Kinglake

Population growth drivers in Kinglake are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The estimated population of the suburb of Kinglake is around 1,873 as of May 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 211 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,662 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and seven validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 16.3 persons per square kilometer. Kinglake's growth rate of 12.7% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (1.8%) and the state, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 56.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including interstate migration and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, the suburb is expected to increase by 549 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 29.3% in total over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kinglake recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Kinglake has recorded approximately 12 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 62 homes. In FY-26 so far, 2 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.1 new residents are associated with each home built annually between FY-21 and FY-25.

Demand for housing is outpacing supply in Kinglake, which may put upward pressure on prices and increase competition among buyers. The average construction value of new homes is $560,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This financial year has seen $6.0 million in commercial approvals registered, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Kinglake shows 200.0% higher construction activity per person.

However, recent construction activity has eased. All development in Kinglake over this period has been standalone homes, maintaining its traditional low-density character and appealing to those seeking space, with around 304 people per approval. By 2041, Kinglake is expected to grow by approximately 549 residents (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Kinglake has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No factors affect a region's performance more than changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects include North East Link - Tolling Services Package, North East Link - Early Works, Inland Rail Beveridge to Albury, and Regional Housing Fund Projects. The following list outlines those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Kinglake shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Kinglake's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with construction being notably prominent. The unemployment rate stood at 4.5% in the past year, seeing a 2.7% employment growth. As of December 2025, 1,083 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, slightly below Greater Melbourne's 4.8%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne at 69.9%. About 21.7% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 impacts should be considered. Key employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employs 2.1 times the regional average, while professional & technical jobs are lower at 4.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Between December 2024 and 2025, employment levels increased by 2.7% and labour force grew by 3.1%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4%, labour force grow by 2.8%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kinglake's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.4% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Kinglake had a median income among taxpayers of $50,881. The average income stood at $63,744. This was lower than the national average and compared to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Kinglake would be approximately $55,776 (median) and $69,876 (average) as of March 2026. From the 2021 Census, household incomes ranked at the 47th percentile, family incomes at the 49th percentile, and personal incomes also ranked modestly in Kinglake. The data showed that 38.5% of the population (721 individuals) fell within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% occupied this bracket. After housing expenses, 85.4% of income remained for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Kinglake is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kinglake's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.2% houses and 0.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kinglake stood at 35.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.2% and rented ones at 5.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Weekly rent median was $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Kinglake's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower than the national figure of $375.

Kinglake has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 73.7% of all households, including 32.1% couples with children, 31.9% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.3%, with lone person households at 23.7% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Kinglake performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 18.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 48.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (14.3%) and certificates (34.6%). Educational participation is high at 28.9%, comprising primary education (11.5%), secondary education (8.4%), and tertiary education (2.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kinglake has three active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by one route collectively offering 146 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically located 1242 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Kinglake being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 97%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 21.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 20 trips per day, equating to approximately 48 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kinglake is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Kinglake faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~975 people), which lags slightly behind the average SA2 area rate of 56.7%, and compares to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. Mental health issues impact 10.7% of residents, while asthma affects 8.2%. Conversely, 67.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 17.5% of residents aged 65 and over (327 people), which is higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. National rankings for Kinglake are broadly in line with the general population.

Kinglake is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Kinglake's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 90.9% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (89.9%), and speaking English only at home (96.8%). Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 30.3% of Kinglake's population. However, the most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, which made up 1.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.8%), Australian (30.4%), and Irish (8.9%), all substantially higher than their respective regional averages of 20.1%, 18.4%, and not specified. Notably, Hungarian, French, and Dutch ethnicities were also overrepresented in Kinglake at 0.5%, 0.8%, and 1.7% respectively, compared to their regional averages of 0.3%, 0.5%, and 1.2%.

Kinglake hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Kinglake is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 55-64 are particularly prominent, making up 16.1% of the population, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 10.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 3.2% to 5.5%, and the 65 to 74 cohort has increased from 9.7% to 11.0%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 17.5% to 15.3%, and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 12.5% to 11.2%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Kinglake's age structure, with the 75 to 84 age cohort projected to rise substantially, expanding by 97 people (from 103 to 201).