Tumbarumba

Tumbarumba is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As per AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated by them, the estimated population of Tumbarumba as of February 2026 is around 1987. This reflects an increase of 72 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1915. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1882 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 37 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 8.6 persons per square kilometer. Tumbarumba's growth rate of 3.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.9%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 94.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the suburb's population is expected to decline by 1 person by 2041. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to expand by 47 people.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Tumbarumba, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Tumbarumba had 16 dwelling approvals over five years ending in 2021. This results in an average of three new dwellings approved annually, reflecting the modest housing needs typical of rural areas. The limited construction activity is largely due to local demand and infrastructure capacity.

Notably, the small number of approvals can significantly impact annual growth statistics. Tumbarumba's construction activity is significantly lower than that of Rest of NSW and below national averages. Recent building activity consists solely of standalone homes, aligning with rural living preferences for space and privacy. The estimated population per dwelling approval in Tumbarumba is 775 people, indicating a quiet development environment.

With a stable or declining population expected, Tumbarumba may experience reduced housing pressure, potentially presenting buying opportunities.

Tumbarumba has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No infrastructure changes are known to impact this area currently. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially influential. Notable initiatives include the Tumut River Works Program, HumeLink, Riverina Redevelopment Program, and Olympic Highway Safety Improvements, with the following projects being most relevant.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.5%, Tumbarumba has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Tumbarumba has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent. The unemployment rate is 3.5%, as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation in December 2025.

There are 834 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.5% lower than Regional NSW's 3.9%. Workforce participation stands at 53.9%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. According to Census responses, only 7.6% of residents work from home. The dominant employment sectors are manufacturing, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and public administration & safety.

Manufacturing is particularly strong, with an employment share 2.8 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance is under-represented at 9.4%, compared to Regional NSW's 16.9%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Over December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 3.1% and employment fell by 3.5%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment contract by 1.2%, labour force fall by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tumbarumba's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 4.8% over five years and 11.1% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 reports Tumbarumba's median income among taxpayers at $46,741 and average at $56,360. This is lower than national averages. Regional NSW's median is $52,390 with an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 are approximately $50,882 (median) and $61,353 (average). Census 2021 income data shows Tumbarumba's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 17th and 24th percentiles nationally. The $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band captures 29.8% of Tumbarumba residents (592 individuals), similar to regional levels at 29.9%. Housing costs are modest with 89.4% of income retained, ranking total disposable income at the 23rd percentile nationally.

Tumbarumba is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Tumbarumba, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 96.7% houses and 3.3% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Regional NSW's dwelling structure which was 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings at the same Census date. Home ownership in Tumbarumba stood at 46.1%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 28.2% and rented dwellings making up 25.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Tumbarumba was $1,165 as of this date, significantly lower than the Regional NSW average of $1,733 and the national average of $1,863. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure for Tumbarumba was recorded at $220, substantially below the Regional NSW figure of $330 and the national figure of $375.

Tumbarumba features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.5% of all households, including 20.6% couples with children, 35.0% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.5%, with lone person households at 30.0% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Tumbarumba faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has educational challenges with university qualification rates at 13.9%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.5%, followed by graduate diplomas at 1.8% and postgraduate qualifications at 1.6%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 8.1% and certificates at 30.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tumbarumba has 78 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are covered by 14 routes, providing 1,243 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is good with residents typically living 209 meters from the nearest stop. Most commutes are outward-bound due to Tumbarumba's residential nature. Cars are the dominant transport mode at 90%, with 8% walking. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.5.

According to the 2021 Census, 7.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 177 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 15 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Tumbarumba is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tumbarumba faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age groups exhibit high prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is relatively low in Tumbarumba at approximately 49% (around 978 people), compared to Regional NSW's 51.9%.

Nationally, the average private health cover is 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 11.5% and 10.0% of residents respectively. However, 59.0% of Tumbarumba residents claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to Regional NSW's 63.3%. Working-age population health is particularly challenging due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 31.3% (621 people), compared to Regional NSW's 23.4%. Senior health outcomes present notable challenges, ranking even higher than the general population nationally.

Tumbarumba is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tumbarumba had a cultural diversity below average, with 90.2% citizens, 90.6% born in Australia, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, at 63.8%, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestral groups were Australian (32.3%), English (30.1%), and Scottish (9%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal (5.5%) was overrepresented in Tumbarumba versus regionally (4.6%), as were German (4.9% vs 3.1%) and Maori (0.6% vs 0.3%).

Tumbarumba hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Tumbarumba's median age is 47 years, which is significantly higher than Regional NSW's average of 43 and substantially exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent at 16.6%, while the 25-34 group is smaller at 8.3% compared to Regional NSW. This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is well above the national average of 9.5%. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of Tumbarumba's population aged 65-74 has grown from 13.7% to 16.6%, while those aged 15-24 increased from 9.1% to 10.8%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 14.4% to 12.0%, and the 25-34 group dropped from 9.8% to 8.3%. By 2041, Tumbarumba's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 85+ group will grow by 23 people, reaching 110 from 89, and those aged 65 and above will comprise 83% of projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 0-4 age groups.