Tumut

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tumut reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to the analysis by AreaSearch, the population of Tumut is approximately 6,619 as of May 2026. This represents a contraction of 48 individuals (0.7%) from the 2021 Census, which registered 6,667 people. The shift is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 6,609 and the addition of 131 validated new addresses post-Census. With this population level, the density ratio stands at 164 persons per square kilometer, indicating substantial space per inhabitant and potential capacity for subsequent development. Over the last ten years, Tumut has shown stable growth trends with a 0.3% compound annual growth rate, exceeding the SA3 area. Population expansion in the locality was chiefly fueled by overseas migration, which served as virtually the only source of population increases in recent times.

AreaSearch uses the ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, which were published in 2024 with 2022 as the anchor year. For any SA2 regions lacking this data, AreaSearch employs projections at the SA2 level from the NSW State Government, published in 2022 with 2021 as the anchor year. Growth rates segmented by age group from these datasets are likewise applied to all locations for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead at demographic patterns, growth in the lowest quartile of regional locations nationwide is expected, with the area projected to grow by 215 persons to 2041 using the most recent annual ERP statistics, representing a rise of 3.1% overall across the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Tumut, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Approximately 22 new residential dwellings have been approved annually in Tumut, with a total of 111 dwellings approved during the last 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25) and 23 registered so far in FY-26. Despite the area experiencing a drop in population, building activity has remained relatively sufficient, which is beneficial for buyers, with new dwellings being constructed at an average cost of $357,000. Furthermore, commercial approvals worth $42.3 million have been recorded in the current financial year, highlighting strong local commercial activity.

Compared to the Rest of NSW, Tumut exhibits equivalent levels of development (per capita), preserving a market equilibrium that aligns with the wider region. This sits below the national average, reflecting the maturity of the local market and suggesting potential planning limitations. New construction activity is dominated by standalone homes at 94.0%, while medium and high-density options account for 6.0%, preserving the conventional low-density profile of the area with an emphasis on family residences that attract buyers wanting space. The region has about 346 people for every dwelling approval, pointing to a low-density market landscape.

Demographic projections indicate that Tumut will add 205 inhabitants by 2041 (derived from the most recent quarterly estimate by AreaSearch). With current construction paces, the supply of new housing is expected to easily satisfy demand, creating favorable buying conditions and potentially encouraging expansion beyond existing population forecasts.

Tumut has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Very few factors impact local performance as much as modifications to regional infrastructure, key projects, and planning developments. In total, 3 projects have been tracked by AreaSearch that are expected to influence the region. Important developments include the Tumut Hospital Redevelopment, the Tumut Aerodrome Infrastructure Upgrade Stage 2, the Tumut River Works Program, and HumeLink, with the detailed list below outlining those of greatest relevance.

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The employment landscape in Tumut presents a mixed picture: unemployment remains low at 3.8%, yet recent job losses have affected its comparative national standing

Tumut possesses a diverse labor force encompassing both white and blue-collar roles, with a strong industrial and manufacturing presence, and an unemployment rate standing at just 3.8%. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 2,995, while the unemployment rate was 0.3% lower than the Regional NSW figure of 4.1%, and the participation rate was somewhat low (57.8% relative to 60.6% in Regional NSW). Census statistics show that a minor 5.7% of the workforce operated from home, though the influence of Covid-19 restrictions should be kept in mind.

The primary employment sectors for residents are manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The locality displays a particularly high concentration of manufacturing jobs, with employment levels reaching 2.7 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services have a minor footprint, accounting for 2.2% of employment compared to 5.1% across the region. Even though local job opportunities exist within the district, a significant number of residents appear to travel to other areas for work, based on the ratio of the Census working population to the local resident population.

AreaSearch's analysis of SALM and ABS statistics shows that the 12-month period experienced a 3.5% contraction in the labor force alongside a 3.3% drop in employment, which led to a 0.2 percentage point reduction in the unemployment rate. In comparison, Regional NSW saw employment decline by 0.9%, the labor force shrink by 0.4%, and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points. Future demand trends in Tumut can be further understood via the national employment projections from May-25 released by Jobs and Skills Australia. These projections, spanning five and ten-year horizons, have been aligned with the local industry profile to estimate employment growth. Although national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary widely across different industries. Applying these sector-specific forecasts to the employment distribution of Tumut suggests local jobs will rise by 5.4% over five years and 12.1% over ten years (note that this represents a basic weighted extrapolation for demonstration purposes and does not incorporate localized population forecasts).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The most recent postcode level ATO statistics from AreaSearch for financial year 2023 indicate that incomes in the Tumut SA2 are below the national average, with a median of $53,938 and an average of $64,595. This compares to a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215 in Regional NSW. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index rise of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates correspond to approximately $59,504 (median) and $71,261 (average) as of March 2026. According to Census data, household, family, and individual incomes in Tumut all sit between the 16th and 20th percentiles across the country. Distribution statistics indicate the largest cohort comprises 28.5% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (1,886 residents), matching trends in the region where 29.9% fall into this bracket. After accounting for housing costs, 86.4% of income is retained, placing this metric at just the 19th percentile nationwide.

