.