Kinglake

Population growth drivers in Kinglake are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the population of the Kinglake statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at approximately 1,852 people. This figure represents an increase of 190 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,662. The current resident population estimate of 1,848 by AreaSearch is based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and validation of five new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 16.1 persons per square kilometer. Between the 2021 Census and November 2025, Kinglake's growth rate of 11.4% exceeded both the SA3 area average (2.8%) and the national average, positioning it as a notable growth leader in the region. The primary driver of population growth in the Kinglake (SA2) has been natural growth, contributing approximately 57% of overall population gains during recent periods.

However, all factors including interstate migration and overseas migration have been positive contributors to growth. AreaSearch is employing ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, for areas covered by this data. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilizes the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Based on these aggregated SA2-level projections, the Kinglake (SA2) is forecasted to experience significant demographic shifts, with an expected increase of 508 persons by 2041. This projected gain represents a total increase of 21.8% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kinglake according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Kinglake recorded around 12 residential properties granted approval per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 61 homes. As of FY-26 so far, 1 approval has been recorded. This results in approximately 1.5 new residents per year per dwelling constructed on average between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand creating stable market conditions. The average construction value of new homes is $560,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

In this financial year, $6.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Kinglake shows 202.0% higher construction activity per person. However, recent construction activity has eased recently. All development so far has comprised standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

This results in around 316 people per approval in Kinglake, reflecting a transitioning market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Kinglake is expected to grow by 403 residents through to 2041, with building activity keeping pace with growth projections despite potential heightened competition as the population grows.

Kinglake has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified zero projects potentially impacting this region. Notable initiatives include North East Link - Connections, North East Link - Tolling Services Package, North East Link - Early Works, and Inland Rail Beveridge to Albury. The following details those most relevant.

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The employment landscape in Kinglake shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Kinglake has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.9% and estimated employment growth of 0.5% in the past year (AreaSearch data).

As of September 2025998 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.7%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation is at par with Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment sectors are construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employs 2.1 times the regional average, while professional & technical jobs account for just 4.9%, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparison of working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.5% and labour force by 0.2%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points (AreaSearch analysis). In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment increase by 0.3%. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kinglake's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch reported median taxpayer income in Kinglake suburb at $50,881 for financial year 2023. Average income was $63,744. National averages were higher at $57,688 and $75,164 respectively for Greater Melbourne. By September 2025, estimated median and average incomes in Kinglake are approximately $55,079 and $69,003 based on 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Kinglake's household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly at the 47th to 49th percentiles in the 2021 Census. Income distribution showed 38.5% (713 individuals) earned between $1,500 - 2,999, similar to surrounding regions at 32.8%. After housing costs, 85.4% of income remained for other expenses. Kinglake's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Kinglake is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Kinglake's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 99.2% houses and 0.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 93.9% houses and 6.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kinglake was at 35.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.2% and rented ones at 5.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent figure in Kinglake was $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $431. Nationally, Kinglake's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kinglake has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.7% of all households, including couples with children at 32.1%, couples without children at 31.9%, and single parent families at 9.2%. Non-family households make up the remaining 26.3%, consisting of lone person households at 23.7% and group households at 2.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Kinglake performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

In the area, university qualification rates are lower than the Greater Melbourne average, at 18.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common among those with university qualifications, at 11.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 48.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (14.3%) and certificates (34.6%). Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.5% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kinglake has three active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with one route providing service to all stops collectively offering 146 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility in Kinglake is rated as limited, with residents typically located 1242 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 20 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 48 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kinglake is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Kinglake faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 52% of the total population (~964 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area rate of 60.9%.

Mental health issues impact 10.7% of residents, while asthma affects 8.2%. A total of 67.6% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.6% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 16.7% of residents aged 65 and over (309 people), lower than the 19.2% in Greater Melbourne.

Kinglake is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Kinglake, as per the census conducted on 29 August 2016, showed a cultural diversity below average. The population was predominantly Australian citizens (90.9%), born in Australia (89.9%), and speaking English only at home (96.8%). Christianity was the main religion, accounting for 30.3% of Kinglake's population.

Notably, the 'Other' religious category comprised 1.4%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 0.5%. In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (32.8%), Australian (30.4%), and Irish (8.9%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Hungarian was overrepresented at 0.5% compared to the region's 0.3%, French at 0.8% versus 0.5%, and Dutch at 1.7% against 1.5%.

Kinglake hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Kinglake is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 55-64 are most prominent at 16.1%, while those aged 25-34 make up only 9.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 3.2% to 4.9%, and the 65 to 74 cohort has increased from 9.7% to 10.8%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 17.5% to 15.4%, and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 12.5% to 11.0%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Kinglake's age structure. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 105 people (116%) from 90 to 196. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 56% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 age cohort is projected to decline by 2 people.