Tumut is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The mix of housing in Tumut at the time of the latest Census consisted of 85.7% separate houses and 14.2% alternative housing types (semi-detached, apartments, and 'other' dwellings), compared to 82.6% separate houses and 17.4% alternative housing types in Regional NSW. Home ownership rates in Tumut were identical to the Regional NSW level at 37.7%, with the remaining properties being held under a mortgage (29.5%) or occupied by renters (32.8%). The median monthly mortgage payment in the locality was considerably lower than the Regional NSW average at $1,300, while the median weekly rent was recorded at $245, compared to regional figures of $1,733 and $330. Nationally, mortgage payments in Tumut are much lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are also significantly below the national benchmark of $375.

Tumut features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households represent the largest share of the community at 66.5%, consisting of 24.5% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent households. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 33.5%, with single-person households at 31.7% and group housing making up 1.8%. The median household occupancy of 2.3 individuals is slightly lower than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Tumut faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The region experiences educational hurdles, with university graduation rates (14.8%) sitting well below the NSW benchmark of 32.2%. This presents a difficulty but also an opening for focused educational programs. Bachelor degrees represent the largest share at 10.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate degrees (1.9%). Vocational and technical credentials are highly prevalent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications in these areas – advanced diplomas (8.0%) and certificates (30.7%).

Engagement in education is remarkably high, with 28.1% of local residents currently participating in formal study. This comprises 10.9% enrolled in primary schools, 8.0% in secondary schools, and 2.0% attending tertiary institutions.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of local transit indicates 149 active passenger transport stops in Tumut, consisting of various bus options. These stops are connected by 18 distinct routes, which combine to offer 151 weekly passenger journeys. Accessibility is classified as outstanding, with residents living an average of 142 meters from the nearest stop. Due to the area's main function as a residential suburb, most workers commute out of the district, with private cars remaining the primary travel choice at 93%, while 5% of residents walk. Average vehicle ownership is 1.3 per household, which is below the regional norm. A comparatively low proportion of 5.7% of residents work from home (based on the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-related conditions).

Service frequency averages 21 trips daily across all transport routes, translating to roughly 1 weekly trip per individual stop. The associated map details the 100 closest stops relative to the centerpoint of the location.

Health performance in Tumut is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health statistics show significant difficulties for Tumut, based on AreaSearch's evaluation of death rates and the occurrence of chronic illnesses, with common health issues appearing in both young and old demographics, while the proportion of residents with private health insurance is relatively low at about 51% of the population (~3,388 people).

The most prevalent health issues in the region were arthritis and asthma, affecting 11.0% and 10.0% of the population respectively, while 61.4% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The segment of the population that is of working age faces clear health difficulties, marked by high rates of chronic illness. Residents aged 65 and over make up 22.2% of the local population (1,466 people), which is below the 23.4% proportion in Regional NSW. Health profiles for senior citizens show some difficulties, with national performance metrics generally matching those of the wider population.

Tumut is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tumut displays lower levels of cultural diversity relative to averages, with citizens making up 89.0% of the population, 89.8% of residents born in Australia, and 94.3% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the predominant religious affiliation, accounting for 66.2% of residents in Tumut, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

Regarding family background (parents' country of birth), the top three ancestries in Tumut are Australian, representing 32.9% of the population, English, representing 31.3%, and Irish, representing 8.5%. There are also clear differences in the representation of other backgrounds: Australian Aboriginal residents are notably overrepresented at 5.9% of the Tumut population (compared to 4.6% across the region), South Australian backgrounds at 0.7% (compared to 0.2%), and Maori backgrounds at 0.6% (compared to 0.3%).

Tumut's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Tumut is 42 years, which is comparable to the Regional NSW average of 43 years and notably older than the Australian median of 38 years. Looking at the age distribution, individuals aged 25 to 34 are especially prominent (12.1%), while the 65 to 74 age bracket is relatively smaller (11.1%) than the regional average. Since 2021, the 35 to 44 age cohort has expanded from 11.4% to 12.5% of the total population. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 group has contracted from 13.1% to 11.6%. Population projections for 2041 point to significant demographic shifts in Tumut. The 85+ age group is expected to grow the fastest at 70%, gaining 126 residents to reach a total of 308. Conversely, population contractions are expected in the 5 to 14 and 55 to 64 age groups.