Duffy

An assessment of population growth drivers in Duffy reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Duffy's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 3,434 people. This figure represents an increase of 39 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,395. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,429 in June 2024 and an additional 10 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 1,226 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Duffy's growth rate of 1.1% since the 2021 census exceeds that of the SA3 area (0.5%), positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, using 2022 as the base year. According to demographic trends, lower quartile growth is anticipated for statistical areas across the nation. Duffy is expected to grow by 88 persons to reach a total population of approximately 3,522 by 2041, reflecting an overall gain of 2.4% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Duffy according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Duffy has seen approximately 5 new homes approved each year over the past 5 financial years, totalling 28 homes. In FY-26 so far, 6 approvals have been recorded. On average, 5.5 new residents per year have been associated with every home built between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates a significant lag in supply compared to demand, which typically leads to increased buyer competition and pricing pressures.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $313,000, somewhat higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. This financial year has seen $209,000 in commercial development approvals, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Duffy shows around 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 15th percentile nationally, indicating limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties. Recent construction comprises 50.0% standalone homes and 50.0% townhouses or apartments, representing a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 88.0% houses. This change suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. Duffy has approximately 1001 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market.

Population forecasts indicate the area will gain 83 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Duffy has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 43rdth percentile nationally

No changes can significantly impact a region's performance like modifications to its local infrastructure, major projects, or planning initiatives. AreaSearch has pinpointed zero projects that are probable to affect this area. Notable projects encompass Molonglo Group Centre to Town Centre Transition, Fetherston Weston, Deakin Private Hospital, and Ngurra Cultural Precinct, with the succeeding list outlining those likely most pertinent.

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Duffy has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Duffy has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.6%, comparable to the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) rate as of September 2025. The unemployment rate remained stable over the past year.

Out of 1,809 residents employed, 69.9% participate in the workforce compared to ACT's 72.5%. A moderate 14.7% work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors include public administration & safety, professional & technical services, and health care & social assistance.

However, accommodation & food services are under-represented at 5.0%, compared to ACT's 6.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the ratio of working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.3% while labour force grew by 0.9%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, ACT saw employment growth of 1.4% and labour force growth of 1.2%, with a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Duffy's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for local population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The Duffy SA2 had an extremely high national income level according to AreaSearch aggregated ATO data for financial year 2023. Its median income among taxpayers was $73,230 and the average income stood at $85,263, compared to ACT's figures of $72,206 and $85,981 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.26% since financial year 2023, current estimates are approximately $80,011 (median) and $93,158 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes all rank highly in Duffy, between the 92nd and 93rd percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 31.6% of the community (1,085 individuals), consistent with regional trends showing 34.3% in the same category. A significant 43.3% earn above $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Duffy is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Duffy, as assessed in the latest Census, 87.9% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 12.1% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In comparison, the Australian Capital Territory had 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Duffy stood at 37.6%, with mortgaged properties at 43.3% and rented ones at 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,476, exceeding the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,080. The median weekly rent in Duffy was $445, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $450. Nationally, Duffy's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were above the national figure of $375.

Duffy features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.3% of all households, including 37.2% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 20.3% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Duffy shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Duffy, residents aged 15 and above have a higher educational attainment than the national average. Specifically, 46.7% of Duffy's residents hold university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4%. This notable advantage is driven by bachelor degrees (26.0%), postgraduate qualifications (14.5%), and graduate diplomas (6.2%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent in Duffy, with 25.9% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (14.9%).

Educational participation is high in Duffy, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (9.5%), secondary education (9.2%), and tertiary education (6.4%).

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Duffy has 28 active public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are served by 71 different routes that collectively facilitate 5,540 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 162 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 89%, followed by buses at 6% and cycling at 3%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling in Duffy, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.7% of residents work from home, a figure that may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages out to 791 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 197 weekly trips per individual stop.

Duffy's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Duffy. AreaSearch's assessment indicates low prevalence of chronic conditions among younger cohorts.

Approximately 62% of Duffy's total population (2,129 people) has private health cover, higher than the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 8.3% and 8.1% of residents respectively. 68.9% of residents declare no medical ailments, compared to 70.2% across Australian Capital Territory. Under-65 population health outcomes are better than average. Duffy has 15.4% of residents aged 65 and over (527 people), higher than the 14.1% in Australian Capital Territory. Senior health outcomes are above average but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Duffy records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Duffy's population showed cultural diversity with 21.1% born overseas and 15.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 42.7%. Judaism was overrepresented in Duffy at 0.4%, compared to 0.2% regionally.

The top three ancestral groups were Australian (26.7%), English (26.4%), and Irish (9.3%). Notable divergences existed in Hungarian (0.8% vs regional 0.3%), Polish (1.5% vs regional 0.8%), and Welsh (0.9% vs regional 0.6%) representation.

Duffy's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Duffy's median age is 38 years, which is slightly higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 but equivalent to Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Duffy has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.8%). Between the 2021 Census and present day, younger residents have caused the median age to decrease by 1 year to 38 years. Key population shifts include an increase in the 5-14 age group from 13.6% to 16.3%, and a rise in the 35-44 cohort from 13.6% to 15.4%. Conversely, the 65-74 age group has decreased from 8.9% to 7.3%, and the 45-54 age group has fallen from 15.3% to 14.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate that Duffy's 45-54 age cohort is projected to increase by 51 people (an 11% rise) from 480 to 532 residents. However, both the 65-74 and 55-64 age groups are expected to have reduced numbers.