Mansfield (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Mansfield are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Mansfield's population is around 12,423 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,906 people (18.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,517 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,146 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 308 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3.2 persons per square kilometer. Mansfield's 18.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (6.8%) and the Rest of Vic., marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 65.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, making adjustments employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to shrink by 723 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 25 to 34 age group, which is projected to increase by 182 people.

The level of residential development activity in Mansfield was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Mansfield has received approximately 103 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 518 homes. Up to FY26, 45 approvals have been recorded. On average, each new dwelling accommodates about 2.8 residents per year, indicating strong demand for housing in Mansfield between FY21 and FY25. The average construction cost of these dwellings is around $423,000, suggesting a focus on premium properties by developers.

In the current financial year, there have been $27.1 million worth of commercial approvals, showing moderate levels of commercial development in Mansfield. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Mansfield has slightly higher development activity, with 18.0% more approvals per person over the past five years, which helps maintain good buyer choice and supports existing property values. However, construction activity has recently decreased.

The majority of new building activity consists of detached dwellings (95.0%), with townhouses or apartments making up the remaining 5.0%, preserving Mansfield's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. There are approximately 139 people per dwelling approval in Mansfield, indicating an expanding market. Despite stable or declining population forecasts, Mansfield may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Mansfield has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 14 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Mansfield District Hospital Residential Aged Care Development, Mansfield Common, Mansfield Station Precinct Activation Project, and Alpine Estate Mansfield. The following details projects expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Mansfield maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Mansfield has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of 2.7% as of September 2025. It has 5,558 residents in work, with an unemployment rate 1.1% lower than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation is on par with Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%.

According to Census responses, 18.0% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in construction, accommodation & food, and retail trade. Mansfield has a particular employment specialization in accommodation & food, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 10.2% versus the regional average of 16.8%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population to local population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Mansfield's labour force decreased by 1.3%, while employment declined by 2.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Mansfield's employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.4% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Mansfield's employment mix.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The Mansfield SA2 had an income level below the national average according to AreaSearch data from the ATO for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $44,334 and the average income stood at $60,310. This compares to figures for Rest of Vic., which were $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $47,992 (median) and $65,286 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all ranked modestly in Mansfield, between the 22nd and 32nd percentiles. The earnings profile showed that the predominant cohort spanned 30.2% of locals (3,751 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, mirroring regional levels where 30.3% occupied this bracket. Housing costs were modest with 87.2% of income retained. However, total disposable income ranked at just the 27th percentile nationally and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Mansfield is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Mansfield, as assessed in the latest Census, 95.0% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 5.1% comprising semi-detached properties, apartments, and other types. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mansfield stood at 49.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 16.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Weekly rent in Mansfield was $320 compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Mansfield's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,500 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower at $320 compared to the national figure of $375.

Mansfield has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.0% of all households, including 23.2% couples with children, 36.6% couples without children, and 8.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.0%, with lone person households at 29.8% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Mansfield performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 22.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (29.0%). Educational participation is high, with 29.1% currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.7% in primary, 10.4% in secondary, and 2.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 10.4% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Mansfield indicates that there are 19 active transport stops currently operating within the area. These stops are served by two individual routes combined, offering a total of 26 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these transport services is rated as limited, with residents typically residing an average distance of 4210 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential region, most residents commute outward for work purposes. The car remains the primary mode of transportation for these residents, used by 85% of them, while walking accounts for 12%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling in Mansfield, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census data, 18% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages out to approximately three trips per day, resulting in about one weekly trip per individual stop.

Mansfield's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data for Mansfield shows positive outcomes overall, aligning with national benchmarks. Common health conditions are low across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is relatively low at 49%, compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (9.4%) and mental health issues (7.5%), while 67% report being free from medical ailments, higher than Rest of Vic's 63.4%. Under-65s have better-than-average health outcomes. Mansfield has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65+ at 25.2%, compared to Rest of Vic's 23.5%. Senior health outcomes are above average and rank nationally higher than the general population.

Mansfield is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Mansfield's population, as per the 2016 Census, was predominantly Australian-born and English-speaking, with 87.8% being citizens, 87.5% born in Australia, and 95.3% speaking only English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 44.0% of Mansfield's population. However, Judaism was slightly overrepresented compared to the rest of Victoria, with 0.2% of Mansfield's population identifying as Jewish, versus 0.1%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (31.8%), Australian (29.3%), and Irish (10.7%). Notably, Scottish ancestry was overrepresented in Mansfield at 9.8%, compared to 8.8% regionally; Dutch ancestry was slightly higher at 1.8% versus 1.7%; and German ancestry was also somewhat more prevalent at 4.0% compared to the regional average of 3.5%.

Mansfield hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Mansfield's median age at 47 years is significantly higher than the Rest of Vic average of 43 and exceeds the national average of 38 by a substantial margin. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, comprising 15.0% of the population, which is well above the national average of 9.4%. Conversely, the 35-44 age group makes up only 10.6%, smaller than in Rest of Vic. Since 2021, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 9.2% to 11.5%, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 9.4% to 10.5%. However, the 55 to 64 age group has declined from 16.4% to 14.5%. By 2041, Mansfield's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 32%, reaching 381 people from 289. This growth will be led by those aged 65 and above, comprising all of the projected population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 25 to 34 age cohorts.