Rosebud

Population growth drivers in Rosebud are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Rosebud's population is estimated at around 14,729. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 14,381 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 14,654 following examination of ABS' ERP data release in June 2024 and additional validation of 131 new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 988 persons per square kilometer. Rosebud's growth of 2.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.3%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in the suburb.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase by 1,879 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 11.7% in total over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Rosebud when compared nationally

Rosebud has seen around 92 dwelling approvals annually, totaling 462 between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 49 in FY-26. On average, 0.7 people have moved to the area per dwelling built over the past five years. This indicates supply meeting or exceeding demand, offering more buyer choice while supporting potential population growth.

The average construction cost value of new properties is $506,000. In FY-26, commercial approvals reached $52.5 million, suggesting strong local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Rosebud has seen 23.0% more development per person over the past five years, balancing buyer choice with property value support. However, building activity has slowed recently.

New developments consist of 56.0% detached houses and 44.0% medium-high density housing, expanding affordable options. Rosebud's population growth is projected to add 1,721 residents by 2041. With current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, benefiting buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond projections. The area has around 214 people per dwelling approval, indicating low density characteristics.

Rosebud has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. A single project has been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting this particular area. Notable projects include Rosedale Residential Development, Greater Dromana Masterplan, Mornington Peninsula Freeway Maintenance Program, and Housing for the Peninsula (Amendment C219morn). The following list details those projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Rosebud recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Rosebud has a balanced workforce consisting of white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent with an unemployment rate of 6.1% and estimated employment growth of 3.3% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of June 2025, there are 6,270 residents employed, with an unemployment rate at 1.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is lower in Rosebud at 49.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction shows particularly strong specialization with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.8% versus the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 3.3%, while labour force grew by 4.7%, resulting in a rise in unemployment by 1.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Rosebud's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Income data from AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO figures for financial year 2022 indicates median income in Rosebud is $43,740 and average income is $59,229. This differs from Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $49,059 (median) and $66,431 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022. Census 2021 data shows Rosebud's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 12th and 14th percentiles nationally. Income brackets reveal that 28.1% of individuals in Rosebud earn $1,500 - $2,999 annually, similar to Melbourne's metropolitan region at 32.8%. Housing affordability is severe with only 81.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Rosebud is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Rosebud's housing structure, as per the latest Census, was 88.7% houses and 11.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rosebud was 42.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.1% and rented ones at 27.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,755, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,989. Median weekly rent in Rosebud was $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Rosebud's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Rosebud features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.9% of all households, including 21.0% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.1%, with lone person households at 33.5% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Rosebud shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area has university qualification rates of 16.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (29.4%). Educational participation is high at 26.0%, with 9.7% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Six schools operate within Rosebud, educating approximately 1,742 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 988) with balanced educational opportunities. Educational provision is split between two primary and four secondary institutions. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rosebud has 30 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that together facilitate 710 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is limited, with residents living an average of 1153 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 101 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to approximately 23 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Rosebud is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Rosebud faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately half of its total population (~7,408 people) has private health cover, compared to 57.9% in Greater Melbourne.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.9%) and mental health issues (10.1%), while 58.6% report no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in Greater Melbourne. Rosebud has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 31.6% (4,654 people) than Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Rosebud ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Rosebud's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.6% of its population being Australian citizens and 82.5% born in Australia. A majority, 93.4%, spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Rosebud, comprising 44.9% of the population.

However, Judaism was overrepresented, with 0.1% of Rosebud's population compared to 0.2% across Greater Melbourne. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.5%), Australian (29.2%), and Irish (8.9%). Notably, Macedonian (0.3%) and Hungarian (0.3%) were overrepresented in Rosebud compared to regional figures, while Dutch representation was slightly lower at 1.5%.

Rosebud hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Rosebud has a median age of 49, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 years are particularly prominent, making up 12.3% of the population, compared to the national average of 6%. This group has grown from 10.6% in the 2021 Census. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is smaller at 8.9%, having decreased from 10.1% since the 2021 Census. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Rosebud's age structure. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 47%, reaching 2,661 people from 1,811 currently. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 80% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0-4 and 25-34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.