Kinglake

Population growth drivers in Kinglake are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the suburb of Kinglake is estimated at around 1,852 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 190 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,662 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 1,848 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 16.1 persons per square kilometer. Kinglake's growth of 11.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (2.8%) and the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth contributing approximately 57% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including interstate migration and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering these projections, the suburb is expected to increase its population by 519 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 27.8% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kinglake according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Kinglake shows approximately 12 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 62 homes. As of FY-26, one approval has been recorded. This results in an average of 1.5 new residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. The average construction value of new homes is $560,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

In this financial year, commercial approvals totalling $6.0 million have been registered, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Kinglake exhibits 205.0% higher construction activity per person. Recent development has consisted entirely of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space, at around 290 people per approval. Looking ahead, AreaSearch estimates Kinglake will grow by 515 residents through to 2041, potentially leading to increased buyer competition and price support if current development rates do not match population growth.

Looking ahead, Kinglake is expected to grow by 515 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Kinglake has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified zero projects expected to impact the area. Notable initiatives include North East Link - Connections, North East Link - Tolling Services Package, North East Link - Early Works, and Inland Rail Beveridge to Albury. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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The employment landscape in Kinglake shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Kinglake has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 4.4% and estimated employment growth of 0.6% in the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of December 2025999 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.4% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation is lower at 66.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Census responses show that 21.7% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employs 2.1 times the regional level, while professional & technical jobs account for only 4.9%, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

The area may have limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.6% and labour force grew by 1.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4%, labour force grow by 2.8%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, suggest potential future demand within Kinglake. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kinglake's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not consider localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch aggregated latest postcode-level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023. Kinglake's median taxpayer income was $50,881 and the average was $63,744. Nationally, median income was $57,688 and average was $75,164 in Greater Melbourne. With an 8.25% increase based on Wage Price Index growth since June 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $55,079 (median) and $69,003 (average). The 2021 Census ranked Kinglake's household, family and personal incomes modestly, between the 47th and 49th percentiles. In Kinglake, 38.5% of individuals (713 people) had income between $1,500 and $2,999. Post-housing, 85.4% of income remained for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Kinglake is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kinglake's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.2% houses and 0.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kinglake stood at 35.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.2% and rented ones at 5.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000, while the median weekly rent was $300, lower than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Kinglake's mortgage repayments were lower than Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kinglake has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 73.7% of all households, including 32.1% couples with children, 31.9% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.3%, with lone person households at 23.7% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which matches the Greater Melbourne average.

Kinglake performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 18.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 11.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (3.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 48.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (14.3%) and certificates (34.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kinglake has three active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by one route collectively providing 146 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited with residents typically located 1242 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Kinglake's primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 97%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 21.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 20 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 48 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kinglake is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Kinglake faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover stands at approximately 52% of the total population (~964 people), slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. Mental health issues impact 10.7% of residents, while asthma affects 8.2%. Conversely, 67.6% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Kinglake has 18.0% of residents aged 65 and over (333 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. National rankings for the area are broadly in line with the general population.

Kinglake is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Kinglake, surveyed in June 2016, had low cultural diversity: 90.9% were Australian citizens; 89.9% were born there; 96.8% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 30.3%. The 'Other' category was overrepresented at 1.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 2.3%.

In ancestry, Kinglake had high proportions of English (32.8%), Australian (30.4%), and Irish (8.9%) heritage, exceeding regional averages. Notably, Hungarian (0.5% vs 0.3%), French (0.8% vs 0.5%), and Dutch (1.7% vs 1.2%) groups were overrepresented.

Kinglake hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Kinglake as of 2021 is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 55-64 are particularly prominent, making up 15.9% of the population, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 9.8%. Between 2021 and the present day, the proportion of individuals aged 75-84 has grown from 3.2% to 5.9%, and those aged 65-74 have increased from 9.7% to 11.2%. Conversely, the proportion of individuals aged 45-54 has decreased from 17.5% to 15.2%, and those aged 5-14 have dropped from 12.5% to 10.8%. By the year 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Kinglake's age structure. The number of individuals aged 75-84 is projected to rise substantially by 99 people (a 91% increase) from 109 to 209. Meanwhile, the 15-24 cohort is expected to grow modestly by 4%, an increase of 8 people.