Balnarring

Population growth drivers in Balnarring are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Balnarring's estimated population is around 2,337. This reflects a decrease of 34 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,371. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of resident population at 2,333 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release (June 2024) and validation of five new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 85 persons per square kilometer in Balnarring. Over the past decade, Balnarring has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.9%, outpacing its SA4 region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 55% during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 and adjusts employing a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for Balnarring statistical area (Lv2), with the area expected to increase by 396 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 19.5% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Balnarring, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Balnarring has had approximately one residential property approved each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around five homes were approved, with none so far in FY26.

This results in an average of 5.2 new residents arriving per dwelling constructed annually over these years. Given this demand significantly exceeds new supply, it typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction value of new homes is $729,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

Comparatively, Balnarring has substantially reduced construction levels when measured against Greater Melbourne, at 92.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. Nationally, this level is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Looking ahead, Balnarring is projected to grow by 456 residents by 2041, according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Balnarring has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting the region: Peninsula Sands Estate, Mornington Peninsula Residential Development Program, Western Port Marine Infrastructure, and Stony Point Line Service Improvements are key projects, with the following list focusing on those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Balnarring shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Balnarring has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 2.5%, with estimated employment growth of 2.8% over the past year (AreaSearch data).

As of September 2025, 1,193 residents are employed at a 2.2% lower unemployment rate than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation is 60.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction has strong specialization with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level (25.8% vs.

17.2%), while transport, postal & warehousing shows lower representation at 1.5%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.8, indicating local employment opportunities above average. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 2.8% while labour force grew by 2.8%, with unemployment remaining stable (AreaSearch analysis). In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year (adding 41,950 jobs), with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Balnarring's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The latest postcode level ATO data from AreaSearch for financial year 2023 shows Balnarring's median income among taxpayers is $56,343. The average income is $78,533. Nationally, these figures are high compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $60,991 (median) and $85,012 (average). The 2021 Census reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Balnarring cluster around the 60th percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows that 28.6% of locals (668 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to the metropolitan region where 32.8% fall within this range. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Balnarring is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Balnarring's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.6% houses and 4.4% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Balnarring was 50.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.4% and rented ones at 8.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne's average of $1,989. Median weekly rent was $480, compared to Melbourne's $380. Nationally, Balnarring's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Balnarring features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.3% of all households, including 33.9% couples with children, 34.4% couples without children, and 8.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 21.5% and group households comprising 0.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.4.

Balnarring shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Balnarring's educational attainment exceeds broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 36.6% have university qualifications compared to 23.5% in the SA4 region and 25.0% in the SA3 area. Bachelor degrees are most common at 26.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 36.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (14.2%) and certificates (22.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates four active public transport stops in Balnarring, all of which are bus routes. These stops are served by one route collectively offering 147 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited with residents typically located 732 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 21 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

Balnarring's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Balnarring residents show favourable health outcomes with low prevalence rates for common conditions across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 58% of Balnarring's total population (~1,351 people) has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 8.6% of residents) and mental health issues (7.3%), while 69.6% report being free from medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne's 63.9%. Balnarring has 27.6% of residents aged 65 and over (645 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 29.9%. Health outcomes among seniors in Balnarring are notably strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Balnarring is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Balnarring, surveyed in 2016, had a population where 85.5% were born in Australia and 90.3% were citizens. English was the home language for 97.0%. Christianity was the dominant religion at 40.3%.

Judaism, at 0.1%, was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.2%. Top ancestry groups were English (34.3%), Australian (28.7%), and Irish (10.9%). Scottish (10.6%) and Welsh (0.9%) were notably overrepresented, while Polish (1.0%) was also higher than regional averages.

Balnarring hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Balnarring is 46 years, which is notably higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and also exceeds the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne's average, the proportion of people aged 65-74 in Balnarring is significantly higher at 14.7%, while those aged 25-34 are underrepresented at 5.3%. This concentration of people aged 65-74 is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of people aged 75 to 84 has grown from 7.9% to 9.6%, while those aged 65 to 74 increased from 13.5% to 14.7%. Conversely, the proportion of people aged 25 to 34 has declined from 6.6% to 5.3%, and the proportion of those aged 5 to 14 has dropped from 14.1% to 12.8%. Population forecasts for Balnarring indicate significant demographic changes by 2041. The number of people aged 75 to 84 is projected to grow significantly, increasing by 156 people (70%) from 224 to 381. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising 76% of the projected growth. Conversely, the populations aged 25-34 and 35-44 are expected to decline.