Rosebud

Population growth drivers in Rosebud are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of Feb 2026, the suburb of Rosebud's population is estimated at around 15,312. This reflects an increase of 931 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 14,381. The change was inferred from the resident population of 14,593 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 139 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,027 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Rosebud's growth of 6.5% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (3.7%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase by 1,839 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 7.3% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Rosebud when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Rosebud has seen approximately 94 dwellings granted development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 471 homes were approved, with a further 65 approved in FY-26 as of now. The average population increase per dwelling built over these years was 0.7 people.

This suggests that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more buyer choices and supporting potential population growth above projections. New properties are being constructed at an average expected cost of $506,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year has seen $54.3 million in commercial approvals, suggesting strong local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Rosebud has slightly more development activity, 25.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years.

This balances buyer choice while supporting current property values, despite a slowdown in building activity in recent years. New building activity shows 58.0% detached houses and 42.0% medium to high-density housing. This shift from the area's existing housing stock (currently 89.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles, with a need for more diverse and affordable housing options. Rosebud has around 208 people per dwelling approval, characteristic of a low density area. Population forecasts indicate Rosebud will gain approximately 1,120 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Rosebud has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 45thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely impacting the area: Rosedale Residential Development, Greater Dromana Masterplan, Mornington Peninsula Freeway Maintenance Program, and Housing for the Peninsula (Amendment C219morn). Projects of most relevance are detailed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Rosebud faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Rosebud has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is notably represented. The unemployment rate was 6.0% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.8%.

As of December 2025, 6,306 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate is higher at 1.3%, and workforce participation is lower at 53.0%. Home-based work accounts for 18.8% of jobs due to Covid-19 impacts. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction has a strong presence with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.8%. Local employment opportunities seem limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and 2025, employment increased by 2.8% while labour force grew by 2.1%, reducing unemployment by 0.7 percentage points. Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 2.4% with a rise in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rosebud's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Rosebud's median income is $43,740 and average income is $59,229. This is below Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. By September 2025, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%, Rosebud's estimated median income would be approximately $47,349 and average income $64,115. Census 2021 data indicates that incomes in Rosebud fall between the 12th and 14th percentiles nationally for household, family, and personal incomes. The most common income bracket is $1,500 - 2,999, representing 28.1% of residents (4,302 individuals), similar to Melbourne's metropolitan region at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Rosebud, with only 81.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Rosebud is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Rosebud's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.7% houses and 11.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rosebud stood at 42.8%, with the rest being mortgaged (30.1%) or rented (27.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,755, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000 and the national average of $1,863. Weekly rent in Rosebud was $350, below Melbourne metro's $390 and the national figure of $375.

Rosebud features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.9% of all households, including 21.0% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.1%, with lone person households at 33.5% and group households accounting for 2.7%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Rosebud shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 16.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (29.4%). Educational participation is high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.7% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rosebud has 30 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by three routes offering a total of 447 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically living 1153 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode at 96%, with an average vehicle ownership of 1.3 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 18.8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 63 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Rosebud is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Rosebud faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notably high across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately half of Rosebud's total population (~7,701 people) has private health cover, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.9%) and mental health issues (10.1%). Only 58.6% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, lower than the 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents face substantial health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. Rosebud has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (32.3%, or 4,945 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. While national rankings for senior health outcomes are broadly in line with the general population, some challenges exist among this age group.

Rosebud ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Rosebud's population was found to be predominantly culturally homogeneous, with 88.6% being citizens, 82.5% born in Australia, and 93.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the major religion in Rosebud, comprising 44.9% of its population. However, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 0.1% versus 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (32.5%), Australian (29.2%), and Irish (8.9%), all higher than regional averages. Notably, Macedonian (0.3%) and Hungarian (0.3%) groups are also overrepresented in Rosebud compared to the region.

Rosebud hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Rosebud has a median age of 49, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 are particularly prominent, making up 12.8% of the population, compared to 6.1% nationally. This group has grown from 10.6% in the 2021 Census. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is smaller at 8.7%, down from 10.1%. The 5-14 age group has also decreased, from 10.6% to 9.5%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Rosebud's age structure. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 34%, reaching 2,636 people from 1,959. The combined 65+ age groups will account for 81% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.