Tumut

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tumut reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Tumut is estimated at around 6565 as of May 2026, reflecting a decrease of 48 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 6613. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 6555 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2025 and validation of 131 new addresses since the Census date. The suburb has a population density ratio of 222 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential for further development. Over the past decade, Tumut's compound annual growth rate was 0.3%, outpacing its SA3 area. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth during recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate lower quartile growth for locations outside capital cities, with Tumut expected to grow by 230 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 3.4% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tumut according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Tumut recorded approximately 21 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 109 homes. As of FY-26, 20 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.2 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were reported between FY-21 and FY-25. This suggests that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current expectations.

The average construction value of new properties is $446,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $39.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Rest of NSW, Tumut maintains comparable new home approvals per person, consistent with the broader area's market balance. However, this level is below the national average, suggesting an established area and potential planning limitations.

Recent construction comprises 95% detached houses and 5% townhouses or apartments, preserving Tumut's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. The area has approximately 299 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Tumut is projected to grow by 220 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond projections.

Tumut has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified three projects potentially impacting the region: Tumut Hospital Redevelopment, Tumut Aerodrome Infrastructure Upgrade Stage 2, Tumut River Works Program, and HumeLink. The following details these key projects.

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The employment landscape in Tumut presents a mixed picture: unemployment remains low at 3.9%, yet recent job losses have affected its comparative national standing

Tumut has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. The unemployment rate was 3.9% as of December 2025, matching Regional NSW's rate. Workforce participation was lower at 55.8%.

Census data showed that 5.7% of residents worked from home. Leading industries include manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Manufacturing is particularly strong with an employment share 2.7 times the regional level. Professional & technical jobs were lower at 2.2%.

The area may have limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Tumut's labour force decreased by 3.1% and employment by 3.6%, leading to a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Regional NSW saw an employment decline of 1.2% and labour force decline of 0.8%. Jobs and Skills Australia projects national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary by industry. Applying these projections to Tumut's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 5.4% over five years and 12.1% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on 30 June 2023, the suburb of Tumut had a median income among taxpayers of $51,769 with the average level standing at $63,749. This is lower than national averages which were $52,390 and $65,215 respectively for Regional NSW in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $57,112 (median) and $70,328 (average) as of March 2026. From the Census conducted in August 2021, household incomes in Tumut fell between the 16th and 20th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominated with 28.8% of residents (1,890 people), reflecting broader area patterns where 29.9% occupied this range. After housing costs, 86.4% of income remained, ranking at the 19th percentile nationally.

Tumut is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Tumut, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.6% houses and 14.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tumut was at 37.6%, with the rest being mortgaged (29.5%) or rented (32.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent was recorded at $245, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Tumut's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tumut features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.4% of all households, including 24.4% couples with children, 28.1% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.6%, with lone person households at 31.8% and group households comprising 1.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Tumut faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 14.9%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (7.9%) and certificates (30.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tumut has 144 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 18 different routes that together offer 151 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of public transport in Tumut is rated as excellent, with residents on average located just 142 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most people commute outwards using their cars, which remain the dominant mode of transport at 93%. Five percent of residents walk to work or other destinations. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling in Tumut, which is lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 5.7% of residents work from home, a figure that might be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 21 trips per day across all routes, translating to roughly one weekly trip per individual stop. A map accompanies this data, showing the 100 nearest stops to Tumut's central location.

Health performance in Tumut is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tumut's health data shows significant issues based on AreaSearch's analysis.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is higher than average at approximately 52% of Tumut's total population (~3,424 people). The most common conditions are arthritis (11.0%) and asthma (10.1%), while 61.4% report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. Tumut has 22.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,470 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Tumut is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tumut's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.9% of its population being citizens, 89.8% born in Australia, and 94.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Tumut, comprising 66.1% of people, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (32.8%), English (31.3%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation is higher at 5.9% in Tumut versus 4.6% regionally, South Australian at 0.7% compared to 0.2%, and Maori at 0.6% compared to 0.3%.

Tumut's median age exceeds the national pattern

Tumut's median age is 42 years, similar to Regional NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are prominent at 12.3%, while the 65-74 group is smaller at 11.1% compared to Regional NSW. Between 2021 and now, the 35-44 age group has grown from 11.3% to 12.5% of Tumut's population, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 10.9% to 12.0%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 13.1% to 11.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Tumut. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 70%, adding 129 residents to reach 313. In contrast, population declines are expected for the 5-14 and 55-64 cohorts.