Tumut
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tumut reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Tumut's population was around 6,748 as of August 2025, reflecting an increase of 81 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 1.2% increase from the previous figure of 6,667. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,638 in June 2024 and an additional 114 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 167 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Tumut has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.3%, outpacing its SA3 area. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, Tumut is expected to expand by 269 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of 2.2% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tumut according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Tumut has seen approximately 16 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, totaling 81 homes over the past five financial years from FY20 to FY25, with 7 already approved in FY26. On average, 0.3 people have moved to the area for each dwelling built over these years. This suggests that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, offering buyers more options and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

The average expected construction cost of new properties is $446,000. Commercial approvals registered in FY26 amount to $42.3 million, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Tumut has similar development levels per person, maintaining market balance with the broader area, which is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 94% standalone homes and 6% medium-high density housing, preserving Tumut's traditional low-density character focused on family homes.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 347 people, indicating a quiet development environment. Population forecasts project Tumut will gain 148 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favorable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current projections.

Tumut has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects likely affecting this region. Key projects are Tumut Hospital Redevelopment, Tumut Aerodrome Infrastructure Upgrade Stage 2, Tumut River Works Program, and HumeLink.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The employment landscape in Tumut shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Tumut's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 7.8%. There are 3,057 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 4.6%, slightly higher than Rest of NSW's 3.7%. The dominant employment sectors include manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Manufacturing has a notable concentration, with employment levels at 2.7 times the regional average.

Professional & technical jobs are limited, at 2.2% compared to 5.1% regionally. Many residents commute elsewhere for work. In the past year, employment increased by 7.8%, while labour force grew by 8.9%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 1.0 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW, where employment contracted by 0.1%. State-level data to Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Tumut's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.4% over five years and 12.1% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Tumut had a median taxpayer income of $51,849 and an average income of $63,847 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures are slightly lower than the national averages. In contrast, Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for Tumut as of March 2025 would be approximately $57,345 (median) and $70,615 (average). The 2021 Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Tumut all fall between the 17th and 20th percentiles nationally. Income distribution data indicates that the predominant cohort spans 28.5% of locals (1,923 people) with incomes ranging from $1,500 to 2,999 per week, which is similar to the surrounding region where 29.9% of residents fall into this bracket. After accounting for housing costs, 86.4% of income remains in Tumut, ranking at the 20th percentile nationally.

Tumut is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Tumut, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 85.7% houses and 14.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 92.0% houses and 8.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tumut stood at 37.7%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 29.5% and rented dwellings making up 32.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, aligning with the Non-Metro NSW average. However, the median weekly rent in Tumut was $245, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $230. Nationally, Tumut's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tumut features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.5% of all households, including 24.5% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 33.5%, with lone person households at 31.7% and group households making up 1.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Tumut faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.8%, substantially lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (8.0%) and certificates (30.7%).

Educational participation is high at 28.1%, including 10.9% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education. Tumut's 5 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,441 students. The educational mix includes 2 primary, 1 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools. As an education hub, Tumut has 21.7 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 14.0, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 140 active stops operating in Tumut, consisting of a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 18 individual routes, collectively offering 151 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 142 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 21 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per stop.

Health performance in Tumut is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tumut faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Both younger and older age groups exhibit high prevalence rates of common health conditions. Approximately 51% (~3,454 people) have private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.0%) and asthma (10.0%). A total of 61.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 62.9% in Rest of NSW. Tumut has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.2% (1,496 people), compared to the state average of 24.8%. The health outcomes among seniors largely align with those of the general population.

Tumut is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tumut's cultural diversity was found to be below average. Its population comprises 89.0% citizens, with 89.8% born in Australia and 94.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tumut at 66.2%, compared to 65.3% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (32.9%), English (31.3%), and Irish (8.5%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation is higher in Tumut at 5.9% versus regional 4.8%. South African and Maori representations are also higher at 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively, compared to regional figures of 0.5% and 0.4%.

Tumut hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Tumut's median age is 42 years, comparable to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile indicates that the 25-34 year-olds are notably prominent at 12.4%, while the 65-74 group is relatively smaller at 11.1% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of 25-34 year-olds has increased from 11.4% to 12.4%. Conversely, the percentage of the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 13.1% to 11.9%. Population projections for 2041 suggest significant demographic shifts in Tumut. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 16%, adding 133 residents to reach 974. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 75-84 and 5-14 cohorts.