Duffy

An assessment of population growth drivers in Duffy reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Duffy's population is around 3,437 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 42 people (1.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,395 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,429 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,227 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Duffy's 1.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (0.6%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections, with 2022 as a base, are adopted. Regarding demographic trends, lower quartile growth of statistical areas across the nation is anticipated, with the area expected to grow by 88 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 2.3% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Duffy according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Duffy has seen around 5 new homes approved each year, totalling 28 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 6 approvals have been recorded. At an average of 5.5 new residents per year for every home built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is substantially lagging demand, which generally means heightened buyer competition, leading to pricing pressures, while new homes are being built at an average value of $313,000—somewhat higher than regional norms—reflecting quality-focused development. Additionally, $209,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting a predominantly residential focus.

When measured against the Australian Capital Territory, Duffy shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person while it places among the 15th percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties. This activity is similarly under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 50.0% standalone homes and 50.0% townhouses or apartments. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 88.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 1001 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market.

Population forecasts indicate Duffy will gain 80 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Duffy has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 43rdth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 0 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Molonglo Group Centre to Town Centre Transition, Fetherston Weston, Deakin Private Hospital, and Ngurra Cultural Precinct, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Duffy has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Duffy possesses a highly educated workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of only 4.0%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 1,805 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.2% above the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.8%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (70.4% compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 72.6%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 14.7% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include public administration & safety, professional & technical, and health care & social assistance. Conversely, accommodation & food is under-represented, with only 5.0% of Duffy's workforce compared to 6.5% in the Australian Capital Territory. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels remained stable by 0.0% and the labour force increased by 1.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.0 percentage points. By comparison, the Australian Capital Territory recorded employment growth of 0.9%, labour force growth of 1.2%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Duffy. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Duffy's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The Duffy SA2's income level is extremely high nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Duffy SA2's median income among taxpayers is $73,230 and the average income stands at $85,263, which compares to figures for the Australian Capital Territory's of $72,206 and $85,981 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.26% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $80,011 (median) and $93,158 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Duffy, between the 92nd and 93rd percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 31.6% of the community (1,086 individuals), consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 34.3% in the same category. A significant 43.3% earn above $3,000 weekly, reflecting pockets of prosperity that drive robust local economic activity. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Duffy is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Duffy, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 87.9% houses and 12.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to the Australian Capital Territory's 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Duffy was well beyond that of the Australian Capital Territory, at 37.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (43.3%) or rented (19.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Australian Capital Territory average at $2,476, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $445, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $2,080 and $450. Nationally, Duffy's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Duffy features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 77.3% of all households, comprising 37.2% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 20.3% and group households comprising 3.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.7 people is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Duffy shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Duffy significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 46.7% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% in Australia. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 26.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.5%) and graduate diplomas (6.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 25.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (14.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 6.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 28 active transport stops operating within Duffy, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 71 individual routes, collectively providing 5,540 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 162 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 89%, with 6% by bus and 3% cycling. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 14.7% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 791 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 197 weekly trips per individual stop.

Duffy's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Duffy, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Younger cohorts in particular see very low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 62% of the total population (2,130 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 8.3% and 8.1% of residents, respectively, while 68.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 70.2% across the Australian Capital Territory. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 15.2% of residents aged 65 and over (522 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Duffy records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Duffy is above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 21.1% of its population born overseas and 15.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Duffy is Christianity, which makes up 42.7% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Judaism, which comprises 0.4% of the population, compared to 0.2% across the Australian Capital Territory.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Duffy are Australian, comprising 26.7% of the population, English, comprising 26.4% of the population, and Irish, comprising 9.3% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Hungarian is notably overrepresented at 0.8% of Duffy (vs 0.3% regionally), Polish at 1.5% (vs 0.8%) and Welsh at 0.9% (vs 0.6%).

Duffy's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

At 38 years, Duffy's median age is somewhat higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 while equivalent to the Australian median of 38. Relative to the Australian Capital Territory, Duffy has a higher concentration of 5 - 14 residents (16.8%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (10.4%). Since the 2021 Census, younger residents have shifted the median age down by 1.2 years to 38. Key changes show the 5 to 14 age group has grown from 13.6% to 16.8% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 13.6% to 15.9%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 8.9% to 7.0% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 11.5% to 9.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Duffy. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to increase solidly, expanding by 50 people (10%) from 481 to 532. Conversely, both the 55 to 64 and 25 to 34 age groups will see reduced numbers.