Tumbarumba

Tumbarumba is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

According to findings by AreaSearch, the resident count of Tumbarumba is estimated at 3,590 around May 2026. This represents an addition of 68 individuals (1.9%) relative to the 2021 Census, which recorded 3,522 residents. This shift is calculated utilizing the ABS estimated resident population of 3,590 for June 2025 alongside 60 validated new addresses registered post-Census. Such a population size results in a density of 0.80 persons per square kilometer, which indicates a low-density living environment. The local expansion rate of 1.9% since the 2021 census was higher than the wider SA3 region (0.5%), positioning the locality as a leading growth area in the vicinity. The main driver of this upward trajectory was interstate migration, which accounted for roughly 70.5% of the total population growth in recent times.

In this assessment, AreaSearch incorporates projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia published in 2024, using 2022 as the starting point. For SA2 regions lacking these figures, projections from the NSW State Government released in 2022 with a 2021 base year are substituted. Age-specific growth velocities from these reports are further projected for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking at long-term demographic paths, the projections point to a minor contraction in the resident base, which is expected to decrease by 9 persons by 2041 under this approach. Conversely, certain age brackets are set to grow, particularly the cohort aged 75 to 84, which is forecast to rise by 62 people. Refer to the age breakdown for further information.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Tumbarumba, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Municipal records show that Tumbarumba registers approximately 12 residential building approvals annually, with 63 residences approved throughout the last 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25) and 8 recorded during FY-26 so far. An average influx of 1.2 residents per year for each new dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 points to balanced market conditions where supply aligns with demand, though this ratio has recently shifted to 6.4 people per dwelling over the last 2 financial years, indicating a tighter housing supply and growing demand. Approved building works carry an average construction value of $295,000. Furthermore, commercial building approvals have reached $7.0 million this financial year, which points to a subdued commercial construction sector.

Relative to the Rest of NSW, Tumbarumba shows a slightly elevated level of building approvals (15.0% above the regional average per capita over the 5 year period), which helps maintain buyer options while supporting current home values, though construction pace has decreased lately. This volume remains lower than the national standard, suggesting a mature local market or potential development restrictions. Moreover, all recent approvals have been for detached dwellings, which maintains the low-density profile of the area and caters to buyers seeking spacious homes. The ratio of 744 people per approved residential permit highlights the quiet pace of local property development.

Given that demographic forecasts indicate stable or contracting population numbers, Tumbarumba is likely to experience minimal pressure on housing demand, which should benefit home buyers.

Tumbarumba has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Local infrastructure projects, major works, and municipal planning decisions play a major role in regional performance. AreaSearch has tracked 15 key projects likely to impact the locality, including the Batlow Water Security (Concept Design) Project, the Talbingo Battery Energy Storage System, the Snowy 2.0 Transmission Connection Project, and the Tumut River Works Program, with details of the most significant projects listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Tumbarumba exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

The local workforce is evenly distributed between professional and industrial roles across a range of industries, accompanied by a low unemployment rate of 2.6%. As of March 2026, employed residents numbered 1,624, with the local unemployment rate sitting 1.5% below the Regional NSW average of 4.1%, whereas the participation rate of 54.8% is notably lower than the regional benchmark of 60.6%. Census records indicate that a moderate 17.4% of the working population operated from home, though this figure may have been influenced by pandemic-related lockdowns.

The primary employment sectors for local residents consist of agriculture, forestry & fishing, manufacturing, and public administration & safety. The region exhibits an exceptionally high concentration in agriculture, forestry & fishing, where the employment proportion is 5.0 times higher than the regional average. Conversely, health care & social assistance is poorly represented, employing 8.1% of the local workforce compared to 16.9% across Regional NSW. Although there are employment opportunities within the boundary, a comparison of the Census working population against the local resident base suggests a significant number of people travel outside the area for work.

Based on analysis of SALM and ABS statistics by AreaSearch, the local labour force contracted by 3.4% and total employment fell by 2.8% during the twelve months ending March 2026, leading to a 0.6 percentage point decrease in the unemployment rate. In comparison, Regional NSW experienced a 0.9% drop in employment, a 0.4% reduction in the workforce, and a 0.5 percentage point increase in unemployment. Future employment prospects can be evaluated through national forecasts issued by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25. These five and ten-year projections have been applied to the local workforce structure to model potential employment trends. Globally, national employment is expected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though individual sector growth rates vary. When these national industry trends are applied to the local employment distribution, they suggest a potential employment increase of 4.7% over five years and 10.8% over ten years, representing a basic weighted projection that does not factor in localized population changes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The latest postcode-level tax data from the ATO for financial year 2023 indicates that local earnings in the Tumbarumba SA2 are below the Australian benchmark, with a median of $51,115 and an average of $59,428. This is lower than the Regional NSW median of $52,390 and average of $65,215. Incorporating Wage Price Index inflation of 10.32% since financial year 2023, updated estimates suggest figures of roughly $56,390 (median) and $65,561 (average) by March 2026. Data from the 2021 Census reveals that household, family, and individual incomes are positioned modestly between the 22nd and 29th percentiles. The distribution of earnings indicates that the largest cohort, comprising 30.0% of the population (1,077 people), falls in the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, which closely mirrors the regional proportion of 29.9%. Local residents retain 91.4% of their income after housing costs, though overall disposable income is positioned below average at the 32nd percentile.

