Balnarring

Population growth drivers in Balnarring are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Balnarring's population is estimated at around 2,390 people. This figure reflects an increase of 19 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 2,371. The current estimate is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of resident population data, based on the latest ERP release by ABS (June 2024), and additional new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 87 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Balnarring has shown resilient growth with a compound annual growth rate of 0.9%, outperforming its SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 55% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 for areas not covered by ABS data. Applying these projections, Balnarring is expected to have an above median population growth by 2041, increasing by 395 persons to a total of 2,785, reflecting a 16.8% increase over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Balnarring, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Balnarring has recorded approximately one residential property granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, around seven homes were approved, with no approvals yet in FY-26. On average, 3.7 new residents arrive per dwelling constructed annually over these five financial years.

This significant demand exceeding supply typically results in price growth and increased buyer competition. The average value of new homes being built is $729,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, there have been $3.8 million in commercial approvals, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Balnarring records markedly lower building activity, 89.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties, though development activity has picked up in recent periods.

This is similarly under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 1196 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Balnarring is expected to grow by 402 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Balnarring has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely impacting the area. Key projects include Peninsula Sands Estate, Mornington Peninsula Residential Development Program, Western Port Marine Infrastructure, and Stony Point Line Service Improvements. The following details projects likely to have the most relevance.

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The employment environment in Balnarring shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Balnarring has an educated workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.9% as of June 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.1%. As of June 2025, 1,200 residents were employed with a workforce participation rate of 60.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries include construction, healthcare & social assistance, and education & training. Construction had particularly high levels at 1.5 times the regional average, while transport, postal & warehousing was under-represented at 1.5% of Balnarring's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.2%.

The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.8 in the Census year, indicating above-normal local employment opportunities. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 4.1%, labour force grew by 4.9%, and unemployment rose by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5%, labour force expansion of 4.0%, and an unemployment increase of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Balnarring's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Balnarring had a median taxpayer income of $56,343 and an average of $78,533 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. These figures are significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. By September 2025, based on a 12.16% increase since financial year 2022 using the Wage Price Index, estimated incomes would be approximately $63,194 (median) and $88,083 (average). The 2021 Census shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Balnarring are around the 60th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate that 28.6% of Balnarring's population falls within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, which is consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region where 32.8% fall into the same category. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power in the area. Balnarring's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Balnarring is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Balnarring's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.6% houses and 4.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Balnarring stood at 50.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.4% and rented ones at 8.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,989. Median weekly rent in Balnarring was $480, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Balnarring's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher at $480 compared to the national figure of $375.

Balnarring features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.3% of all households, including 33.9% couples with children, 34.4% couples without children, and 8.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 21.5% and group households comprising 0.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Balnarring shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Balnarring, educational attainment is notably high. Among residents aged 15 and above, 36.6% have university qualifications, surpassing the SA4 region's 23.5% and the SA3 area's 25.0%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 26.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 36.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas at 14.2% and certificates at 22.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 3.7% in tertiary education. Balnarring Primary School serves the local community, with an enrollment of 351 students as of a recent report. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates four active public transport stops in Balnarring. These are mixed-use bus stops, served by one route collectively offering 238 weekly passenger trips. Residents' access to transport is limited, with an average distance of 732 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 34 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 59 weekly trips per individual stop.

Balnarring's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows relatively positive outcomes for Balnarring residents.

Prevalence of common health conditions is quite low across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 58% of the total population (1,381 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.6 and 7.3% of residents respectively. 69.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.9% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2021, 27.7% of residents are aged 65 and over (662 people), which is lower than the 29.9% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Balnarring is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Balnarring, as per the data, exhibited lower cultural diversity with 85.5% of its population born in Australia, 90.3% being citizens, and 97.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 40.3% of people in Balnarring. The most notable overrepresentation was seen in Judaism, which constituted 0.1% of the population compared to 0.2% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (34.3%), Australian (28.7%), and Irish (10.9%). There were also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Scottish was overrepresented at 10.6% compared to 9.0% regionally, Welsh at 0.9% versus 0.6%, and Polish at 1.0% versus 0.6%.

Balnarring hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Balnarring is 46 years, which is notably higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and also exceeds the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 65-74 age cohort is significantly over-represented in Balnarring at 14.7%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 5.3%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.9% to 9.7%, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 13.5% to 14.7%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has declined from 6.6% to 5.3%, and the 5 to 14 age group dropped from 14.1% to 12.9%. Population forecasts for Balnarring in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes, with the 75 to 84 age cohort projected to grow by 148 people (64%), from 231 to 380. This aging population trend is evident, as those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 78% of the projected growth. Conversely, the 25 to 34 and 35 to 44 age cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.