Balnarring

Population growth drivers in Balnarring are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of the suburb of Balnarring as of Feb 2026 is around 2,338. This reflects a decrease of 33 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,371. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,330 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 85 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Balnarring has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.9%, outpacing the SA4 region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 55% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for the suburb of Balnarring, with an expected increase of 403 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 19.5% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Balnarring, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Balnarring recorded approximately one residential property granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, about five homes were approved, with none so far in FY-26.

This results in an average of 5.2 new residents arriving per year per dwelling constructed during this period. Consequently, demand significantly exceeds new supply, leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction value of new homes is $729,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Balnarring has substantially reduced construction levels, 92.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. Nationally, this level is also below average, suggesting possible planning constraints due to the area's maturity. By 2041, Balnarring is projected to grow by 455 residents according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Balnarring has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely to impact the region: Peninsula Sands Estate, Mornington Peninsula Residential Development Program, Western Port Marine Infrastructure, and Stony Point Line Service Improvements are key projects, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Balnarring shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Balnarring has a well-educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.4%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.7%.

As of September 2025, 1,198 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.2% and workforce participation at 65.0%. A high proportion (31.3%) work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction is particularly strong with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing has lower representation at 1.5% versus the regional average of 5.2%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.8, indicating ample local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 2.7%, while labour force grew by a similar rate, with unemployment remaining stable. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Balnarring's industry mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.2% in five years and 13.0% in ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, the suburb of Balnarring's median income among taxpayers is $56,343. The average income in Balnarring was $78,533 during this period. Nationally, these figures are high compared to the Greater Melbourne median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since June 2023, current estimates for Balnarring would be approximately $60,991 (median) and $85,012 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Balnarring cluster around the 60th percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows that 28.6% of locals (668 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket. This pattern is similar to metropolitan regions where 32.8% occupy this range. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Balnarring is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Balnarring's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.6% houses and 4.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Balnarring stood at 50.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.4% and rented ones at 8.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Weekly rent median in Balnarring was $480, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Balnarring's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Balnarring features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 77.3% of all households, including 33.9% couples with children, 34.4% couples without children, and 8.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 21.5% and group households comprising 0.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which matches the average for Greater Melbourne.

Balnarring shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Balnarring's educational attainment significantly exceeds broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15 and above, 36.6% hold university qualifications, compared to 23.5% in the SA4 region and 25.0% in the SA3 area. This high level of educational attainment positions the area well for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 26.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%).

Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 36.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 14.2% and certificates for 22.7%. Educational participation is notably high in Balnarring, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Balnarring has four active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by one route in total, offering 147 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport access is limited, with residents usually located 732 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most residents commute outward, primarily using cars (95%). On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm. Notably, 31.3% of residents work from home, a figure possibly influenced by COVID-19 conditions in 2021 Census data.

Buses run an average of 21 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

Balnarring's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Balnarring's health outcomes show excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups. Private health cover is high at approximately 58% of the total population, around 1,351 people. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.6%) and mental health issues (7.3%). Most residents (69.6%) report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Balnarring has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 29% (678 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are strong, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Balnarring is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Balnarring, as per data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2021, showed lower cultural diversity with 85.5% of its population born in Australia and 90.3% being citizens. English was spoken exclusively at home by 97.0%. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 40.3%.

Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%. In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (34.3%), Australian (28.7%), and Irish (10.9%). These figures exceeded regional averages respectively by 14.2%, 10.3%, and 0.5%. Other ethnicities with notable divergences included Scottish at 10.6% (vs 5.6%) and Welsh at 0.9% (vs 0.4%), both overrepresented in Balnarring compared to regional averages.

Balnarring hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Balnarring's median age is 47 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group comprises 15.2% of Balnarring's population, compared to Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 4.9%. This 65-74 concentration is higher than the national average of 9.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group grew from 7.9% to 10.3%, and the 65-74 cohort increased from 13.5% to 15.2%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 6.6% to 4.9%, and the 5-14 group dropped from 14.1% to 12.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Balnarring's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 57%, adding 136 residents to reach 377. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 74% of population growth, indicating demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 25-34 and 0-4 age cohorts.