Tolland

Tolland is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Tolland's population is estimated at around 3,577 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 118 people (3.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,459 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,537 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 27 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,711 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Tolland has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.8%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 57.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a population increase just below the median of Australian non-metropolitan areas is expected, with the area expected to grow by 265 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall gain of 8.1% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tolland according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Tolland has averaged approximately 5 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 29 homes. So far in FY-26, 3 approvals have been recorded. This averages out to around 5.8 new residents per year for every home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating demand significantly outpacing supply. New homes are being constructed at an average value of $393,000.

There have also been $739,000 in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Tolland has significantly less development activity, 67.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Nationally, Tolland's level is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 50.0% detached houses and 50.0% attached dwellings, focusing on higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently 84.0% houses. At around 897 people per approval, Tolland shows a mature, established area with a population forecast indicating an increase of 290 residents by 2041 (latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate).

Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Tolland has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Three major projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area: Wagga Wagga Special Activation Precinct, Lake Albert Water Sports and Event Precinct, Riverina Intermodal Freight and Logistics (RiFL) Hub, and Wagga Wagga Health Service Redevelopment Stage 3. These are likely to be most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Tolland face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Tolland has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, an unemployment rate of 8.2%, and estimated employment growth of 1.7% in the past year (AreaSearch data). As of September 2025, 1,483 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 4.3%, higher than Rest of NSW's 3.8%.

Workforce participation is lower at 54.3% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing, with manufacturing notably concentrated at 1.7 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 2.1%, compared to 5.3% regionally. Local employment opportunities appear limited, as suggested by Census data on working population vs resident population.

Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 1.7% while labour force rose by 4.6%, leading to a 2.6 percentage point unemployment rate rise. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.5% and labour force decline by 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point unemployment rate increase. Statewide, NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) as of 25-Nov, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tolland's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Tolland is below national average. Median income is $44,972 and average income stands at $54,857. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where median income is $52,390 and average income is $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Tolland would be approximately $48,957 (median) and $59,717 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Tolland all fall between the 13th and 22nd percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 30.1% of population falls within $1,500 - $2,999 range, consistent with broader trends showing 29.9% in same category. After housing, 85.2% of income remains, ranking at the 16th percentile nationally.

Tolland is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Tolland's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.9% houses and 16.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Non-Metro NSW had 88.4% houses and 11.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tolland stood at 28.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.0% and rented ones at 44.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro NSW's $1,430. The median weekly rent in Tolland was $220, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $280. Nationally, Tolland's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tolland features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 66.7% of all households, including 24.5% couples with children, 24.8% couples without children, and 15.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.3%, with lone person households at 29.2% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 2.5 people, aligning with the Rest of NSW average.

Tolland faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.0%) and certificates (28.9%). Educational participation is high, with 33.3% currently enrolled in formal education: 12.1% in primary, 8.1% in secondary, and 2.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tolland has 25 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by a mix of buses running along 44 individual routes. Collectively, these routes facilitate 1,000 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 244 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 142 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 40 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tolland is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tolland faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 49% (around 1,741 people), compared to 51.5% in the rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, affecting 11.1% and 10.4% of residents respectively.

About 62.6% report being free from medical ailments, compared to 64.5% in the rest of NSW. The area has 17.7% (around 633 people) aged 65 and over, lower than the 19.6% in the rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Tolland records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Tolland's cultural diversity is above average, with 17.5% born overseas and 16.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tolland, accounting for 60.4%. The category 'Other' is notably higher at 5.4%, compared to Rest of NSW's 1.5%.

In ancestry, Australian (27.8%) and English (27.1%) are the top groups, while 'Other' stands at 11.2%, significantly higher than the regional average of 5.0%. Notably, Australian Aboriginal is overrepresented at 9.5% compared to the regional 4.5%, Filipino at 1.9% versus 0.6%, and Samoan at 0.3% against 0.1%.

Tolland hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Tolland's median age is 34, which is lower than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and Australia's median age of 38. The 25-34 cohort is over-represented in Tolland at 16.0%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while the 55-64 age group is under-represented at 8.7%. Between 2021 and now, the 15-24 age group has increased from 12.4% to 13.6% of Tolland's population. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 9.9% to 8.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Tolland's age profile. The 25-34 age group is projected to expand by 136 people (24%), from 572 to 709. Meanwhile, both the 55-64 and 65-74 age groups are expected to decrease in number.