Flinders

Population growth drivers in Flinders are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Flinders's population is around 6,084 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 89 people (1.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,995 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,065 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 21 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Flinders's 1.5% growth since the census positions it within 2.2 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.7%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to grow by 412 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 6.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Flinders recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Flinders has seen around 38 new homes approved each year, with 193 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 20 so far in FY-26. At an average of just 1 new resident per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new homes are being built at an average value of $1,553,000, revealing that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Additionally, $28.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Flinders has slightly more development (24.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. Further, new construction has been completely comprised of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 202 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

Population forecasts indicate Flinders will gain 393 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Flinders has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 43rdth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 36 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Rosebud Hospital Advocacy Campaign, the Jetty Road Overpass (Cancelled), the Rosebud Foreshore Redevelopment, and the Rosebud Plaza Shopping Centre Redevelopment, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Flinders performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Flinders possesses a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 0.8%, and 2.0% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 3,156 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 4.0% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation lags significantly (59.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a high 40.7% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical. The area has a particular employment specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 11.4 times the regional level. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing is under-represented, with only 1.8% of the Flinders workforce compared to 5.2% in Greater Melbourne. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of the Census working population relative to the local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.0% and the labour force increased by 1.6%, resulting in unemployment falling by 0.3 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, and unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Flinders. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Flinders's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

The Flinders SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $52,589 and an average of $116,293 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is among the top percentile nationally, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $56,928 (median) and $125,887 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Flinders, between the 77th and 78th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 28.3% of the community (1,721 individuals), mirroring the metropolitan region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Economic strength emerges through 36.8% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 91.0% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Flinders is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Flinders, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 98.7% houses and 1.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Flinders was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 59.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (28.6%) or rented (11.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Melbourne metro average at $2,244, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $424, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Flinders's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Flinders has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 76.0% of all households, comprising 27.3% couples with children, 41.4% couples without children, and 6.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.0%, with lone person households at 22.9% and group households comprising 1.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Flinders exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Flinders significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 23.5% in the SA4 region and 25.0% in the SA3 area. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 28.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.2%) and graduate diplomas (4.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 28.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.8%) and certificates (16.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.4% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 12 active transport stops operating within Flinders, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 1 individual route, collectively providing 40 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 2381 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 90%, with 8% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 2.0 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 40.7% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 5 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 3 weekly trips per individual stop.

Flinders's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Flinders, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 78% of the total population (4,775 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be arthritis and asthma, impacting 9.9% and 7.2% of residents, respectively, while 67.3% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 40.2% of residents aged 65 and over (2,444 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Flinders is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Flinders was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 84.4% of its population born in Australia, 89.4% being citizens, and 96.7% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Flinders is Christianity, which makes up 40.5% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.6% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Flinders are English, comprising 36.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 24.5% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Scottish, comprising 11.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 5.6%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Irish is notably overrepresented at 10.8% of Flinders (vs 6.5% regionally), French at 0.6% (vs 0.5%) and Dutch at 1.4% (vs 1.2%).

Flinders ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

With a median age of 56, Flinders is notably exceeding the Greater Melbourne figure of 37 and is well above the 38-year national average. The 65 - 74 age group shows strong representation at 21.4% compared to Greater Melbourne, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 4.6%. This 65 - 74 concentration is well above the national 9.5%. Following the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.6% to 14.4% of the population, while the 85+ cohort increased from 2.8% to 4.4%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.2% to 10.2% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 20.0% to 18.8%. Demographic modeling suggests Flinders's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 85+ age cohort is projected to more than double, expanding by 352 people (133%) from 265 to 618. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 98% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 cohorts.