Kinglake

Kinglake lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Kinglake's population is estimated at around 1,745, reflecting an increase of 83 people since the 2021 Census. The 2021 Census reported a population of 1,662 in the suburb. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population as 1,744, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), and an additional five validated new addresses since the Census date. Kinglake's population density is approximately 15.2 persons per square kilometer. Kinglake's growth rate of 5.0% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.3%. This increase was primarily driven by natural growth, contributing approximately 56.99999999999999% to overall population gains during recent periods.

However, all drivers including interstate migration and overseas migration were positive factors. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Considering projected demographic shifts, Kinglake is forecasted to experience significant population increase. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to gain 504 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 29.0% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Kinglake, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Kinglake has recorded around 10 residential properties granted approval per year over the past 5 financial years. This totals an estimated 50 homes. No approvals have been recorded so far in FY-26. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 1.9 people moved to the area for each dwelling built. However, this increased to 6.8 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, reflecting Kinglake's growing popularity.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $560,000. This financial year, $18.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Kinglake has 148.0% more development activity per person. Recent development has consisted entirely of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes.

The estimated count of people in the area per dwelling approval is 696. Future projections show Kinglake adding 506 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Kinglake has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified zero projects impacting this region. Notable initiatives include North East Link - Connections, North East Link - Tolling Services Package, North East Link - Early Works, and Inland Rail Beveridge to Albury.

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Employment performance in Kinglake has been broadly consistent with national averages

Kinglake's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. The construction sector stands out with a significant representation, contributing to an unemployment rate of 3.7%.

Over the past year, employment grew by an estimated 2.3%. As of June 2025, 1,018 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Kinglake is at 64.1%, on par with Greater Melbourne. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Construction employment is particularly high, at 2.1 times the regional level, while professional & technical jobs are lower at 4.9% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparisons between working population and resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 2.3%, while labour force grew by 1.6%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5%, labour force expand by 4.0%, and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kinglake's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Kinglake had a median income among taxpayers of $50,881. The average income stood at $63,744. This was just below the national average and compared to levels of $54,892 and $73,761 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $57,068 (median) and $71,495 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Kinglake, between the 47th and 49th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 38.5% of residents (671 people). After housing, 85.4% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Kinglake is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Kinglake's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 99.2% houses and 0.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 93.9% houses and 6.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kinglake was at 35.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.2% and rented ones at 5.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Kinglake was $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $431. Nationally, Kinglake's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kinglake has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 73.7% of all households, including 32.1% couples with children, 31.9% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.3%, with lone person households at 23.7% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Kinglake performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 18.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 48.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (14.3%) and certificates (34.6%). Educational participation is high at 28.9%, comprising 11.5% in primary, 8.4% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Kinglake Primary School serves the area with an enrollment of 76 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1017). It offers primary education only; secondary options are available nearby. Local school capacity is limited at 4.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.9, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kinglake has three active public transport stops operating, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are serviced by one route collectively providing 230 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically located 1242 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 32 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 76 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kinglake is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Kinglake faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 52%, covering about 908 people, which is lower than the average SA2 area and Greater Melbourne at 60.1%.

Mental health issues affect 10.7% of residents, while asthma impacts 8.2%. A total of 67.6% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.6% in Greater Melbourne. The area has 16.7%, or 291 people, aged 65 and over, which is lower than the 19.2% in Greater Melbourne. This aligns broadly with the general population's health profile.

Kinglake is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Kinglake has a lower-than-average cultural diversity, with 90.9% citizens, 89.9% born in Australia, and 96.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 30.3%. The 'Other' category is overrepresented at 1.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.5%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are English (32.8%), Australian (30.4%), and Irish (8.9%). Some ethnicities show notable differences: Hungarian (0.5% vs regional 0.3%), French (0.8% vs 0.5%), and Dutch (1.7% vs 1.5%) are overrepresented in Kinglake.

Kinglake hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Kinglake is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 55-64 are most prominent at 16.1%, while the 25-34 age group is smaller at 10.0% compared to Greater Melbourne. From 2021 to present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 3.2% to 4.9%, and the 65-74 cohort has increased from 9.7% to 10.8%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 17.5% to 15.4%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 12.5% to 11.0%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Kinglake's age structure. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow exceptionally by 110 people (129%) from 85 to 196. Meanwhile, the 0-4 age cohort grows modestly by 9% (9 people).