Duffy

An assessment of population growth drivers in Duffy reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Duffy statistical area (Lv2) is around 3,434 people. This figure reflects an increase of 39 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 3,395 people in the Duffy (SA2). The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 3,429 residents as of June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS and validation of an additional 10 new addresses since the Census date. This population level results in a density ratio of 1,226 persons per square kilometer, surpassing the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Duffy (SA2) experienced a growth rate of 1.1% between the 2021 Census and Nov 2025, outperforming the SA3 area's growth rate of 0.5%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains in the recent period for this area.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections, using 2022 as a base, are adopted. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the Duffy (SA2) is anticipated to increase by 88 persons to reach an estimated population of 3,522 by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 2.4% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Duffy according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Duffy has seen around 5 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 28 homes between FY-21 and FY-25. So far in FY-26, 6 approvals have been recorded. On average, 5.5 new residents arrive per dwelling constructed annually during this period.

Supply is lagging demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $331,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. In FY-26, $209,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Duffy has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places among the 16th percentile of areas assessed nationally, offering limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings. New development consists of 50.0% detached dwellings and 50.0% attached dwellings, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 88.0% houses.

Duffy has around 981 people per approval, indicating a mature, established area. Looking ahead, Duffy is expected to grow by 83 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development patterns continue, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Duffy has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are expected to impact this area. Notable projects include Molonglo Group Centre to Town Centre Transition, Fetherston Weston, Deakin Private Hospital, and Ngurra Cultural Precinct, with the following list outlining those most relevant.

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Employment performance in Duffy has been broadly consistent with national averages

Duffy has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 3.6%, reflecting stability over the past year according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of September 2025, 1,809 residents are employed, aligning with the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) unemployment rate of 3.6%. Workforce participation stands at 66.5%, slightly below ACT's 69.6%. Key industries for employment among residents are public administration & safety, professional & technical services, and health care & social assistance.

Conversely, accommodation & food services employ only 5.0% of local workers compared to ACT's 6.5%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population versus resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.3%, labour force grew by 0.9%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.5 percentage points, contrasting with ACT's employment growth of 1.4% and unemployment fall of 0.2%. As of 25-Nov-25, ACT employment grew year-on-year by 1.19% (adding 710 jobs), with an unemployment rate of 4.5%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's May-25 national employment forecasts project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Duffy's employment mix suggests local employment growth of 6.5% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The suburb of Duffy has a median taxpayer income of $70,808 and an average income of $84,236 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Nationally, these figures are extremely high, contrasting with the Australian Capital Territory's median income of $72,206 and average income of $85,981. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.26% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $77,365 (median) and $92,036 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family, and personal incomes all rank highly in Duffy, between the 92nd and 93rd percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that 31.6% of the community (1,085 individuals) earn between $1,500 - 2,999 annually, consistent with broader trends across the broader area showing 34.3% in the same category. Economic strength emerges through 43.3% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Duffy is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Duffy, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 87.9% houses and 12.1% other dwellings. In comparison, Australian Capital Territory had 81.7% houses and 18.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Duffy was 37.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.3% and rented dwellings at 19.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Duffy was $2,476, compared to Australian Capital Territory's average of $2,251. Median weekly rent in Duffy was $445, while the Australian Capital Territory average was $420. Nationally, Duffy's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $2,476 than the Australian average of $1,863. Duffy's median weekly rent figure was $445, substantially above the national average of $375.

Duffy features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.3% of all households, including 37.2% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.7%, with lone person households at 20.3% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.6.

Duffy shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Duffy is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15+, 46.7% hold university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 26.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.5%) and graduate diplomas (6.2%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 25.9% of residents holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (14.9%).

Educational participation is high in Duffy, with 30.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 6.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 28 active stops operating in Duffy, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 71 routes, facilitating 5,540 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 162 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 791 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 197 weekly trips per individual stop.

Duffy's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows positive outcomes for Duffy residents.

The prevalence of common health conditions is low across both younger and older age groups. Approximately 60% of the total population (2,076 people) have private health cover, which is exceptionally high. The most common medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 8.3% and 8.1% of residents respectively. A total of 68.9% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 66.3% across the Australian Capital Territory. There are 525 people aged 65 and over in Duffy, which is 15.3% of the population, lower than the 20.6% in the Australian Capital Territory. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, similar to the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Duffy records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Duffy's cultural diversity is notable, with 21.1% of its population born overseas and 15.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Duffy, accounting for 42.7%. While the overall percentage of Judaism is low, it is higher in Duffy (0.4%) compared to the Australian Capital Territory average (0.2%).

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (26.7%), English (26.4%), and Irish (9.3%). Some ethnic groups have notable representation differences: Hungarian at 0.8% in Duffy versus 0.6% regionally, Polish at 1.5% versus 0.9%, and Welsh at 0.9% versus 0.7%.

Duffy's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Duffy's median age is 38 years, which is higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 but equivalent to the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Duffy has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.7%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, younger residents caused the median age to decrease by one year to 38. Key demographic shifts include an increase in the 5-14 age group from 13.6% to 16.2%, and a rise in the 35-44 cohort from 13.6% to 15.4%. Conversely, the 65-74 age group declined from 8.9% to 7.3%, and the 45-54 group decreased from 15.3% to 14.0%. Population forecasts for Duffy indicate significant demographic changes by 2041. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to increase by 50 people (10%), from 480 to 531, while both the 65-74 and 55-64 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.