Rosebud

Population growth drivers in Rosebud are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Rosebud is around 15,224. This figure represents an increase of 843 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,381. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 15,217 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 133 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,021 persons per square kilometer. Rosebud's growth rate of 5.9% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area (2.0%) and SA4 region, making it a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Rosebud is expected to increase its population by 1,789 persons to reach a total of 16,573 by 2041, reflecting an overall gain of 11.7% over the 16-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Rosebud when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Rosebud has experienced around 94 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Over the past five financial years, between FY21 and FY25, an estimated 471 homes were approved, with a further 77 approved so far in FY26. The average number of people moving to the area for each dwelling built over these years is 0.7 per year.

This suggests that supply is meeting or surpassing demand, offering greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth above projections. New properties are constructed at an average value of $506,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY26, there have been $54.3 million in commercial approvals, suggesting robust local business investment. When compared to Greater Melbourne, Rosebud has slightly more development, 24.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period.

This balances buyer choice with support for current property values, although building activity has slowed in recent years. New building activity shows 58.0% detached houses and 42.0% medium and high-density housing. This expanding range of medium-density options creates a mix of opportunities across price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently 89.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 208 people per dwelling approval, Rosebud shows characteristics of a low density area. Population forecasts indicate Rosebud will gain 1,782 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Rosebud has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

The influence of local infrastructure changes on an area's performance is significant. One major project has been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Rosedale Residential Development, Arthurs Seat Eagle SkyTower and Alpine Coaster Project, Greater Dromana Masterplan, and Mornington Peninsula Freeway Maintenance Program. The following details those likely to be most relevant.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Rosebud faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Rosebud has a diverse workforce consisting of both white and blue-collar jobs. The construction sector is notably prominent with an unemployment rate of 6.1% and an estimated employment growth of 3.0% in the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of December 2025, there are 6,482 residents employed while the unemployment rate stands at 7.1%, which is 2.3 percentage points higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

The workforce participation rate in Rosebud is significantly lower at 52.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. Based on Census responses, 18.8% of residents work from home, with Covid-19 lockdown impacts considered. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Rosebud shows strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.8% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 3.0%, while labour force increased by 2.3%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded an employment growth of 2.4% and a labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rosebud's employment mix indicates a potential local employment increase of 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though it should be noted that this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Rosebud is below the national average. The median income is $43,740 and the average income stands at $59,229. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Rosebud would be approximately $47,948 (median) and $64,927 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Rosebud all fall between the 12th and 14th percentiles nationally. Income brackets show that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 28.1% of the community (4,277 individuals), which aligns with the metropolitan region where this cohort also represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Rosebud, with only 81.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 11th percentile.

Rosebud is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Rosebud's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.7% houses and 11.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Rosebud was at 42.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.1% and rented ones at 27.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,755, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure in Rosebud was $350, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Rosebud's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Rosebud features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.9% of all households, including 21.0% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.1%, with lone person households at 33.5% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Rosebud shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 16.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (29.4%). Educational participation is high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 9.7% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rosebud has 30 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that together offer 447 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically living 1153 meters away from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential region, most residents commute outside of Rosebud, with cars being the primary mode of transportation at 96%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 18.8% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 63 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Rosebud is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Rosebud faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age cohorts exhibit high prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is relatively low in Rosebud at approximately 50% of the total population (~7,657 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.9%) and mental health issues (10.1%). Only 58.6% of residents claim to be completely free of medical ailments, lower than Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Rosebud has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (31.8%, or 4,841 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, they generally align with national rankings for the general population.

Rosebud ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Rosebud's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.6% of its population being citizens born in Australia who speak English only at home (as of a specific date). Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 44.9% of Rosebud's population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented in Rosebud compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 0.1% versus 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.5%, substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%), Australian (29.2%, substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%), and Irish (8.9%). Other ethnic groups with notable divergences included Macedonian (0.3% in Rosebud versus 0.7% regionally), Hungarian (0.3% in both Rosebud and regionally), and Dutch (1.5% in Rosebud versus 1.2% regionally).

Rosebud hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Rosebud has a median age of 49, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and also above the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 years are particularly prominent at 12.4%, while those aged 25-34 years make up a smaller proportion at 9.0% compared to Greater Melbourne. This concentration of those aged 75-84 is well above the national figure of 6.1%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the percentage of the population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 10.6% to 12.4%, while the percentage of those aged 25 to 34 has declined from 10.1% to 9.0%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Rosebud's age structure. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 40%, reaching 2,641 people from 1,887. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 77% of total population growth, reflecting Rosebud's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the age cohorts of 25 to 34 years and 0 to 4 years are expected to experience population declines.