Rosebud

Population growth drivers in Rosebud are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Rosebud's population is estimated at around 15,298. This reflects an increase of 917 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,381. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of resident population at 14,593 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 131 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,026 persons per square kilometer. Rosebud's growth rate of 6.4% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (3.7%) and the SA4 region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Rosebud (SA2) is expected to increase by 1,837 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of approximately 7.3% in total over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Rosebud when compared nationally

Rosebud has seen approximately 93 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, about 469 homes were approved, with an additional 57 in FY-26. On average, around 0.7 people have moved to the area per dwelling built over these years.

This suggests that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering more buyer choices while supporting potential population growth. The average construction cost of new properties is $506,000, indicating a focus on premium market segments. In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $54.3 million, reflecting strong local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Rosebud has slightly higher development activity, at 25.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years.

However, building activity has slowed in recent years. The new housing supply consists of 56.0% detached houses and 44.0% medium to high-density housing, expanding affordable options. This shift from the existing 89.0% houses reflects decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles. Rosebud's population growth is projected to add around 1,110 residents by 2041. With current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, presenting good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond projections.

Rosebud has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region: Rosedale Residential Development, Greater Dromana Masterplan, Mornington Peninsula Freeway Maintenance Program, and Housing for the Peninsula (Amendment C219morn). The following details projects most relevant to the area.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Rosebud recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Rosebud's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with construction being notably prominent. The unemployment rate in Rosebud is 5.5%, having grown by 3% over the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation from statistical areas.

As of September 2025, there are 6,283 employed residents, a figure that is 0.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's unemployment rate of 4.7%. However, workforce participation in Rosebud lags behind Greater Melbourne at 49.1% compared to the latter's 64.1%. The leading employment sectors among Rosebud's residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area displays strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.6 times higher than the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical jobs represent only 4.8% of total employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population figures. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment in Rosebud increased by 3%, while labour force grew by 2.7%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne experienced similar employment growth (3%) but had an increase in unemployment (0.3 percentage points) and labour force (3.3%). State-wide, Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year as of 25-November, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase in employment over five years and a 13.7% increase over ten years. Applying these projections to Rosebud's current employment mix suggests local employment should grow by approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Rosebud is below the national average. The median income is $43,740 and the average income stands at $59,229. In comparison, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Rosebud would be approximately $47,349 (median) and $64,115 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Rosebud all fall between the 12th and 14th percentiles nationally. Income brackets show that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 28.1% of the community (4,298 individuals), which aligns with the metropolitan region where this cohort also represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Rosebud, with only 81.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Rosebud is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Rosebud's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.7% houses and 11.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Melbourne metro's 88.7% houses and 11.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rosebud was at 42.8%, similar to Melbourne metro's figure. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 30.1%, with rented dwellings making up the remaining 27.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Rosebud was $1,755, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,989 and Australia's national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Rosebud was $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $380 and the national average of $375.

Rosebud features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.9% of all households, including 21.0% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.1%, with lone person households at 33.5% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Rosebud shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 16.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (29.4%). Educational participation is high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.7% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rosebud has 30 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that together offer 447 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is limited, with residents typically living 1153 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 63 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Rosebud is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Rosebud faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 50% (~7694 people) have private health cover, lower than Greater Melbourne's 57.8%. Nationally, the average is 55.7%.

The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (11.9%) and mental health issues (10.1%). However, 58.6% report no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in Greater Melbourne. Rosebud has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 31.5% (4818 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Rosebud ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Rosebud's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.6% of its population being citizens and 82.5% born in Australia. A majority, 93.4%, spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 44.9% of Rosebud's population.

While Judaism made up a small fraction, 0.1%, it was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.2%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.5%), Australian (29.2%), and Irish (8.9%). Notably, Macedonian (0.3%) and Hungarian (0.3%) were overrepresented in Rosebud compared to regional figures, while Dutch (1.5%) was slightly underrepresented relative to Greater Melbourne's 1.8%.

Rosebud hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Rosebud has a median age of 49, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and also above the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 years are particularly prominent, making up 12.2% of the population, while those aged 25-34 years make up only 8.9%. This concentration of those aged 75-84 is well above the national figure of 6.0%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of those aged 75 to 84 has grown from 10.6% to 12.2%, while the proportion of those aged 25 to 34 has declined from 10.1% to 8.9%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Rosebud's age structure. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 42%, reaching 2,641 people from the current figure of 1,866. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 83% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.