Duffy

An assessment of population growth drivers in Duffy reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Duffy's population is approximately 3,431 as of November 2025. This represents an increase of 36 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,395. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,429 in June 2024 and an additional 10 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,225 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Duffy's growth of 1.1% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth of 0.6%, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, using 2022 as a base. Future demographic trends anticipate lower quartile growth of statistical areas across the nation. Duffy is expected to grow by 88 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 2.5% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Duffy according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Duffy has seen approximately 5 new homes approved annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling 28 homes. As of FY-26, 6 approvals have been recorded. On average, each home built between FY-21 and FY-25 accommodates around 5.5 new residents per year. This supply lagging demand results in heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures, with new homes being constructed at an average value of $313,000.

In FY-26, $209,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Duffy shows about 75% of construction activity per person but ranks among the 15th percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer options and strong demand for established properties. Recent construction comprises 50.0% standalone homes and 50.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 88.0% houses. Duffy has approximately 1001 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. By 2041, population forecasts estimate an increase of 86 residents (latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Population forecasts indicate Duffy will gain 86 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Duffy has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 18thth percentile nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, major undertakings, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are predicted to impact this area. Notable projects include Molonglo Group Centre to Town Centre Transition, Fetherston Weston, Deakin Private Hospital, Ngurra Cultural Precinct. Below is a list of those expected to be most relevant.

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Duffy has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Duffy has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.6% as of September 2025, aligning with the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) rate.

Workforce participation was slightly lower at 66.5%, compared to ACT's 69.6%. Dominant employment sectors included public administration & safety, professional & technical services, and health care & social assistance. However, accommodation & food services were under-represented with only 5.0% of Duffy's workforce compared to ACT's 6.5%.

Limited local employment opportunities were indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.3%, labour force grew by 0.9%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, ACT recorded employment growth of 1.4% with a fall in unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points. As of 25-Nov-25, ACT's year-on-year employment grew by 1.19%, adding 710 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.5%. National forecasts from May-25 project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Duffy's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Duffy SA2's median income among taxpayers was $70,808 and average income stood at $84,236 in financial year 2022, according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures compare to ACT's median of $68,678 and average of $83,634 respectively. As of September 2025, estimated incomes based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.6% would be approximately $80,438 (median) and $95,692 (average). Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Duffy rank between the 92nd and 93rd percentiles nationally. Income brackets show 31.6% of individuals earn between $1,500 - $2,999 weekly, consistent with regional trends at 34.3%. Notably, 43.3% earn above $3,000 weekly, reflecting prosperity driving local economic activity. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of income, indicating strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Duffy is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Duffy's dwelling structure, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 87.9% houses and 12.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to the Australian Capital Territory's 81.7% houses and 18.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Duffy was at 37.6%, similar to the Australian Capital Territory average, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.3% and rented ones at 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Duffy was $2,476, higher than the Australian Capital Territory's $2,251. Median weekly rent in Duffy was $445, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $420. Nationally, Duffy's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,476 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Duffy features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.3% of all households, including 37.2% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 20.3% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.6.

Duffy shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Duffy, educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 46.7% possess university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4%. This educational advantage is reflected in various credentials: bachelor degrees at 26.0%, postgraduate qualifications at 14.5%, and graduate diplomas at 6.2%. Vocational skills are also prominent, with 25.9% of residents holding such credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (14.9%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 6.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Duffy shows that there are currently 29 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops primarily serve bus routes, with a total of 4 individual routes providing service to the community. Each week, these routes facilitate a combined total of 862 passenger trips.

The accessibility of public transportation is rated as excellent in Duffy, with residents typically located approximately 162 meters away from the nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency across all routes amounts to 123 trips per day, which translates to roughly 29 weekly trips per individual stop.

Duffy's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data for Duffy shows positive outcomes, with low prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 62% of the total population (2,140 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 8.3 and 8.1% of residents respectively. A total of 68.9% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 66.3%. There are 15.4% of residents aged 65 and over (527 people), which is lower than the Australian Capital Territory's 20.6%. Health outcomes among seniors in Duffy are above average, similar to the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Duffy records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Duffy's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 21.1% born overseas and 15.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The dominant religion is Christianity, at 42.7%. Judaism, though small at 0.4%, is higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 0.2%.

Ancestry-wise, Australians make up 26.7%, followed by English (26.4%) and Irish (9.3%). Hungarian (0.8%), Polish (1.5%), and Welsh (0.9%) groups are notably more prevalent in Duffy compared to regional averages of 0.6%, 0.9%, and 0.7% respectively.

Duffy's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

At 38 years old, Duffy's median age is higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 but equivalent to Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Duffy has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (16.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.8%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, younger residents caused the median age to decrease by one year to 38 years old. Key changes include an increase in the 5-14 age group from 13.6% to 16.3% of the population, while the 35-44 cohort rose from 13.6% to 15.4%. Conversely, the 65-74 age group decreased from 8.9% to 7.3%, and the 45-54 group fell from 15.3% to 14.0%. By 2041, population forecasts suggest significant demographic changes in Duffy. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to increase by 51 people (11%), rising from 480 to 532 residents. Conversely, both the 65-74 and 55-64 age groups are expected to decrease in number.