Duffy

An assessment of population growth drivers in Duffy reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the estimated population of Duffy as of May 2026 is around 3,514. This reflects an increase of 119 people (3.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,395 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,514, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 10 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,255 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Duffy's 3.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (1.9%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections, with 2022 as a base, are adopted. Considering the projected demographic shifts, lower quartile growth of statistical areas across the nation is anticipated, with the suburb expected to increase by 83 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 2.4% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Duffy according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Duffy has seen approximately 5 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 28 homes. So far in FY-26, 6 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 5.6 new residents arrive per year for each dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating supply is lagging demand, which typically results in heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average construction value of new homes is $331,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments.

In this financial year, $209,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to residential. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Duffy has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places among the 16th percentile of areas assessed nationally, offering more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings. This reflects market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 50.0% detached dwellings and 50.0% attached dwellings, creating affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shows a considerable shift from the current housing mix, which is currently 88.0% houses, possibly due to reduced availability of development sites addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Duffy has around 981 people per approval, indicating a mature, established area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Duffy is expected to grow by 83 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Duffy has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

No changes can significantly influence a region's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. A total of zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Molonglo Group Centre to Town Centre Transition, Fetherston Weston, Deakin Private Hospital, and Ngurra Cultural Precinct, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

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Employment performance in Duffy has been broadly consistent with national averages

Duffy has a highly educated workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. As of December 2025, its unemployment rate is 4.0%. Over the past year, employment levels have remained stable.

In comparison, the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) unemployment rate is 3.8%. Duffy's workforce participation is slightly lower at 67.9%, compared to ACT's 70.5%. According to Census responses, 14.7% of residents work from home.

The key industries for employment among residents are public administration & safety, professional & technical services, and health care & social assistance. However, the accommodation & food sector employs only 5.0% of local workers, lower than ACT's 6.5%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels in Duffy remained stable at 0.0%, while the labour force increased by 1.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, ACT saw employment rise by 0.9% and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicate that national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Duffy's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The median taxpayer income in Duffy is $70,808, with an average of $84,236 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. Nationally, this is extremely high compared to the Australian Capital Territory's median income of $72,206 and average income of $85,981. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.44% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $78,200 (median) and $93,030 (average). Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Duffy rank highly nationally, between the 92nd and 93rd percentiles. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 31.6% of Duffy's community (1,110 individuals), consistent with broader trends across the broader area showing 34.3% in the same category. Economic strength is evident through 43.3% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Duffy is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Duffy's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.9% houses and 12.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Australian Capital Territory's 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Duffy was at 37.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.3% and rented ones at 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,476, higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,080. The median weekly rent figure in Duffy was $445, compared to Australian Capital Territory's $450. Nationally, Duffy's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Duffy features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 77.3% of all households, including 37.2% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 20.3% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Duffy shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Duffy, 46.7% of residents aged 15 and above have university qualifications, exceeding the Australian average of 30.4%. This high educational attainment is led by bachelor degrees (26.0%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.5%) and graduate diplomas (6.2%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 25.9% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (14.9%). Educational participation is notably high, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.5% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 6.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Duffy has 28 active public transport stops, all bus services. These stops are served by 71 routes, offering a total of 5,540 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is excellent, with residents located an average of 162 meters from the nearest stop. Most commuters travel outward due to Duffy's residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode at 89%, followed by buses at 6% and cycling at 3%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 791 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 197 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Duffy is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Duffy shows better-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Both younger and older age groups have a low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is exceptionally high, with approximately 60% of the total population (2,124 people). The most common medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 8.3 and 8.1% of residents respectively. 68.9% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.2% across Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes for the under-65 population are better than average. The area has 15.4% of residents aged 65 and over (541 people), higher than the 14.3% in Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Duffy records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Duffy's cultural diversity is above average, with 21.1% of its population born overseas and 15.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Duffy, comprising 42.7% of the population. However, Judaism is overrepresented in Duffy compared to the Australian Capital Territory, with 0.4% versus 0.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (26.7%), English (26.4%), and Irish (9.3%). Hungarian, Polish, and Welsh ethnic groups are notably overrepresented in Duffy compared to regional averages: Hungarian at 0.8% versus 0.3%, Polish at 1.5% versus 0.8%, and Welsh at 0.9% versus 0.6%.

Duffy's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

At 38 years, Duffy's median age is somewhat higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35, while equivalent to the Australian median of 38. Relative to Australian Capital Territory, Duffy has a higher concentration of 5-14 residents at 15.6%, but fewer 25-34 year-olds at 10.7%. Between the 2021 Census and present day, the 5-14 age group grew from 13.6% to 15.6%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 13.6% to 15.3%. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort declined from 8.9% to 6.9%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 15.3% to 14.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Duffy's age profile will evolve significantly. The 45-54 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 10%, adding 52 residents to reach 551. In contrast, both 55-64 and 25-34 age groups are projected to see reduced numbers.