Tumbarumba is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The mix of housing types in Tumbarumba at the time of the last Census consisted of 97.0% detached houses and 3.0% other dwelling types like townhouses and apartments, compared to 82.6% houses and 17.4% other options across Regional NSW. Home ownership was exceptionally high at 51.3%, while mortgaged properties accounted for 26.3% and rented properties made up 22.4%. The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,127 was significantly below the Regional NSW average, and the median weekly rent was $208, compared to regional benchmarks of $1,733 and $330 respectively. On a national level, mortgage costs in Tumbarumba are much lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are well below the national average of $375.

Tumbarumba has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up the majority of households at 70.5%, consisting of couples without children (36.4%), couples with children (23.1%), and single parent households (10.1%). The remaining 29.5% are non-family households, which are mostly occupied by single persons (27.8%) alongside group households at 2.0%. The median household occupancy of 2.3 individuals is slightly lower than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Tumbarumba faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The region presents low levels of higher education, with university graduation rates at 16.6% sitting far below the NSW state average of 32.2%. This gap highlights an opportunity for targeted learning programs. Among those with university degrees, bachelor degrees account for 12.2%, followed by graduate diplomas at 2.3% and postgraduate degrees at 2.1%. Practical and vocational skills are common, with 41.3% of individuals aged 15+ holding trade credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (31.6%).

Enrolment levels in the community are high, with 30.2% of residents participating in some form of structured education. This total comprises 12.0% in primary schools, 8.8% in high schools, and 2.0% enrolled in higher education programs.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport networks include 197 active passenger stops within Tumbarumba, combining rail and bus services. These locations are served by 17 unique routes, generating a total of 1,301 weekly passenger journeys. Accessibility is good, with residents living an average of 204 meters from their nearest transit stop. Commuting patterns reflect the residential nature of the area, with 88% of workers driving to their jobs and 9% choosing to walk. Households own an average of 1.7 vehicles, which is higher than the regional average. In addition, 17.4% of residents worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by pandemic conditions.

Transit services maintain an average frequency of 185 daily trips across all routes, which corresponds to roughly 6 weekly services at each individual stop. The associated mapping tool illustrates the 100 transit stops nearest to the center of the area.

Health outcomes in Tumbarumba are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Health metrics point to below-average wellbeing levels in Tumbarumba, as shown by AreaSearch analysis of mortality statistics and chronic disease rates, with common conditions showing slightly higher prevalence rates across both younger and older cohorts, combined with a low rate of private health insurance coverage at around 49% of the population (~1,755 people). This rate is below the Regional NSW level of 51.9% and the national benchmark of 55.7%.

Arthritis and asthma are the most frequently reported medical diagnoses locally, affecting 11.2% and 8.9% of residents. Meanwhile, 62.8% of the population reported no long-term health conditions, which is close to the 63.3% average for Regional NSW. Residents of working age experience notable health difficulties with higher rates of chronic illness. Seniors aged 65 and over constitute 29.6% of the population (1,062 people), which exceeds the Regional NSW proportion of 23.4%. However, health outcomes for this senior cohort are above average, ranking higher nationally than the local population as a whole.

Tumbarumba is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tumbarumba displays a low level of cultural diversity, with citizens making up 85.8% of the population, 89.3% of residents born in Australia, and 96.7% speaking only English at home. The predominant religious affiliation is Christianity, representing 61.4% of the local population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

With respect to family backgrounds, the three most common ancestries are Australian at 32.2%, English at 31.4%, and Scottish at 9.0%. There are also distinct variations in other backgrounds, with German ancestry overrepresented at 4.7% of the population (compared to 3.1% regionally), Australian Aboriginal at 4.4% (compared to 4.6% regionally), and Maltese at 0.5% (compared to 0.4% regionally).

Tumbarumba hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age of 47 years in Tumbarumba is higher than the Regional NSW average of 43 and the Australian average of 38 years. The demographic breakdown shows a high concentration of residents aged 65 - 74 (16.7%), while the 25 - 34 bracket is smaller at 7.9% compared to Regional NSW. The proportion of residents aged 65 - 74 is higher than the national figure of 9.4%. Since 2021, the 65 to 74 group has expanded from 13.9% to 16.7%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has risen from 8.8% to 10.5%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 group decreased from 15.5% to 13.1%, while the 25 to 34 bracket fell from 9.7% to 7.9%. By 2041, the age profile will undergo major transitions, led by the 75 to 84 bracket which is projected to grow by 14% (47 people) to reach 387 from 339. The aging trend is pronounced, with residents aged 65+ accounting for 61% of the projected growth, while declines are expected in the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 brackets.