Tumut

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tumut reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Tumut's population was approximately 6,779 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 112 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,667. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 6,628 in June 2024 and 132 validated new addresses added after the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 168 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Tumut's growth has been resilient with a compound annual growth rate of 0.3%, surpassing that of its SA3 area. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during this period.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a 2021 base year are utilised. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future demographic trends suggest lower quartile growth in regional areas, with Tumut expected to expand by 269 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 1.7% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tumut according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Tumut has seen approximately 22 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 111 dwellings were approved, with an additional 17 approved in FY-26. On average, about 0.3 people moved to the area each year for every dwelling built during these five years.

This suggests that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new dwellings was $357,000. In FY-26, Tumut has recorded $42.3 million in commercial development approvals, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Tumut shows comparable development activity per person, maintaining market balance consistent with the broader area.

However, this level is below average nationally, which could reflect the area's maturity or possible planning constraints. New development in Tumut consists predominantly of detached dwellings, with 94.0% of approved homes being detached and 6.0% attached. This maintains the area's traditional low-density character, focusing on family homes appealing to those seeking space. As of current data, there are an estimated 347 people per dwelling approval in Tumut, reflecting its quiet, low-activity development environment. Looking ahead, Tumut is projected to grow by 117 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Tumut has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified three major projects potentially impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Tumut Hospital Redevelopment, Tumut Aerodrome Infrastructure Upgrade Stage 2, Tumut River Works Program, and HumeLink. Relevant details are listed below.

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The employment landscape in Tumut shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Tumut has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are strongly present. The unemployment rate was 4.0% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.7%.

As of September 2025, 3,014 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, slightly above Rest of NSW's 3.8%. Workforce participation was 58.1%, below the Rest of NSW average of 61.5%. Census data showed that 5.7% of residents worked from home. Dominant employment sectors include manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Manufacturing has a particularly high concentration with levels at 2.7 times the regional average. Professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 2.2% employment compared to the regional average of 5.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the year ending September 2025, employment increased by 3.7%, while labour force grew by 4.8%, leading to an unemployment rise of 1.0 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5% and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tumut's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.4% over five years and 12.1% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Tumut SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $53,938 and an average income of $64,595 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This was lower than the national average, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $58,717 for the median and $70,318 for the average as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Tumut all fell between the 16th and 20th percentiles nationally. Distribution data showed that 28.5% of locals (1,932 people) had incomes in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the surrounding region where 29.9% occupied this bracket. After housing costs, 86.4% of income remained, ranking at the 19th percentile nationally.

Tumut is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The latest Census evaluation of Tumut's dwelling structure shows 85.7% houses and 14.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tumut was 37.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.5% and rented ones at 32.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Tumut was $1,300, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Weekly rent in Tumut was $245, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Tumut's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tumut features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.5% of all households, including 24.5% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 33.5%, with lone person households at 31.7% and group households comprising 1.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Tumut faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.8%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (8.0%) and certificates (30.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.9% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tumut has 149 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 18 different routes that collectively provide 151 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of public transport in Tumut is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 142 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward for work or other purposes. The car remains the dominant mode of transportation, used by 93% of residents, while walking accounts for 5%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling in Tumut, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 5.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 21 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop. A map accompanies this analysis and shows the locations of the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Tumut is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Tumut, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Both younger and older age groups exhibit high prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 51% (~3,470 people) of Tumut's total population has private health cover, which is relatively low compared to other areas. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 11.0% of residents) and asthma (impacting 10.0%). Notably, 61.4% of Tumut residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in the rest of NSW. Working-age individuals face significant health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Tumut has 22.1% (1,501 people) of its population aged 65 and over, lower than the 23.4% in the rest of NSW. While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, they generally align with national rankings for the overall population.

Tumut is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tumut's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.0% of its population being Australian citizens, 89.8% born in Australia, and 94.3% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Tumut is Christianity, which makes up 66.2% of the population compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. Regarding ancestry, the top three represented groups in Tumut are Australian (32.9%), English (31.3%), and Irish (8.5%).

Notably, certain ethnic groups have different representations: Australian Aboriginal is overrepresented at 5.9% in Tumut compared to 4.6% regionally, South African at 0.7% vs 0.2%, and Maori at 0.6% vs 0.3%.

Tumut's median age exceeds the national pattern

Tumut's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43, but older than Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are particularly prominent, making up 12.6% of the population, while those aged 65-74 make up a smaller proportion at 11.0%. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of the population aged 25 to 34 has increased from 11.4% to 12.6%, while the percentage of those aged 55 to 64 has decreased from 13.1% to 11.7%. Population forecasts for Tumut in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes, with the strongest projected growth in the 85+ cohort, expected to grow by 67%, adding 129 residents to reach a total of 321. In contrast, population declines are projected for those aged 75-84 and 5-14 years old.