Duffy

An assessment of population growth drivers in Duffy reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the estimated population of Duffy as of February 2026 is around 3,437. This reflects an increase of 42 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,395. The change was inferred from the resident population of 3,429 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,227 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Duffy's growth of 1.2% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth of 0.6%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, using 2022 as a base. Considering projected demographic shifts, lower quartile growth is anticipated, with Duffy expected to increase by 88 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 2.3% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Duffy according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Duffy has seen around 5 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 28 homes. So far in FY-26, 6 approvals have been recorded. Given an average of 5.5 new residents arriving per dwelling constructed over these five years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is substantially lagging demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

New homes are being built at an average value of $331,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. Additionally, $209,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Australian Capital Territory, Duffy has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places among the 16th percentile of areas assessed nationally, suggesting more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings. This level reflects market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 50.0% detached dwellings and 50.0% attached dwellings, focusing on higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 88.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

At around 981 people per approval, Duffy shows a mature, established area. Looking ahead, Duffy is expected to grow by 80 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Duffy has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly affect local performance. AreaSearch identified zero projects impacting the area. Notable initiatives comprise Molonglo Group Centre to Town Centre Transition, Fetherston Weston, Deakin Private Hospital, and Ngurra Cultural Precinct. Relevant projects are detailed below.

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Employment performance in Duffy has been broadly consistent with national averages

Duffy has a highly educated workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 3.6% as of September 2025, matching the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) rate. Employment stability over the past year remained relatively stable.

Workforce participation in Duffy was somewhat below the ACT average at 70.3%. According to Census responses, 14.7% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment among residents were public administration & safety, professional & technical services, and health care & social assistance.

Conversely, accommodation & food employed only 5.0% of local workers, lower than the ACT's 6.5%. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels in Duffy increased by 0.3%, while the labour force grew by 0.9%, resulting in a rise of 0.5 percentage points in unemployment rate. This contrasted with ACT where employment rose by 1.4%, labour force grew by 1.2%, and unemployment fell by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 estimated that national employment would expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Duffy's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not account for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The suburb of Duffy had a median taxpayer income of $70,808 and an average income of $84,236 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. Nationally, these figures are very high compared to the Australian Capital Territory's median income of $72,206 and average income of $85,981. By September 2025, based on a 9.26% growth in wages since financial year 2023, estimated incomes would be approximately $77,365 (median) and $92,036 (average). Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Duffy all rank highly nationally, between the 92nd and 93rd percentiles. The income bracket of $1,500 - $2,999 captures 31.6% of Duffy's community, with 1,086 individuals falling into this category. This is consistent with broader trends across the broader area, where 34.3% fall into the same earnings band. Economic strength in Duffy is evident through 43.3% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, which supports elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Duffy is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Duffy's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.9% houses and 12.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to the Australian Capital Territory's 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Duffy stood at 37.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.3% and rented dwellings at 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,476, higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,080. The median weekly rent in Duffy was $445, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $450. Nationally, Duffy's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,476 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Duffy features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.3% of all households, including 37.2% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 20.3% and group households making up 3.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Duffy shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Duffy, the percentage of residents aged 15 and above with university qualifications is 46.7%, surpassing Australia's national average of 30.4%. This indicates a significant educational advantage for the area, positioning it favourably for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 26.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 14.5% and graduate diplomas at 6.2%. Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 25.9% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas at 11.0% and certificates at 14.9%.

Educational participation is notably high in Duffy, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 6.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Duffy has 28 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 71 different routes that together facilitate 5,540 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 162 meters from the nearest stop. As a mainly residential area, most commuters travel outwards. Cars remain the primary mode of transport for 89% of residents, while buses are used by 6%, and cycling by 3%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling in Duffy, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.7% of residents work from home, a figure that might be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 791 trips per day, equating to approximately 197 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Duffy is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Duffy shows superior health outcomes as per AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Both young and elderly cohorts exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover stands at approximately 60% of Duffy's total population of 2,078 people. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (affecting 8.3% of residents) and arthritis (impacting 8.1%). A significant majority, 68.9%, report being entirely free from medical ailments, compared to the Australian Capital Territory average of 70.2%. Under-65s in Duffy exhibit better-than-average health outcomes. The area has a senior population (aged 65 and over) comprising 15.1% of residents (518 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Duffy records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Duffy's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 21.1% born overseas and 15.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Duffy, accounting for 42.7%. However, Judaism is overrepresented compared to the Australian Capital Territory, comprising 0.4% versus 0.2%.

The top three ancestral groups are Australian (26.7%), English (26.4%), and Irish (9.3%). Notably, Hungarian (0.8%) and Polish (1.5%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively, while Welsh is slightly higher at 0.9% versus the region's 0.6%.

Duffy's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Duffy's median age is 38 years, which is higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 but equal to the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Duffy has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (16.7%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.4%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, younger residents caused the median age to decrease by 1.2 years to 38. Key changes include the growth of the 5-14 age group from 13.6% to 16.7% of the population, and the increase of the 35-44 cohort from 13.6% to 15.9%. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort decreased from 8.9% to 7.0%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 11.5% to 9.9%. Population forecasts for Duffy in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to increase by 49 people (10%) from 481 to 531, while both the 55-64 and 25-34 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.