Mansfield (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Mansfield are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Mansfield's population is around 12,429 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,912 people (18.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,517 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,146 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 322 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 3.2 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Mansfield's 18.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (6.9%) and the Rest of Vic., marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 65.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to contract by 723 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 25 to 34 age group, which is projected to increase by 182 people. See the age section for more details.

The level of residential development activity in Mansfield was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Mansfield has experienced around 103 dwellings receiving development approval each year, totalling 518 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 45 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 2.8 new residents per year gained for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), reflecting robust demand that underpins property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $423,000, showing that developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. Additionally, $27.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

Relative to the Rest of Vic., Mansfield has slightly more development (18.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand, though building activity has slowed in recent years. New building activity shows 95.0% standalone homes and 5.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 139 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, Mansfield may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Mansfield has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 14 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Mansfield District Hospital Residential Aged Care Development, Mansfield Common, the Mansfield Station Precinct Activation Project, and Alpine Estate Mansfield, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Mansfield demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Mansfield features a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of just 2.8%. As of December 2025, 5,538 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.9% below Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. Based on Census responses, a moderate 18.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include construction, accommodation & food, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in the accommodation & food sector, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 10.2% versus the regional average of 16.8%. While local employment opportunities exist, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of the Census working population relative to the local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 3.3% combined with employment decreasing by 4.3%, resulting in the unemployment rate rising by 1.0 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6%, a labour force decline of 0.7%, and unemployment falling by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Mansfield. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Mansfield's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.4% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Mansfield SA2 is below the national average, with the median assessed at $44,334 while the average income stands at $60,310. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $47,992 (median) and $65,286 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Mansfield, between the 22nd and 32nd percentiles. Looking at income distribution, the largest segment comprises 30.2% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (3,753 residents), mirroring the broader area where 30.3% occupy this bracket. While housing costs are modest with 87.2% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 27th percentile nationally and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Mansfield is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Mansfield, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 95.0% houses and 5.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Mansfield was well beyond that of Regional Vic., at 49.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (33.5%) or rented (16.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Regional Vic. average at $1,500, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $320, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Mansfield's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Mansfield has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 68.0% of all households, comprising 23.2% couples with children, 36.6% couples without children, and 8.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.0%, with lone person households at 29.8% and group households comprising 2.0% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Mansfield performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (22.3%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (29.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 10.4% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 19 active transport stops operating within Mansfield. These stops are serviced by 2 individual routes, collectively providing 26 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 4210 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 85%, with 12% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 18.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 3 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 1 weekly trips per individual stop.

Mansfield's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for Mansfield residents. AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions shows results broadly in line with national benchmarks, with the prevalence of common health conditions remaining low across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~6,115 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.4% and 7.5% of residents, respectively. Meanwhile, 67.0% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 24.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,098 people), and health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Mansfield is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Mansfield was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 87.8% of its population being citizens, 87.5% born in Australia, and 95.3% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Mansfield is Christianity, which makes up 44.0% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Judaism, which comprises 0.2% of the population, compared to 0.1% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Mansfield are English, comprising 31.8% of the population, Australian, comprising 29.3% of the population, and Irish, comprising 10.7% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Scottish is notably overrepresented at 9.8% of Mansfield (vs 8.8% regionally), Dutch at 1.8% (vs 1.7%) and German at 4.0% (vs 3.5%).

Mansfield hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

At 47 years, Mansfield's median age is significantly above the Regional Vic. average of 43 as well as substantially exceeding the 38-year national average. The age profile shows 65 - 74 year-olds are particularly prominent (14.9%), while the 35 - 44 group is comparatively smaller (10.9%) than in Regional Vic.. This 65 - 74 concentration is well above the national 9.5%. In the period since 2021, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 9.2% to 11.8% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 9.4% to 10.8%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 16.4% to 14.1% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 12.9% to 11.8%. By 2041, Mansfield is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 33% (93 people), reaching 381 from 287. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those 65+ comprising 100% of projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 25 to 34 cohorts.